Global Economy Faces Early Contagion: Rationing, Price Spikes, Policy Shocks
Headlines & tweets about talks & deals are NOISE at this point THE SIGNAL is rationing, price spikes, policy interventions, & rising stress in import-dependent economies We're in the early stage of CONTAGION This time it's not a novel virus It's a heart attack of the global economy #Oil #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #SupplyShock #OOTT #Geopolitics #Markets
Hormuz Closure Threatens Systemic Oil Supply Collapse
This is not a normal supply shock—it’s a systemic break, writes @Rory_Johnston You don’t replace Hormuz with bypass pipelines, SPR releases & sanction waivers You either reopen it—or break the system Markets are betting on a quick fix—but reality says otherwise. https://t.co/J4ZbSY2K9u #Oil #Hormuz...
11 Days of Delay Add 400M Barrels Lost
Time is irreversible damage Trump has kicked the can till April 6 11 more days of disruption = 120MM additional barrels shut in ==>cumulative losses ~400MM, notes @ericnuttall That’s how a “temporary” disruption becomes a lasting supply shock. #Oil #Hormuz #SupplyShock #EnergyCrisis #Inventories...
Cyclone Cuts Australian LNG Output, Hits Global Supply
Another blow to the global LNG market 🚢🚨 🇦🇺 Three Australian LNG export plants (which provide ~8% of the world’s supply) have had output curbed by a cyclone ⚠️ Some offshore gas platforms were knocked offline by the big storm https://t.co/pnn7NiguUr
Tight Copper, Aluminium Supply Set to Boost Prices Through 2026
ING expects tight copper and aluminium supply to support prices into 2026 amid tariffs, weak mine output, and power constraints. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/tight-copper-and-aluminium-supply-keeps.html
Wells Fargo Forecasts Gold Surpassing $6,000 by Year‑end
Gold seen well above $6,000 by year-end despite recent struggles, Wells Fargo says $GLD @seekingalpha https://t.co/aUuFstZJDx
Iran Ships 1.5M Barrels Daily, Prices Surge
four weeks in, iran continues to export oil through the strait of hormuz. 1.5 million barrels a day, at significantly higher prices than before the war.
Oil Market Shows Growing Numbness to Political Hype
AND THE JAWBONE Crude "only" fell ~$4.50/bbl on the latest Trump post, which is less than 1/3 of the pullback he got on Monday, and the rout was reversed much more quickly. Oil market getting more numb to the nonsense. https://t.co/rgoe9w20zI
Nitrogen Fertilizers Hit Hard as Gas Prices Surge
Potash and phosphate-based fertilizers remain mostly unaffected, but nitrogen-based fertilizers that rely on natural gas are the problem. Global urea and ammonia supplies are already being hit hard. #fertilizer #foodsupply #geopolitics https://t.co/LaLbS7VyH1
Crude Oil Surges 20% Recently, 9% Daily Spike
Crude oil is up 20% in the last few weeks. Oil prices rose 9% in a single day.
Export Ban Cuts Gasoline, Spurs Diesel, Jet Fuel Surge
The US has been toying with the idea of a US oil export ban. This might briefly lower gasoline prices in the US, but it would drive up diesel and jet fuel costs and worsen the overall energy shock. ANOTHER HAIRBRAIN IDEA...
U.S. Gas Prices Plunge: Permian Negative
While the world panics about the loss of Qatari LNG, your reminder that nat gas prices in the Permian (Waha hub) had been negative for 35 consecutive trading days — and counting. And that Henry Hub is at ~$3 per...
War Prolongs Oil Price Surge Despite SPR Release
With Brent crude around $109, following the decision to release 400 million barrels from the SPR, along with waivers for Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil entering the market, the path is clear: The longer the war drags on, the higher...
Venezuela's Oil Output Limited to 300k Bpd by 2026
My view in the @EpochTimes on Pres. Trump's move on Venezuelan oil: “VEN remains a wild card... its output gains will likely be modest [in 2026], ~300,000 barrels/day, due to deep structural damage in the soft & hard infrastructure of VEN’s...
Treasury Claims Ample Oil, IEA Taps Strategic Reserves
“The oil market is well-supplied” — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. (… that’s quite a statement after the International Energy Agency had to make the largest ever use of his member’s strategic petroleum reserves…)
Gas Supply Disruptions Instantly Ripple Through Energy Markets
"When there are supply disruptions in gas, the impact is immediate in energy markets." https://t.co/9SSDq5hVSn
Gas Prices Surge 32%, Hitting Stretched Consumers
Gas was $2.93/gallon a month ago. It's $3.88 now. That's a 32% jump. The consumer was already stretched. Now they're paying it at the pump. Inflation isn't just a Fed problem. It's a kitchen table problem. $SPY $XLE https://t.co/eyD0h4taV8
US‑Canada Crude Surplus Fuels Dec26 WTI Spike
Growing US, Canada Crude and Fuel Surplus - When the December 2026 (Dec26) WTI crude future started trading in 2017, the US and Canada had a supply-demand deficit near 1 million barrels a day (MMb/d). Now it's a roughly 7 MMb/d...
Krugman Explains Economic Impact of Iran Oil Embargo
If you're interested in what an Iran oil embargo means, how it would work, how it would be enforced, how high oil prices might rise as a result, what would happen to Iran's economy, I discussed all this with @paulkrugman...
Global Fuel Crisis Shows Renewables Are Only Exit
Renewables are the only exit strategy: Day 27 update of the structural heart attack currently taking down the fossil fuel system ➡️India: PANIC. Long queues at petrol pumps nationwide, total dry-out risk up. 9 days of reserves left. Restaurants shut in...
North America’s Self‑sufficiency Fuels Massive Oil Profits
Goldman is onto something important here. This is not your grandfather’s oil crisis. It won’t be felt as a supply shock across the Atlantic because North America is a self-sufficient producer. It also means US and Canadian oil companies are about...
Oil Prices Near $100 Amid Overoptimistic Peace Hopes
Brent crude nearing $100. Citi's CIO says markets show "excessive optimism" on peace. Iran rejected the latest US proposal. 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. "Excessive optimism" is a polite way of saying: priced wrong. $OIL $XLE $SPY https://t.co/9YTglnhd8a
Brent Near $108, Awaiting White House Price‑Cut Signal
Brent is close to $108. Will we hear a statement from the White House today that brings back to low $90s? 😉
Break‑even WTI Price Needed to Cover Well Costs
What WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells? @DallasFed via @macrolutzie https://t.co/5sVYLcuBRm
Import Prices Surge 2.8%, Tariff Burden Shifts to US
"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd
Copper Miners and Prices Dip, Bottom Forming?
Copper Miners $COPX vs Price of Copper $COPPER. Down today but looks like it's hammering out a bottom. https://t.co/CCHLPeGBwv
Export Sales Far Exceed USDA Weekly Targets
Pretty solid export sales #corn 47.9 mb. Needed each week to meet current USDA projections 23.2 mb. #Soybean export sales 24.6. Needed each week to meet current USDA projections 8.3 mb.
Brent Spot Tightness Near All‑Time High Amid Supply Fight
BRENT SPOT SO TIGHT Dated-to-Frontline (DFL) Brent crude oil timespread is currently sitting just shy of last week's all-time high, and if we closed here we'd finish at a fresh daily ATH. Signals extreme tightness in North Sea spot crude markets amidst...
US Export Sales Beat Forecast; Mexico Leads Corn, Soy
🇺🇸U.S. export sales met or exceeded expectations last week. Mexico and Colombia led in corn sales, and Germany and Mexico were the leaders in soybeans for new outright sales (China topped net sales, and those were due to a switch...
Gold Holds Despite Rising Real Yields—Warning Sign
Gold at $4,560. Real yields still elevated. Gold is supposed to fall when real yields rise. It's not falling. That's not a hedge. That's a warning. $GLD $TLT $SPY https://t.co/eAdLleClyB
RBOB Futures at $2.21 Forecast $3.15 Pump Price
March 2027 RBOB gasoline futures $2.21, implying $3.15 at the pump by the winter https://t.co/TkEv0pc6Zf
Blockade Risks Spike Prices, Yet Market Already Priced In
Key pushback to a blockade is that it might spike oil prices. Iran's 2 million barrels per day could spike oil prices by 20% if they go offline, but - with Brent already up 60% from before the war -...
Premarket VIX Spikes Far Beyond Oil Movement
Using premarket marks, this is Crude (USO) vs VIX. You can see the AM VIX move is high relative to the move in oil (red dot). Black dots are last 5 days. https://t.co/ZgBEOTzNOF
Taiwan Spends $600M Extra as LNG Prices Double
Taiwan spent an extra $600 million to secure LNG through June to replace lost Qatari supply 🇹🇼 💰 Taiwan’s Economic Minister said spot LNG prices are “about twice as high as long-term contract prices with Qatar” The island depends more on gas...
Fuel Subsidies Breed Artificial Shortages, Warns President Nanggaw
ONE thing President @edmnangagwa understood very early in his presidency is that SUBSIDIES create ARTIFICIAL SHORTAGES. Countries with fuel subsidies are already experiencing MASSIVE SHORTAGES… https://t.co/bpI2xgOqg6
White House Predicts Lower Gas Prices via Trump’s Oil Push
"We're going to see prices at the pump go back down," says White House's Karoline Leavit Trump's prioritization of domestic oil production will to it, she says Just like Drill, Baby, Drill that never happened for the last 15 months? You don’t offset...
Gulf Crisis Could Cripple Energy Markets Until 2027
The FAT TAIL for the Persian Gulf crisis Prolonged energy disruption & economic dislocation THRU 2027, says @ProfessorKaren That assumes the conflict is resolved in April or May
Iraq's Oil Output Falls as Storage Fills, Exports Stall
Oil production in Iraq down again because storage tanks are filling up and the country can't export. https://t.co/tyEDWv8Trb
Deal Won’t Quickly Restore Kuwait Oil Production
Even if a “deal” happens tomorrow, the damage doesn’t reset Kuwait Petroleum says full production recovery takes 3–4 months A ceasefire is just the start of a long, uneven rebuild #Oil #Kuwait #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #SupplyShock #Geopolitics #OOTT #Markets
Oil's Percentage Rise Varies by Currency Unit
Intro econ for NYT reporters, oil was priced in yen it would be going up more in percentage terms in yen than it is going up in percentage terms in dollars. The unit is just a convention https://t.co/zCOwmbyJQv
Gas Prices Spike, Heralding Inflation Tsunami Ahead
Gasoline is telling you what this war really means. Up $1.00 a gallon in just 25 days. It's the first wave of the coming tsunami of inflation #GasPrices #Oil #Inflation #EnergyCrisis #Iran #Hormuz #Economy #Geopolitics #War #OOTT
Russia Halts Fertilizer Exports, Leveraging 40% Market Share
Russia stopped exports of ammonium nitrate through April to ensure domestic supply during planting season. Russia controls a massive portion of global trade in ammonium nitrate at about 40%. IT LOOKS LIKE MOSCOW IS SAYING SANCTIONS WILL HAVE TO GIVE OR FERTILIZER...
Asia's Energy Shock: War Disrupts Middle Eastern Supply
Good morning, We are in Day 26 of the war and Asia is reeling from the conflict as we are most dependent on Middle oil and gas. Let's talk about how Asia is affected by this conflict, a thread. You can...
US Examines $200 Oil Price Shock Impact on Economy
US officials are examining what a potential spike in oil prices as high as $200 a barrel would mean for the economy, sources tell @hlowenkron @SalehaMohsin and me, a sign of studying possible fallout from extreme scenarios for the #Iran...
Grid Batteries and Electrification Ease Gas Shortfall Concerns
Gas shortfall fears pushed out again as grid battery boom and electrification take fresh bite from demand #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/SIHv5tanVT https://t.co/F4npGu5RMq
U.S. Diesel and Jet Fuel Stocks Near Record Lows
Will U.S. diesel and jet fuel inventories decline to historic lows? US Weekly Oil Data: US Inventories, Exports, Imports, and Refinery Utilization (12 Charts). Link: https://t.co/9fNzVH20GN
Gold Drops 16% Despite War‑driven Inflation Fears
Gold plunged 16% after the war started. It should have surged on inflation fears and geopolitical chaos. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/sTSAg9gVNz
Philippines Declares Emergency over Soaring Oil Prices
The Philippines have declared a NATIONAL STATE OF EMERGENCY. The Philippines imports 98% of oil from the gulf and gas prices have DOUBLED since the breakout of the Iran war. THE PHILIPPINES SHOULD SEND THE BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/bNdU01nHJI
Japan Minister Discusses War‑Driven Commodity Risks, Seeks Asian Stability
Delighted to meet 🇯🇵’s Minister of Economy, Trade & Industry Ryosei Akazawa @ryosei_akazawa We spoke about how the Middle East war is impacting oil, gas & other commodities, with particular challenges for Asia – and how we can work together...
Silver's Head Shot Hints at Deeper Weakness
The price bar in Silver today is something I call a "head shot." Head shots are often a sign of volume overcoming demand and suggestive of further weakness. I am looking for a tradable bottom in the support zone (yellow) $SI_V...