White House Dismisses Prices, Gas Futures Keep Climbing
$UGA Daily. "You're gonna need a bigger jawbone." White House trying to talk down oil & gasoline prices. But gasoline futures ETF still stretching out higher. https://t.co/vicHCJhxQx
Airlines Face $400M March Fuel Surge, Higher Fares
"Global airlines sounded the alarm ... over soaring jet fuel prices triggered by the US-Israeli war against Iran, warning of hundreds of millions of extra costs, higher fares and cuts to some routes." Delta fuel costs up by $400mn for March...
Closing Hormuz Guarantees Outcome; Only Duration Matters
Keep Hormuz closed long enough and it is a mathematical and logistical certainty. The only debate is "How long is 'long enough' to make that happen?"
RBOB Gasoline Futures Near Last Week’s Spike High
RBOB gasoline futures $3.12 - that's very close to the spike high Sunday night last week https://t.co/x2eJ04zPio
Higher Oil Prices Trigger Demand Collapse, Recession, Fed Cuts
Actually Higher Oil Prices, cause Demand destruction that causes recession that causes Fed to cut
Oil Hitting $125 Could Reshape Global Economy
Oil prices climbing to $125 could shift the global economic outlook – Morgan Stanley’s Seth Carpenter @seekingalpha https://t.co/W6t7v236nu
Jawboning Can Crush Oil Futures, Physical Markets Needed
Oil futures having a hard time rising much in anticipation of the scarcity barreling down toward us all when—as we saw last week—jawboning can dump prices by $10 and blow folks out We'll need physical markets to drag paper barrels to...
Oil Chart Hints at Rising Inflation Pressures
$USO There's a lot going on behind the CL chart, lots of inflationary stuff we will see as the year goes on https://t.co/QQRYWzhzi2
Pakistan Faces Highest Energy Risk if Hormuz Closes
Pakistan looks like the Asian energy importer that is most at risk because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/7rDXmrxVqy
China‑US Summit Delayed, Soy Market Hopes Stall
🇺🇸🇨🇳Trump says they are "resetting" the meeting with China that was supposed to occur March 31-April 2. That's now been pushed 5-6 weeks out, putting it around April 21 - 28. Ag markets had been hoping the meeting would result in more...
Big Oil Uses Doom Forecasts as Lobbying Tool
Big oil has its prophets of doom. When it's unhappy, it trots them out to prophesy doom. One such forecast in 2022 was oil would hit $380 because of the G7 price cap. This is lobbying on behalf of big...
Rising Tanker Traffic Could Shrink Brent's War‑driven Risk Premium
Great piece by @MelissaLawford in @Telegraph on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and what's going on in global markets. Brent is up 42% from before the war, a big risk premium. As oil tanker traffic picks up, this...
Atlanta Residents Share This Week's Gas Prices
If you live in Atlanta, what prices have you seen this week for gas? I’m trying to see something 👀👀
Brent up 42%, Now Mirrors Post‑Ukraine Invasion Levels
The Brent oil price is up 42% from before the war. This shock has spilled over into all kinds of other things, but what spot and options now markets price (blue) is basically on par with what we saw after...
Global LNG Market Visualized in New Interactive Map
Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay at Phenomenal World posted this nice map of the global LNG market. It's featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/hQaQMt4GjH
China’s Fuel Ban Strains Regional Supply, Sparks Contract Disputes
China's fuel export ban last week is already rippling through the region. Bangladesh, which relies on Chinese diesel and jet fuel, has come out and asked Beijing to honour its contracts. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China...
Pakistan Faces LNG Shortage Within a Month
Pakistan’s LNG supply at risk of running out in less than a month 🇵🇰 🚢 Officials warn that there may not be enough gas to meet power needs after April 14 Pakistan imports 99% of its LNG from Qatar. But supplies...
Iran Conflict Spikes Fertilizer Costs, Deepening Farmers' Woes
"Minnesota corn farmers withstood a trade war. The war in Iran is the next cost challenge. The conflict is increasing the cost of an essential fertilizer. With corn prices already down, it’s another financial headache for farmers." https://t.co/NT2pX8mfN9
US Refining Margins Nearly Double, 3‑2‑1 Crack Hits $40
U.S. REFINERS’ gross margin for transforming crude oil into gasoline and diesel has almost doubled since the start of the year as the war in the Middle East hits global fuel supplies even harder than crude oil availability. Stylised margins...
Brent's 120‑to‑40 Cycle May Be Ending
Brent Crude's Pattern: $120 Highs Lead to $40 Lows - Brent crude price surges to $120 a barrel have been resolved near $40 for about two decades. Has that pattern changed? This key macroeconomic question of 2026 may be guided...
War’s End Won’t Instantly Revive Commodity Output
I think the most dangerous thing that I see in markets currently is this assumption that, as soon as the war ends, commodity production will just switch back on again. It won’t. It can’t. Commodity production is not like a manufacturing...
Iran Tensions Spike Oil Volatility, Brent‑WTI Spread Hits 3‑year High
The headlines around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are flipping daily, which is keeping #oil volatility (realized and implied) elevated. Meanwhile, the Brent-WTI spread has jumped back near its highest in 3 years. https://t.co/h3S81SQWjn
US Diesel Prices Surge Past $5, Fueling Freight Inflation
CHART OF THE DAY: US retail average diesel prices have topped the $5-per-gallon barrier for the 2nd time ever. That’s freight inflation — and another big hit to the country’s farming economy (and it has received many hit since...
US Gas Prices YTD Rise Exceeds 2022 Levels
🇺🇸 The year-to-date increase in US gasoline prices is now larger than in 2022. https://t.co/2FtHzNrQpA
Oil Slides as Iran Opens Hormuz, Markets Rally
Crude oil prices ticked down after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all but its "enemies", lifting stocks and pulling down the US dollar. Is the crisis ending? #oil #IranWar #stocks #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/1OST27OxI9
Iran Hikes Oil Price, OPEC Cuts, Shipments Flow
The Iranians ramped the price of oil, forced OPEC to shut in a bunch of barrels, and are still shipping theirs with no issues… Seriously, tell me the boys at Vitol aren’t watching this move in awe…🤣
Brent Drops Sharply; Hormuz Ship Theory Seems Dubious
I am normally not a big fan of conspiracy theories to explain market phenomena. But #Brent futures slid from an intraday high of just over $106 to settle at $100.21 on Monday. The only “explanation” I can find is “because some...
Soy‑corn Ratio Hits Two‑month Low, Prompting Acreage Shift
📉The new-crop soybean-corn ratio has hit a two-month low (closer to corn-favoring territory), so will U.S. farmers go easier on the presumed corn ➡️ bean acreage switching? The 2022 ratio move didn't exactly buy corn acres. Fert prices are the obvious...
China Curbs Fertilizer Exports, Iran War Spikes Global Prices
"China is tightening its curbs on fertilizer exports as the war in Iran disrupts trade of key crop nutrients, driving up prices globally." https://t.co/X35yEEwYZH
Gas Prices May Not Drop, Warns Chris Wright
Chris Wright: ‘There’s No Guarantee’ Gas Prices Will Come Down #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/5uYwIoPK6a https://t.co/dvezbMMNE9
Venezuela's Oil Gains From Hormuz Shutdown, Spiking Prices
Well that’s one way to Make Venezuela’s Oil Great Again…by shutting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing oil prices into the $90s and $100s https://t.co/0dXdhaPaQ6
Brent Drops Again, Risk Premium Already Overpriced
Today marks the second Monday in a row where - after a weekend with lots of alarmist talk about how high prices will go - Brent has fallen. That tells you a big risk premium is priced and it's not...
Massive Saudi Arab Light Tanker Flotilla Heads to Asia
LINK: https://t.co/Iz3LToWVCF A flotilla of Oil Tankers Carrying Saudi Arab Light Crude to Asia Map form @Kpler
India Vulnerable to Soaring Oil Prices From US‑Israel Conflict
My take on the effect of the US-Israel war on India: "It will hit India particularly hard if the price of oil hits $120 / barrel or $200 / barrel because India is the third largest oil importer in the world."...
OPEC+ Shutdown Nears 8.5 MMbpd Amid Iran Conflict
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 Latest OPEC+ production data heading into the Iran War, as well as estimates of how much production has already been shut in across the Gulf By my tally we're currently sitting at ~8.5 MMbpd confirmed shut it, with...
U.S. Gas Prices Surge 25% Since War Began
Gas in the U.S. is now up 25% since the war began and 21% from a year ago. Source: WSJ
Stable BDI Masks Looming Freight Spike From Ship Shortage
The long-term history of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the benchmark measure of global dry bulk freight rates. It tracks what it costs to ship commodities like: * Iron ore * Coal * Grain * Bauxite * Steel inputs Because these commodities sit at the very beginning...
Oil Spike Fuels Inflation, Keeps Fed From Cutting
The US-Iran conflict pushed oil past $100 a barrel. This is going to keep inflation elevated. Elevated inflation stops the Fed from cutting, which isn’t good for risk assets. I don’t see a super cycle this year only lower lows as stated many...
US‑China Talks Trigger Sharp Drop in May Soybeans
📉CBOT May soybeans have plunged the daily 70-cent trading limit after weekend U.S.-China talks - touted as successful - were viewed unfavorably (possible Trump-Xi meeting delay, mention of non-soybean row crop purchases). CBOT May bean oil was also limit down....
LNG Shutdown Threatens 1.8 B in Three Poorest Nations
I’ll be presenting this slide during a speech tomorrow to the Texas Agricultural Cooperative Council. Three of the world’s poorest countries — combined population: 1.8B people — will be hammered by the shutdown of LNG shipments through the Strait of...
Oil Rebound, Flattening Curve Boost Equities; Watch $94 Oil
Oil shock is reversing (Strait clearing narrative), curve flattening continues (rate hikes priced in), credit widening (HY spread breakout), and rent collapse vindicates office REIT pressure. De-escalation moves favor equities; watch if $94 oil holds or bounces.
32% Oil Supply Lost; Rerouting Covers Only Fraction
💥 We lost about 32% of world traded crude oil supplies. 💥 Rerouting and SPR may cover up to 40% of it AT BEST. Anyone who thinks the rest of the oil industry can stretch its production to cover the GAP knows...
Future Oil Prices Lag Spot Gains, Threatening Well Profitability
"Dan Pickering...said that while the spot market price for oil was up 65 per cent at $99, it was only up 17 per cent for 2027 and 12 per cent for 2028....not high enough for most producers to get returns...
Gas Hits 2023 High, Stocks Surge Anyway
Gas prices reach highest level since October 2023 as oil holds above $100 per barrel; US stocks jump https://t.co/voUmM6Kcb0
US Feb Soy Crush Hits Record, Beats Estimates
🇺🇸NOPA U.S. crush, Feb. 2026 ▪️208.785 mbu of soybeans ▪️Above all trade estimates (avg was 202.7 mbu) ▪️+17% YOY ▪️Record daily crush rate for any month ▪️Soyoil stocks 2.08 billion lbs ▪️At top end of estimates (avg was 1.928 bln) ▪️+38% YOY; 13yr high for Feb https://t.co/UKXjbnVbZ3
Dubai Crude Tops $150, Fueling Middle East Barrel Scramble
Platts Dubai crude (balance of the month) just broke above $150 per barrel. Extreme scramble for Middle Eastern physical barrels continues. https://t.co/HsxSuMbbVJ
All Offshore Production Offline, some Onshore Wells Shut
"sources have said all offshore production is now offline" Shut-ins also include some onshore wells. https://t.co/3NlzDrbslp
Kuwait Oil Output Drops to 1.3 M Bpd Amid Hormuz Shutdown
BBG: "Kuwait Oil Output Falls to About 1.3m B/D With Hormuz Still Shut" Output down to ~1.3 MMbpd vs 1.6 MMbpd last month. Kuwaiti shut-ins have risen to around 1.3 MMbpd from 0.5 MMbpd last week.
War’s End Won’t End Oil Crisis, LNG Recovery Lags
Ending the war does not mean ending the crisis. We have countries that literally shut down production because their storage is full. To bring back that oil to a pre-crisis level takes time. For [liquified natural gas] in particular, it takes a very...
Trump’s $50 Oil Goal Risks Global Recession
President Trump will get his $50 oil price wish before the elections— but only after triggering a global recession. Or: End the war this week and keep flooding the market with SPR releases in the coming months.