Prolonged Disruptions Will Scar Oil Output, Keep Prices High
This is not good news for an already strained global energy market. The longer this goes on the more long-term damage will be done to oil production that will take markets longer to recover from. Oil prices will not “drop like a rock,” so to speak, when it’s over
Brent Crude Spikes Past $118, Then Eases
“The price of Brent crude surpassed $118 a barrel on Thursday, an increase of nearly 10 percent, but has since pared some of those gains.” https://t.co/Z9YDmbtUW3
War‑time Gold Dips Then Soars: Expect Repeat Rally
Reminder from 2003 Iraq invasion, Gold dipped sharply right after start of war due to margin liquidation despite pre-war rally. Then roared for 7+ years. Today's US-Iran tensions + recent pre war rally = similar early pressure? Margin calls and sell the...
RBOB Futures Signal $4.10 AAA Gas Price Soon
$3.19 RBOB gasoline futures imply $4.10 AAA average gas price in a couple weeks https://t.co/7IwQpsyBoY
Iran Conflict Triggers Gold‑Crude Reversal Signal
Iran War Sparked Gold/Crude Reversion - Significant reversal potential, with a worthy catalyst, may be the takeaway from silver reaching its highest ever vs. copper and crude oil, and from the gold/crude ratio peaking in January. Was the Iran-US conflict...
Middle East LNG Disruption
Disruption of LNG supplies from Middle East showing what an excellent idea it has been from our wonderful political class to run down the North Sea.
2026 Gold and Crude Face Pump‑Then‑Dump Threat
2026 Pump-Then-Dump Risks in Both Gold and Crude - Gold's big green 2026 annual candle to its Jan. 29 high of $5,595 an ounce risks turning red by year-end -- particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is secured -- with...
Iran Conflict Drives Oil, Fertilizer Prices, Crushing Farmers
NEW ODD LOTS HOW THE IRAN WAR WILL SQUEEZE AMERICA'S FARMERS EVEN FURTHER @TheStalwart & I brought back @AgrisAcademy's Jeff Kazin and Mike Rohlfsen to talk about how surging oil and fertilizer costs will make things even harder for farmers: https://t.co/sk6083JH4Y
Airlines Face Jet Fuel Shortage, Cancellations Loom
Airlines have been warned that they will face jet fuel shortages as soon as next month, risking flight cancellations
Gold Selloff Driven by Profit‑Taking, Margin Calls, and Speculation
Difnt explntns gold selloff by difnt people: 1. Reporters/Jr. anlysts: high inflation ends case 4 rate cuts 2. Jr.Traders: Selling few green holdngs to lock gains & absorb portfolio losses 4. AdvisoryNewsletters: Iran selling to finance ... 3. Sr Traders: Margin...
Gold Approaches February Low, Near Bear Market Threshold
Gold within striking distance of its February nadir as well... not far from bear market territory https://t.co/anEt7yJTiQ
Gold Drops 12% Since War, Defying Safe‑Haven Expectation
I'm a fan of the debasement trade and think precious metals will keep going higher over the medium term. But the fact that gold keeps falling when it should act as a safe haven also isn't nothing. Gold is now...
Brent Surges, Outpacing WTI; Gold, Silver Plummet
Brent soars 6%... now $16-$17 above WTI... Gasoline futures jump another 8.5 cents... Gold and silver destroyed https://t.co/qLglGU9Cbr
Oil Surge Boosts Trump TACO Risk, Yet Markets Hold
Brent is at $115. As oil prices rise, the risk of a Trump TACO also rises. That in turn depends on dysfunction in global markets. At the moment, even with Brent up 70% from a month ago, markets are looking...
Profit‑taking and Portfolio Rotation Curb Gold Amid Risk
One of the most recurrent questions I’m seeing at the moment is – why are #gold prices not going up, when we’re seeing one of the biggest risk events in the last 10 years, and when gold was a major...
Brent Surge Won’t Reach $150‑$200 Amid Capacity Limits
Brent is up 70% in the past month. This prices Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic at half its capacity indefinitely. With the Saudis diverting lots of oil to the Red Sea and Iran continuing to export, we're already almost at...
India Seeks More Fertilizer Imports Amid Supply Risks
MUMBAI/NEW DELHI(Reuters)-India, a leading importer of fertilisers, is in talks to increase purchases from Russia, Belarus and Morocco as Middle East tensions and China's export curbs risk tightening supplies ahead of the summer planting season - government and industry sources
US Gas Prices Jump 37%, Reach 2022 High
Average US gasoline prices have surged 37% since the January lows, rising to the highest since 2022. The absolute price level, $3.88, is still within the range of normal from a historical perspective. But it's rising at an rapid clip,...
European Gas Buyers Must Panic Immediately Amid Price Shock
European gas buyers need to panic ... now. Brutal for the more price elastic EM buyers here.
European Gas Prices Double in Four Weeks, Exposing Fossil Dependence
European natural gas prices keep on rising and have now more than doubled )+134%) in just four weeks from €29/MWh on 17 February to €67/MWh today. Geopolitical tensions and wars always drive up gas prices. Not a bug in the system....
Asia's LNG Shortage Revives Coal as Primary Fuel
MUST READ: Coal remains king — even in 2026. "... Across Asia, a sharp drop in liquefied natural gas supplies is pushing major importers back toward coal, undermining LNG’s long-held role as a stable energy anchor..." https://t.co/MZqvZYa8RD
Rising US Debt Drives Gold and Silver Surge
US national debt just hit ~$39T fueling fiat debasement fears. Gold's parabolic run to $5,000+/oz & silver to $120+/oz? Classic safe-haven hedge against exploding debt, uncertainty, central bank buying & weak dollar. $gld $slv https://t.co/IcA8Eo0nGL
Reserves Meant for Supply Shocks, Not Price Cushioning
Reserves shouldn’t be for cushioning prices at this point… you may never know with the madmen bombing everything in the Middle East, there may be no fuel coming in at all… the reserves are for such times…. If it was...
European Gas Spikes 30% After Qatar LNG Plant Hit
European gas prices surge 30% after Qatar said the world’s largest LNG export plant was damaged in an Iranian attack (Still TTF futures are far from the record highs of 2022) https://t.co/FC5b6KjHpJ
EVs Shave 1.5 Mbpd Off Global Oil Demand
World 1.5MBPD displaced by EVs in 2024 China in 2025 Oil market not about the 100 mbpd we use, but the 1-2 mbpd YOY change Oil markets break on variations > 1-2MBPD China's vehicle fleet electrification has just removed 250ML/day of China's demand...
Fertilizer Shortage Hits Poor Nations, Rich Remain Unscathed
The fertilizer crisis brewing because of Hormuz is going to be felt predominantly by people in some of the poorest nations on earth. Americans will only barely notice. Why? 1. The US, China, Europe, and other rich regions apply so much...
North Sea Dated Surges Past $112 Amid Supply Shock
North Sea Dated jumps above $112/bl as Europe absorbs delayed supply shocks from the Mideast war. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/north-sea-dated-benchmark-hits-highest.html
Asia's Russian Fuel Imports Surge Amid Middle East Turmoil
Asia's Russian fuel imports poised to hit all-time high due to Middle East disruption https://t.co/VUFUxd0Npq
Petroleum Product Prices Surge Beyond Crude, Podcast Explains
It isn't just about higher crude anymore , as various petroleum based products are soaring. We discussed this on the latest Facts vs Feelings, complete with St Patrick's Day gear and some I'm Shipping Up To Boston 🎶 🎵 https://t.co/zEoEFfsk2d
Gas Prices Won’t Fall: Global Supply, Not Local Shortages
This won't lower gasoline prices. The issue is overall global supply and not acute domestic shortages caused by transportation shortfalls.
Post‑war Tanker Boom Ends, Crude Lifts Plunge Sharply
Concerns mount over rate hangover after wartime tanker boom ends ▶️Global seaborne crude liftings volume plunged last week; alternatives to MEG are replacing only half of lost VLCC tonne-mile demand, according to Vortexa ⏩️Oil at ses is down ⏩️Nobody will keep oil at...
Gold, Silver Surge Validates Longs Amid Fed Confirmation
Basically gold and silver have been ramping for months and months and months while everyone cited Truflation and deflation being the risk, when it finally became undeniable by both the fed and fed funds futures, new longs wonder why they...
Brent‑WTI Spread Hits $12, Widest Since 2020
Brent crude is trading around 110 while WTI (US-benchmark) is under 100 per barrel. The current Brent-WTI spread is hovering around $12, the widest it has been since April 2020 https://t.co/Ll4QYHc69V
Oil Price Spikes Historically Signal Upcoming Recessions
This is a remarkable chart. Oil surges like the one we’ve seen recently have consistently preceded recessions. Chart by @thierryborgeat https://t.co/GpMNhNl06Y
Asia Faces Energy Shock as Gas Supplies Tighten
Good morning Asia, Brent rising but also watch products as we consume products not crude. For Asia, Qatari gas is very key & for some like Pakistan, that is 100% of supply. For others, still a big challenge, such as India. Even...
Iranian Missile Damages Qatar LNG Hub, Threatens Global Supply
Qatars industrial complex housing the world’s largest LNG export plant suffered “extensive damage” after an Iranian missile strike 🇶🇦 ⚠️ The plant provides 20% of global LNG supply, and was shut earlier this month. But a delayed restart (due to...
Export Limits Would Backfire, Raising U.S. Gas Prices
In my latest @ColumbiaUEnergy Energy Explained blog post, Neelesh Nerurkar & I argue that restricting US oil exports, once again reportedly being discussed in DC, would backfire—offering little relief to US consumers while imposing more significant economic and geopolitical costs
Common Sense Beats Expert Advice in Oil Spread Trades
So much of this game is just trying your best not to learn the same lesson over and over again. The most recent re-learned lesson for me… common sense is nearly always a better foundation for a trade than expert wisdom...
2011 Oil Spike
Do you remember when oil prices topped $150/barrel in the wake of the Libya strikes in 2011? And stayed above that price for most of the next two years? OK, you may not remember it because you probably weren't thinking about...
Copper Prices Slump as Yields Rise, FCX Near $50
Breakdown in COMEX Copper joins Gold, Silver and Platinum in weakening as real yields turn back higher and Bund yields on the verge of a major multi-year breakout @IBDinvestors Investors Business Daily @marketsurge charts of Freeport McMoran $FCX fell also to...
Middle East Crude Exports Plunge 25‑67%
Not looking good. Crude exports down between 25% and 67% from the Middle East, depending on country
Oil Backwardation Signals Temporary Shock; BTC Ties to Dollar
The heatmap below shows that the oil futures curve remains heavily backwardated, indicating that the energy market believes that the current oil shock is a temporary supply problem that will get fixed. That’s probably correct but the question is how...
Oil Firms Will Weigh Prices Before Ramping Output
Oil companies going to make reasoned judgements about prices before boosting production a ton
Powell: Oil Price Spike Lifts Short‑term Inflation Expectations
Powell: "Near term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks likely reflecting the rise in oil prices causes by supply disruptions in the Middle East"
Gulf Coast Crude Imports Hit Six‑year High Amid Gulf Disruption
U.S. CRUDE OIL imports into the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) surged to the highest for almost six years last week as refiners and traders prepared for a possibly prolonged disruption of exports from the Persian Gulf. Crude imports into the...
Geopolitical Shock Spikes Oil, Not a Secular Bear
Oil just saw one of its biggest surges in 45+ years—driven by geopolitical shock, NOT structural change. Higher prices risk fueling inflation and weighing on GDP mildly. Not likely to fuel a SECULAR bear market in stocks, but with sentiment...
Gulf Oil Spikes While Brent Steadies, JPM Warns Broader Surge
While Brent — the most commonly quoted crude oil benchmark — has been surprisingly well-behaved, Gulf oil prices have gone stratospheric. And JPMorgan’s oil analysts worry this could be a harbinger for the rest of the oil market. https://t.co/fD6tZ9vW81...
Futures Curve Shows Prices, Not Predictions
I know I am piling on here, but a reminder to those of you just tuning into oil markets... The Futures Curve is NOT a forecast... https://t.co/gyYIbj3Xqa
Powell’s Inflation Focus May Push Oil Lower, Buy Near $88
If Powell focuses more on the upside risks to inflation ( which is likely going to be the case ) I believe Oil can see some initial downside on this due to possible future demand contraction concerns. If that becomes the case...
10% Oil Supply Cut Could Spike Prices $150
Ouch. A standard estimate (ballpark) is ~ 10 mbd/ 10% of world supply is now off the market. Some elasticities were closer to -0.1, which implies a price hike of up to $100. This elasticity would...