Silver Futures +$5, E‑Minis
Insane moves no longer insane, Silver tame today.... Silver Futures +$5 from LOD E-Minis +132 from LOD
Rising Oil Prices Threaten U.S. Recession Amid Middle East Conflict
Surging oil prices have sparked fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could inflict steep financial costs on Americans "I am very concerned this could tip us into a recession if it persists," one economist tells @nytimes https://t.co/VkqGBNMgAR @TonyRomm...
Oil’s War‑Driven Price Defies Wild Market Swings
1/ At 3 AM this morning, oil hit $119.48. VIX touched 32. The S&P was in freefall. By noon: oil under $97. VIX back to 27. A complete round-trip. Wall Street learned nothing from it except: price in a long war forever. We...
Putin Urges Russia to Capitalize on Soaring Oil Prices
Putin says Russia should take advantage of the sky-high oil prices after US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Russia should redirect supplies to Europe elsewhere, he adds. “If we shift our focus right now to the markets that need more supplies, we might...
Higher Oil Prices Just Shift Relative Prices, Not Inflation
My take on the effect that increasing oil prices have on inflation: "There is a lot of narrative being spun in the newspapers saying that oil price increases will cause inflation. No. It simply means that the price of oil will...
Putin Warns Iran War Could Shut Hormuz Oil Flow
MOSCOW, March 9 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that the Iran war had triggered a global energy crisis and cautioned that oil production dependent on transport through the Strait of Hormuz could soon come to a...
LNG Glut Vanishes, Raising Deficit Shock Concerns
And as the forecasted 2026 LNG supply glut disappeared, I couldn’t help but wonder… was I too one supply shock away from flipping into a deficit? https://t.co/gGw2ZO9NRr
Two-Year Oil Futures Spike Since
Oil price futures, 2 years out: White: current blue: a week ago purple: 6 months ago Source: Bloomberg. https://t.co/IjF2clfIGe
Iran Warns Oil Tankers to Tread Carefully in Hormuz
Oil tankers transiting Strait of Hormuz ‘must be very careful,’ Iran foreign ministry warns: CNBC $USO $XLE
Watch Crude Oil Pattern as Week Ends
It could be interesting to see what this pattern in Crude Oil looks like at the week's end. $USO $XLE $TLT $GLD $SPY https://t.co/f4XJ3djY8Q
Crude Oil Poised to Slip Below $91
Do you still think it hasn't made the high for the year? The gap is about to be filled. So far it has been very similar to the 2022 top and if it keeps following the 2022 price path crude...
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Starts Impacting Brent Prices
My chat with @SoumayaKeynes about oil on the @FT podcast. When we did this on Thursday, Brent was $83 and there was lots of humming and hawing if they can go higher. We discussed the shutdown of the Strait of...
India’s Fuel Prices Stable Unless Oil Hits $130
The government sources say petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to increase as India currently has sufficient fuel stocks. Prices may only rise if crude oil crosses $130 per barrel. Officials expect crude to stay around $100 per barrel.
Copper's Plunge vs Oil Surge Signals Supply Shock
Copper down 4% in a week while oil rips 15%. That divergence is screaming one thing: this is a supply shock, not demand driven. When Dr. Copper disagrees with crude, listen to copper. https://t.co/BjBsMsjkwp
US Crude Shows $19 Upper Wick Spike
Now that is what I call a wick... Massive $19 dollar 'upper wick' on US crude oil... https://t.co/FyhlHK9e78
Oil Prices Surge, Volatility Spikes Ahead of Live Market Call
Lots to chat about this morning with oil surging and vol spiking 🛢️📈 MRKT Call is LIVE at 11 am ET with Dan & @CarterBWorth 📺 WATCH: https://t.co/6sahpHh8D9 https://t.co/mAD77jkCZv
EVs Cutting Oil Demand by 1.5M Barrels Daily
Are electric vehicles denting oil demand? Yes. By how much? 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, according to EV Curve Futurist. Caveat: These estimates are hard, but the numbers are certainly adding up.
Stop Forecasting Oil, Start Preparing for Price Swings
Don’t Predict Oil Prices, Prepare for Them - https://t.co/MNGa0kJy3v #oilprices #peakoil #supplychain #logistics #riskmanagement #decisionscience
Heating Oil Prices Surge $1.50 per Gallon Since February
Email from my home heating oil company: "This recent price run up is the biggest and most dramatic I have ever seen. Our heating oil suppliers have raised the prices they are charging us by more than $1.50 per gallon since...
Year‑long 10% Energy Surge Adds 40bps Inflation, Cuts Growth
1/5 A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. So, what price measures "persists for a...
Beyond Price Control: New Roles for a Full US SPR
People recoil at the idea of using the SPR just to damp prices. But now that the US has plenty of domestic oil, what other purposes would it serve? What other conditions would be an appropriate time to use it?
Oil Spikes Above $119 as Supply Cuts, War Fears Loom
LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices surged to more than $119 a barrel on Monday, hitting levels not seen since mid-2022, as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruption gripped the market due to the...
Aramco Cuts Output as Hormuz Disruption Escalates
March 9 (Reuters) - Saudi oil giant Aramco https://t.co/YZZv8YNZz9 has begun cutting output at two of its oilfields, two sources said on Monday, after the vital Strait of Hormuz was choked by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and subsequent attacks...
G7's 400‑Million‑Barrel Release May Mask Iran Conflict Risks
G7 countries looking at releasing oil reserves. Maybe 400 million barrels. How much impact will this have? What if the Iran war continues, and reserves are drawn down?
Oil Prices Surge Above $119 Amid Iran Conflict
Oil Prices Hit Highest Since 2022 at More Than $119 a Barrel on Iran War. Price keeps rising. Logistics and supply chain risk keeps rising. https://t.co/OKkcOWm7OV
Rising Oil Prices Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
Lower energy prices were keeping US inflation rates from rising. But that tailwind will turn into a headwind in March with prices spiking on a YoY basis. We could easily see CPI rise above 3% if Crude Oil stays above...
Iran War Doubles Oil Moves, Halves Dollar Impact
Compared to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion, this Iran war has produced 2x the move in oil, but only 1/2 the move in DXY. This is exactly what I'm talking about playing out - the dollar is structurally challenged. https://t.co/H1VIqKNbr7
Hedge Funds Cash In on Oil Spike, Keep Bullish Bet
Hedge funds realise some profits as oil prices climb Hedge funds and other money managers sold Brent futures and options last week to realise some of their profits on former bullish positions as prices surged after the United States and Israel...
Oil Supply Deletion Drives Prices, Volatility, and Market Stress
$WTI above $100. $VIX above 33. Nikkei down 5.4%. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Zero tankers transiting. This isn't a supply disruption. It's a supply deletion. And the SPR is at 40-year lows. https://t.co/WaTisWuS4y
Iran's 70% Output Cut Predicts Oil Price Decline
Iran's oil production is down 70%, according to reports. When the fifth largest oil producing country in the world (at 5 million barrels a day) drops like this, we now know what the underlying asset price will do. https://t.co/jRLuiAK0xM
U.S. Gas Prices Hit Highest Since Summer 2024
The national average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has climbed to its highest level since the summer of 2024 @WSJmarkets https://t.co/6mDhre9ozD https://t.co/UVDG3Mq2Rd
Closed Hormuz Strait Shifts Oil Risk to Reopening
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. It's not going to get more closed than it already is. All the risk is now on the other side, i.e. when and to what extent it opens. You can bet Trump is very...
Buy Gold Above $5200 as Dollar Strength Persists
Macro: USD & yields up; oil spike lifts risk‑off. Key: $5000 sup, $5150–$5200 res. Risks: Middle East safe‑haven vs dollar strength. Trade: Buy on decisive close >$5200. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Oil's Surge Peaks, Bitcoin Nears $70K Breakout
A massive move on Oil, as it surged with 55% in the recent 8 days. However, it looks topped. A correction in Oil would be reflected in other markets, and that's why I think we'll see a surge in the indices...
Iran Conflict Could Halt Grain Surplus Recovery
Commodity Price Pumps and Iran vs. Russia's Ukraine Invasion - The US exports about 25% of its grain production, and prices have been declining on the back of the 2022 spikes, which incentivized more supply -- notably from Brazil. Russia's...
Hormuz Closure Threatens India's Energy Supply
A 33 km waterway which is 3000 km away from you can decide how much you must pay for petrol, cylinder etc. A 33 km waterway between Iran–Oman called the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global crude oil passes through this route,...
Pre‑emptive Oil Purchases Could Offset Iran Bombing Price Spike
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of...
Discussing How to Bring Oil Below $100
I’ll be coming up on @BloombergTV in a few to discuss zooming #oil prices with @lisaabramowicz1 & @FerroTV Can anything be done to bring oil under $100 in the foreseeable future? @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #Iran https://t.co/hJJBdEoPvU
U.S. Becomes Net Energy Exporter, Yet Oil‑Price Sensitive
One of my higher conviction views: the US is now a net energy exporter (LNG more than oil) but it is best understood as an oil importer that is uniquely sensitive to oil price swings. 1/
Brent Surge Drives Spike in VIX Correlation
BIG OIL MOVES = FUEL FOR HIGHER CORRELATIONS Front-month Brent up ~55% over the past month. VIX contingent on Brent front-month futures +/- 50% in 1M: Median: 33.9 Average: 44.4 Max: 76.5 Min: 27.6 Current: 32.2
German Gas Prices Surge to €60/MWh, Sixfold US Cost
Good Morning from Germany, where spot gas prices have surged to above €60 per megawatt hour. That makes natural gas roughly 6 times more expensive here than in the US. https://t.co/4kxjaKHMGh
Saudi Cuts Oil Output; Shipping Bottleneck, Not Supply
*SAUDI ARABIA STARTS OIL OUTPUT CUTS AS STORAGE FILLS UP We do not have a lack of supply of oil. We have a lack of supply of shipping
China Approves $4 Gas Price Hike Nationwide
China gives the all-clear for retail gas and diesel prices to rise in its regular price review. State media said it's likely to mean an additional ~RMB25 / US$4 to fill a tank https://t.co/x9kKlWXOn3
California Gas Prices Spike, Prompting Trump EO Talk
Californians: what prices are you seeing at the pump? Could be the right moment for @realDonaldTrump to issue $SOC EO. Getting oil through Hormuz past the Iranians easier than getting it to California past @CAgovernor et al.
1990
log real oil in 2026 dollars. persian gulf, early 1990s at ~$73, in 2026 dollars. underlying is PGCRARLT INDX DES https://t.co/ZaA76mNpOi
Oil Spikes Signal Cycle End: Income Squeeze, Fed Reaction?
an old debate. Oil-price spikes have a nasty habit of marking the end of the cycle. But is that because of the income-squeeze, or the Fed's response? Or both? https://t.co/IE8tGIRy68
Fossil Fuel Prices Surge While Renewables Remain Unfazed
Another Monday morning, more energy market turbulence. After fossil fuel prices stabilised somewhat towards end of last week they are reaching new highs. Renewable electricity does not as the sun & the wind don’t care much for what happens in...
Qatar Delays LNG Expansion to 2027 After Drone Attack
Qatar is pushing back the start of its new LNG expansion project to 2027 🇶🇦⚠️ The move comes after the Ras Laffan facility was hit with an Iranian drone attack This threatens to further curb global gas supply and push back an...
Iran War and Oil Surge Amplify US Labor Market Risks
FYI, my latest article in the Financial Times discusses how the war in Iran and skyrocketing oil prices can compound the spillovers from an uncertain US labor market and financial strains in three market sectors. https://www.ft.com/content/418455bc-e177-46a4-8e25-44c837f49038 #economy #markets #oil #middleeastwar @financialtimes
IEA Stockpiles Insufficient Due to Low Release Rates
About any IEA oil stocks release: ✔️ Volume may not be an issue. At 1.2 billion barrels government stockpiles and 0.6 bil barrels commercial stockpiles, the volume is enough *in theory* to offset the loss of 20 mil b/d for 90...