Strait of Horm
US political leaders, the oil industry, and traders are waking up to what we advised clients in June: restoring oil and LNG flow in the Strait of Hormuz won't be quick or easy. A load-bearing assumption in global energy is buckling. Rapidan mapped this out months ago. Check the timestamp.
IEA Report Signals Shift From Oil Oversupply to Shortages
From oversupply to concern of shortages - IEA oil stocks release is coming, sources say https://t.co/ttzyIWK0qw
Russian Oil Tax Price Tops Budget Target Amid Iran War
MOSCOW, March 11 (Reuters) - The price of Russian oil used for taxation has exceeded the budget target for the first time since January 2025 because of the rise in global prices caused by the Iran war, Reuters calculations showed...
Reserve Composition Outweighs Sheer Size, IEA Shows
More on the IEA reserves: US has only crude Japan has a mix of crude and products Europe has mostly products The mix of the release is as important as the size of the release
Countries Urge China to Curb Oil Reserve Purchases
Also, as the IEA releases, member countries are reaching out to China to make sure it doesn't use the opportunity to buy more barrels for its own reserve (as it did in 2022). (...the IEA-Chinese coordinate was last done in 2011...
IEA Release: Watch Daily Flow, Not Total Barrels
When the IEA release is announced, my focus won't be on the headline number (say 300-400m barrels). Ignore that number. The key is the flow, in BARRELS PER DAY, the IEA promises FOR THE FIRST 20-30 DAYS of the stockdraw, and...
Oil Markets Destabilized by Info War and Hormuz Closure
Spoke with Bloomberg earlier today about the IEA stocks release plan, the information war on top of the military conflict in the Mideast, the severe pricing dislocations in the oil market, plus the unfolding impact of the continued closure of...
South Korea Accelerates Nuclear Restarts Amid Middle East Fuel Crisis
South Korea will speed up the restart of nuclear reactors undergoing maintenance to secure energy as the war in the Middle East chokes fossil fuel supplies 🇰🇷☢️ The nation will seek to start two units this month, and a further four by...
IEA Report Likely Shows Oversupplied Market Amid War’s End
How would a big IEA release look considering: -- The war is about to be over "very soon" -- The market is well-supplied, as repeatedly and recently claimed -- Brent is <$90 Just asking... 😅🤔
Qatar's Ras Laffan Outage Tightens LNG Market, Spikes Prices
The world's largest LNG plant hasn't exported a shipment in five days. That's the longest streak since at least 2008 🇶🇦⚠️ Qatar shut its Ras Laffan facility last week after a drone attack The longer Qatar's outage continues, the tighter the market...
IEA to Release More Oil than Post‑Ukraine Invasion, Hormuz Closed
The IEA is preparing to release more oil than it did after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tankers. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/TcCIMKXR4l
Inflation‑Adjusted Crude Oil Poised for $220 All‑Time High
Crude Oil adjusted for inflation is quite cheap An all-time high is very realistic -- that would put Crude above $220 per barrel Likely by the end of this decade $CL_F https://t.co/oQOmEtjGtH
Silver Premium Soars, Gold Trades Near LBMA Levels
Good morning #China 🇨🇳 silver is trading at $100.84/oz or a premium of 13.8% above #LBMA gold is trading at $5,229/oz or a premium of 0.3% >LBMA
EIA Predicts Brent Surpasses $95 per Barrel Soon
US #EIA forecasts #Brent >$95/barrel over the next two months in its latest STEO. https://t.co/YJdFYlyAms
IEA's Massive Oil Release Hinges on Single-Country Veto
IEA Proposes Largest Ever Oil Release From Strategic Reserves…but if one country objects then it won’t go through (kinda like OPEC…) https://t.co/wnthFedVaT
Gas and Diesel Prices Surge 25‑40% Since January
Gasoline Prices Spike, Now up 25% since January, Diesel Prices 40%, Heating up Inflation. California is back over $5. Prices in Texas jumped by 25% month to month, to over $3.23. https://t.co/hv90K5cgPf https://t.co/NCe7JLzqmA
Energy Secretary Whipsaws Crude Prices Again
A now-deleted post from Energy Secretary Chris Wright whipsawed crude for the second-straight session 🤡 @ENERGY $USO https://t.co/XlECoBdhiQ via @WSJ
Oil Prices Mirror Chaos Theory's Butterfly Effect
My monthly takes a look at oil price scenarios Inspired by Jurassic Park and Jeff Goldblum’s explaination of chaos theory. This hit close to home. Made my mom cry - should have warned her about the ending. The Butterfly Effect...
Extreme Crude Oil Price Swings Linked to Inflation
New free article: Tail Events in Crude Oil Plus Inflation-Adjusted Prices. Link in reply below. 👇 https://t.co/zZ0F6nhkje
Energy Secretary's Tweet Triggers $80 Oil Dip
Why you reeeeally need to think before you tweet if you’re the Energy Secretary. Oil prices fell under $80 bc of this. US official: ‘Not true’ Navy successfully escorted oil tanker through Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/nI7oZeeaDh
Reopen Hormuz Strait, Not Ban Oil Exports
Want to understand what's going on with rising oil prices and Iran? I gave a full breakdown on @tbpn. The basics: • There is absolutely no substitute for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, whether through rapid victory or through a well-protected convoy. •...
Iran Says Current Oil Disruption 4‑20× Worse than Past Crises
Foreign Minister of Iran claiming current oil disruption is 4-20x more severe than previous oil crises https://t.co/33VOGTSEeb
Hormuz Tensions Spike Oil, Pressure Global Markets
Oil prices are spiking as the frozen Straits of Hormuz has become the epicenter of the conflict. As of Sunday night’s futures open, WTI futures are trading at $108, which could make the...
Oil Swings $21 in Two Hours—Unprecedented Volatility
Absolute insanity: In just 2 hours, oil prices have now fallen -$10/barrel and risen +$11/barrel, with prices now nearing $90/barrel again. This is unprecedented volatility.
Energy Secretary's Deleted Claim Boosts Dollar, Trims Stocks
Reports indicate US Energy Secretary deleted his social media post claiming the US Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. USD has turned better bid following the deletion. Stocks trim earlier gains. April WTI recovering off...
Hormuz Closure Nullifies OPEC+ Supply Pledges
The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil demand. It's still closed. OPEC+ pledged 206K bpd in April. Middle East producers are cutting because storage is full. Supply math doesn't work when the pipe is shut. https://t.co/EMaJvlSk4u
Navy Escorts First Tanker; Soybeans Hold as Corn, Wheat Fall
U.S. Navy escorts its first tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. #corn & #wheat prices follow crude oil lower, but #soybeans hang onto modest gains on hopes we'll get final RVOs from EPA any day, with possible exports to China....
US Oil Slides Below $80 as War Risk Fades
US oil prices fall over -16% on the day and officially drop below $80/barrel. Geopolitical risk premiums are being rapidly priced-out. The oil market says the war is ending.
Supply Strength Keeps Oil Prices Low, Diminishing Hedge Demand
Oil market isn't going the way Iran hoped. Amazing what the Saudi/UAE pipelines can do, plus the (very clear) threat of SPR release. Plus, oil crisis are defined by price x duration. Without a feared long disruption, investors aren't chasing oil futures...
Brent's Record Volatility Mirrors War Uncertainty
Brent becomes extremely volatile amid confusion about war’s duration Brent futures traded in a record daily range of more than $35 per barrel on March 9, as traders reacted to conflicting signals about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz...
Navy Escort Through Hormuz Eases Supply Fears, Oil Falls
This Bloomberg headline crossing now may explain the new downturn in crude oil prices (repost) --- *US NAVY ESCORTED AN OIL TANKER THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
Sell‑side Lagging; Real Market Move Still Ahead
JPMorgan sees a 10% $SPY pullback. Goldman raised Brent to $76 Q2 target — before oil hit $111. When the sell-side is behind the curve, the real move hasn't happened yet. https://t.co/eWvAv1XMRu
US Oil Slides 15% to $80, 32% Below Peak
*US OIL PRICES EXTEND DECLINE, FALL 15% TO TRADE NEAR $80/BBL April 2026 WTI futures are now down ~32% since Sunday night's peak https://t.co/9QugACQ3Q0
Renewables Don't Drive Up U.S. Electricity Prices
Think of this graph of real U.S. price and electricity production data, straight from the Department of @Energy, next time you hear the false claim that renewables increase electricity prices and that coal, gas, or nuclear is needed to keep...
Kirkuk Pipeline Offers Iraq's Sole Hormuz Bypass
Oil production around Kirkuk, in Iraqi Kurdistan, is connected to global markets via a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan This is Iraq’s only crude supply that can bypass the currently-closed Strait of Hormuz Shut-ins in the Basra area by the...
ING Predicts Oil Market Shock if Hormuz Closes
What impact will closing the Strait of Hormuz have? ING takes a guess featured in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/aiQTNxvQMb
Hard Assets Rally as War Ends, Metals Lead
“Precious metals surge as the war ends.” Bizarre, to say the least. Very solid move in miners and Latin American stocks today. Also worth noting: Oil and gas equities remain remarkably resilient despite the volatility in energy prices. None of us own enough hard...
Hormuz Closure Reverses WCS‑WTI Spread Amid Sour Crude Flow
Most of the crude that ships out of the Strait of Hormuz is medium-to-heavy sour Western Canadian Select at Houston vs WTI, which reflects a clean light-heavy quality differential, had weakened (widened) on Venezuela reentering the USGC market—Hormuz closure entirely reversed...
Extreme Backwardation Signals Temporary, Overdone Oil Price Spike
You didn't have to be a genius to look at the extreme backwardation in the Futures curve for crude oil to call the current price spike temporary, and overdone. #CrudeOil
Japan Sets NdPr Price Floor, Investors Remain Unmoved
Japan becomes the second country to lock in a NdPr price floor. Countries seem to recognise the issue with rare earths but equity investors seem not to... https://t.co/5GI3bRV7K3
Corn Supplies Surpass Forecasts Amid Brazil, Ukraine Harvests
World corn stocks come in above expectations on larger crops in Brazil and Ukraine. Slight downward adjustment in wheat stocks and minimal movement in soybeans. Chinese soy/corn/wheat demand assumptions were unchanged. https://t.co/nknz514GTs
Market Stays Calm Amid Monthly Crop Report
Today's market response thus far about as calm as they come for a monthly crop report. #oatt
Buy Crude at 83‑92; Below $75 Signals End
If you are bullish crude on reescalation, this is the buy zone .. Equilibrium in CL1 should be 83/92 .. Single prints yesterday on trump comments in the 91/92 area. Below $75 (the first Sunday gap when the war started)...
World Corn Stocks up Nearly 4 MMT, USDA Reports
World #corn stocks rise by nearly 4 mmt in today's WASDE report from USDA #oatt
USDA Holds Corn, Soybean, Wheat Stocks Estimates Steady
USDA made no changes to U.S. #corn, #soybean, or #wheat ending stocks estimates today. #oatt
USDA Tweaks Brazil Corn up, Cuts Argentina Corn, Soy
USDA left Brazil #soybean crop unchanged at 180 mmt, raised its #corn crop 1 mmt to 132 mmt, Cut Argentina's corn 1 mmt to 52 mmt, while cutting soybeans 0.5 mmt to 48.0 mmt #oatt
Precious Metals Outperform US Stocks, Stay Long
CHART OF THE DAY: We Remain Long Of Precious Metals Which Continue To Smoke US Stocks https://t.co/6qnn1dwo1s via @hedgeye
India Redirects LPG to Homes Amid Gas Shortage
INDIA GAS SHORTAGE 🇮🇳 ⚠️ India invoked emergency powers to redirect LPG away from industrial users to households LNG supplies to petrochemical and power plants are being curbed The crisis in the Middle East is throttling India’s LPG and LNG supply https://t.co/ujn00XTSnf
Gas Hits $3.54, Adding $25 Monthly Tax
What a chart. Gas prices are now $3.54, up more than 55 cents since before the war in Iran began. This is the highest gas price ever under President Trump (including his first term). This is effectively a $25/mo. tax on most households....
China's Jan‑Feb Soy Imports Hit 7‑year Low
🇨🇳China imported 12.55 million metric tons of soybeans in Jan-Feb, the smallest volume for the period in 7 years. The Brazilian harvest was slower, U.S. cargoes were still en route and customs clearing times were extended. Expectations for March are...