Australian Fuel Prices Surge, up $0.77 per Litre
Fuel has now gone up by $0.77 cents a liter in Australia and keeps climbing by the hour. How much further shall it goooo
Iran Keeps Oil Flowing as Gulf Supplies Stall
“Winning like never before”? Iran keeps exporting oil through Hormuz Saudi, Iraqi, and Gulf supplies stall and global shipping freezes. Control of the chokepoint looks very different from the victory narrative. https://t.co/XWciH00m2o #IranWar #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics
Physical Market Beats Narrative as Brent Nears $100
DAY 13: The physical market appears to have won the battle over the manufactured narrative. The IEA announced 400 mil barrels release but crude went 🆙 instead of down. Brent eyeing $100 again. 🧵
US Taps 172 Million Barrels From Strategic Reserve
United States to release 172 million barrels of oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Department of Energy $USO $XLE
U.S. to Release 172 M Barrels Over 120 Days
U.S. details its participation in the IEA coordinated SPR release. Washington will release 172 million barrels over a 120 day period, equal to a flow of ~1.4 million barrels per day.
SPR Releases Are Optics, Not Price Drivers
Reminder: tapping the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve" is just about optics. It has no meaningful impact on the price of Oil because the reserve is so small, only representing 20 days of US Oil consumption (assuming we used it all) and...
Oil and Commodities Set to Rise Despite Iran War Outcome
Carlyle's Jeff Currie lays out a case for why oil and other commodity prices are heading higher, regardless of the exact outcome of the war in Iran. https://t.co/tMKWpSXhYe
US SPR Drawdown To
Finally, some US SPR detail. Reportedly beginning next week. Still no mention of official flow rate (what really matters), but Sec Wright said the drawdown would last ~120 days which yields ~1.4 MMbpd draw pace. (Biden admin managed ~1 MMbpd max drawdown rate...
Expect 4.8
IF-THEN I am growing in confidence we’re gonna hit 4.8% in the US 10 year yield this year - with potential overshoot of crude to $300 and 10Y to 5.8% in a real panic (outlier event). That's too scary to digest/trade but...
Triangle Breakout Could Propel Gold to $7k, Silver $150
Another triangle pattern is currently forming in gold, silver, and other precious metals, and if it breaks out, we could see gold surge to $6,000 to $7,000 fairly quickly and silver to $150+.
Brent Oil Stalls Near $95 Resistance, RSI Overbought
#BrentOil Comp Doji Candle and Sideways. Support $84.1, $80, $73.2, $66.8. Resistance $95, $100, $108.2. RSI 70 Overbought. Top Bollinger Band $105.6. Midpoint Line $85.3. Bottom Band $64.9.
Sustained $90‑$100 Oil Drives $3 Gasoline Spike
Oil is the only commodity that is used in every single sector of the US economy. It is a commodity like no other. So it really matters how long it stays elevated, and when I say elevated, anything north of...
IEA Ignores Demand Solutions, Relies Solely on Supply
Final comment on IEA release: If the shortfall is such that it requires a 400 million barrels release, surely demand measures should had been approved too: fuel switching (oil-to-coal, gas-to-coal); societal behaviour (lower highway speed limits, lower AC/heating use), and...
Trump Confirms US Join IEA Oil Release, Plans SPR Refill
President Trump has formally confirmed the US is participating in the IEA emergency oil stock release. “We’ll do that and then we’ll fill it up,” Trump said referring to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “Right now, we’ll reduce it a little...
Hormuz Closure Could Redefine US‑Iran Power Balance
The Strait of Hormuz is turning into the key test of strength between the US and Iran. I've been thinking about what happens if it stays closed for an extended period. My conclusions might surprise you. https://t.co/mPXBo8HuqY
Oil Above $100 Forces Nationwide Price Adjustments
Oil prices sourced to $120 a barrel on Sunday before dropping to $104. As Billy Bob Thornton notes in this TV clip, at $100+ per barrel, "every product in America has to readjust its price"
Urea‑to‑corn Price Ratio Hits Near Post‑Covid Peak
The ratio of urea to corn is nearing its worst levels of the post-Covid inflation. https://t.co/2Eazf7LmiV https://t.co/O3bgdlViKO
Oil Pricing Shifted From Negotiations to OPEC Quota Control
yes, it did but it was also followed by a complete revolution in how oil prices were set. Before oil companies negotiated a posted price with OPEC. Afterwards OPEC set prices thru production quotas I♥️historical comparisons, but not everything is directly...
No Strategic Urea Reserve; Buffer Storage Nearly Nonexistent
Not only is there no strategic urea reserve, if you listen to today's episode, you'll see there really isn't much buffer storage anywhere at all https://t.co/niRvIF7txf
Soybeans Hit 11‑Session Overbought Streak, RSI 85
📈CBOT November soybeans pushed higher on Wednesday, ending at $11.63-1/4 per bushel and marking their 11th consecutive session in overbought territory (RSI of 70+). Relative strength index has reached 85. Last time new-crop bean RSI was 85+ in year of expiry?...
US Price Lag Could Shrink, but Strait Closure Threatens Economy
US price-to-production response is typically ~6 months. In an exceptional situation, like now, maybe we could get that down to ~4 months? But if the Strait is still closed in 4 months the entire global economy is pretty well screwed.
WTI Prices Dip While Volatility Hits Six-Year Peak
WTI crude oil remains well off its intraday high from Monday, but implied volatility - from the $OVX - continues to climb to fresh 6-year highs... https://t.co/VDf2X5NDWk
Japan Leads Largest G7 Emergency Oil Release
Thank you to Prime Minister Takaichi of Japan for her and the Japanese government’s support for the largest ever emergency oil stock release by @IEA Member countries to address the disruptions in the market
Rising Oil Prices Boost Putin as Sanctions Ease
High oil prices are great for Putin. At $85 per barrel, Urals oil price is now the highest since 2022. High prices also mean the EU's maritime services ban in its 20th sanctions package is dead and pressure in the...
Price Spikes Cause Pain, Not Physical Shortages
Price spikes will hurt a lot, but they're the luxury position--much better to have pump price pain than outright physical shortages, as will be suffered by much of the developing world. This is how you guarantee shortages in this context. https://t.co/jRUy3woUSl
30 Billion Barrels Ready to Counter Hormuz Price Spike
Awesome. This is exactly the policy we need. By my analysis, we can get these 30 billion barrels of refined petroleum products to market in the next few days, which will really help mitigate the price spikes from the closure of...
Preparedness Can Mitigate Hormuz Closure Impacts
Employ America Statement on the Coordinated IEA Release. https://t.co/goQS5uJUUS No stockpile release can compare to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but with the right preparation, there are still ways to make it helpful at the margin. https://t.co/K549sAsIrM
Chile's Right‑Wing Turn Signals Lithium, Copper Market Shift
Big implications for #lithium and #copper markets... Chile is a major global producer of both #criticalminerals.
Kazakhstan Boosts OPEC+ Output, Iran War Cuts Exports
OPEC+ crude production rose more than 400 kbpd m/m in February according to just-released OPEC data, with the bulk driven by the ongoing Kazakh recovery. Unfortunately it's immediately worthless given GCC crude exports were throttled immediately thereafter by Iran War. https://t.co/jTQxOjrt4b
Diesel Spikes 96¢/Gal, Straining U.S. Supply Chains
Diesel prices for U.S. truckers rose a record 96 cents a gallon this past week, a sign of the financial strains hitting supply chains following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. https://t.co/C9K90LaXGX
US Ethanol Production Surges, Inventories Hit Four‑year Low
🇺🇸U.S. ethanol production last week hit 1.126M barrels per day, the third best weekly volume on record. However, ethanol stocks declined on the week to 25.6M barrels, which is actually the week's lowest reading in four years. https://t.co/kJtuRESZcN
Energy Spike Could Lift Eurozone Inflation to 2.3%
First scores on doors I've seen ... and it's boringly close to what we have been telling readers in the past week. At the current futures curve in oil, you get 2.3% in 2026 (roughly), with gas not doing much...
Saudi's Strategic Oil Storage Shields Global Supply
◾️Saudi Arabia deserves more recognition for its prudent, forward-thinking approach—strategically prepositioning oil in storage facilities around the world to hedge against potential supply disruptions. ◾️What @AlexLawler100 missed in this story is going back to previous reports to see that...
Fertilizer Stocks Surge Despite Oil Price Pullback
Crude oil has pulled back from its high of over $110/barrel, but fertilizer stocks are still moving, hitting multi-year highs. This corner of the market still appears to be expecting petro price pressure. https://t.co/r6Y5yIn6hu
Oil Poised Above $102 as Pattern Confirms Bullish Move
Interestingly, crude oil is up after the IEA reserve release. If this head and shoulders pattern on the near term charts plays out, we are looking at oil back above $102 a barrel. https://t.co/WA4Ceo89fg
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Brent Upside Risk Despite Parity
The Strait of Hormuz remains almost shut, even as the risk premium priced into Brent currently (blue) is on par with that after Ukraine (black). The Strait is 3 times more important for global oil supply than Russia, so risk...
Japan's 80 Million‑Barrel Release Beats IEA's Forecast
Rather than the IEA's own 400 million barrels, the most important number right now is Japan's announcement that's releasing from Monday (March 16th) ~80 million barrels from its reserve. Those are actual flow barrels that will hit the market immediately...
Crude and Gas Prices Mirror Each Other After Nine Days
9 trading days into the conflict, crude and gas price trajectory has been very similar oil: https://t.co/O0orfuxpnw
Surcharges Delay Relief From Falling Gas Prices
As economists forecast falling gas prices later in 2026, I encourage you to consider this chart. Once surcharges are imposed, the benefits of falling prices are very slow to follow... https://t.co/pl5zUkZK7h
Diesel Price Surge Forces Costs Onto Retailers and Factories
"Record Diesel-Price Surge Hits U.S. Truckers, Retailers and Manufacturers" https://t.co/5jBpvH4MCa "Most large trucking companies will pass the added costs on to American stores and factories..." Fortunately, US factories aren't already facing soaring costs, so it's fi- oh. https://t.co/ZU45kzcUbj
Demand Drops only After Gas Hits $5 per Gallon
At what price is demand destruction when it comes to gasoline prices? According to Casey's General Store on their earnings call yesterday, “on the volume side of things, with absolute retail prices, we really don’t start to see any level...
Oil's Wild Swing Reveals Conviction‑free Market
$WTI crashed from $100 to $83 in a session. Then bounced back to $87. Oil volatility this extreme hasn't happened since 2008. Every rip gets sold. Every dip gets bought. Nobody has conviction. Everyone has exposure. https://t.co/UWmcEvxdHn
Gold Surged 60% Post-Powell, Fell with War
At the end of February, gold was up 60% from Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole on Aug 22, which is what sparked the "debasement trade." After a massive gain like that, it's no surprise that gold fell once war...
Seasonal Blend Adds 25¢; Limited Further Gas Rise
25 cents of the 65-cent surge in retail gasoline prices was due to the usual seasonal switch to the summer RBOB blend... ...and if futures hold here, we are only looking at another 10-15 cents of pump-price upside $UGA $GASO...
WTI Oil Bounces Between $82‑$92 Since Monday
Ex the plunge yesterday afternoon, WTI crude oil has ranged from $82 to $92 since mid-Monday https://t.co/B3lICn2XOe
WTI Crude Likely Slides Below $57.42 by 2026
A Down 2026 for WTI Crude Oil Is Under $57.42; What Stops It? The world's largest energy producer and net exporter's attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz provided strong reasons to pump crude oil prices...
Energy Index Surge Threatened by Falling US‑Canada Demand
Collapsing US, Canada Demand vs. Supply and Energy - The Bloomberg Energy Spot Index (BCOMENSP) has had an exceptional year in 2026, gaining about 30% to March 10. Is it sustainable? My graphic shows top reasons why the 1Q pump...
US Fertilizer Prices Surge with Global Market Trends
"Farmers Face Skyrocketing Fertilizer Prices," https://t.co/CYP8u85BYC "Even when the United States is not directly importing fertilizer from the Middle East, domestic prices still follow global markets." 😲 https://t.co/5N5ApqoDhL
Oil Climbs 2% as Iran Threatens Tech Sites, Reserves Released
Oil prices +2% - here’s the latest: ⚠️ Iran: Says it will target U.S. technology company facilities next, including $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $IBM $ORCL $PLTR locations in Israel, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi 🛢️ Oil reserve release updates: 🇩🇪 Germany to partially release national...
Oil Prices Drop, Likely Stabilize at $90‑$100
I wrote this piece: "What can make the oil price fall?" on Sunday night because debate around oil had gotten far too one-sided. We've now fallen significantly and - while hostilities continue - I think we'll bounce around in a...