Iran's Move Could Crash Oil Prices, Lose Leverage
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
Jet Fuel Prices Jump 85% Amid Middle East Tensions
This move follows a similar decision by Air India earlier this week, driven by a reported 85% surge in jet fuel prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Tehran’s Real Leverage: Shutting Hormuz, Not Drone Control
Everyone wants a Hormuz EZ-Pass but Tehran's primary leverage is keeping the Strait closed to *all* traffic. It's the total supply flow lost—not the destinations— that ultimately matters. And no guarantee that person with whom you're negotiating is controlling the drones. https://t.co/xNoSi9YCh5
May Futures Collapse, Open Interest Near Zero
Boolish Silver folks watching May Futures drop $3 and getting close to sub $80. If folks really really wanted more physical, they should have stayed long March Futures, the open interest is a measly 875 contracts vs 77,604 in May (FYI...
Fed Cuts Would Spike Yields Amid Oil‑driven Demand Destruction
If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the...
Fed Stuck: Low CPI Hides 68% Oil Surge
CPI at 2.4%. Looks fine. Except $WTI is up 68% YTD and none of it is in the data yet. The Fed is trapped. Cut → inflation explodes. Hold → recession deepens. Goldman pushed cut to September. Futures say December 2027. https://t.co/WFbW5IQa0u
Brent's Third-Month Futures Outperform Front-Month, Signaling Supply Risks
This is the week that oil markets started to wake up to not-so-short-term supply risks. Unprecedented outperformance of Brent third-month vs front-month in an up market (since at least 1989) https://t.co/moJqCod6kL https://t.co/0wKCN8bKco
US Eases Russian Oil Bans, Boosting Putin’s War Funds
US Treasury Allows More Russian Oil Sales to Help Tame Prices. And Putin is laughing as he heads to the bank and thumbs his nose at sanctions. And has needed revenue for his Ukraine war. https://t.co/zWRhldvD7W
Soybeans Hold Above Upper Keltner, Bulls Supported
Haven't mentioned in for a couple of days because we have been trading so far above it. Upper keltner #soybean level 11.98 1/4. If not familiar with them that would be a level of support for the bulls...
Oil Gains $30/Barrel as Hormuz Closure Persists
Happy Friday, oil watchers. We're now two weeks into the Iran War and crude prices are up ~$30/bbl. That's roughly a $3/bbl gain per day that the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed, a pace that I expect to continue so long...
Cocoa Slides After Downward Spike, Consider Exiting
Cocoa: Easter Bunny came early this year...after a large STD move to downside, Wyckoff automatic rally up, now secondary test down for higher low or continue to base. Time to walk away... https://t.co/RHZIpfSdak
Crude, VIX, Bitcoin Surge After US‑Israel Iran Attack
big picture % change since U.S. & Israel attacked Iran... crude + $VIX & Bitcoin up the most... https://t.co/lK9FCWy5TY
Analysts Predict Future Hikes Already Passed
A hallmark about most fancy analysts, including many I respect, is that they don't appear to be filling up at the gas station. Most of them talk about future price hikes in the coming days, not realizing that they have...
Ethanol Market Outlook: EV Shift, E15
Yesterday, I had the opportunity to present a webinar titled "Understanding the Ethanol Market" for the Center for Agricultural Profitability at the University of Nebraska. During the session, I shared my insights on several key topics, including: - EV transition and...
Extended Hormuz Closure Accelerates Alternative Energy Shift
What are the longer term ramifications of an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz? Growth in alternative energy sources? What else?
Brent up 66% YTD, Still Near Century Average
BRENT crude prices have risen by more than two-thirds since the start of the year but in real terms they remain moderate at only a little over the average since the start of the century: https://t.co/MsEc6Lww8F
Suspending Jones Act Could Lower U.S. Fuel Costs
"What the Jones Act does and how a Trump suspension could affect fuel prices" https://t.co/goGJwDm2EN https://t.co/s2CTtPeu6A
US Eases Russian Oil Bans as Iran Fuels Price Surge
Great @business reporting by @DanielPFlatley on US moves to ease restrictions on buying Russian oil. This is all backwards. Russia and Iran are making money while the Strait of Hormuz is shut and global oil prices spike. Iran's oil exports...
Iran's War-Era Oil Exports Surge, Prices Likely Drop
According to this excellent @WSJ story, Iran is today exporting more oil than before war broke out. That’s insane. First order of business for the US Navy is to stop any and all ship traffic out of Iran. That won’t...
War Adds $3‑6 per Barrel Daily, White House Stumped
COLUMN: The White House is running out of ways to curb rising oil prices. "... My working assumption is that the oil market will add $3 to $6 a barrel to the headline price for every day — every single...
Iran Conflict Could Actually Push Oil Prices Down
The war in Iran will lower energy prices By Peter Navarro "Roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade transits the Persian Gulf, much of it through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. When markets price crude oil, they must account for...
Oil Shock Upends Markets; Fed Cut No Longer Expected
There is probably no single individual asset as widely-consequential to global markets than oil. The financial system’s simply not built to adjust smoothly to extreme swings in oil, let alone in the face of third-biggest quarterly jump in 40 years. Global...
US Licenses Russian Oil Sales Amid Iran War Profits
NEW: US Treasury issued a general license for the delivery and sale of Russian oil loaded on vessels as of March 12. Moscow continues to be the single largest beneficiary of the Iran War. https://t.co/oVlT1gzuuN
US Gas Prices Surge 20% in Two Weeks, 30‑year High
Gas prices in the US are up over 20% in the past two weeks (from $2.98/gallon to $3.59/gallon). That's the biggest two-week spike that we've seen in the past 30 years. https://t.co/satpQMppWO
Powell Faces Rate‑cut Pressure as Oil Doubles
Live look at Powell getting the demands to cut rates while oil just spiked 100% https://t.co/qDIcLm6oIA
IEA's One-Month Oil Buffer Signals Looming Global Rationing
The International Energy Agency (IEA) just authorized a 400 million barrel reserve release to offset oil disruptions caused by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That stabilizes markets—for now. However, with global demand at around 100 million...
Brazil Fears Tighter China Soybean Checks Amid Low Imports
🇧🇷Brazilian trade groups are concerned with the tightening of soybean inspections to China, potentially hampering the top exporters' shipments. Doesn't seem like great timing for China after its Jan-Feb imports hit 7-year lows. Now, Chinese meal futures have hit contract highs....
Europe Must Boost Domestic Drilling Amid Energy Crisis
Sure, the price of crude is soaring, but so is the price of natural gas delivered to European and Asian buyers. Regardless of what happens in this war, this energy crisis shows that European countries have to do more drilling....
Market Predicts AAA US Gas Price Hitting $4 by Month‑end
The market thinks the AAA average US gas price will tag $4 by the end of the month $UGA $RB_F @kalshi https://t.co/kwTVTrGRRG https://t.co/L7SpkLzJR4
Near‑term Crude Cheap, 12‑month Forward Near Peak
While crude for next month delivery is still well below the Monday highs, crude for delivery in 12 months is almost back to its recent peak https://t.co/SGyTj8k9S6
Iranian Incentives Mirror Bessent’s Stated Oil Price
in fairness this is the only correct answer, if Bessent says "$xyz" then the Iranians have every incentive to act in a manner that drives oil prices to "$xyz"
Oil Price Expected to Peak Within Six Weeks, Markets Shift
I don't know if the peak oil price will be $125 or $225 but I strongly suspect on a time basis it comes in the next 4-6 weeks, and markets will trade differently after that peak (like June 2022).
Durable Moves Allow Either Repression or Disinflation, Not Both
Nothing new here, and cycles matter + drivers/duration, but I'd note in more durable moves you can repress or disinflate, but you can't do both. The room for repression is def far less, the durability and duration of the drivers in...
Cramer Declares Unwavering Bullish Stance on Oil
Cramer getting sassy about Iran not having the cards to force oil to $200/bbl by citing the US experience in the... Vietnam War? I've LITERALLY NEVER BEEN SO BULLISH. https://t.co/d8799zIp8i
Brent Breaches $100, First Time in 3½ Years
Brent closes the day above $100 a barrel for the first time in three and a half years. Note: during the 2022 crisis, Brent settled above triple-digit level for 110 days. So far in 2026, just one day.
Brent's $47 Swing Shows No Conviction, Just Exposure
Brent crude has traded in a $47 range since late February. $73 to $120 and back to $96. That's not a market. It's a seismograph. Nobody has conviction. Everyone has exposure.
Brent Crude Set to Climb $3+ Daily Amid Iran Tensions
Brent crude price, Iran-War-to-date My expectation is that this rough/steady slope will hope, grinding $3+/bbl higher each and every day this crisis persists, always with the possibility of big lurches higher should Iran successfully take out major regional oil infrastructure. https://t.co/nwGMcg7rja
15 Metric Tons of Silver Withdrawn From SGE, SHFE
Around 15 metric tons net of physical Silver was drained from the SGE & SHFE Silver vaults today.
JPMorgan’s $6,300 Gold Target Signals Dollar Weakness
J.P. Morgan just raised its gold target to $6,300. When the biggest bank on Wall Street tells you to buy the hardest asset, maybe the dollar story isn't as strong as you think. https://t.co/Rt7VeK8qHJ
Iran Conflict Sparks Acute Oil Market Volatility
🚨 Mid-week Iran War and oil market update for Commodity Context subscribers. More regular coverage of the acute volatility across the increasingly strained oil complex in Oil Context Weekly tomorrow. https://t.co/lvkkTTJr9s
Diesel Spikes 32%, Threatening Higher Consumer Prices
Gas prices are up 22% in the past month, but that's for regular unleaded. Diesel is up 32% -- and that's a pass-along price that can impact what we pay for lots of goods.
Today's Oil Prices Are Modest by Historical Standards
Over the past 25 years anual average REAL TERM Brent oil prices were > $100/b in six separate years and were >$150/b four of those (2008, 11, 12, 13). So by historical standards, today’s oil prices aren’t particularly high yet.
Early Input Pricing Shields Farmers Amid Iran War
Friend of mine that runs a large agricultural operation just texted: "We locked in pricing for farm inputs late last year & early this year before the Iran War started, which is good because now our suppliers will not even provide...
Global Oil Prices Affect U.S. Consumers, Regardless of Policy
There also is a world market for oil. When oil prices go up in Europe and Asia, people here pay more. Even a Trump-Energy Secretary should know this.
US‑Iran Conflict Raises Oil Prices, Not Yet a Shock
U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...
Oil Prices Ignored Reserve Supply News, Already Priced In
Oil didn't buy the "supply of reserves" news. Why ? It was already priced in. What's next ? Well , it's a 🧵 1/1
Gas Prices Surge 20.6% in 11 Days, Historic Rise
The chart below shows the national average retail gasoline price from an AAA Motor Club survey. Yesterday was day 11 since the war started on February 28. The middle panel shows the 11-day dollar rise. The current 61-cent rise was exceeded...
U.S. Crude Exports Serve as West’s Strategic Reserve
America’s Strategic Oil Exports @WSJ Great and important read. I still believe the WSJ Editorial Board does some of the most balanced and informed analysis in the media. https://t.co/sxJ6f76VCl The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that its 32 member countries will...
Airfares Rise as Jet‑Fuel
Airfares are beginning to climb as jet-fuel prices surge following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, pushing airlines to raise fares and fuel surcharges while warning of more increases if the conflict drags on. Carriers say travel demand remains strong,...
Saudi Pays Record Tanker Rates to Ship Red Sea Crude
Saudi Arabia is booking more and more super oil tankers at sky high rates (>$450,000 a day vs pre-war levels of $100,000 a day) to shift crude from the Red Sea into global markets.