U.S. Used Cooking Oil Imports Collapse 82% YoY
📉U.S. UCO imports fell off a cliff to start 2026. U.S. imports of waste vegoils (including used cooking oil) dropped to a 3+ year low in January. Volumes were down 82% from January 2025 and no imports were recorded from China for the first time in almost three years. https://t.co/z0F9ZV9LmX
Russia Rakes Up $150 Million Daily From Oil Surge
NEW: Russia is earning up to $150mn a day in extra budget revenues from oil sales amid price rises thanks to the US-Iran war. Moscow has so far earned $1.3bn-$1.9bn from taxes on oil exports and could receive $3.3bn-$4.9bn in total...
US Crude Surges 10%, Volatility Predicted Hormuz Closure
US crude #oil is up nearly 10% - second largest day's rally for the commodity in four years. Looks like the implied volatility was giving a portentous signal ahead of time. It wasn't like the closure of Hormuz was surprising news......
Hormuz Disruption Could Persist for Up to One Month
If Hormuz flows do not resume for a month, that's the worst-case disruption duration my colleagues at @RapidanEnergy and I modeled last June when we mapped out a US-Iran conflict on global oil and LNG markets and prices. We modeled disruption...
Renewables Become Only Viable Exit Amid Global Energy Crisis
Renewables are the only exit strategy: Day 12 (updated) impact of the Israel and US attack, tracking Force Majeure, surcharges, and the explosive inflation behind the headlines FORCE MAJEURE IMPLICATIONS >Shell: FM on all LNG cargoes from Qatar >QatarEnergy: Pretty much totally down,...
Rio Silver Poised for Production, Attractive Buy at $85/Oz
Rio Silver $RYO.V $RYOOF Great buy opp setting up here on Rio Silver with Silver still trading at $85/oz and the company going into production by year end ... https://t.co/FCYB1X4WaD
Jones Act Suspension Hints at Looming Oil Export Limits
If the Trump admin is suspending the Jones Act you better believe that they're pretty darn close to some kind of petroleum export restrictions. Those will make the *domestic* US pricing environment more tolerable for a few weeks—after which it will...
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Economy Across All Sectors
The Iran War could trigger a global economic crisis and you won’t find a better summary of why than this one sentence from Rachel Ziemba below. Yes, this is about gas prices. But it’s also about: - the cost of food...
Oil Near Record Close Despite Falling Short of Early Highs
Oil is still well below its highs from the extreme buying that we saw early Monday morning. But if it closed here for the day, it'd be its highest close yet.
US Fuel Inventories Climb Across Crude, Gasoline, Distillate
U.S. comparative inventory rose 1.5 mmb for the week ending March 6 Crude C.I. rose 1.8 mmb, gasoline rose 1.5 mmb and distillate rose 0.9 mmb #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/bXRNoEFCkI
Gold Stays Flat Despite Safe‑Haven Surge and Tensions
Gold should be exploding right now. Here's why it isn't Oil +8%. Stocks tanking. USD rising on safe haven flows But gold? Flat Meanwhile Iran's new Supreme Leader Khamenei says Strait stays closed warns of US military bases attacks Watch what happens next👇...
Prediction Markets See WTI Futures Still Rising
Prediction markets think WTI futures haven’t peaked yet Market-implied odds of maximum price of front-month contracts this year https://t.co/KJycyDttIE https://t.co/obrkd1ueUb
Disruption at Oman, UAE Oil Ports Could Spike Prices
All eyes & hopes rest on the 2 main oil ports of #MinaAlFahal in Oman and #Fujeirah in UAE if any of these continues to be impacted then it's serious for oil prices. ميناء_الفحل #ميناء_الفجيرة#
Markets Underestimate Iran Conflict’s Oil Shock Potential
Why are oil speculators assuming this war is short and irrelevant? Yesterday I talked to an energy analyst I highly respect, and he waved off the Iran situation. Oil/gas markets are dynamic and flexible, he posited, they can handle it....
Japan Tops U.S. Corn Sales; China Leads Wheat Exports
🇺🇸Japan headlined U.S. corn sales last week, which were above average for the time of year despite falling well below top-end expectations. Mexico & Indonesia led soybean sales, activity from China was relatively low. But China led the week's wheat...
Trump Bought Just 20M Barrels Amid Low Oil Prices
It's pretty amazing that the Trump administration only bought 20MN barrels of oil given oil averaged in the low 60's.
Escalating War, Markets Unmoved by IEA Oil Release
The War Escalates and Markets are Unimpressed with IEA Oil Move: The Middle East war is escalating. The market seems unimpressed with the announcement that strategic oil reserves will be released. The announcement is light on details, such as pace...
Corn Rises, Soy Falls: Money Flow Drives Momentum Trade
#Corn story seems to be getting more and more bullish and the #soybean story seems to be getting much more negative. This isn't a production issue for soybeans such as hot and dry weather cutting the crop. The...
Commodity Hoarding Signals New Regime, Not Temporary Spike
Carlyle’s Currie warning on the risks of upward pressure on all commodities. Says hoarding can lead to sustained upward pressure and this marks a regime change, not a spike. References post dotcom bubble (China entrance to WTO; gulf war; etc)...
Oil Prices Now Reflect True Disruption Risk
What happens with oil prices is all about whether risk premia are accurately priced. Initially, markets were massively complacent. Then there was all-out panic. Now, at between $90-100 per barrel, we're accurately pricing risk of a serious disruption... https://t.co/evJVri93wZ https://t.co/EZteEvaeo1
China Extends Ban, Halts BHP Iron Ore Purchases
China is expanding its ban on steel mills buying BHP iron ore again, adding another product to the blacklist. They've been negotiating for BHP for ~6 months now and there's no end in sight. This is the second ban in...
1970s Food Shocks Outpaced Energy Crises, Says White
"It's an underappreciated fact that the food shocks in the 1970s were larger than the energy shocks" -Simon White, BBG
SHFE Silver Inflows Surge to Two‑Month High
SHFE #Silver Tide Turns 🌊 🚨The Shanghai Futures Exchange just recorded its largest single-day inflow in two and a half months
Shanghai Gold Premiums Stay Firm, 14% Above LBMA
$97.7/oz in Shanghai vs. $85.64/oz in London premiums in #china remains firm, trading 14.1% above #LBMA benchmark
IEA Warns War Could Cause Unprecedented Oil Disruption
The IEA says the war in turning into the biggest oil disruption in world history https://t.co/UJZqGyrhUP
10% Oil Spike Adds 0.
“Our rules of thumb are that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices boosts headline and core PCE inflation by 0.2pp and 0.04pp, respectively, while lowering GDP growth by around 0.1pp. The growth impact from a temporary price increase that...
Renewables Can Replace LNG Faster than EVs Replace Oil
What are the consequences for energy markets and the transition of a potential long disruption to the Strait of Hormuz? TLDR: It’s a *lot* easier to replace 20% of LNG (15% of natgas supply) with wind and solar than it...
Europe Repeats 2022 Energy Tactics Amid Fossil Dependence
Energy policy déjà vu in Europe. Oil reserve release. Gas price cap debate. State aid on the table. The toolkit looks like 2022 because fossil fuel dependence remains. Renewables and electrification reduce exposure. Crisis management does not. https://t.co/PhWMbn21b8
Goldman Predicts Brent Spikes to $98, Then Drops to $71
Goldman > Our commodity strategists now expect Brent to average $98 in March and April—up 40% from the 2025 average—before falling back to $71 by 2026Q4.
Iran Ramps up Energy Attacks as Oil Stays Sub‑$100
Overnight Iran reacted to the IEA's oil release intensifying its attacks on regional energy targets, including two small-sized fuel tankers in Iraq. Tehran knows oil is what could force President Trump to end the war early. Still, both Brent and...
Strategic Reserve Release Too Slow to Offset Deficit
Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but people should know: For the 400 million barrels of oil to be released from strategic reserves (announced today), the flow rate — the rate in which it can be released — is...
Oil Reserve Release Merely Patches Deep Supply Shock
>> Historic oil reserve release is only a band-aid on a gaping supply shock https://t.co/C6DC07LD19 @ronbousso1
Iran Continues Massive Oil Shipments to China via Hormuz
🚨Iran is still pushing oil through the Strait of Hormuz: At least 11.7 million barrels of Iranian crude have passed through the strait since February 28, all headed to China. Many tankers have "gone dark," switching off their GPS tracking systems...👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-iea-has-proposed-the-largest-emergency-oil-release-from-strategic-reserves-in-history
Trump Releases 172 Million Barrels From Strategic Reserve
Given the Trump' Administration decision to release 172 mb form the SPR, this is a must watch (from November 2022)
US Food Inflation Accelerates Amid Mixed Category Trends
Food Inflation in America. Not good. Looking at major categories of foods. Some continued to spike (beef, coffee), others continued to plunge (eggs), others changed less. Overall food inflation accelerated on top of already very high prices https://t.co/taRrQJWe4I https://t.co/IdfYxkT1G2
China Escalates to Immediate Refined Fuel Export Ban
China has just ordered an immediate ban on refined fuel exports in March to manage any potential domestic fuel shortages. A week ago they asked refiners nicely and just targeted new contracts, so this is a step up
Oil Rebounds to $100, Heralding Broader Economic Shock
Oil price back to $100. Even though the EIA said member countries will release 400m barrels of oil. At this rate…this is just the beginning the oil shock will send to the economy, supply chain and consumer price.
Quarter‑billion Barrels Lost From Hormuz Shutdown
We've already lost roughly a quarter *billion* barrels in cumulative oil supply thus far in the Strait of Hormuz stoppage.
Markets Brace for Extended Oil Shortage Despite IEA Release
The IEA just released 400 million barrels to cover a 20-day shortage. Oil markets are pricing in something longer. Private credit funds are starting to gate withdrawals. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/G7C0qy6noj
Tankers Attacked, Brent Nears $100, Middle East Risk Spikes
Brent crude #oil is flirting dangerously close to the $100/bbl level once again after two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, underscoring the broader risks to energy assets across the Middle East and overshadowing a record oil release from the...
Oil Spike Fuels Inflation Fears, Squeezes Stocks
Crude oil prices rose - feeding inflation fears and punishing the stock market- despite an IEA release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. Now what? #crudeoil #oilprices #IranWar #stocks #stockmarket #inflation #macro #trading #dollar https://t.co/jccqS0V3d3
Gas Oil Retests Support, Poised for Further Upside
Gas Oil has retest support and should now push higher, although one more retest is possible https://t.co/NI5aQRpZPM
Iran Conflict Fuels Gulf Tanker Attacks, Crude Surge
About to jump on CNBC @asiasquawkbox to talk about the Iran War, the Strait of Hormuz, the latest tanker attacks in the Gulf, and tonight’s jump in the price of crude. Tune in! https://t.co/myMaR7VRA7
SPR Release Announcement Triggers Panic, Fuels Oil Prices
In case you are wondering why oil prices continued to rise despite the US announcement of a massive SPR release: In the SPR literature, more than 30 years ago, experts warned that announcing an SPR release might signal crisis and cause...
Supply Shocks and Politics Won’t Push Oil Prices Down
exploding tankers, the us releasing 40% of its remaining oil reserve, and trump bragging about how well things are going: not indications for low oil prices.
Brent Crude Nears $100 Again, Reason Unclear
Brent crude pops back toward $100 because, well, hard to say why it wasn’t there already https://t.co/SGjbVYODt2
SPR Buffer Brief; Hormuz Delay Drains Reserves Fast
A 400M barrel release can cushion the shock, but only briefly. If Hormuz shipping isn’t restored by late March, losses outpace the reserve fast—about 80M barrels per week. The SPR buys time, not supply. #OilMarkets #SPR #EnergySecurity #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis
Physical Supply Shortage Freezes Oil Market Despite Premiums
The oil market isn’t clearing Available barrels are being offered at extreme premiums, but refiners are refusing to buy When prices rise this fast, markets freeze. The problem isn’t cost. It’s physical supply. https://t.co/bjYMZAsRUg #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity
Hormuz Closure Disrupts Global Energy, Food, Metal Supplies
Good morning from Hong Kong. Day 13 of the Iran War. Hormuz effectively closed, impacting not just global energy supply chain but also food and metals. https://t.co/yXfDXHwzMN
US Oil Prices Jump 70% Since December,
US oil prices extend gains to rise above $94/barrel, now up +70% since December 2025.