Oil Loss Anywhere Sends Prices Soaring Everywhere, U.S. Knows
A barrel of oil lost anywhere is a barrel lost everywhere. It’s a global market and acute scarcity in the Middle East/Asia will inevitably spike prices in North America as markets work to incentivize cargoes to fill the hole. US foreign policy has always acknowledged this fact.
Silver Vault Drops 2.6M Oz, Down 142 Tons Weekly
comex silver vault update Registered: 79M oz (2,457 tons) Daily Change : -2.6 M oz (81 Tons) left the vault on Thursday WTD Change : - 142Tons
Newsom's Refinery Closures Drive Sky‑high Gas Prices
Newsom drove one refinery to shut down last year and one that will shut down in another month. Our gas prices were already sky high because of these actual and forecasted closures - it forced us to import gas and...
IEA Taps One-Third of Reserves, Biggest Release Since 1973
IEA just released 400M barrels from emergency reserves. That's one-third of their total stockpile. For context, the largest prior release was during the 1973 oil crisis. This is not normal. $WTI https://t.co/pSOwsqWZJ0
Oil Prices Held Below $100 by Trump Victory Bet
Correct. I’ve said since day one that with a disruption of this magnitude, the only thing preventing oil prices from soaring much higher than $100 is a market bet that Trump finds a way to declare mission accomplished very soon.
Early Hormuz Closure Modeling Shows Real Risk, Prepares Clients
Not nasty — prescient. Our Battlespace and Barrel Flow report modeled 7- and 30-day Hormuz closure scenarios (among others) in June 2025 because the risk was real and our clients needed to be prepared. No one's enjoying this.
Surplus Supply Likely Drives Gas Prices Back Toward $2
Gasoline Surge Above $3 May Fuel Reversion Toward $2 - The national average gasoline price has jumped above $3 a gallon on the back of the Iran war, which may fuel reversion toward $2 by year-end. My graphic highlights a...
Follow Josh for Priceless Fertilizer Market Insights
If you’re following the fertilizer stuff you need to follow Josh. His main thing is not speculation (actually performs a service for the world by helping farmers) but his ags market insights were invaluable to me during early 2022.
Use a Simple Mental Model for the Oil Shock
A mental model for how to think about the current oil shock: As I said I’m sure 10 different economists have 10 differing econometric models on what price that flip occurs but you get the idea
Oil Prices Set to Test 61.8% and 78.6% Retracements
$USOIL - Closed above the 50% retracement level on Friday. Next week it's headed to at least the 61.8% retracement level at 103 and possibly to the 78.6% retracement level at 110. https://t.co/vUmCz2yZlr
WTI Crude Surges 9% to $98.71, Monday Gains Expected
WTI futures price rose $7.81 (9%) from $90.90 to $98.71 week ending March 13 Higher price movement is likely on Monday based on 12-month spreads #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/qQdFuuupRU
Tiny Supply Cut Triggers Huge Gas Price Surge
If you need 100% of something and I take 2% of it away, you don't have enough of it. So, then, the market needs to reduce your demand by 2%. As it turns out, Americans will pay a lot for...
Yuan Can't Fund Hormuz Oil Flows, Dollar Remains Essential
Paying in Yuan for Hormuz passage doesn't work, writes @biancoresearch Oil markets run on liquidity and deep capital markets. China’s financial system can’t absorb global oil flows, There’s no way to verify settlement currency at sea. #OilMarkets #Hormuz #DollarSystem #Geopolitics
Federal Intervention Shapes Oil Prices Amid Iran Tensions
Thank you @JMathieuReports and @tylerskendall for having me on @business Balance of Power yesterday, just before Secretary Burgum, to talk about oil, Iran, SPR, pump prices, and the federal government intervening in oil futures markets. @RapidanEnergy https://t.co/0RqDeHN4qa
Hard Assets Surge While Financials Falter in 2026
Hard Assets vs. Financial Assets in a Multipolar World 2026 Coal $CNR +33% Oil & Gas $XOP +33% Natural Gas $FCG +27% Gold $GLD +16% Uranium $URNM +16% Silver $SIL +13% Copper $COPX +6% Nasdaq $QQQ -3% Mag 7 $MAGS -9% Banks $KBWB -10% Bitcoin $IBIT -19%
Energy Leads YTD; Financials and Bitcoin Lag
Brent & WTI crude oil leading YTD, Energy strong, gold hanging in there Financials & bitcoin weakest https://t.co/B5BLF2EwNT
IEA Warns Hormuz Crisis Could Trigger Historic Oil Disruption
‘The largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market’: IEA’s take on the Hormuz crisis https://t.co/H9zKo9tCi4
Oil Prices Unfazed by Massive Supply Shock
Brent above $100. WTI near $99. Strait of Hormuz shut. 20% of global oil at risk. IEA released 400M barrels from reserves — the largest ever. And it barely moved the needle. $WTI $USO https://t.co/Ue451KrbMz
Silver Poised Above 20‑week MA, Limited Upside
$Silver - I expect it to hit the 20 week MA again next week or the following week. If it holds above the 20 week MA it will likely move higher into late April but not make a new ATH....
Gold Holds Above 10‑Week MA, Eyes April ATH
$Gold - Closed lower for a 2nd week in a row but it's still above the 10 week MA. As long as it's above the 10 week MA this is likely to be another consolidation that will lead to a...
Oil Shocks Ripple Through Every Product, Exposing Economic Vulnerability
Why oil shocks still hit everything we buy. “We should be very concerned, the longer the conflict lasts, the more prices will rise and ripple through the economy.” From petrol to plastics, another fossil fuel crisis shows how exposed economies remain...
India’s Crude Basket Shows Persistent Historical Volatility
Crude has been a rough player in the past too, in India. Our average crude basket, yearly, looks like this : https://t.co/vC7nJ09nnd
US LNG Demand Soars, Venture Global Expands Plant
MORE US LNG EXPORTS 🇺🇸 🚢 Venture Global will move forward with an $8.6 billion expansion of its third LNG plant in Louisiana Global demand for US LNG is surging as the war in the Middle East cuts off shipments from...
Gold Set to Outperform Amid Oil Crisis
Frank Holmes: Why Gold Could Be the Biggest Winner of the Oil Crisis https://t.co/1FnUMR2dSZ via @USFunds
Oil’s Gold Ratio Stagnates, Signaling Higher Resource Prices
Despite the recent rally, oil priced in gold has barely budged. That puts into perspective how undervalued oil may still be. And no, this is not negative for gold. If anything, it reinforces the idea that we are entering an era of structurally...
Gold’s Safe‑Haven Appeal Fading: Overlooked Factor Emerging
Is the gold rush over? The safe haven appeal seems to be fizzling out in gold and silver, the reason is probably something most are overlooking.
Markets Stay Optimistic Despite Unprecedented Oil Volume Shock
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook https://t.co/QsizGVkoI5 Prior oil shocks in 1973 and 1979 involved far larger price increases than what we have seen so far. Yet this shock involves a hit to volumes that is unprecedented...
US Oil Prices Spike Above $99, Market Control Falters
US oil prices surge above $99/barrel, now up nearly +10% on the week. Once again, the US appears to be losing control of the oil market.
War on Iran Spikes Fertilizer Prices, Fuels Farmer Backlash
MORE COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN: Fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf are stuck. Fertilizer prices have jumped about 30%. US FARMERS ARE STARTING TO TURN AGAINST TRUMP. https://t.co/IwXKoWCUj0
Oil Prices Dictate Yields and SPX Until $
Oil = 10yr = -SPX 1 variable market continued for another week and will likely persist until oil drops back below ~$70 when the Strait is back in business. https://t.co/349BroE6sP
Can Gold Reach $5,000 While DXY Stays Above 100?
Anyone know how we could possibly have gold over $5,000 with the DXY over $100? https://t.co/S8n1xWP4PR
64% Likelihood Oil Surpasses $110/Barrel by March
JUST IN: 64% chance Crude Oil is over $110/barrel by the end of March https://t.co/mW0x32Mq3g
Gas $5, Oil Spike Signals Higher Prices Ahead
Gas is already pushing five dollars a gallon here, and remember this: when oil prices spike, gas prices lag behind. Which means this isn’t the peak. It’s the warning. Are we winning yet?!
EU to Suspend Duty‑free Sugar Imports for a Year
EU is set to suspend some duty-free sugar imports for a year https://t.co/Air1ME1Muc via @LyubovEUWorld https://t.co/tBY6hUyKNr
Chemical Shortage Hits Asia as Naphtha Supply Dries Up
More than “Five Asian petrochemical plants have declared force majeure in the past ten days because their naphtha supply was cut off at the Strait of Hormuz. The emergency reserves are crude oil. The shortage is chemicals.”
Brent Backwardation Narrows at Front, Widens Overall
While the prompt Brent timespread has actually weakened a bit from last Friday, it's largely because the rest of the curve is rallying more aggressively than the front. Brent curve backwardation slightly shallower at the front vs last Friday, but backwardation...
Copper Inventories Surge While Prices Hover Near Record Highs
I know Shanghai Copper inventories are at a record and believe CME may be the same...and yet HG is still not far off record high prices. Central bank gold buying - I feel a good proxy for anti-fiat shift -...
Oil Market Bets on Short US‑Iran Conflict, Quick Hormuz Re‑opening
Oil prices still anticipate short war or early re-opening of the Strait Oil traders are still betting war between the United States and Iran will end relatively quickly - or that the United States will soon be in a position to...
Wheat Turns Green as Supply Concerns Drive Market
$WEAT Daily. Big red to green in Wheat so far today. Market taking supply issues seriously, coupled with most of Wall St. underweight ags. https://t.co/qBclTKMZNJ
Decoupling Gas From Electricity Prices: Reform Ideas
NEW: Why does gas set the price of electricity – and is there an alternative? Make yourself a tea (or grab a beer??) and enjoy my Friday longread on marginal pricing, ideas for market reform – & how to break the link btwn...
Trump Pushes Fed Cut as Oil Spikes Amid Iran Conflict
As oil prices surged on Thursday during the intensifying Iran war, President Donald Trump again urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, even as markets increasingly bet that rising energy costs would keep inflation elevated and delay...
Refined Product Prices, Not Crude, Will Drive Demand Collapse
Crude prices aren't what will ultimately drive the necessary demand destruction should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed. That job will fall to refined product prices, the things we as consumers actually consume. Singapore spot jet fuel prices are there already, over...
API and CME Resist White House Oil‑Price Cuts
The American Petroleum Institute and CME (owner of the top US commodity exchange) are both pushing against some of the ideas the White House is floating to bring oil prices down. Reflexively, one would think that Joe Biden is...
Copper‑Gold Ratio Distorted by Gold Surge, Awaiting Normalization
When will the Copper-Gold ratio 'normalize' such that it will once again stand as a reflection of economic health? The unusual surge in gold these past months is still distorting it. Would be good to have a clear reading from...
Gulf Oil Shock Drives Naphtha Prices up 50%
"Gulf oil shock deepens crisis for Asia’s petrochemicals industry" https://t.co/4C3WI6qHaW "Prices of naphtha have jumped by half since last month to $875 a tonne" https://t.co/rNT2eRMXls
Oil Prices Set to Remain High Through Midterms
Oil prices aren't expected to fall anytime soon. Futures markets suggest oil prices are very likely to be high high during the midterms. https://t.co/5A4nd2c298
Hormuz Closure Would Crash Markets, Boost Commodities and Inflation
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens...
Chinese Zinc Shipments From Iran Cancelled Amid Conflict
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
Conab Slightly Lowers Crop Estimates, Boosts Soybean Export Forecast
🇧🇷Conab made very slight trims to its estimates for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and corn crops. First-crop corn production went up, but that was offset by a reduction to the heavily-exported second crop. Projected soybean exports rose from last month. https://t.co/vXR8g5NOEG
Dubai Physical Crude Trades $40 Above Brent Futures
Crude futures aren't telling the full story. See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below. Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical...