Oil Prices Hit $100, Crisis Likely Deepens
"This may be a war but it's also perhaps the biggest energy supply/logistics crisis we've ever seen in modern history:" Mizuho's Jordan Rochester. "Oil is now on a $100pb handle and it might be there to stay," with greater likelihood of $130-150pb scenarios as time goes on.
IEA Emergency Oil Releases Have Surged, 2022 Tops History
History of IEA collective oil emergecy stockpiles releases (and size; note the size was volume offered): 1991: First Gulf War (~75 million) 2005: Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (~60 million) 2011: Libya civil war (~60 million) 2022: Russia-Ukraine (~180 million in two tranches)
Gulf Bottlenecks Trap OPEC+ Capacity, Limiting Supply Boost
“Most OPEC+ spare capacity (about 4 mb/d) is trapped behind Gulf export bottlenecks, rendering near‑term policy interventions ineffective. Even Saudi Arabia’s pre‑conflict ramp‑up toward 10.9 mb/d does little to ease global supply unless export routes re‑open.” - SocGen
Brent Holds $106‑108 as IEA Stock Decision Looms
Crude in a holding pattern -- likely short-lived -- with Brent at $106-108/bbl, awaiting IEA stock release decision.
Oil Supply Drop Equals ~4 Days, Not 20
Current oil supply is not zero. It is 20% less than before. So this would mean 20 days of consumption.
Bangladesh Shuts Universities to Curb Energy Demand Amid Crisis
Demand destruction as we speak, starting with Bangladesh. Thailand and China curbed exports of diesel and gas. Vietnam will do so next.
IEA Warns Surplus Could Turn Deficit Amid Middle East Turmoil
Latest from the IEA: - "Speaking with governments" and "closely monitoring" events in the Middle East. - Says global oil market has been "in significant surplus" since the start of 2025. However, "prolonged disruptions could flip the market into a deficit". - IEA...
Brent and WTI Crude Surge to $119.5 per Barrel
Brent crude futures LCOc1 climbed to a high of $119.50 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 to $119.48 a barrel.
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Sparks Worst Energy Crisis Since 1970s
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the worst global energy crisis since the 1970s Who’s to blame for this?
Qatar Outage Wipes Out LNG Glut, Risks Deficit
LNG GLUT CANCELED FOR ANOTHER YEAR 🚢⚠️ Qatar's production halt is likely to remove most of a glut Morgan Stanley forecast for this year. The bank now sees a 2m ton overhang Any extension in the Qatar outage beyond one month “quickly...
Refiners' Barrel Scramble Fuels Price Spike, Not Speculation
A really important feature of this current market is that it’s physical participants’ (ie refiners) scramble for barrels—and not spec sentiment—that’s driving insane $ spike & explosion of backwardation We already saw this last week, when spec was net ~flat despite...
Oil Gains Shrink to Just 27% of Prior Level
One of the strangest headlines I've had to write: Oil pares gains (today) to just 27% now https://t.co/W2IOR839WN
Trump's Aggressive Foreign Policy Fuels Higher Oil Prices
Last month I wrote a column about whether Trump could take credit for low oil prices. Trump loves to talk about how much he wants/pushes for low prices, but I argued his aggressive foreign policy was a massive bullish driver of...
Holding Crude Inventory Lets You Profit $30 per Barrel
If you have crude inventory right now you’re selling every single barrel in your tanks (& buying back 6 mths down curve for $30/bbl less pocketing the diff) If you’re not, you’re in a really tough spot because you actually need...
Corn Ethanol Future: $13 Corn, $27 Beans, Flex‑Fuel Viable
Corn will eventually trade at $13 Beans will eventually trade at $27 Maybe not this decade, but someday Corn ethanol is a fuel My truck (Nissan) is approved for flex-fuel (FFV) It can run on gas that is 80% corn ethanol $ZC_F $ZS_F https://t.co/CYZjGOzeLt
Small Truckers May Idle Rigs Amid Fuel Price Volatility
If past oil surges are a guide, we could see small trucking operators park their rigs, waiting for fuel prices to stabilize.
Brent Prompt Timespread Hits Record $9+, Signaling Unprecedented Tightness
The Brent crude prompt timespread is currently over *$9/bbl*, a new all-time record. Timespreads measure the steepness of the crude futures curve, which at the front (prompt) reflects how tight—loose if neg—the spot market is. The oil market has literally never been...
Oil Spikes to $110, Framework Holds—Briefly
This is actually looking like a great framework after oil hit $110 tonight… Aged pretty well for now. Can change in about ten minutes tho 😂
Oil Surges Past $100, Inflation Data Gains Weight
Middle East tensions spike oil past $100 and shake inflation forecasts. This week's CPI and PCE data could pack extra punch as rate cut hopes fade. 🟢 Open https://t.co/dcFgI6Pdro
Brent Crude Jumps 25% Amid Middle East Conflict
*BRENT CRUDE OIL EXTENDS SURGE TO 25% ON MIDEAST WAR DISRUPTION In addition to rallying 25% today (Sunday night), May Brent Crude oil futures are up 56% since last Wednesday's low (March 4th). https://t.co/Afycm5leiS
Asia Faces Deep Shock as Energy Prices Surge
We discussed on the impact of the crisis on Asia and it is a big negative shock for the region as we are very oil and gas dependent & we are importers of that from the Middle East. Price higher =...
US Oil Futures Surge 60%—Record Monthly Gain
US oil futures are now on track to rise +60% this month, marking their largest monthly gain in history. https://t.co/P4ciDNwr85
Oil Surges, Gold Slides as Dollar Rallies
Oil spiking to $107 while gold falls. The dollar is strengthening as global markets panic. Both moves happening at once. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/Og6roiaoNd
Strait Closures Trigger Sulfur Shortages, Slowing Nickel and Copper Output
The longer the Straits are closed, the more we will see unexpected chokepoints emerge. Case in point: nickel refiners in Indonesia and copper miners in Africa might have to slow production for want of sulphur
Self‑declared Oil and Geopolitics Expert Shares Crude Price
If anyone asks — I am now an oil and geopolitics expert. In other news, check out the price of crude https://t.co/FDyPB506SG
WTI Cracks $140, Near 2008 Record
After adding more than $40 a barrel in a little more than five trading sessions, the nominal record for West Texas Intermediate futures—$145.29, set on July 3, 2008—no longer seems out of reach @WSJmarkets https://t.co/rlxj1lnh5N
Corn Poised for Rally as Funds Stay on Sidelines
📈Speculative bullishness across U.S. grain/oilseed futures is at a three-year high, but funds haven't even begun to tap the potential that lies in corn. Does this mark the start of a run-up in corn? What could be the limiting factors? I covered...
Oil Price Spikes $40 in a Week; Panic Insufficient
People aren’t freaking out enough The situation is not under control Price of oil up 40 bucks in a week
Brent Hits $110 at Open, Analysts Ponder Oil's Next Move
Brent surged to a high of $110 at market open Monday. What next for oil? Speaking to Singapore's 938 Live Radio at 9.00 am SGT. https://t.co/xI65gMZvag
Don't Chase Brent Spike; Hormuz Closure Unlikely to Worsen
Brent is $106 and markets are in full panic mode. They were slow to price the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but at this point the Strait isn't going to get any more closed. If anything, it'll...
Taiwan Caps Weekly Oil Hikes, Likely Freezes Power Rates
Taiwan's government will set a weekly cap on oil price increases to help contain domestic inflation, local media reports 🇹🇼🛢️ Fuel prices to be adjusted overall by ~5% this week The likelihood of freezing electricity tariffs in April is high https://t.co/tTWfUV2wiI https://t.co/LgRs7ClOH7
Gulf War III Cuts Global Oil Supply by 20%
Yeeps: @Bob_McNally of @RapidanEnergy "Gulf War III has disrupted ~20% of global oil supply for nine days and counting – more than double the previous record set during the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, which disrupted just under 10%."
Historic Oil Supply Loss Doubles Suez Crisis, No Spare Capacity
Compared to the last maximum disruption during the 1956-1957 Suez Crisis (as a percentage of total liquids demand), this represents the largest oil supply loss in history, by a factor of two. Worse, unlike in past crises, there's zero spare capacity...
Buy Distant Futures at Discount, Earn Risk Premium
[looks at Brent curve] Gary Gorton voice: "investors can earn a risk premium by buying distant commodity futures at a discount to spot"
Gas Prices Likely Over $4.50, Threatening Trump's Appeal
According to @Polymarket, there is a 64% chance of average US gas prices surpassing $4.50/gallon this month. THE WINDS OF WAR = HIGHER GASOLINE PRICES = MORE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS FOR TRUMP. https://t.co/yN19wtznw8
War Fuels Fertilizer Crisis, Threatens Asian Economies
The war’s not stopping because of some pain at the American pump. The implications for global fertilizer markets (ammonia, sulphur) are probably going to be as big of a deal as the energy disruptions in several months. Asian economies are in...
Oil Prices Surge Past $100, Accelerating EV and Solar Shift
Oil futures over $100, which is going to shock folks — but I’m old enough to remember $140-150 peaks in the past (inflation adjusted) Only upside, is that folks will lean into EVs and solar if this lasts more than...
India’s Fertilizer Reliance Highlights Asia’s Supply Vulnerability
Asia supply of oil, gas & fertiliser is rather concentrated. We are seeing a massive supply shock to the most important input of modern life: food and transport.
Inflationary Assets Surge; Food Price Spikes May Spark Unrest
$105/bbl A few months ago many said this would never happen. Never bet against inflationary assets in an inflationary era. Deglobalization is structural no cyclical. Watch food prices next. In a world of extreme inequality, with a Fed that needs lower rates to keep...
WTI Could Hit $115 If Gas Gains Replicate
If the front-month WTI crude oil future matches natural gas’s 100% gain in 2026 to its January peak, it would reach about $115 a barrel -- then what by the midterms? Gas has reversed all of those gains. Spiking crude can be...
Lag And
Hey energy experts, what's the lag, in days, from a change in wholesale gasoline futures to retail (AAA average) prices? And what's a good rule of thumb on the spread/mutiple between the two? (Answer in DM's if you prefer.)
Brent Crude Nears $110, Signaling Economic Strain
Behold, the global economy cracking. Brent crude approaching $110/bbl, up >$16 higher since Friday’s close. https://t.co/exH8mOBUXy
WTI Crude Surges Over 21% Past $100
WTI crude has shot up as much as 21.7% immediately after the Asia session open. We are well above $100/barrel. #Oil #OilPrices #IranWar2026 https://t.co/vC2re37nrC
Oil Spikes 20% as Brent Nears $110, Risk Assets Tumble
Oil prices opened about 20% higher in Asia on Monday. Brent crude near $110 now. Risk assets are in for a terrible session today https://t.co/iLDxgMZZxb
Brent Surpasses $110 Amid Hormuz Turmoil – Outlook?
Join us today in an X Space for X Subscribers: 🚨Hormuz Chaos: Brent Blasts Past $110 — What's Next for Oil?🚨 Today, Sunday, March 8, 9:00 PM US EST, 8:00 PM US CST No link now. Will open the Space on time.
Shift to Risk‑Off Grain Sales, Bonds Gain Safety
May be starting to move in to a market of instead of buy grains and soy for an inflationary trade into sell grains and soy in a “risk off” everywhere type of trade. Gold and silver are sure not...
Oil Spikes 13% to $100, Nudging Inflation Up
Oil prices surge another 13% to $100 a barrel, after the biggest weekly gain since 1993
U.S. Gas Prices Jump 46¢, Diesel 83¢ in Week
The turmoil is already hitting Americans’ wallets. Regular gasoline across the U.S. costs 46 cents a gallon more than it did a week ago, according to AAA, while diesel has become 83 cents more expensive @WSJmarkets @DavidUberti https://t.co/QZd9ArOPkx
WTI Surpasses Brent, Signaling Market Shift
Hey @chigrl How common is it to see WTI>Brent and what does it signify please? “West Texas Intermediate surged as much as 15% to $104.61 a barrel at the open after last week adding a record 36%. Brent climbed above $102.” @business
Oil Futures Top $100 Amid Middle East Tensions
Oil futures surge above $100 for the first time since 2022 🚨 🛢️ Brent contract jumps more than 10% as the conflict in the Middle East continues https://t.co/KgPOv96YdC