Iran Conflict May Trigger 1970s‑style Oil Shock
This may not be WWIII. But it could be the 1930s moment of our era, writes @nfergus He notes, if the Iran war drags on and oil flows break, the shock could rival the 1970s. I'D SAY WE'RE ALREADY THERE WITH OIL https://t.co/fAxMPfm0mI #geopolitics #energy #ColdWarII #oilmarkets #risk
Oil Jumps 35%—Largest Weekly Gain Since 1983
Oil surges 35% this week for biggest gain in futures trading history dating back to 1983: CNBC $XLE $USO
Back‑end Oil Futures Boost Equities Despite Physical Short Squeeze
Andy makes a great point here around potential L/S positioning in the oil and gas space. I think chasing the physical commodities up a tree here is dangerous but I still really like oil and nat gas equities for two...
Gas Prices Rise 27 Cents, War Hits Wallet
Since last week, average US gasoline prices are up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/2wqMMXwNZP
Gold Positioning Flushed; Long GLD and GDX
New @ForwardGuidance chartbook just dropped for this week's episode. Wanted to call out a few we did not discuss live on the pod. Takeaway: Gold positioning length has been absolutely flushed (and these charts are few days old, before the recent...
China Halts Fuel Exports as Oil Shock Spikes Prices
Bracing for an oil shock, China ordered refiners to halt new diesel and gasoline export contracts and cancel existing shipments. From a week ago, their diesel prices are up 13.5%, gasoline up 11%. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE =...
Gold Bulls Near Perfect Fundamentals; Dip Likely Brief
Perfect fundamental picture is almost set for Gold bulls Although if a Geopolitical de-escalation happens , it can cause a dip ( but very likely it will be quickly bought ) It's about time now only
Rising $100 Oil Prices May Dampen Middle East Conflict
With Oil prices nearing $100 already , risks of a potential de-escalation keep on rising. I may be wrong , maybe oil prices will remain elevated for months , who knows , I am just saying what has the higher probability...
Policy Choices Cost US Rare Earths Dominance
The backstory on exactly how the US ceded its rare earths/critical minerals dominance is here --> https://t.co/m6IQmzrJHT
China's Anger Grows as Oil Spikes, Summit Uncertain
Grumbling out of China is getting louder as crude pushes higher....... I am leaning now 50/50 that the meeting with XI and Trump even happens now. Hope I am wrong because would like to see it. Time will...
Gas Demand Plummets 59% as Solar, Batteries Surge
How low can gas go? Down 59% in 2026 vs 2023 so far. 14th straight and 41 of 64 days in 2026 with WWS meeting >100% of demand for part of the day. Demand also down 3% vs '23 Solar up 62%; batteries...
Oil Spikes 43% in Two Months, Trump Eyes Hormuz
BTW, oil rallied an additional 43% over the next 2 months. Trump will do everything he can to open the strait of Hormuz and prevent a similar outcome. As I noted in an earlier post this week, I expect it...
Oil Spikes 16%, RSI Hits 1990 Gulf War Levels
$USOIL - We're witnessing an extreme development today. Crude oil is up 16% currently. The 14 day RSI is above 89. The last time it closed above 89 was in August 1990, during the Gulf war. https://t.co/Fl62P7oRcE
Commodities Surge to New 120‑min Momentum Highs, Russia Slides
NG, CL, S, W, CD - all made new momentum highs on 120 minute charts. (Rus made new momo lows on 120 minute)..
War-Driven Oil Spikes Hint at Further Upside, Dollar Softens
In the 10 days after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Brent rose 32%. We're now up 25% since the war with Iran began, which - to me - says there's more upside. Given all this, the Dollar is trading soft...
Iran Conflict May Prompt US to Lift Russian Oil Sanctions
My friend & oil expert Javier Blas reports just what I’ve been anticipating: that the US-Israeli war on Iran would force the US to lift sanctions on Russian oil. https://t.co/4VIvPSwm63
Cboe Crude Oil Volatility Spikes to 2020 High
A Cboe measure of crude oil volatility has surged to its highest level since 2020 https://t.co/4FBZMvXK9Y
Brent Crude Jumps to $91, Up 25% Weekly
JUST IN: Brent crude oil price surges to $91, up 25% in the past 7 days.
Fed Rate Cuts Ahead Spark Explosive Metals Rally
Metals and miners have recently pulled back as investors suddenly think the Fed won’t be as dovish. Wait until they realize the policymakers are cornered into cutting rates regardless of inflation accelerating, just to keep the government’s debt affordable. That’s an explosive...
Oil Rises While Mag 7 Shows Bearish Signals
Friday's Playbook: Oil Surging. Bearish Signals Across the Mag 7. See How We’re Positioning. https://t.co/Ab25axAjJe via @hedgeye
US Wins Over Iran, Reshapes Global Oil Power
"U.S. Success Against Iran Could Be a Game Changer for World Oil Security," @WSJ https://t.co/ICXqOkIlg2 If Iran, along with Venezuela, is soon ruled by a regime friendly or at least not hostile toward the U.S., that would neutralize two oil exporters...
WTI Surge Pushes US Gas to $3
With WTI now at $87, the oil price spike is now definitely in the big-enough-to-matter-to-the-US-domestic-economy zone. National average gas price is headed to about $3.80; was just $2.90 at start of Feb. I expect this increase will prove extremely popular.
Cattle Prices Surge Ahead of Other Commodities Amid Inflation
So do the cattle look at the inflationary trade taking place and go higher or do they look at the equities and the consumer being hurt by higher energy products and a slowing economy possibly and come under pressure....
Hormuz Delay Boosts VLCC Rates, Atlantic Shift Looms
They all said Hormuz closure would be brief. What if they were wrong? ▶️Baltic Exchange’s MEG-China VLCC index reaches new high of $485,959 per day; MEG-Singapore VLCC index is at $507,709 per day ▶️VLCCs are loading Saudi crude at Red Sea pipeline...
Jobs Data Sparks Early Volatility Across Crypto, Oil, Tech
🔥 Here’s my #stickynote for March 6, 2026: Big macro morning with Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales at 8:30am — these numbers could move the entire market at the open. Expect volatility right out of the gate as traders react to...
Iran's Threat to Oil Tankers Could Trigger Market Crash
Iran is getting bombed to smithereens. If oil tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz resumes in any meaningful fashion, Iran has every incentive to blow up a ship. All it takes is one oil tanker and global markets will...
Middle East Ceasefire Could Lower Oil, Ease Inflation Risks
A major Middle East shift could ease geopolitical risk and send oil prices lower after a ceasefire. The implications for inflation, consumers, and markets ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/7zkGP8J4td
Inelastic Demand Fuels Strong Futures; Grains, Energy Steady
Futures with the strongest uptrends are the ones with inelastic demand curves...now the consumer will have less disposable income than ever...grains and energies expected to keep a steady bid
Commodities Undervalued, Yet Crude Drop Could Trigger Market Risk‑Off
Have been saying for a while that commodities have been way under estimating upside potential(ag in particular) what a little wall street money could do to prices. However, if crude causes the equities to crater it can become “risk off”...
Gasoline Futures Near $2.70, Pump Prices Set to Hit $3.65
RBOB gasoline futures near $2.70.. implying $3.65 at the pump soon... close to the highest level since mid-2022 $RB_F $UGA @teconomics https://t.co/vQA49bLeZr
Oil Climbs Past $84, Stocks Hold Pending Jobs
WTI crude oil yodeling higher.. > $84 But stocks are OK with that... for now... payrolls & Jan retail sales on tap... @teconomics https://t.co/jopqYDfXo3
IEA Chief Urges EU to Accelerate Clean Energy Transition
International Energy Agency executive-director Fatih Birol just spoke to journalists in Brussels after meeting with EU leaders. Here his main messages from the presser: https://t.co/uzZVrc46zi
Hormuz Strait Closure Halts Major Global Oil Flow
The Straight of Hormuz, which is a key shipping lane for the world's oil, fertilizer and other products, is effectively shut. Charts from @bloomberg: https://t.co/zunbN3eO7G
Diversify Energy to Shield Bills From Middle East Turmoil
What will be impact of the conflict in the Middle East be on energy bills? What can we do to avoid being so exposed to international fossil fuel price volatility? I was asked these and other questions by LBC News....
US Temporarily Relaxes Russian Oil Sanctions for India
The US is temporarily easing sanctions on Russian oil sales to India to address supply shortages and reduce the impact of the surge in prices in the wake of US and Israeli attacks on Iran. The decision to ease sanctions...
US Waiver Leaves Brent Near 20‑Month High
Crude's reaction to the one-month, conditional US "waiver" on Indian purchases of Russian oil says it all. Brent is not even 1% lower Friday afternoon in Asia, after settling at a 20-month high above $85. @VandaInsights' first Executive Briefing Note of...
China Lithium Prices Plunge Amid Weak EV Demand, War Uncertainty
China lithium prices tumble as weak EV sales, Middle East war cloud demand outlook https://t.co/8TqB23mggy
US Grants India 30‑Day Waiver for Stranded Russian Oil
This will help. But crucial to understand: India’s total crude imports are ~5.5 mil b/d. This is a minor offset to 20 mil b/d locked out of the market. Washington appears set on offering a drip-feed of relief to a major oil...
Full Capacity Unlikely Until Mid‑April, Not March 9
They physically cannot restart everything by March 9–apparently full capacity probably can’t be restored for a month.
US Urges Oil Shift to Pressure China, Russia
"I know I said last April that 'as the debtor country, America has all the leverage v. China'...& I know we are actively trying to choke out both you AND Russia...but could you buy less oil from Russia & more...
Oil Spike Highlights Renewables' Growing Competitive Edge
The Middle East conflict is stress testing global energy. Bloomberg sees oil at $108 in a severe escalation. We have seen this before. The difference now is that solar and batteries are more cost competitive. Every fossil fuel spike strengthens the...
No Ships in Hormuz Strait: Explained Why
Why Are There No Ships in the Strait of Hormuz | March 5, 2026, Update Video: https://t.co/tcPFyfGeV8 https://t.co/Wgk4B6EEIp
Coal Demand Splits; Warrior Met Poised for Rebound
Macro: coal demand bifurcates—metallurgical firm, thermal pressured. Key factors: Warrior Met's Q4 strength; Peabody's diversified mix. Risks: regulation, China slowdown. Trade: Buy Warrior Met on pullback. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Oil Spikes, yet Inflation Expectations Stay Flat.
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
Oil Signals Calm Iran Conflict, Stocks Set to Rise
Jim Cramer says the oil market is signaling the Iran war won't spiral, and that's bullish for stocks, per CNBC 🤦🏻♂️
Oil Curve Downplays Iran War, Raises Market Tension
Who knows whether its valid or not, but the oil curve is fading the Iran war so far and seems to think this wraps up pretty quickly. No idea whether that's valid pricing or not but does increase the tension...
Loonie Gains as Middle East Turmoil Boosts Petrocurrency Appeal
loonie strengthens amid middle east chaos. upside of being a quasi petrocurrency i guess https://t.co/kfnMOPwxal
Independent Energy Research: Affordable, High‑Quality, Unbiased Insights
Twelve months ago, I re-launched my newsletter as a subscription service to provide high-quality, affordable and objective research focused on energy issues. I have always been convinced high-quality research and analysis are essential for effective decision-making. The past year has confirmed...
Strait Closure Ripple Effects Threaten Sulphur, Copper, Global Markets
Further to what we said about the impact that the closing of the Strait of Hormuz has on the sulphur market… and therefore African copper production… Craig Tindale maps out that this is only one small piece of a giant...
China's Lithium Lead Persists, but Supply Share Shrinks
China’s lithium supply dominance is hardly being “locked in.” Over the next decade their #1 position over demand will remain but their control over supply will diminish as assets in North America and non Chinese owned assets in South America...