Brent Outpaces WTI, Nearing 78.6% Retracement
$UKOIL - Brent oil is significantly outperforming WTI oil for obvious reasons. Both topped around $119.50 last Monday, but while WTI has only reached $98 today, Brent reached $110 at today's high and is close to the 78.6% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday crash. https://t.co/9fYMc0i1Du
Hormuz Disruption Forces IEA to Release 400M Barrels
20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. It's been disrupted for 3 weeks. IEA released 400M barrels from reserves. That tells you how serious this is. https://t.co/KrxQw3KVSX
2026's Oil Shock Rivals 1973‑79 Long‑run Impacts
it is true that 2026 is seeing the most sudden shock to oil and gas supply. But both 1973 and 1979 had a very significant effect on long-run output as well. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the...
Middle East Tensions Push Brent Crude Past $110
Brent crude oil prices surge to $110/barrel. Israel strikes Iran's largest gas plant. Iran is now announcing that some Gulf energy sites are "legitimate targets."
War Fuels Inflation; Oil Spikes Before Iran’s Retaliation
War is inflationary. And these oil prices are before Iran retaliates on: Ras Laffan refinery – Qatar Samref oil refinery – Saudi Arabia Al Hosn gasfield – UAE Jubail petchem plant – Saudi Arabia Mesaieed petchem plant – Qatar #RefinedProduct #oott
Out‑of‑control Inflation Coincided with Seven‑month Gold Decline
The last time inflation was out of control, gold was down 7 months in a row from April to October 2022. https://t.co/OSEyr3dAKn
Understanding Oil Shock Shift: From Inflation to Demand Destruction
I think this is the most important question to understand moving forward. Asked @BobEUnlimited about what his checklist looks like for when oil shocks flip from inflation to demand destruction
Gold Miners Near Support; Trendline Break Signals End
Miners $GDXJ vs Gold $GLD. Very close to support. Interestingly, only 1 of the last 5 corrections even reached the trendline. The end may be nigh. https://t.co/oK6drb2TpF
WTI Nears $100: CEOs Weigh Impact
WTI is about to cross the $100/barrel threshold. Would love to hear from CEOs of US domestic producers about their calculations right now. $OXY $EOG $DVN $FANG Contenental, etc. #oil #IranWar #oott
Trump Tariffs Spike Diesel, Fertilizer Costs, Threaten Farm Voters
Trump’s tariffs and the US-Israeli war on Iran are sending fertilizer and diesel costs through the roof. Diesel is up ~$1/gallon in a week. Urea fertilizer has jumped from $470/ton to up to $585. This jump in cost spells trouble for Trump and...
Gold Dip Signals Upcoming Bitcoin Rally
Just like that, Gold drops to $4,850. I don't think this is bad, not at all. I'm bullish on precious metals in the long term, but in the short term, it comes back to its mean. I think we'll see more downside in...
Crude Stocks Rise, Distillate Levels Near Critical
🎯EIA: US commercial crude inventories increased by 6.2 mb to 449.3mb. Watch distillate inventories as they might decline to critical levels.
Iraq Reports Iran Gas Supplies Fully Halted After Offshore Attack
Iraq says Iran gas supplies have completely halted after attack on offshore field, INA reports https://t.co/tZ53tmRYVt
Asia Faces Demand Destruction as Middle Eastern Crude Hits $150
1/5 Where Is the Demand Destruction? tl:dr - Asia because they are reliant on Middle Eastern Crude oil, and it is now over $150/barrel. This is keeping (for now) the American and European grades "only" ~$100. (% gain since the war) https://t.co/A6Rk6TjszH
Energy Inflation and Oil Prices Discussed on CNBC
On @CNBCClosingBell with @jonfortt, I discussed energy inflation, oil prices, and #META. ➡️Link: https://t.co/JLN4ZioBDD (3/17/2026) @cwp_advisor #Oil https://t.co/90DlUz7eMz
Oil Production Damage Irreversible, Prices Set to Surge
the destruction of oil and gas production has begun...now there's no turning back for oil prices. Once long-term damage is done, production won't return to previous levels just because hostilities cease & marine traffic resumes
Oil's Global Price Cracks Under Stress, Spreads Surge
Oil is a almost perfectly fungible commodity* with a single global price ... except during periods of stress Via JP's Natasha Kaneva, the spread between North Atlantic sweet light and the oil Asia normally buys has reached extreme levels * setting...
Gold Dips Below $5k, Breaks 50‑day SMA After 146 Days
Gold has dropped below 5,000 and cleared its 50-day SMA for the first time in 146 trading days above the moving average. We haven't seen a bullish move of that magnitude (spot above 50 SMA) since March 17, 2008...Remarkable coincidence https://t.co/yoJTpSTTBz
Media Misreports Diesel Carbon Price, Overstates Emission Costs
The media's go-to on all things food supply chain related missed a 21c/L drop in carbon prices on diesel fuel, and wrote an article on the implications of the no-longer-existent carbon price on combustion emissions increasing to 29c/L.
War Drives Gas Prices Up 86 Cents, 28.8% Rise
Yesterday was day #17 of the war. The national average of gasoline is up 86 cents (middle panel) Or 28.8% (bottom panel) https://t.co/I26G2JAxHr
Iran Gas Strike Could Push Turkey to Import More LNG
An unintended consequence of the strikes on Iran’s gas fields? Turkey may be forced to import more LNG 🇹🇷 🚢 Iran sends gas from South Pars to Turkey via a pipeline (making up ~15% of the country’s demand) If that’s shut,...
Markets Signal Persistent Oil Shock Beyond Short-Term
The market is gradually pricing in that this is more than a short-term oil shock. Below: white: oil futures curve, current blue: oil futures curve, a week ago orange: oil futures curve, 6 months ago https://t.co/8wQF3jaa8y
Carbon Diesel Tax Drop Disproves Linear Increase Assumption
Carbon price directly applied on diesel decreased by 21c/L from 2024-26. It was scheduled to increase to 29c/l. The Food Professor's math assumes that linear increase over time remained in effect. No, it's not the CFR or the industrial price,...
12‑Month Oil Futures Surge Past March Spike
Oil for delivery in 12 months is now way above its spike on March 9. Even if the futures curve were a market forecast of prices -- which as @Rory_Johnston will remind us, it is absolutely not -- that forward...
Shale Boom Turns US Oil Vulnerability Into Strength
As in decades past, high oil prices are causing fears of recession & pain at the pump. But the shale boom means the US now has the potential to turn a previous vulnerability to a source of strength. My latest with...
PPI Shows No $80+ Oil Days in February
Producer Prices - How much oil data (days > $80) is in this PPI inflation data? PPI vs Brent Move -- Zero days above $80 in this Feb PPI print—WTI cruised the entire month between $61–$67 (avg ~$64.50, peak 67.31 on...
Gold's 8% Drop Threatens Debasement Trade Momentum
Gold is now down 8% from before the war (blue). That may be due to the crazy run-up in precious metals and people locking in gains now that uncertainty is so high. But - the longer this sell-off lasts -...
BCOM Nears Key Resistance, Mirrors 2008 Surge
Peak Inklings: $120 Crude, $6 Copper, $5 Corn, $7 Natural Gas - Up almost 25% in 2026 to March 17, the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM) is showing its diversification attributes. Will autocorrelation be avoided this time? In 2008,...
US Strikes on Iran Risk 5% Global Oil Loss
Iran produces 4-5% of the world's total oil supply, making it the 3rd largest producer in OPEC. The best case for this conflict just took a leg lower. At best, this ends in the next 1-2 months and the Strait...
US Abundance Could Cap 2026 Corn at $5, Crude at $120
$5 Corn May Mark a 2026 Peak Alongside $120 Crude - The December corn future (Dec26) stretch to almost $4.99 a bushel around the onset of the Iran war on March 9 may have peak inklings akin to Dec22's $7.66...
US Supply Surge Could Pull WTI Back to $53
What Stops WTI Crude From Reverting Toward $53? The December WTI crude oil future (Dec26), which becomes front-month just before the midterms, was at roughly $76 a barrel on March 17 and may revert toward $53. Before the closing of the...
Natural Gas Likely to Stabilize Around $3‑$5
Natural Gas $3 or $5 Near Year-End? Risks Appear to Lean Lower - The second consecutive colder-than-normal winter pushed the front US natural gas future to a high of $7.83 per MMBtus in January, and the price near $3 on...
US Waiver Redirects Russian Oil to India, Squeezes China
Macro: US waiver shifts Russian crude to India, squeezing China; grades flipped to Brent premium 🛢️ Drivers: waiver, Hormuz closure, voyage economics. Risks: geopolitics, supply swings. Trade: buy Indian refinery exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Japan's Gas Prices Surge on Conflict and Weak Yen
Japan's gasoline price hits a record high 📈⚠️ 🛢️ The Middle East conflict and weak yen are delivering a double whammy to Japanese consumers 👉 Japan depends on the Middle East for most of its oil https://t.co/NMJurOwuQM https://t.co/ivLXm4sdIQ
High Oil Prices Aren’t Inflation, Policy Is
The Oil Price Myth Everyone Believes Oil’s near $93 a barrel. War is a factor, but prices were rising anyway. Key point: Rising prices from a shortage ≠ inflation. True inflation will come from the policies we ramp up because of...
EU Gas Buyers May Replicate 2022 Spending Surge
This is a key theme for EZ inflation/gas. The curve in gas suggests that EZ buyers hold their nerve, but supply is paramount. The longer it goes on, the higher is the risk that EU buyers will do what...
Bob Brackett Returns: War in Iran Reshapes Global Gas Flows
NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the return of the legend Bob Brackett @tracyalloway and I talk to Bernstein’s top commodities researcher about war in Iran and how natural gas flows are being reshaped all around the world. https://t.co/DlSfweVsgl
Silver Near Support, Oversold Yet Bullish for Juniors
Silver consolidating record run for 7 weeks now. Almost near uptrend support. Getting oversold. Selling volume drying up. 200 dma over $50 now which is great for the junior miners. $slv $gdxj https://t.co/kEtElzonWZ
Europe Swapped Russian Gas for LNG, Still Vulnerable
Europe's LNG imports have gone from 3% of gas supply in 1990 to nearly 50% today. We replaced Russian pipeline gas with LNG at record speed. But we replaced one dependency with another. That's why Europe is so exposed. Answer is transforming demand...
Goldman Sees Possible US Export Bans, Targeting Refined Oil
Goldman > While not our base case, we would not rule out US export restrictions. If implemented, they appear more likely for refined products than for crude oil.
Heating Oil Prices Near $4, Spiking From Middle East Tensions
If you heat with oil you are exposed to sky-high heating oil prices. US heating oil futures are near $4 per gallon and prices have almost doubled since February, driven by escalating disruption linked to the war in Iran and...
SPR Masks Shortage; Buy Cheap Future Oil Now
Sell the front, buy the future isn’t a trade—it’s a signal. The curve is too cheap in the back. Today’s SPR intervention is masking tomorrow’s shortage. #Oil #EnergyMarkets #SPR #Macro https://t.co/BTcsYGSuK0
Libya's Biggest Oil Field Shuts, Pipeline Fire Deepens Supply Shock
Libya’s largest oil field is going offline. Sharara exports halted after a pipeline fire—full shutdown within hours. Another supply hit in an already fragile system. #Oil #EnergyMarkets #Libya #SupplyShock
Middle East Conflict Fuels South African Petrol Shortage Fears
South Africa: Middle East conflict sparks fears of fuel rationing and petrol shortages in South Africa https://t.co/FvxkRqShtg
Price Hikes and Solar Surge Slash Pakistan’s LNG Demand
Pakistan’s LNG demand has dropped due to two main factors: 💰 The government hiked gas/power prices, resulting in demand destruction ☀️ In response to high utility bills, consumers and businesses rapidly installed solar panels (highlighted in thread below)
Seventh Oil Shock Arrives, Yet Recession Uncertain
The first five oil shocks since 1970 triggered recessions. The sixth one in 2022 didn't. Now we're in the seventh spike. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/E0T0q5vh0c
Oil at $150/Barrel Could Push Inflation to 6% Q2
PANTHEON MACRO: In a $150/barrel oil scenario, “we think inflation would peak in Q2 at about 6% ..” https://t.co/lFerTyCGCR
Gas Prices Likely Remain High Through 2027
Gas prices staying up into 2027? It’s becoming a distinct possibility. Thanks to retired Marine Lt Col @HalKempfer for taking the time to talk supply chain issues, energy security, and the new Great Powers competition. Link below.
Gas Prices Surge While Food Inflation Still Lags
An update on a critical chart: Gasoline prices continue to climb, but attention should now shift to food prices, which have yet to follow. Expect policymakers to call it transitory again, even as resource prices — despite volatility — remain elevated by...
Crude Oil's Market Ripple Effects Discussed on Podcast
Plenty to talk about this week as @MrMBrown and I resume our weekly podcast. Amongst other things we'll be looking at crude oil's impact on markets which could well reverberate for some time #oilcrisis https://t.co/B6h8K0JLAj