Fertilizer Shortage Triggers Food Price Inflation Spiral
Trump has unleashed a positive feedback loop that’s going to have significant negative impacts: Reduced fertilizer supply = higher cost, farmers planting less, additional crop failure = lower crop supply = higher food prices + inflation, which will drive up the cost of fertilzer… rinse and repeat. This is precisely why I put out a post yesterday forewarning the skyrocketing food supplies and taking measures here and now to insulate against that.
India Doubles Russian Oil Imports, Undermining Sanctions
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Since the US-Israeli war on Iran started, India’s oil imports from Russia have nearly doubled. Good news. IT’S A SIGN THAT THE ILL-CONCEIVED SANCTIONS REGIME IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN. https://t.co/XzP5Xxh83g
Tight Indian Spot Supply Drives Ferro‑Chrome Auction Prices Up
Facor’s ferro-chrome auction drew sharply higher bids as tight Indian spot supply pushed prices above base levels. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/indian-ferro-chrome-auction-prices-rise.html
China's SGE Silver Premium Hits 13.7% Over Spot
Good morning China 🇨🇳 At open on Wednesday, 4/1 SGE #Silver traded at RMB18957.0/kg ($85.484/Troy oz) Spot #Silver is $75.189/Troy oz SGE premium at 13.7% over spot
Gulf Oil Transit Dries up, Sparking Price Crunch
Oil from the Gulf that has been in transit to its destinations is about to dry up. Then, there will be a crunch. Paul Krugman employs standard econ arithmetic to end up with a price range of $99/BBL to 372/BBL, depending...
June WTI Futures May Have Already Peaked
POLL: Has the June WTI crude oil futures contract peaked? ($104 on March 9th, $99 last night, $94 currently)
Refinery Constraints, Not Oil Flow, Drive Supply Squeeze
Even if oil flows recover, refineries are the real squeeze, says Macquarie's Vikas Dwivedi Refinery run cuts have tightened product supply. It will take 4-6 weeks to recover after Hormuz opens to full transit. And there's uncertainty about refinery damage.
Brent Crude Jumps 60% in March, Record Gain
JUST IN: Brent crude oil futures surged 60% in March, delivering the biggest monthly gain ever.
Risk Assets Surge as Iran Conflict Outlook Impro
BofA: Risk assets rallied today on the potential resolution of the Iran war. President Trump stated that the US “won’t be there” to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz Oil prices are less enthusiastic https://t.co/qqPBVmhvPG
Rising LNG Prices Threaten Terminals, Shift Coal‑Gas Dynamics
Higher LNG prices also putting LNG terminals at risk. There's upside and downside here. To the extent that these were driving coal -> gas switching, more downside than up. But if coal is also constrained, would boost renewables.
Hormuz Closure Could Push Oil to $300 Barrel
If Hormuz remains close the price of oil and refined products could rise to $200, $250, $300 per barrel or any number.
UK Faces Fuel Shortage Amid US‑Israel/Iran Energy Crisis
Prices at the pump? UK running out of fuel? What should the government and the public do in the face of the US-Israel/Iran energy crisis? https://t.co/dVMIfX1kI1 via @Channel4News with @mattfrei
Four‑Week Hormuz Closure Halts Critical Petrochemical Shipments
I can’t believe the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for four weeks. It seems like so much longer than that. Scarcely do I remember the last time petrochemicals, urea, helium and other fundamental components could safely transit to key...
Oil Futures Slip Into Backwardation as Hormuz Bottleneck Persists
With the Hormuz Strait all but closed, the crude oil futures curve is back to the backwardation levels of the first few days of the conflict. The front contract is about $23 higher than the 9th contract, indicating that the...
Brent Crude Gains Nearly $50 Amid Iran Conflict
Brent crude prompt futures price, Iran-War-to-date. Up just shy of $50 per barrel over the past month. https://t.co/SERzQ38Bos
Brent Oil Awaits Breakout Above $112.1 Amid Overbought Signals
#BrentOil Comp Doji Candle and Sideways. Needs Breakout $112.1. Support $100, $91.8, $84. RSI 71.5 Overbought but can go higher. Top Bollinger Band $111.6. Midpoint Line $102.5. Bottom Band $93.6.
Gold and Treasuries Funding Liquidity Amid Oil Backwardation
With only one ship passing through the Strait last week, the oil curve has remained heavily backwardated. Looking at the correlations below, we see that gold and bonds have been positively correlated (with both under pressure), and Bitcoin and the...
China’s Iranian Oil Purchases Become Risky, Costly, Contested
China can still buy Iranian oil, but every barrel now comes with higher military risk, higher shipping costs, and the threat of sanctions or interdiction. What was once a quiet $8 to $12 discount trade is now a fragile, contested...
EU Eyes Reviving Emergency Energy Rules Amid Iran Price Shock
The EU will consider reopening a set energy measures used after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the bloc seeks to contain a fresh price shock tied to the Iran war https://t.co/pGEqjvd4Uf via @johnainger https://t.co/oxM0l6weH8
Market Narratives Flip Fast; Update Your Thesis.
Q1 lesson: Cuts → Hikes. Stable oil → $112. Safe → Risky. Narratives flip faster than positioning. If you're still running January's thesis in Q2, you're not wrong in theory. You're just wrong in the market that actually exists. --- https://t.co/c8qhOLV3nI
China Ships Diesel to Southeast Asia Despite Curbs
China has exported cargoes of diesel and other fuels to energy-starved countries across Southeast Asia over the weekend, in what appears to be a signal of support despite export curbs imposed earlier this month https://t.co/Ho2QuntmBc
U.S. Corn Acre Forecasts Remain Unchanged Year‑to‑Year
🌽Remarkable to compare expectations and outcomes for U.S. corn acres, March 2025 versus March 2026. Almost a straight copy+paste in all columns..... https://t.co/HT5yWSIhC3
New US LNG Capacity Too Small to Replace Qatar Losses
LNG production in Qatar, normally ~80 mm tonnes, has been effectively OFFLINE since March 2. The new Golden Pass LNG export terminal in the U.S. will add only 18mm tonnes at full capacity. NEW SUPPLY CAN’T OFFSET WAR-DRIVEN LOSSES. https://t.co/tVmip8DsaM
Iran and Russia Profit as Oil Prices Surge Amid War
A month into this war: Iran is still exporting oil & to more customers Iran is making more money for its oil because prices are up Iran has effectively installed a tollbooth to enter and exit the Persian Gulf Russia is making more...
U.S. Gas Prices Stay Low, Unaffected by Middle East Conflict
U.S. gas market insulated from war in the Middle East U.S. gas inventories are on course to finish the winter close to the average for the time of year, which has sent futures prices back below $3 per million British thermal...
North Aurora Gas Prices Dip to $3.61‑$3.64
Gas prices in north Aurora, CO along Tower Rd have relaxed to $3.61-3.64 after hitting $3.97 last week.
Silver Open Interest Hits Historic Lows on COMEX, SHFE
Extremely Low Positioning: Both #COMEX and #SHFE #silver open interest are currently trading at the very bottom of their historical ranges
Gold Surges as War De‑escalation Rumors Emerge
Gold rallies on rumors of a potential off-ramp in a war. Markets never cease to surprise me…🤣🤣
Oil $100 Baseline Becomes Permanent After Iran Threat
WTI pre-market: $101.84. Brent: $108. Up 47% for the quarter. Iran is demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for 20% of global oil supply. That's not a negotiating position. It's a line in the sand with no realistic...
Iran's Hormuz Claim Locks in Permanent War Premium
$CL WTI pre-market: $101.84. $BNO Brent: $108. Iran demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. That's not a negotiating position. It's a non-starter — and everyone knows it. The war premium is permanent until proven otherwise. --- https://t.co/DwGuXTrsgJ
Market Underestimates Q2 Corn Usage for Seven Straight Years
Even more interesting. This was the 7th consecutive year that the market underestimated second quarter implied usage for corn. Hmmmmm.
USDA Reports Lower-than-Expected Corn Acreage in May
Immediate report reaction: The acres weren't quite as expected, w/ most analysis pointing to lower corn acres. BUT has anything changed since USDA's survey, and by how much? This will be debated for the next 3 months, but these are...
US Cotton Plantings Surpass Forecast, Small Grains Lag
U.S. cotton plantings came in larger than expected and above 2025's area. All small grain plantings came in below expectations. https://t.co/QomfLCsn7M
U.S. Wheat Plantings Hit Record Lows Since 1919
U.S. wheat plantings come in lower than analysts expected across all categories. 2026 all wheat acres are set to hit an all-time low in records back to 1919. Spring wheat acres are seen at a 56-year low. https://t.co/EX4kMnksdH
Iran War Spurs Debate Over 95M Corn Acres
Now let the debates begin whether we will actually plant over 95 million acres of corn with the change in input prices due to the Iran War
Corn, Wheat Stocks Miss Forecast; Soybeans Exceed Expectations
U.S. March 1 corn and wheat stocks come in below trade expectations, soybeans come in above. https://t.co/99UWcvMgT6
USDA to Publish First 2026‑27 WASDE Balance Sheets May 12
USDA will release its first WASDE balance sheets for the 2026-27 marketing year May 12. It typically uses trend yields from its February Outlook Forum, and Planted Acres from its March planting intentions survey. As such, today's numbers should help...
USDA Data Expected to Surprise, Sets Baseline for Debate
There's a high likelihood of surprises from USDA today, and the acreage numbers will likely change by the June survey. But at least it will provide a baseline for the debate that will continue until January. #oatt
OPEC's Monthly Production Decline Hits Ugly Levels
Now we start getting the monthly average OPEC production numbers. And boy, oh boy, are they UGLY. Reminder: this is the *average* production decline m/m, the exit loss is even larger and that's where we'll land in the April data if this...
Australia’s Jet Fuel Crisis Deepens as China Ban Hits 30%
Australia (which has declared a national fuel supply disruption) is deeper in to its jet fuel crisis 🚨 - For now, emergency supply is being routed from l US through the Panama Canal to Melbourne, Perth - but the route *cannot*...
Indonesia Reinstates B50 Biodiesel Blend Amid War Risks
🇮🇩Indonesia will raise the blending rate for palm-based biodiesel to 50% (B50) from the current B40 on July 1, despite having scrapped this plan two months ago due to supply concerns. But war risks are now at the forefront. Indonesia is...
Gold Aims to Rebound; $430 GLD Breach Restores Bullish Confidence
Weekly chart of Gold trying to lead out of the hole after suffering its largest drawdown since 2022. A move back over 430 in $GLD ETF should bring more confidence back to the bull side. (long) https://t.co/awUJXQ86tT
LBNL Updates Retail Electricity Price Trends, Highlights Data Centers
LBNL just released an updated analysis of retail electricity price trends. Packed with credible data and analysis, including clarifications about data centers -- https://t.co/HSlAecpCgH
Oil Market Lacks Buffers, Minor Shocks Spark Big Price Swings
The oil market didn’t underreact—it absorbed the shock, writes @RystadEnergyOil Now the buffers are gone From here, even minor disruptions can trigger outsized price moves There's no slack left in the system. https://t.co/FLJkAgmNXJ
Oil Shock Triggers Rapid Inflation, Demand Collapse, Instability
Maximum risk-off, says @elerianm This isn’t just an energy shock It’s a chain reaction: price → inflation → demand destruction → instability. Markets still don’t see how quickly this cascades. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Inflation #Geopolitics
EU Warns Prolonged Energy Market Disruption From Iran War
EU Tells Members to Prepare for 'Prolonged Disruption' to Energy Markets From Iran War https://t.co/oPLV3B8xsa
Ukraine's Drone Attacks Slash Russian Oil Exports
This is something to keep an eye on. Ukraine has been damaging Russian oil export capacity, via drone. The country's seaborne shipments last week were the lowest since 2022, but unclear if it's the start of a longer trend. ...
Iran War Triggers Structural Oil Price Upgrade
I don't see any reasonable scenario in which the oil market exits the Iran War in a healthier, more secure condition than where things stood before the war. It's a structural go-forward upgrade to oil pricing, at this stage it's just...
Oil May Rise Even If War Ends, TACO Unbearish
While a unilateral TACO is “bearish” relative to a boots on the ground regional blow-up scenario, it’s not bearish in absolute terms—and very likely still justifies crude prices higher than their current sanguine levels. So, yes, I think the war can...
USDA Planting Data May Reveal Fertilizer‑price Driven Acreage Shift
🇺🇸All trade estimates ahead of USDA's planting intentions & quarterly stocks due on Tuesday at 11am CDT, where U.S. corn & soybean plantings will take the spotlight. Will USDA's survey capture any potential acreage shift owing to the war-driven surge...