Oil Prices Surge, Other Energy Markets Remain Flat
Third Gulf War — energy impact (week-on-week; Fri-to-Thu because Easter): Dated Brent oil: ⏫ +17.5% (note physical, not futures) WTI crude oil: ⏫ +12.2% Newcastle coal: ↔️ +1.5% EU nat gas TTF ⏬ -7.6% German power: ⬇️ -4.4% Oil super strong; rest of energy calm-ish
Geopolitics Drive Record US Oil Exports and Price Surge
🎯 Following the Hormuz Crisis, U.S. exports of petroleum products surged to a record high last month as Europe suffers for high diesel and jet fuel prices, while Venezuela’s crude oil exports reached their highest level in six years. 🎯Following Trump's...
WTI Must Hit $120 to Push Gas to $5 per Gallon
National average gasoline at $4.07. Probably take $120 WTI oil to get to $5 per gallon Gas (WTI now at $112 per barrel)
Trump Increases Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum, Copper
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strengthens Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum, and Copper Imports – The White House https://t.co/IXDEgVOFVH
White House Tightens Controls on Aluminum, Steel, Copper Imports
Strengthening Actions Taken to Adjust Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper Into the United States – The White House https://t.co/K1KguBjwkT
Brent Crude Futures Plunge Sharply This Week
Brent crude oil futures looking out a few months and beyond are down sharply in the past week @augurinfinity https://t.co/0xHk81TJYg https://t.co/VVmceseKBH
Relief as Soybean and Corn Prices Remain Low
All this sticking a fork in soybeans and corn makes me feel so much better that we are not near our highs yet. Even the farmers hate it going up. Lol. Have a great holiday Eater weekend and back...
Oil Flow Could Fully Recover Within Four Weeks
Tomorrow, I am going to show that there is actually a path towards a fully recovered oil-flow in 4 weeks from now, even despite a situation where Trump doesn't really end the war, or where he leaves with solving the...
Oil Prices Hit Highest Since 2008, Surpassing War Levels
From Bloomberg: “The world’s most important price for real-world oil barrels surged above $140 on Thursday, the highest since 2008. Dated Brent, the price of shipments bought and sold in the North Sea, reached $141.37, surpassing levels seen when Russia invaded...
War‑Driven Energy Costs Revive Food
🇺🇸The food-vs-fuel debate is back amid the war-driven surge in energy costs, particularly for corn-based ethanol. Yes, 2026 U.S. corn plantings will drop from 2025, largely due to rotations. But 2026 could see the 4th largest corn area since WWII and...
Trump's Speech Signals Shift in Oil Market
Short but (characteristically) excellent piece from @Rory_Johnston on Trump’s speech and the oil market https://t.co/UCAlkgeCLD https://t.co/TaxA7jMxrL
No Deal Imminent; Hormuz Likely Stays Closed This Weekend
I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think we’re anywhere close to having a “deal” or the strait of Hormuz opening anytime soon. This 3 day weekend could be a absolute sh-t show and almost expect it to be...
Retail Diesel Rises, but Less Sharply than WTI
WTI is important for diesel pricing, but retail diesel is set on on ULSD heating oil contract traded n NYMEX, which already saw these levels over last 10 days. Retail diesel will move up in price, but nearly as dramatic...
Iran Conflict Could Waste Over One Billion Barrels
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 The Billion Barrel Cost of a Longer Iran War The total volume of unproduced Gulf barrels is set to rise above one billion barrels over full shock duration; lost production in April alone will absorb nearly the entire...
Debunking the Myth of a Global Natural Gas Price
Another Victor and Uncle Albert moment as @MrMBrown and I debunk the myth of a global natural gas price. Pay attention at the back "taps sign" https://t.co/ii46KI6Uxn
2026 Food Crisis Fears Ease Compared to 2022
VIDEO COLUMN: Another food crisis? The experience of 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, plus the increase in fertiliser prices, have prompted concern about another food price spike. But the situation in 2026 isn't nearly as concerning. At least, no yet. https://t.co/BjXPjnhMrG
Brent Oil Surges to $141.37, Highest Since 2008
Physical oil hits its highest level since 2008 *DATED BRENT OIL PRICE SOARS TO $141.37/BBL, HIGHEST SINCE 2008 https://t.co/OkcbcnE3kg
Crude Overbought Signals Rising Downside Vulnerability
Prior to the President’s address, the NDR Hormuz Stress Index began showing early signs of easing. Crude markets are tight, overbought and sentiment is excessively optimistic. Overbought conditions have historically seen low or below average returns but not necessarily outright...
Q1 Corn Use Surprises Market, Implied Estimates Rise
1. This chart is drawn from my Monday farmdoc webinar that I did with @JosephJanzen after the USDA reports. It shows first quarter (implied) total corn use estimated based on quarterly grain stocks and the market surprise in...
US Soy Exports to China Slightly Up, Q1 Plummets
🇺🇸USA exported 2.43 million metric tons (89 mbu) of soybeans to China in February, slightly above the month's five-year average. Q2 (Dec-Feb) 2025/26 U.S. bean shipments to China edged the year-ago Q2 volume by about one cargo, but Q1 2025/26 was...
USDA Planting & Grain Stock Data Signal Market Shifts
While the world (rightfully) focuses on Iran and the price of oil, the USDA released the March Prospective Plantings and the latest Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on Monday. I joined Joseph Janzen for a farmdoc webinar shortly after the...
WTI Gains $110, Reaches Biggest Brent Premium Since 2008
US-based WTI crude oil is up around 110 with today's surge following President Trumps address to the nation yesterday. Notably, this puts WTI (US-benchmark) to a ~3 premium to Brent. That's the first premium (on a weekly basis) since Jan...
Higher Prices Won’t Leave Americans Without Energy
This is correct. Americans will pay higher prices, but aren't going to run out of energy.
China to Curb Gas Power, Replace LNG with Coal, Renewables
China’s exposure to the loss of Middle East LNG China will likely reduce its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in response to the loss of supplies from the Middle East and higher spot prices mostly by curbing gas-fired power generation and...
Renting Cushing WTI Barrel Yields 25% Monthly Return
Prompt WTI timespreads today hit a record high of $15/bbl If you've currently got a barrel of physical WTI-deliverable crude in the Cushing area, you can *rent* said barrel to the market for the next two and a half weeks and...
Europe Gas Rises on Middle East Risks; US Prices Fall
European natural gas prices (TTF) are up 6% to about $17/mmbtu on fears that a prolonged disruption in the Middle East will curb supply 🇪🇺 US gas prices (Henry Hub) are down nearly 1% to $2.8/mmbtu as shale production keeps...
WTI Backwardation Spikes, Shale Hedging Options Remain Limited
CHART OF THE DAY: The extreme backwardation in WTI oil futures, and the impact on (lack of) hedging opportunities for US shale for 2027-28. While the front of the curve has exploded (+$44 a barrel), the back (24 months out...
CFA Tag Reveals Client Ignorance on WTI‑Brent
If you manage outside money, put the letters “CFA” at the end of your social media name, and today you are asking “Why is WTI trading above Brent?,” I’m afraid your clients have a problem.
Delaying Coal Closures Risks Higher Prices and Unreliability
“It’s a risky strategy:” Why delaying coal closures may backfire on price and reliability #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/HYRCRQ04NT https://t.co/I4f2Ny9CkJ
WTI Crude Hits Highest Level Since Early War Melt‑Up
WTI crude just absolutely sending it. The US crude benchmark is now at its highest level since that melt-up we got on the second Monday of the war. https://t.co/4hONtQf997
Trump’s Policies Engineered Massive Oil Spike and Recession
To @anasalhajji ‘s point, you’d be hard pressed to engineer a more perfect recipe for a major sustained spike in crude & products, with accompanying global recession and market crash, than what Trump’s crew has unleashed. The 12-D chess of...
Airlines Scramble as Jet Fuel Scarcity Hits Markets
New Episode: For aviation, a “No Jet Fuel Left” reality is around the corner in several markets, as airlines try to outbid each other for the little Jet A-1 fuel remaining. 🛢️ Here’s what’s happening 👇🏽🎧 #OnAir (available on all...
Oil Prompt Spread Hits Record Backwardation
Look at that backwardation...prompt spread (difference between the front-month oil futures contract and the subsequent contract) blowing out to records https://t.co/KBfkkpr9IC
Admin Plans Iran Exit Despite $4+ Gas Surge
With the apparent TACO yesterday, the administration is saying we will wind down our involvement in Iran without figuring out how to work through the disruption leading to $4+ gas prices in the USA? @EnergyEmpirePod https://t.co/N9KbLRP829
Hormuz Disruption Forces Europe Into Diesel Bidding War
With Hormuz still disrupted, diesel is going to the highest bidder Europe will have to compete hard for every marginal barrel. https://t.co/76ycFBcrIj #Diesel #Europe #OilMarkets
OPEC Warns Oil Demand Forecasts Miss Rising ICE Sales
OPEC researchers raise a very important point here. A major oversight in forecasts predicting a sharp drop in oil demand from rising EV adoption is the failure to account for the ongoing growth in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Ironically,...
Fuel Subsidies Are a Ticking Clock, Not Protection
RM4 billion in subsidies sounds like protection. It is actually a countdown clock. Malaysia has spent more defending fuel prices in one month than most emergency budgets allocate for an entire quarter — and the conflict that triggered it has no...
Rising Gas Prices Won’t Halt Asia’s Renewable Shift
Don't fall for the easy narrative that costly gas will mean more coal burn in Asia. Briefly in the short term maybe, but the long term trajectory toward renewables gets stronger. Look at the math behind the argument. 🎁🔗 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-01/iran-war-the-lng-shock-isn-t-driving-asia-back-to-coal
Embargo Preferred Over Military to Stabilize Oil Prices
Taking Kharg Island or bombing powerplants takes Iran's oil off global markets for a long time. That spikes oil by a lot more and is what markets fear most. Better to do an embargo and take Iran's oil off the...
Drone Attacks Force Unavoidable Russian Oil Output Cuts
Exclusive: Russian oil output cuts are unavoidable as drone attacks shrink exports, sources say https://t.co/5XWsLO71R7
Trump’s War Address Sends Oil Market Into Whiplash
Whipsawed once again: That is the state of the oil market and beyond as investors react to President Trump’s address to the nation regarding the Middle East War. (5-day WTI oil price chart below from CNBC.) #economy #markets #oil #MiddleEastWar @cnbc
WTI Hits $108, Still Cheaper Than Brent
Oil prices surge, WTI May at $108 now. This is the "cheap" oil (Brent is more expensive)
UK Fuel Prices Hit Record Rise Amid Iran War
Fuel prices for UK motorists rose by a record in March on Iran war https://t.co/61fdr9l4QE https://t.co/jkbJIwsFkN
Record January Volume Signals Silver Top, 2029 Low
$SLV - The monthly volume in January was the highest volume ever. Such volume expansions happen only at major tops. After every major top silver declines into the next 7 year cycle low. The next 7YCL is due in late...
Iran War Drives US Oil Demand Collapse, Cuts Forecast
Lower EIA US oil forecast probably reflects demand destruction & weakened economic activity resulting from the Iran war @Peter_Strachan
Brent to Hold $113/Barrel in Q2 Despite Conflict Pause
Ryan Sweet of @OxfordEconomics sees brent crude $113 a barrel on average for Q2, even with a potential near-term end to military action. "The military timeline differs from the economic one. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, &...
Natural Disasters Lead Supply Disruptions; Geopolitics Rise in Agri
Natural disasters emerge as the dominant trigger for supply disruptions in agriculture and energy. Geopolitical risks mainly affect energy and precious metals markets and have recently become important also for agricultural commodities https://t.co/vE0F6bepwD
Chinese Solar Makers Raise Prices, Market Remains Stagnant
Yicai: "Leading Chinese manufacturers of solar modules have raised the prices of their products, as China is lifting the 9 percent rebates on the export value-added tax for photovoltaic products. However even as large manufacturers have raised prices, the market...
Oil Prices Surge to Suppress Demand, Fertilizer Costs Safe
PODCAST: Great to be back at "Odd Lots" with @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart. Lots to discuss linked to the US-Iran war: why oil prices will go much higher to destroy demand, but why expensive fertilizer doesn't mean a food crisis is coming. https://t.co/UoHIl2cOqk
China's Oil Shock Prep Fuels Investor Gains
China was ready for an oil shock and now investors are reaping the rewards https://t.co/5KptlsOcOf