Commodities Social Media and Updates
Commodities Social Media and Updates
Commodities Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
This is consistent with all the chatter about the RVOs lately. Darling Ingredients CEO last week gave a range for BBD RVO of 5.25 - 5.6 billion physical gallons. Appears that half-RIN is dead and the compromise is higher fixed RVOs. Remains to be seen if proposal for discounting D4 RD down to 1.6 remains. I think big remaining uncertainty is 50% or 100% reallocation of 2023-2025 SREs, or something in-between.
Demand is what dominates these electricity charts. Supply has followed demand in the US. Stop posting flatlined generation graphs as if they're evidence of US decline or stagnation. They're evidence of US efficiency and a switch to a knowledge economy.
"Tariffs, supplier fire continue to batter Ford" https://t.co/3FKQwD9ycE That Ford is having to pay millions in aluminum tariffs simply bc its domestic supplier caught fire is one of the better/stupider examples of US tariff policy today: https://t.co/eOL1o1zgXf
Central banks around the world have spurred one of the largest gold-buying waves in history. The top 15 buyers added ~2,000 tonnes. China alone added over 357 tonnes since 2020. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/8Gm9M05oo3
Industrial policy, again: "India’s Solar Manufacturing Excesses Turn a Boom Into a Glut" https://t.co/VEeIUwYmoM https://t.co/r4CohxBgDI
US sanctions squeezed Russian and Venezuelan oil shipping out of mainstream markets. A shadow fleet emerged. Now aging dark fleet tankers are arriving at Indian scrapyards at a record pace. SANCTIONS = WORKAROUNDS = UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. https://t.co/GddyWzZwZd
Marketing year to date #wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 59 million bushels, versus 61 million the previous week. #oatt
🇺🇸NOPA U.S. crush, Jan. 2026: ▪️221.564 mln bu of soybeans ▪️Above avg trade guess of 218.52 mln ▪️+10.6% YOY; down 1.5% from Dec. 2025 ▪️Soyoil stocks 1.9 bln lbs ▪️Above all trade guesses (avg was 1.71 bln) ▪️+49% YOY; highest since April 2023 https://t.co/UItFPJlkd8
Guyana is the biggest winner from Maduro's ouster in Venezuela. "It removes the biggest barrier for foreign investment," said CSIS's Henry Ziemer Lower risk premium, faster development, higher upside. https://t.co/1Tpj1OK8dp #oil #Guyana #Exxon #geopolitics #energy
Been saying this for a while: Guyana (and by extension Exxon) was a big collateral winner of Venezuela developments. https://t.co/QzfRIJKK1F
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn inspections easily beat all trade expectations (though they weren't a weekly record). FYI the previous week's corn volume was hiked significantly. Soy inspections were near the top end of estimates - 57% of the beans were...
Export inspections for the week ending Feb. 12 (mln bu): #corn 58.8, grain sorghum 9.5, #soybeans 44.2, #wheat 13.8 #oatt
OIL MARKET: The 2nd round of US-Iran talks has concluded, and Iranian media says there would be a 3rd round of negotiations in the “near future” after both sides consult with their respective governments.
The oil ministers of Iran and Russia met today. Contrary to popular belief, Moscow and Tehran are now bitter rivals in the oil market as the size of the black market for crude shrinks. Both compete to supply China. (My earlier @Opinion...
Wrong. Vast majority of gold buyers have been non Americans that are more worried that their own fiat currencies will lose value than they are about the USD losing value. And while foreign CBs purchased around $100B of gold...
Iran launched naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz “Maximum pressure” cuts both ways. Iran wants nuclear-only talk, while the US wants missiles and proxies too The “deal space” is small and the risk premium stays high. https://t.co/Gs9viHRneW #oil #Brent #Hormuz #Iran #geopolitics #energysecurity #OPEC...
Forget climate change for the moment. One of the main reasons for supporting green energy is to reduce our reliance on gas for electricity generation. The Ukraine war has compromised access to Russian gas and this has had a massive...
Who could have seen this coming? Higher copper prices are BHP's main profit driver. https://t.co/ifvnq0Y31l #BHP #copper #mining #commodities #energytransition #AI #electrification #China #ironore #markets
South Korean Sinokor now controls 120 oil tankers When one buyer controls the tradable fleet, charterers panic-book, freight spikes, and shocks bleeds into physical oil prices and spreads. https://t.co/Z2GsMyfbtl #oil #tankers #VLCC #shipping #freight #supplychain #sanctions #geopolitics #markets #energy
I've been cranking numbers. Full year 2025, it looks like nuclear power just about kept its nose ahead of wind and solar. But in H2 2025, while wind didn't quite overtake nuclear, solar did. In 2026 nuclear will drop to...
The best—only?—argument that Trump is bearish for oil prices is that OPEC+ wouldn't have hiked crude production as aggressively last year in a world in which Harris was sitting in the White House.
Metal Volatility Changed Everything $GLD $SLV $BTCUSD $SPX $QQQ $IGV $XLK Sharp volatility in gold, silver, crypto and equities was easier to spot than most think. And why I study sector rotation, options structure, and investor confidence. https://t.co/PYmLxcJSCJ
Why @IEA and @OPECSecretariat are split on what comes next for oil - and what it means for strategy this year https://t.co/FUAD5TlcG4 @TheNationalNews
Oil investors bullish on proliferating supply threats Investors are increasingly bullish about the outlook for oil prices as potential risks to production and tanker traffic multiply - including threats of U.S. military action against Iran and stricter sanctions enforcement. Hedge funds and...
"The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again." "Such new price increases follow last year’s wave of tariff-driven price hikes" https://t.co/onoN6WYPHy https://t.co/OjVUbYFXnM
“Brent drops to $60 if Iran tension fades,” says SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop. Sure — until the next mini-shock. That’s the point: this isn’t anomaly anymore It’s the baseline. Oil trades on recurring tail risk at the margin. https://t.co/qqfYS0QUG9 #oil #Brent #OPEC #Iran #geopolitics...
U.S. GAS futures prices have retreated to the lowest for almost four months after spiking during Winter Storm Fern. Front-month futures have fallen back to just $3 per million British thermal units (the lowest since mid-October). The front month has...
COLUMN: In the oil market, the bears control the narrative — at least for now. (My summary after last week's International Energy Week, the oil trading industry's annual jamboree in London) @Opinion https://t.co/Y3OHEhD4k5
GAS MARKET: After a cold blast triggered sild price moves, US gas benchmark Henry Hub has fallen back below $3 per mBtu. Warmer temperatures and the irresistible supply force of the US shale revolution behind the pullback.
The “AI drives a gas buildout” narrative skips the only thing that matters: DELIVERABILITY @marthamuir25 Turbine lead times are years & interconnection queues are jammed, The grid can’t supply firm power on schedule. Megawatts in press releases aren’t megawatts to the...
Onshore LNG is becoming a security and politics nightmare. That’s why floating LNG is back: faster build, smaller upfront risk And you can park it offshore instead of betting $20B on land stability Lease-and-move models make gas exportable again. https://t.co/wMnwOPoyxv #LNG #FLNG #energy #naturalgas...
California has to import US gasoline via Bahamas Refinery closures + no Gulf-to-CA pipelines + the Jones Act = a logistics tax https://t.co/3dGBI24oXI #gasoline #California #energy #refining #JonesAct #shipping #supplychain #oil #inflation #markets
U.S. natural gas 12-month spread widened $0.10 (10%) on lower prompt price April contract fell $0.13 (4%) from $3.23 to $3.10 week ending February 13 Front-month price decreased $0.18 (5%) from $3.42 to $3.24 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG
A $12B rare earth stockpile is a step in the right direction, but buying from China on the open market isn’t independence; it’s a piggy bank with a very fragile supply chain. Until we build domestic processing, this is a...
Egypt expects electricity demand to increase by 7% this summer. That means strong demand for LNG imports. Egypt's LNG demand reached record high last year. 👇👇
The natural gas party is over U.S. natural gas futures price fell $0.18 (5%) from $3.42 to $3.24 week ending February 6 My outlook suggests a modest floor Increase (~$0.25), not a rally forming #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas...
A decade ago, I wrote an essay @ForeignAffairs about rise of US LNG w subhead "The benign energy superpower." https://t.co/P9r14hfb11 This week @MunSecConf, the Q I got most was whether Europe can trust US LNG to be reliable. And privately, senior...
Speculative money is leaning back into oil as traders look for stability in a volatile world writes @Ole_S_Hansen Oil is becoming the preferred risk exposure in an otherwise uncertain macro landscape. Relative calm in crude contrasts with violent reversals in precious...
EU fossil imports met 58% of energy demand in 2023 - near pre-crisis levels - leaving consumers exposed to price shocks. Far above China (24%) & India (37%); only Japan (84%) & S. Korea (80%) rely more on imports. Graph: @ember_energy...
Drain America First U.S. natural gas exports rise toward 20 Bcf/d in 2027 #NaturalGas #EnergySecurity #ShaleGas #Permian #EnergyInfrastructure #SupplyConstraints #USGas https://t.co/rmLKJzpmpS
U.S. natural gas supply growth Is peaking @yagelski @websterdrake Permian is the only play that's growing Other shale gas plays are flat or declining & conventional gas is in terminal decline #NaturalGas #EnergySecurity #ShaleGas #Permian #EnergyInfrastructure #SupplyConstraints #USGas
Read your chart @yagelski It shows that the US is awash in natural gas DEMAND not supply Pipelines, storage & power-plant hookups lag demand, as they always do. This is an infrastructure problem, not a resource problem. #NaturalGas #EnergyInfrastructure #LNG #PowerMarkets #GridConstraints...
The oil “glut” exists in models, not in physical barrels, writes @MeesEnergy Backwardation holds, volatility stays calm, and the barrels everyone talks about don’t show up in stocks. Models say surplus. The market says otherwise. #OilMarkets #OPECplus #Backwardation #EnergySecurity #SupplyRisk #ChinaOil...
Macro: MOEX flat as oil steadies and gold spikes; RUB strengthens (USD/RUB 76.65). Key drivers: commodity moves, stable RVI (24.9). Risks: commodity volatility, sanctions. Trade: buy selective energy exporters on RUB resilience. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
How I Called The Top In Silver & What Comes Next $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL We also about my yen monetization framework, oil, AI-driven software disruption & timing a historic rotation into large-cap value. https://t.co/0A5l9bLx9C
Brent futures price fell $0.30 from $68.05 to $67.75 week ending February 13 12-month spread suggests sideways price movement on Monday #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/hYd0O6d84E
Show me the glut WTI 12-month spread narrowed $0.06 (2%) for the week ending February 13 6-month spread narrowed $0.11 (9%) Front-month price fell $0.66 (1%) from $63.55 to $62.89 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/1VHaA5PFZN
Shell base case assumes sustained 3.3% global growth GDP nearly doubles by 2050 #GlobalGDP #EconomicGrowth #EnergyScenarios #Shell #Macroeconomics #GrowthAssumptions #LongTermForecasts https://t.co/meXF1PuaVe
CHART OF THE DAY: Among the world's top oil consumers, a curious trend. The 2nd largest consumption drop last year ocurred in Saudi Arabia, where demand fell ~60,000 b/d (only South Korea saw a larger drop). The reason? Gas is...
Pemex is back in the bond market after six years — and demand was strong. This doesn't signal confidence in Pemex. Buyers are really underwriting the Mexican state. https://t.co/YRGXmzi4aW #Pemex #Mexico #OilMarkets #EnergySecurity #SovereignRisk #DebtMarkets #EmergingMarkets
