Middle East Sulfur Reliance Fuels Fertilizer Supply Shock
"Fertilizer Shock Escalates as New Supply Risks Emerge" https://t.co/lgfrgMYRFg "almost half of the world’s supply of sulfur—which is turned into sulfuric acid for the processing of phosphate fertilizer—comes from countries in the Middle East" And US tariffs are making things worse:
UK Urged to Cap Energy Profits Amid Price Surge
The UK should consider temporarily capping the profits of energy companies to protect consumers as prices spike in the wake of the Iran conflict, a top government adviser says https://t.co/fNlKVlPQy2 https://t.co/Smfsfn7hi3
Historic 400M‑Barrel Release Won’t Ease Prices
400 million barrels. Largest emergency stockpile release in history. $BRN still at $112. The market is telling you exactly what it's pricing: this won't be enough. Think. https://t.co/t5SmTDXuzM
Impending LNG Shortage Highlights Energy Security Risks
The last LNG tankers from the Gulf arrive in the next 10 days. After that, many countries face a sharp drop in supply. Qatar's Ras Laffan — 20% of global LNG — could be offline for 3-5 years. Fossil fuel...
Iran Rakes $2.5B From Oil Amid War
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, it’s still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) that’s a ~$2.5...
Middle East War Fuels Energy Nightmare, Says Reuters
Three weeks into the Middle East war, this is where we are from an energy point of view - a nightmare scenario. A weekend read from @Reuters https://t.co/xnlY5DLrvT
Trump Can’t Count on TACO Amid Iran Hormuz Threat
TACO is not an option for Trump, writes @biancoresearch He can't leave Iran in control of Hormuz Crude won’t calm down and markets won’t recover. #IranWar #Hormuz #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Trump #Geopolitics #Macro #MiddleEast
Closed Hormuz Lifts Oil $2‑3 Daily; Attacks Cause Spikes
I continue to expect crude prices to grind $2-3/bbl higher every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But if you start playing energy facility tit for tat that trend starts getting some step-change bumps real quick.
Oil‑Yen Link Signals Bigger Carry‑trade Risk
Everyone is watching oil in dollars. Almost nobody is watching oil in yen. That's where the real risk is. If Japan panics, the carry trade unwinds again — and this time it won't be a two-day event. I laid it all out on CNBC...
Iran's Qatar Attack Fuels US LNG Demand Surge
Iran’s attacks on Qatar’s LNG export plant could be one of the biggest tailwinds yet to the fast-growing US LNG sector 🇺🇸 🚢 🇹🇼 Taiwan said it plans to buy more LNG from the US from June 🇧🇩 Bangladesh is exploring...
Closed Hormuz Could Push Brent Above $220 per Barrel
In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, "that means $250-$300 price of oil (Brent)" argues @Rory_Johnston. Because a giant price shock is needed to destroy 15 million barrels per day of demand $220+ "almost guaranteed." https://t.co/fnf6ENgf0N https://t.co/yakBRYsHgc
Silver Bubble, Gold Bull, Then Massive Market Crash
Exactly as I warned in advance - TWICE now: Mega Silver Bubble Meets Mega Gold Bull Market - BEFORE a 7-sigma downdraft https://t.co/8hEosW0Op2 and just last week: Gold Is Just Another Risk Asset Now - BEFORE the latest sell-off https://t.co/BiIpfFJ2fA #MarketTiming
Brent’s $110 Price Already Reflects Hefty Risk Premium
There's so many people talking about oil going to $150 or $200, but those numbers are a stretch because Brent around $110 already embeds a big risk premium. Big thanks to @paulkrugman for having me on his podcast to talk...
Nikkei Rejects Gas Subsidies, Calls for Conservation
Japan’s top business newspaper comes out to oppose additional subsidies on gasoline prices (which hit a record this month) 🇯🇵 ⛽️ The policy will support consumption in a period of tight supply Instead, the Nikkei calls for energy conservation (and for Tokyo...
Sanctions Relief Risks Oil Drop, Treasury Turns Trader
Bessent is trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through sanctions relief. 140M barrels of Iranian oil. A temporary lift. Geopolitical chess. If it works, oil falls. If it fails, $110 looks cheap. The Treasury Sec is now an oil trader. Welcome to...
WTI Dips to $98.32, Monday Volatility Expected
WTI futures price fell $0.39 from $98.71 to $98.32 week ending March 20 Somewhat higher price movement is likely on Monday based on 12-month spreads #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/6kUedQJUDr
Export Ban Would Cripple US Production, Swell Inventories
Oil expert Stephen Schork on the potential US oil export ban: "An export ban would be catastrophic for US oil production bc. all it would do is pent up more supply here in the US of oil we don't necessarily use......
Oil Market Defined by Volatility, Not Direction, Amid Hormuz Closure
Extreme volatility, not price direction, is the defining feature of the oil market @ArjunNMurti Bull can become bear with the snap of a finger The longer Hormuz stays closed, the greater the risk not just to oil prices, but to demand,...
Gold's Fastest Rally Since 1980 Signals Bull Market
$5,000 Gold Stretched Akin to 1980, 2011 Highs - Highlighting the extreme velocity of gold's rally, the store of value at the end of February reached the greatest premium to its 60-month moving average since 1980 and lowest ever vs. the...
WTI Crude Plummets $27 in Two Days
Yes, but there is more to it than just that..... such as the $27 spread in CLK26/CLK28 May 26 WTI Crude Oil Futures settled $98.23 May 28 WTI Crude Oil Futures settled $71.23
Brent Prices Signal Ongoing Iran Conflict, WTI Lags
Oil expert Stephen Schork on Brent & WTI prices & the war in Iran: "[The WTI contract] is the hope market. The Brent market is the real market that is pricing the real events going on, and that blowup [Brent...
Rising Oil Prices May Trigger an Economic Recession
Will higher oil cause a recession? @sonusvarghese and I discussed this in our latest Glass Half Full. https://t.co/Jc7IFlbB5X
India’s Tanker Move May Pave Way for Iran’s Dominance
FEDWATCH: “.. If [India’s tanker] passage is successful, other countries may follow the Indian example. .. “.. the only way crude price volatility cools off is if there is a decisive winner, which is increasingly looking to be Iran.” [Emons]...
Ethanol Blending Fuels Jobs, Revenue, Not Just Cost
It’s not really that simple… Ethanol prices depending on the cost of production… At 5% blending, the ethanol component is 5.5 cents…. Should we stop blending? Not really… that ethanol value chain creates jobs for thousands of people… it creates opportunities...
China Polysilicon Prices Plunge over 13% Year‑to‑date.
China polysilicon prices fall over 13% year-to-date as below-cost selling persists #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/09RxxnPHxz
Farmers Fear Fertilizer Shortages Over Prices
This was a good chat on @CNBC Friday about fertilizer supply. The issue for farmers isn’t about high prices for this year’s planting season — they’ve already ordered. The issue is whether they’ll get delivery on their order at all. @moneymoverscnbc https://t.co/uaoLjqU0Vc https://t.co/pBZlY83EA0
Iran's Pre‑War Oil Output Peaks, Boosting Condensates for Asia
CHART OF THE DAY: Despite sanctions, ahead of the war, Iran's total oil production had hit a 46-year high. Although most of the attention is on crude, Iran has focused in expanding its output of condensates and natural gas liquids —...
Middle East War Triggers Unprecedented Global Oil Supply Disruption
The International Energy Agency in Paris reports “the war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” TRUMP & NETANYAHU'S WAR PLANNERS -- NOT THE SHARPEST KNIVES IN THE DRAWER --...
Brent's 54% Surge Signals Supply Shock Over Fed
Brent crude: $110/barrel. Up 54% in a month. Let that sink in. Fifty-four percent. In thirty days. This isn't a price move. This is a supply shock. And supply shocks don't negotiate with Fed dot plots. Everything you think you know about 2026...
Sanctions Waiver Undermines “Maximum Pressure” On Iran
Why on earth aren't major media outlets asking this obvious question? The Trump administration just issued a sanctions waiver allowing 140 million barrels of Iranian oil currently at sea to be sold. Meanwhile, Iran's oil exports have surged before the...
Prolonged High Oil Prices Harm Economy Over Time
A look at #Oil prices, post 2010 we have been able to handle elevated prices, but elevated prices and rates aren't a positive when duration is applied #energy #Economics #Chartdaddy
Sulfur Squeeze Looms, Cavvy Energy Highly Exposed
This is from like two hours of my work as an amateur but in my opinion the sulfur squeeze could be immense and Cavvy Energy has the most exposure to sulfur prices
US LNG Seizes Market as Competitor Corridor Fails
“Just enough damage to knock competing infrastructure offline. U.S. LNG steps into the gap. The competing corridor is gone before it opens.” US LNG stocks are outperforming as LNG glut is removed & US restructuring plans in GCC are quietly negotiated. #IranWar
Fuel Shortages Shut 40% of Laos Stations, Third in Cambodia
Around 40% of gas stations in Laos and about a third in Cambodia have closed because of fuel shortages.
Silver Below 20‑Week MA Signals Potential Drop to $50
$Silver - Closed the week below the 20 week MA. That may lead to further downside to the yearly pivot at 61.33. If it breaks below 61 we will likely see a crash to 50, the level of the major...
Gold Below 20‑week MA; 4400 Break Could Trigger Crash
$Gold - Closed the week below the 20 week MA for the 1st time since 2023. Since it didn't break the February low(4402), I'm not sure it's significant. It depends on whether it holds above 4400 or not. If it...
Oil Super‑cycle Myth Fails in Debt‑laden, Low‑growth World
Goehring & Rozencwajg's oil super-cycle has have been wrong for a decade The argument is disconnected from a debt-saturated, low-growth, war-fractured world Scarcity can spike price But it can also crush demand, trigger recession, & kill the bull case https://t.co/fOpvyVFTKH #Oil #OilMarkets #Energy #Macro #Recession...
EU Urges Immediate Gas Storage Refilling Across Member States
EU tells member states not to wait to fill up gas storage https://t.co/QWu2AXIWUa via @johnainger https://t.co/iuJD7NDt15
Oil Shocks Trap Fed, Spark Volatility and Equity Losses
The 1973 oil embargo lasted six months and triggered a 48% drawdown in the S&P 500. This conflict is three weeks old. Oil already up 40%. Supply-driven oil shocks create the same policy trap every time. The Fed can't ease because...
Trump's Iran Waiver Releases 140M Barrels, May Cut Prices
🟥TRUMP’S SURPRISE IRAN OIL U-TURN: 30-Day Waiver Unlocks 140M Barrels: ▪️Will IT LOWER OIL PRICES? (ask your company to subscribe) Link: https://t.co/XUVxhDoQuD
Middle East Crisis Disrupts Global Energy Distribution Networks
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry "..headlines focus on price of oil at the pump, a deeper story lies in dislocation of energy markets and the global breakdown in the traditional distribution...
Fed's Higher Inflation Forecast Meets Stubborn Oil Shock
Fed raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%. With Brent above $113 and the Strait of Hormuz shut, good luck hitting even that number. Oil shocks don't resolve in a quarter. Ask anyone who traded through 1973. https://t.co/ILkHjGA6m2
Gulf Oil Disruption Marks Historic, Long‑term Shock
Gulf oil and gas flows may take months or years to restore. That means this is not a temporary price spike. It's the biggest oil shock in history And it hits the heart of the global economy. https://t.co/DOP0vnh2av #OilMarkets #LNG #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #IranWar
Gold Drops Despite Strong Technicals; Contrarian Wins
Unreal amount of why is gold down posts gold had more than doubled an was 100% above its 200 wma (highest since the 70's). Selling the news is not some big mystery. Keep in mind the largest returns came from...
US Lifts Iran Oil Sanctions, but Supply Stays Scarce
US suspends Iran oil sanctions for a month, allowing sale of all barrels on water as of March 20. Another band-aid. There are no more than 30 million barrels of Iranian oil in floating storage waiting for buyers, as per ship-tracking...
United Trims 5% Capacity as Oil Hits $175 per Barrel
United Airlines planning for oil to reach record $175/barrel, cutting 5% capacity https://t.co/SC3sCiQctU (via TAC/Intel)
Middle East Oil On
In just two weeks, Middle East Oil on Water has collapsed by 175 Million Barrels. "Truly staggering" - @Rory_Johnston (it's his chart). "It’s impossible to overstate the magnitude of this dislocation." 1/3 https://t.co/iYwEtzNH9E
US Loans 45M Barrels, Far Below 86M Offer
US loans ~45 millions barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — significantly fewer barrels than the 86 million the government offered as part of the SPR “exchange” first tranche.
Qamar Energy CEO Declares Oil Crisis Unprecedented
Oil crisis: 'nothing comes close to this', says Qamar Energy CEO https://t.co/tC2I61KQyK via @mattfrei @QamarEnergy
Hormuz Blockage Could Push Oil Above $93, Sparking Global Crisis
The market is currently betting that this whole "Hormuz problem" gets cleaned up in the next 30 days. And I’m looking at the data from my office in Abu Dhabi, and so far it’s heading that way. But if that two-mile-wide...