Commodities Videos

How Oil Prices Could Disrupt the Global Economy | Economic Update | Deloitte Insights

Deloitte’s chief economist Ira Kalish warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could move from speculative price spikes to actual physical constraints on oil, gas and commodity supplies. He explained that earlier price hikes were driven by investor anxiety, not supply cuts, but now physical disruptions may force demand to fall. Because consumer price sensitivity remains low, only a dramatic price level—estimated $150‑$200 a barrel—would curb consumption enough to match limited supply. Kalish noted that such a price range would “have a disruptive impact on the global economy” and could trigger a recession in major economies, while also pushing inflation higher and forcing central banks to reconsider monetary easing. The outlook suggests businesses should brace for higher energy costs, reassess budgeting, and monitor policy shifts, as sustained high oil prices could reshape growth forecasts worldwide.