Disagree. They have shown themselves and the world they have a solid deterrent, tbh. A nuke isn’t anywhere as usable as the deterrent they now provably possess and can improve on, and does not come with problems and existential fears of a nuke. Also forever changed world order.

The Hapag Lloyd container ship Source Blessing was hit by projectile fragments in the straight of Hormuz earlier today. Hapag reports that it was not a direct hit, all crew are safe, and they have extinguished the fire on...
Looks like #China is about ready to enter the discussion on the War. You figured that was coming.....
I got asked on the news today is Cybersecurity a field that is being impacted by AI or is it a safe field? I explained how I struggle with this personally as well - there's a lot of fear, uncertainty and...
I was assured by numerous naval sources that the Navy would be ready. I didn’t think the Navy would be ready. But I did think it would take less than a full month.
Dan’s subhead: “Gulf War Three is not going well for the United States”. I believe Dan Drezner knows more than I do about what is currently going on with the Epstein-Netanyahu-Trump War on Iran, so I turn the microphone over to...
He thinks this is a game. I warned early and often: IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN Trump says "we could do a lot worse" to Iran. "We could take them out by this afternoon. In fact, within an...
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 United States says Navy is not ready to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. It would be 'suicide'. So the war wages on while Trump sends ameteur AI videos from the WH to evoke fake gamer...
The Blind Spot is hosting former aerospace & defence journalist Nick Cook, author of The Hunt for Zero Point, for an exclusive dinner in West London on March 25. Expect conversation on advanced military tech, disclosure developments, audience Q&A, and book...
Up until roughly the 1970s, most civilian technological progress was downstream of military technological progress. The trend has since inverted. Today most of the modern (e.g. Ukraine) military playbook comes from consumer tech from the past two decades. With AI entering...
Iran says it hit an American tanker. If true…. Iraq has spent the last few days upping the danger for ships. The global risk keeps increasing for ships, crew, and cargo. The Strait of Hormuz and no safe movement...
Energy Secretary Wright says U.S. ‘not ready’ to escort tankers through Strait of Hormuz yet. CNBC
Interesting interview with Oleksandr Kamyshin. He says 11 countries in the Middle East, Europe, and U.S.A have requested official assistance for Shaheds recently. Also Ukraine offered last year.

The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed to ship traffic because of Iran's attacks. Every Iranian attack is a negotiation. Iran knows it has leverage and is trying to end this war on favorable terms. Only way out is for...

The thing with this war is that there's no easy off-ramp for Trump. Simply declaring "mission accomplished" won't cut it if Iran keeps attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has leverage Venezuela and others didn't have and it's...
NEW ODD LOTS - CYBERWAR AND AI Legendary hacker @msuiche talks to me and @TheStalwart about cyber warfare in the age of AI. We talk: - Iran's capabilities - The intersection of kinetic & digital warfare - The impact of AI on coding, hacking, SaaS...
Mysterious Lull in Chinese Military Flights Leaves Taiwan Guessing—Pause stokes uncertainty about Beijing’s intentions as world focuses on Middle East @joyuwang https://t.co/f0x5nq3FHt https://t.co/f0x5nq3FHt

Macron is proposing that France expand its nuclear deterrent to help shield the entire European Union. This comes at a time when Europe is losing confidence in the United States' security guarantees. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/brXS2oYT9J https://t.co/YPp7v8IkmX
It’s not impotence; it was a military strategy and doctrine grounded in deterrence. It worked well for decades, but is now a million targets that cannot be protected in an active war in the drone era.
Videos from Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, SSO, and GUR’s Prymary unit of FP-2 and other UAS middle strikes on 64N6E, 48a6-K1 Podlet, Sopka-2, P-18 Terek, RSP-6 M2, and Kasta-2 radar; Geran ground relay; Tor-M2, S-300V, ammunition depots, and other targets....
NYT: Ukraine Reaches a Milestone: Making ‘China-Free’ Drones—The country has prioritized self-sufficiency in producing a crucial battlefield weapon, though weaning itself fully off cheaper Chinese components is difficult. https://t.co/1VEbDkSJyw
Why hasn't the UNSC condemned the US and Israel attacks on Iran? Oh silly me. The US is a permanent UNSC member with a veto. And Israel pulls its strings.
US/Israel vs Iran War in a NUTSHELL Iran is definitely taking the blows, heavy blows…. But Iran is the winner by just resilience and fighting back… https://t.co/fuE7pL2ysb
Overnight Iran reacted to the IEA's oil release intensifying its attacks on regional energy targets, including two small-sized fuel tankers in Iraq. Tehran knows oil is what could force President Trump to end the war early. Still, both Brent and...
Macro: Leonardo targets strong growth—orders €25bn, revenues €21bn, EBITA €2.03bn. Key: state backing, cash generation; Risk: execution, defence budget shifts. Trade: buy on pullback 📈. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Let me tell you the secret difference between a Navy and merchant ship captain that goes beyond the obvious. It’s 1AM & I feel sick to my stomach over this war and can’t sleep. I’m at a shipowner conference & I had...
“One casualty of the strikes on Iran should be the ugly acronym ‘CRINK’…Although the four countries share an opposition to the United States…there is little that unites…beyond the Chinese Communist Party’s solipsistic pursuit of its own interests.” https://t.co/p4n7y6ZuGu
Exclusive: US intelligence says Iran government is not at risk of collapse, say sources https://t.co/HRPmb0prDr
Six vessels attacked in Gulf, Strait of Hormuz as war puts merchant ships on front lines https://t.co/pAYt6WBG5O
'Don't know about it': Trump plays dumb after US military admits it hit Iranian school https://t.co/fCHq47pjQo
We are witnessing the end of globalization If the US military with the massive armada assembled within 500 miles can’t protect ships in this region, we stand little chance of protecting our container shipments from Asia in the event of a...

#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan warns: “We must not fall for the Zionist massacre network’s game of “killing the bird with someone else’s stone”. We are taking the necessary precautions against bloody scenarios that some want to stage in our region.” https://t.co/2JesCmUlN4
As you observe the war have you considered “mutually assured destruction?” Does that exist now? No. An oldie but goodie from a Nobel winner on my podcast, discussing the issue, game theory: https://t.co/7kaWq2OyDD

Simply had to share this. Ian Bremmer's take on where Iran currently stands on the TACO-FAFO spectrum. https://t.co/mfNXtENe1q
Fully agree with General Petraeus. The U.S. and Israel have had enormous success. The operation continues. The straights of Hormuz a significant variable at the moment.

#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan emphasizes: “We are moving carefully to protect Türkiye from the fire surrounding it. We have never viewed the Iranian people as Shia or Sunni, Turk or Kurd. For us, there is no ‘Sunni-ism’ or ‘Shia-ism’—only Islam.” https://t.co/zPyvCgXvIE
About to jump on CNBC @asiasquawkbox to talk about the Iran War, the Strait of Hormuz, the latest tanker attacks in the Gulf, and tonight’s jump in the price of crude. Tune in! https://t.co/myMaR7VRA7
Did B-2s Just Drop GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators On Another Iranian Nuclear Site? Satellite imagery shows a prized hardened facility at Iran's Parchin military complex with three massive impact points in a neat row on top. https://t.co/iqrFn2XO2R
This is just my wild guess: If the IRGC continues to block the Strait of Hormuz and begins targeting China-linked vessels, Beijing may not rule out the possibility of deploying naval forces to escort commercial ships through the strait. That said, naval...
How AI is turning Iran conflict into theater There’s a confluence of factors at play. AI coding tools mean people don’t need much technical skill to assemble open-source intelligence anymore, and chatbots can offer fast, if dubious, analysis of it. Yup.....
UN Security Council Condemns #Iran Attacks Against Gulf Neighbors The resolution, proposed by Bahrain on behalf of GCC, decried Iran’s retaliation against civilian targets, including energy facilities, as an international law violation. @Magdalena_971 https://t.co/P9t8JHNDMg
The Malta-flagged 50k ton Greek-owned tanker and Marshall Is-flagged 74k ton American-owned tanker is on fire in the anchorage off Iraq. It is suspected the ships were hit by Iranian unmanned surface vessels (USVs). The ships were involved...

JTBC an Iranian Shahed drone has a range of about 2000 km For one to hit California, it would have to be launched from the middle of the ocean. Even smuggled into Hawaii, it wouldn't make it to CA. The only way...
Russian intel recruited ordinary citizens across Europe to post packages to the UK and Poland that turned out to contain explosives. I hadn't heard about this when the couriers were arrested. Now one has spoken about how he was tricked...
I'm no Middle East expert, but looking at how Ukraine, without a Navy, destroyed the Russian Black Sea fleet using cheap drones, I would expect Iran, which is 3x larger than Ukraine, will find a way to block the Strait...
NEW FROM WAPO: The Iranian school building where scores of children were killed as the U.S. and Israel began their massive aerial campaign was on a U.S. target list and may have been mistaken for a military site, multiple people...
Evergreen argument. Unfortunately, I've heard this same argument many times on Russia ("Beijing should pressure Moscow" to deescalate with Ukraine), North Korea ("Beijing should coerce and pressure for denuclearization"), and Pakistan ("Beijing should press its partner" in at least two...
They gutted the team that operationally helps the US military avoid civilian casualties during war. Then we killed over 150 schoolgirls by accidentally bombing their school. This administration is torching American soft power.
Thank you to everyone who read and commented on our story about the Pentagon shutting out photographers for publishing “unflattering” photos of Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth. As always, I’m reachable on Signal at scottnover.99 if there’s anything you think I...
"Can America and Israel finish the job? A conversation with John Spencer." I had a great talk w/ my dear friend @havivrettiggur on his "Ask Haviv Anything" podcast. We talk about strategy, uncertainty, and the price of waiting too long...