Iran's Missile Strikes Fall, Drones Persist via China
We've seen a confirmed drop in Iran's missile attacks, but drones remain the larger LT threat. The complication that I'll be following closely is China's role. With Chinese shipments of drone components still entering Iran, the US will have to decide when and if to cut that off. #iranwar #drones #geopolitics
U.S. Sub Sinks Iranian Warship to Protect Shipping
This is the question every admiral in the Pentagon was asking early this week that the media hasn’t covered. There is outrage in anti-Trump circles after a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship because it looked like an unfair fight. While weak...
US
We now have reporting both that there was another Iranian Navy ship in the area, and also that the U.S. government took measures appropriate under Intl law to ensure rescue authorities were notified of the sinking of IRIS Dena, and...
UK Claims No US Aid, yet Relies on US Navy
Starmer repeatedly says Britain isn’t helping the US Navy Meanwhile his defense minister argues the UK doesn’t need to defend it’s territory because US Navy destroyers are doing it for them Why are 🇺🇸 ships protecting UK territory instead of focusing on...
Iran Signals Possible De‑Escalation, Strait Oil Flow Uncertain
Neighbouring countries will no longer be targeted, unless attacks originate from there, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says. What does this mean? — This could be the first sign of de-escalation in the one-week-old war. — Time will tell if Pezeshkian was actually speaking...
Ukraine Hits Shahed Missile Hub at Donetsk Airport
Ukraine’s General Staff posted footage of a strike on Shahed storage and launch location in Donetsk airport with ATACMS and SCALP missiles. https://t.co/r3Dg02y4Ci https://t.co/pt5k00tXIW
Polymarket Predicts US Troops in Iran by Year‑end
MASSIVE: Polymarket traders expect US forces to enter Iran before the end of the year. https://t.co/2rC7Fs38kh
Forecasting Iran-Israel Conflict's Escalation Path
As a global forecaster, I’ve been closely watching the escalation dynamics around the Iran–Israel war. Subscribers to my research have already been tracking this trajectory, but for those following events more broadly, here are my key predictions for how this conflict...
Insurance, Not Weapons, Keeps Strait of Hormuz Closed
Crazy the Strait of Hormuz isn’t closed really due to the mass employment of mines, anti ship missiles and swarming boat attacks but …. insurance.
Reduced Missile Threats Open Arabian Sea Route for Israel
Makes sense now that the ballistic missile threat and drone threat has greatly subsided for Israel. Better access from Arabian Sea.
US‑Israel Blitz Reveals Next‑Gen Allied Combat Tactics
"The future of war? US-Israel blitz on Iran unveils next-gen allied combat." @FoxNews I had a great conversation with @EfratLachter about the U.S.-Israel cooperation and performance in the war. https://t.co/vwCdVtwpLx
Judge Doubts Pentagon's Press Access Restrictions
I was there today. What's not said is DoJ's attorney was very low energy, hard to hear and seemed just going through his paces; Hegseth’s attorney Tim Parlatore sat with him .. Federal judge appears skeptical of Pentagon’s restrictions on press...
Lebanese Justice Minister to Pursue Hezbollah Leader Prosecutor
Big if it happens: The Lebanese Minister of Justice will request the prosecution of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah.
Putin Benefits as Russia Aids Iran, US Relaxes Sanctions
russia providing iran with targeting assistance against the us military. us reducing sanctions on russian oil export. quite the both/and for putin.
US‑Israel Air Dominance Enables Massive JDAM Strikes
Like @SecWar said, now that the U.S. and Israel have air superiority if not supremacy, a much greater larger amount of attacks using large diameter JDAMs can occur.
Ukraine Feedback Boosts Merops, Guides US Drone Strategy
Merops has performed well in Ukraine and the system has been continuously improved in response to feedback from Ukrainian drone units and adaptations in Russia’s employment of Shahed / Geran OWA UAS. It is a good example of how the...
US $20B War‑Risk Backstop Fails to Attract Tankers
US offers a $20B maritime war-risk reinsurance backstop to coax tankers back into the Gulf No one wants it It doesn’t provide shipowners the incentive they need to sail into a war zone. #Hormuz #oilmarkets #shipping #geopolitics
Satellites Have Long Enabled Journalists to Send Field Reports
Journalists have been uploading imagery and text for decades by satellite. I myself did it in Helmand in 2010, and the equipment I was using wasn't new then.
From Lecture Hall to Frontline: Kyiv Lecturer’s Rifle
Four years ago these days in Kyiv. That was a university lecturer's desk, and the rifle was his, too. https://t.co/Oko8QzEDNW
Airpower Alone Can't Topple Regimes, History Shows
I think one reason that many of us are skeptical that the regime in Tehran will fall with airpower alone is that the US also tried this in Iraq in 1991, as Operation Desert Storm transitioned into the no-fly zones...
Check Your Data Exposure with Free Breach Lookup Tools
“To check if your details have appeared in any other public data breaches, there are a number of online tools that you can use, such as https://t.co/nppjjGzwdR” 😎
Anduril Prioritizes Battle OS Over Platforms in Combat Race
"The thing that really matters is the autonomy behaviours that should be sovereign, because we can swap out vehicles.” How Anduril is building the battle OS first, platforms second as West races to rebuild combat mass #avgeek https://t.co/69i5ruKVXK https://t.co/nJuPlxPPGf
NASA Justifies Sole-Source ULA Contract for Artemis Upper Stages
It's happening. "This justification provides the rationale for contracting by other than full and open competition to award a sole-source contract to United Launch Alliance (ULA) to procure replacement upper stages for use in the Space Launch System (SLS) for the...
Trump Claims Defense Firms Will Quadruple Weapon Production, Details Vague
Statement from Trump after meeting with RTX, Lockheed, Northrop, Boeing, L3Harris and Honeywell on munitions. Trump says: "They have agreed to quadruple Production of the 'Exquisite Class' Weaponry" but unclear what is new from previously announced agreements.
Panama's Port Seizures Curb China's Regional Maritime Influence
While the ports seized by Panama weren't a direct military threat, they're strategically significant. Removing China from the equation makes Chinese activity in the region more difficult, especially as the U.S. Navy steps away from its role as global protector...
Reject Politicized Criticism; Focus on Official War Goals
Crappy analysis. I agree strategy and strategic goals should be debated in the public and by our elected officials. But I personally can't stand politicized, biased, and inaccurate criticism viewed by some as analysis about the U.S. war goals in...
Accusatory Article Ignores Second Iranian Warship Presence
What we do know now is that your accusatory article is fundamentally flawed - there was another Iranian warship in the area. And yet you seem to stand by it, unedited. https://t.co/w6a9Zhpl6X
Israel Strikes Deep Tehran IRGC Command Tunnel
More than 50 Israeli aircraft dropped bunker busting and penetrating precision bombs (a lot of them) on a deep buried military tunnel complex in Tehran used by the IRGC Supreme Command (whoever that is right now). No BDA yet. @jconricus
Russia Provides Iran with US Asset Locations for Strikes
Russia has shared targeting intelligence with Iran, including locations of American military assets in the Middle East, as Tehran unleashes a barrage of drone and missile strikes against the US and its allies. https://t.co/Gga81FiCQh
Ballistic Missiles Exit Space, Making Interception Nearly Impossible
“Their ability to exit and re-enter the Earth's atmosphere makes them incredibly difficult to intercept.” 👏All missiles fired on ballistic trajectories travel through space, including the Iranian ones.👏
Clean Energy Funding Still Trails Military Budgets
On The Climate Brink, @hausfath.bsky.social writes about the trends of spending on clean energy vs. national defense: When will clean energy spending exceed military spending? https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/when-will-clean-energy-spending-exceed
Zelensky Visits Front Lines Amid Druzhkivka FPV Attacks
Druzhkivka is regularly targeted by FPVs. It is commendable that President Zelenskyy continues to visit units near the front line.
Ukraine Talks US, Gulf States on Acoustic Drone Defense
‚Ukraine is in talks with the US and several Gulf states about replicating Kyiv’s acoustic detection network to counter Iranian attack drones, according to people familiar with the matter.‘ https://t.co/ddTJ6sojt5
Inside USS Charlotte’s Torpedo Attack Battlestations Procedures
For an idea of what things looked like onboard USS Charlotte during its attack on IRIS Dena, this Navy video shows some of the procedures to man battlestations and conduct a torpedo attack. This is for a submerged target but...
Policy Choices Cost US Rare Earths Dominance
The backstory on exactly how the US ceded its rare earths/critical minerals dominance is here --> https://t.co/m6IQmzrJHT
Inside Russian Military Thought: Future War Lessons Revealed
Latest Russia Contingency is out. I join @OAJonsson and @MariaEngqvist to talk about how the Russian military see the future of war, their lessons learned, gaps between theory and practice, and what to make of Russian military thought. @WarOnTheRocks https://t.co/xrgDESr8RN
AI vs Ammo Shortage: Modern Air War Showdown
With AI and a full blown crisis in 'combat mass' and munitions stocks - are we at the point of horse versus tank or wooden ship versus metal battleship in air warfare? #drones #AI #avgeek https://t.co/6BD5jEJqW4 https://t.co/4o9i2XD90j
War Costs Explode: Iraq $8 Trillion, Iran Ahead
Remember the Iraq war? It was supposed to be a cake walk that would cost US taxpayers a mere $50 billion. IT ACTUALLY COST $8 TRILLION. The US taxpayer will face sticker shock when the bill for America’s war against Iran arrives. WARS...
Ukraine Sees Sharp Drop in Russian Shahed and Missile Attacks
Is this a coincidence that we in Ukraine are having a sharp decrease in the number of Russian Shahed attacks these days? I mean, it’s very noticeable. Same goes about Russian massive missile attacks.
Iran's Missile Stockpile and US Air Superiority Limits
I joined @BloombergTV to talk about two key issues that will shape the next phase of the war: the depth of Iran’s missile and drone inventory, and whether the US can establish more than localized air superiority over Iran. https://t.co/F6HeeJ3FM8
82nd Airborne HQ Exercise Canceled Amid Iran Conflict Speculation
SCOOP: The Army in recent days canceled a training exercise for the headquarters element of the 82nd Airborne Division, fueling speculation among soldiers that they may be called upon for a still undefined mission as the war with Iran widens.
OT Cybersecurity Fails Governance, Not Just Terminology
OT cybersecurity is a governance failure masquerading as a vocabulary issue | Control Global https://t.co/ppRU4DoyMR
War Directly Hits Middle East Public Cloud Infrastructure
1/ It’s a watershed moment for enterprise IT. For the 1st time, we’re seeing major public cloud infra in the Middle East physically damaged by war, not just cyberattacks or power events. Two AWS data centers in the UAE were directly struck...
Kurdish Militias Likely to Spark Iran Ground War
Why the First Shots in an Iran Ground War Could Come From the Kurds @WSJ https://t.co/iCzYnG2yEs If a ground war is to be fought in Iran, the first shots could be fired in the country’s Kurdish areas, where militias say they...
US Wins Over Iran, Reshapes Global Oil Power
"U.S. Success Against Iran Could Be a Game Changer for World Oil Security," @WSJ https://t.co/ICXqOkIlg2 If Iran, along with Venezuela, is soon ruled by a regime friendly or at least not hostile toward the U.S., that would neutralize two oil exporters...
Naval Sinking Spikes Shipping Risk, Insurance Premiums Skyrocket
DID THE NAVY JUST SINK SHIPPING? Question for @SecWar, @thejointstaff @CENTCOM @US5thFleet: Was there any discussion about the impact that sinking an Iranian frigate near a heavily trafficked shipping lane would have on global shipping. I am not privy to the...
US Submarine Not Sole Target; Iranian Support Ship Present
The most fundamental point in this @rstatecraft article that all-but-accuses U.S. submariners of committing a war crime is incorrect. Because we now know that there was, in fact, another Iranian warship in the area - the replenishment ship IRIS Bandar Abbas....
Israel Used Fake Car Sightings to Mask Iran Strike
Details into the Israeli (for sure there was a U.S. version) deception operation before the opening strike against Iran.
Iran-Israel Clash May Trigger Worldwide Power Showdown
The Iran–Israel war is not just a regional conflict. It may be part of a much larger global escalation cycle. The latest analysis looks at the wider strategic picture and how the current war could evolve into a broader confrontation involving major...
Ukraine War Enters New Phase, Shaping Future Geopolitics
Four years into the war in Ukraine, the conflict has entered a new phase. In his latest analysis, David Murrin looks at the strategic direction of the war, the pressures shaping both sides, and what the next stage of the conflict...