Hezbollah Downs Israeli Helicopter Amid 2006‑Era Midterm Tensions
Sounds like 2006 all over again...which just happens to be #MidTermElection yearr ==== HEZBOLLAH HIT ISRAELI HELICOPTER IN EAST LEBANON
Damage Likely Misidentification; Investigation Required
From the video and satellite images, the damage looks most like "(2) misidentification" to me, but an investigation is necessary.
US Foreign Policy Repeats: Monroe Doctrine to Trump
those that think recent military events and bombings are novel to Trump, are reminded of the more than 200-year old Monroe doctrine from 1823 and the follow-up Roosevelt Corollary (1904)... shared across administrations and through time... there is nothing new...
1‑2% of Tomahawk Missiles Crash Due to TERCOM Errors
Since people are rediscovering "clobbering" of cruise missiles, let me explain: Tomahawks use "terrain contour matching" (TERCOM) to find their way to targets. For reasons, about 1-2% of Tomahawks "clobber" -- get lost and fly into the ground --...
Marine Nationale Likely to Escort French Ships in Contested Waters
Any bets that the @MarineNationale will do what they did in @EUNAVFORASPIDES and escort French vessels through the contested waters for their shipping lines.
Iran’s Missile Strikes Expose US Military’s Failure
Now it’s getting clear that Iran’s attacks on US bases were effective…. The US Military has been downplaying Iran’s capabilities, but these injuries and subsequent deaths clearly indicate that the US failed to stop Iranian missiles… the Trump regime won’t...
Trump's Iran Strike Mirrors Putin's Ukraine Tactics
You don't say... How Trump’s War in Iran Has Echoes of Putin and Ukraine https://t.co/2pGSMnmdGL
Obama’s Special Ops Deployment Sparked Washington’s Boots‑on‑ground Debate
During the campaign against ISIS, Obama put U.S. special operators in Iraq and Syria, leading to an extended argument in Washington about what counted as "boots on the ground." 1/
IRGC Compound Spotted, Likely Tomahawk Missile Launch
That's definitely the IRGC compound, looking north-ish. And that does look like a TLAM. https://t.co/zEGryMmIxG
Iran Can Cripple U.S. by Blocking Strait of Hormuz
I don't generally believe stories about high American casualties or Iranian military wins. But the thing is, Iran doesn't have to 'win' militarily to defeat the U.S. They just have to put a few guns in some caves next to...
Reluctant Support for Extended Iran Deployment, Questioning CENTCOM Funding
For the record, I’m not thrilled about this whole Iran thing. I was in the camp of bulldozing @CENTCOM to fund moving @Southcom back to the Panama Canal. But if we must be there a few weeks longer… maybe… just...
Gold Isn’t a Critical Mineral for Defense or Energy Transition
I've been on the topic of critical minerals for 15 years and I have never heard gold referred to as a critical mineral. Gold is certainly valuable, but not critical to defense technologies, energy transition, or anything else that would elevate...
China's Navy Built for Global Commerce Defense, Gulf Escort Possible
Everyone has always wondered what the PLAN (Chinese Navy) was configured for. We may see this come to fruition if they send a squadron to the Persian Gulf to escort their ships. The PLAN is perfectly sized and...
Royal Navy's Mediterranean Failure Mocked by Royal Irony
Everyone’s shocked the Royal Navy can’t get a warship to the Mediterranean, let alone the Persian Gulf. But remember, King Charles also commands Canada’s Royal Navy. Surely he can dispatch her broken subs and battle kayaks for backup. https://t.co/Yo6gQLLxR6
IAEA Unlikely to Operate Solo; Joint Survey Likely
There is basically zero chance the @iaeaorg goes commando, as it were. (10x the IAEA-UNCSOM tension in post-1991 Iraq. Disaster.) More likely is an Iraq Survey Group-like arrangement, which maybe includes some friendly former IAEA inspectors and consultants.
From Iraq Mistake to Iran War: Trump's Repeating Hypocrisy
In 2016, Trump called the Iraq War and the search for nuclear weapons a “big, fat mistake.” 10 years later, Trump is waging war in Iran. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. https://t.co/zvsvJCcvwJ
Britain's Strategic Retreat Hands China Global Footholds
We had a good thing, Britain. A really good thing. You taught us this game. Mahan studied you. We just wrote bigger checks. The deal was simple. We spend the trillions. Fight the hard wars. We even let you sit out Vietnam. And...
Putin Hasn't Spoken to Trump Since Iran Strike
Geopolitics expert Alexander Mercouris on Putin-Trump's sour relations: "It is a striking fact that Putin has not spoken to Trump at any point since the start of the American operation against Iran. In fact, he has not spoken to Trump since...
Essential Read on US‑Israel War Risks to Iran
If you read one article on the US-Israel war on Iran and its many risk factors - from binary to systemic, bounded to unbounded duration - read this one. 🙏
RStatecraft's War Crime Claims on US Submariners Debunked
@rstatecraft just doubled down on its story all-but-accusing U.S. submariners of committing war crimes, even though we now know that several of its key points are factually incorrect. Amazing. Never change, @QuincyInst. https://t.co/zNquQWgVa0
US, Israel Plan Special Forces Raid on Iran's Uranium
Axios: “The US and Israel have discussed sending special forces into Iran to secure its stockpile of highly enriched uranium at a later stage of the war” 👀⏰ Nuclear material a predictable a boots-on-the-ground pretext, but what’s most worrying to me...
Navy Faces Prolonged Wear and Tear, Recovery Challenging
"“There’s going to be wear and tear on the Navy that’s going to be difficult to recover from very quickly,” said Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at [@cnasdc]." https://t.co/TW7rE9fX7S
Hormuz Closure Boosts Russian Crude to Record Highs
We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine...
Strait of Hormuz AIS Data Shows Impossible Ship Speeds
There's something going on with either AIS broadcasts (or the GPS that feeds them) near the Strait of Hormuz. Lots of ships showing impossible speeds. https://t.co/g0bFAeW8yN
US Cancels Strait of Hormuz Safety Alerts Amid War
The US Maritime Administration (@DOTMARAD) put out at the begining of the war 2 "alerts" advising vessles to "keep clear" of the Strait of Hormuz. Overnight, it cancelled the alerts (one alert was due to expire automatically, but the other was...
Iran's Plan to Outpace US‑Israel War Control Failing
“In other words, Iran hoped to widen the war faster than the United States and Israel could control it. So far, that strategy appears to be failing.”
China Faces Energy Crisis as Gulf Oil Imports Halt
China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...
Tehran Fuel Depot Hit, Iran’s Domestic Supply Crippled
Strike on a Teheran fuel depot is unconfirmed @shanaka86 If true, it's about domestic fuel, not oil exports The target choice matters. It squeezes Iran internally without blowing up global oil markets. #IranWar #oilmarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics
Iran's Regime Now Reacts, No Longer Drives War
“The Islamic regime in Iran is no longer shaping this war. It is reacting to it.”
Hormuz Traffic Stalls; Iran Maintains Chokepoint Control
The Strait of Hormuz has seen virtually ZERO movement in the past 24 hours. IRAN CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE KEY CHOKEPOINT IN THE GULF.
Tech, Not Troops, Drives Modern Military Dominance
America’s military success has never been a function of numbers of troops, it’s all about the use of advanced tech and an almost endless military supply chain
US to Field 2,400 F‑35s, Becoming Fourth‑largest Air Force
The US is planning to build up a fleet of 2400 F-35s, which would make it the 4th largest global air force alone. https://t.co/YAnXK2vCUQ
Belgium's UAE Evacuation Proves Civil Protection Mechanism Works
Belgium just airlifted 198 of their own + 39 citizens from other member states out of the UAE using the A330 MRTT via Muscat and Hurghada. This is why the Civil Protection Mechanism exists and it actually worked.
Trump’s “Unconditional Surrender” Targets Iran’s Weapons, Not Regime
"And yes, President Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender” is consistent with the political objectives stated from the beginning of the war. It does not necessarily mean the surrender of the Iranian state. It means the unconditional end of the behaviors...
Trump's Iran War Drains Nearly $1 Billion Daily
CNN reports that Trump's war in Iran is costing the US more than $890 MILLION PER DAY. WAR = MASSIVE COST = FISCAL PROBLEMS. https://t.co/NDO5P1kaiE
Iranian Radar Strikes Expose Global Missile Defense Weaknesses
Iranian Attacks On Critical Missile Defense Radars Are A Wake-Up Call Iran's successful targeting of prized missile defense radars in the Middle East highlights global vulnerabilities. Feature: https://t.co/vGqhORYAMn
Iran's Missile Fleet Crippled; Underground Storage Backfires
Iran would have been better off stuffing them in warehouses, garages etc. Centralizing all your crap (that is already road mobile) in places with a couple entrances and exits beneath a mountain is a problem when going against the USAF/IAF.
Maps Reveal Ongoing Frontline Shifts in Eastern Ukraine
Updated maps from the past few days showing Russian advances along the border in Sumy oblast, Hryshyne, and Huliaipole. https://t.co/2fOTZjg6ww https://t.co/vh0Uy67YYp
Assessing Whether the US Navy Should Seize Iranian Tankers
Should the US Navy Start Targeting & Seizing Iranian Tankers 1⃣Sea Power vs Seapower 2⃣How did the US Torpedo Global Shipping? 3⃣Convoying in the Past 4⃣Current US Naval Situation 5⃣Potential Strategy for the US H/T: @ed_fin @gCaptain @LloydsList @ianellisjones Video: https://t.co/XpwiR2J9Cb
Iran's Air War Halts Hormuz Shipping, Hits Regional Oil
Air War Against Iran Enters Week Two Iran continues to target its neighbors' oil production as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly at a stand still. Latest: https://t.co/EOkyezfgoC
Ukraine’s Shifting Launch Sites Highlight OWA’s Adaptability
Ukraine uses a variety of launch sites and changes between them. It’s much easier to adapt OWA to launching from fields, rotating sites, or even using mobile platforms. Some things in wars are observations vs lessons. Context matters.
Iran Conflict Fuels Endless Oil‑price, Russia‑Ukraine Funding Loop
So the longer the Iran conflict lasts... 1. The longer oil prices are higher 2. The longer the Trump admin allows Russian oil to be sold without sanctions 3. The more financial firepower Russia has to support Iran to prolong the conflict ...rinse and...
AI Accelerates US Iran Operations, Boosting Analyst Efficiency
“US military relying on AI as tool to speed Iran operations,” @business One of the many reasons the AI race is critical for the U.S. to lead. https://t.co/oOKSi9AgHM In the Iran campaign, AI technology has played a critical role by supporting the...
Seizing Iranian VLCCs Could De‑Escalate Conflict
My only difference with @ed_fin strategy is this: Vice hitting an Iranian VLCC, we wait until they exit the Strait and seize, a la Venezuelan tankers. Start grabbing these ships as they come out and threaten to impound them and...
Four Seafarers Killed in Hormuz; IMO Warns Crew Risks
Four Seafarers Killed in Hormuz Attack, IMO Chief Warns of Growing Risk to Crews https://t.co/Rb5FINfXKz
Iranian Shadow Fleet and Greek Vessels Dominate Hormuz Transit
Are ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz? YES Who are they? IRANIAN & GREEK Iranian Shadow Fleet and Greek Affiliated Ships Lead Strait of Hormuz Transits https://t.co/ErnBCy9pVb
US Should Apply Venezuelan Seizure Tactics to Iranian Tankers
Okay, why is this a surprise? The Iranians have been loading at Kharg the entire time. It seems like the US could use that experience of seizing 10 Venezuelan tankers and start leveraging that capability against the 38 Iranian VLCCs.
Red Sea Tactics Resurface Against Iranian‑backed Houthis
Deja vu to the Red Sea of two years ago. We saw this same exact tactic against the Houthi. Which makes sense as the Iranians backed the Houthis.
Regime‑change Gamble Ignores Iran's Nuclear Reality
Again, because, at least implicitly, the aim is regime change and the theory is a new regime will solve the proliferation problem. It is not a wise strategy because these are foolish men.
Allies Alarmed as US Diverts Weapons to Iran War
NEW: U.S. allies are watching in disbelief as DOD reroutes weapons to aid the Iran war, worried long-promised American arms will never come. “The munitions that have been and will be fired are the ones that everybody needs,” said one European...