Long-Term Treasuries Turn Risk‑On, Driven by Hedge‑Fund Basis Trades
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman Islands" if "Caymans" meant "levered US hedge fund UST basis trade." https://t.co/1yOFjZ9uAL
2‑Year Yield Slides to Session Low, Bears Struggle
Treasury bears tried to claw back after the 705am ET yield plunge, but the 2yr yield is back on the session lows... down 10bps to 3.81% https://t.co/Cq2pe8M3wf
Treasury Auction Calendar Reveals Hidden Liquidity Map
This is a US Treasury auction schedule and it’s actually a liquidity map in disguise. Here’s the simple breakdown:
One Budget, Three Functions: Design Over Discipline
One budget. Three jobs: set targets, reflect reality, and allocate resources. Pieter van Loosbroek asks: Is the issue really discipline—or budget design? 🔗 Read here: https://t.co/t2jvTdo9Fq #fpatrends #planning #budgeting https://t.co/NqZNGPdDAK
Hedge Funds Buy 120 BCF Gas, Still Below Historic Levels
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 120 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major gas futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 17....
UK Gilts Suffer Worst Month Since Truss Amid Oil Spike
Gilts face worst month since Liz Truss as oil spike jolts UK market https://t.co/hvaQFGeXXa via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/K33eBm9D5V
DLO's Post-IPO Multiples Keep Compressing To
New to the name... why have multiples continued to compress since IPO? 13x next years earnings $DLO
Poste Italiane Bids €10.8bn for Telecom Italia
The re-Post Officication of telecoms was not something I expected to read this morning: Poste Italiane launches €10.8bn bid for Telecom Italia via @FT https://t.co/gR3vmnrlkX
Weak Stock Prices Fueled 2015, 2018 Buybacks, M&A
BofA: Weaker stock prices were behind the jump in share buybacks and M&A spending in 2015 and 2018. https://t.co/zOxaox8YSB
Oil Shock Could Trigger Bond Market Turmoil, Warns FT
The Financial Times’ Katie Martin: “It is hard, in that environment, to pick the market moves that really matter. This week’s wild ride in UK government bonds is, I think, one of them. It is an early warning sign of...
Airlines' Abandoned Fuel Hedges Signal Rising Ticket Prices
Oh no! US airlines are no longer hedged against oil price shocks. Now we will all be paying in higher fares. Just like PJM states who didn't hedge against the recent increase. And California in 2000-2001. Hindsight is 20-20 but...
Markets Reprice Inflation Shock, Not Recession Fears
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
UK Firms Accelerate £30bn Share Buyback Surge
What’s behind the UK’s £30bn share buyback boom? - The Times and The Sunday Times https://t.co/ajOCo5YkMa
Finished Taxes Early Using Free Open‑Source GnuCash
I think this is the earliest I’ve ever finished my taxes. BTW if you have bookkeeping chops, you can ditch Intuit products and just use open source GnuCash. It’s free.
Unlock Excel Checkboxes for Instant Dashboard Updates
Excel has checkboxes. Most finance teams have no idea. Here's what they're missing. Not filters. Not dropdowns. Checkboxes. Click a box. Dashboard updates. That's it. Sounds simple because it is. Let me show you two dashboards where this actually matters. First one. Comparison Dashboard. Check...
Imminent Treasury Supply Surge Threatens Auction Failure
This is maybe not this week or even next month, but this is a failed auction waiting to happen. #TreasurySupply
Banks Adopt Crypto but Shun High Stablecoin Yields
Brian Armstrong says that the banks are already integrating crypto and stablecoins Of course they are. It’s the new financial system. They just don’t want to pay you 4 to 5% yield on stablecoins because it hurts their bottom line https://t.co/8Kj5v9xmv7
Sharpe Ratio Misleads: It Masks Fat Tails and Upside
You're being lied to by a number. The Sharpe Ratio looks like risk management. It isn't. It's a single statistic that hides fat tails, punishes upside, and assumes your returns are normally distributed. They aren't. Here's why it breaks — and what professionals use instead:
U.S. Defense Stocks Shine via Buybacks, Not
Don’t worry the U.S. defense base can’t produce missiles but it’s great at the key to this war, buybacks and dividends.
New 5‑Pillar SaaS Metrics Engine Enables AI‑Powered Benchmarking
My 5 Pillar SaaS Metrics framework has been core to helping SaaS & AI founders and students in my Academy. I'm about to release the framework in my next code push to production for my SaaS metrics engine. My framework...
Tokenized Money Threatens Traditional Banking by 2030
🔺 The $2 Trillion Shift: Is Tokenized Money About to Kill Traditional Banking? 💸 By 2030, tokenized money could be a $2T market. But while the tech is moving fast, the global financial map is becoming a "fragmented mess" of rules. 💬...
US Banks Receive $200 Bn Capital Infusion
The $200bn capital boost to US banks. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/Z0naICa1tz
SaaS Valuations Plunge, yet Growth Stays Robust
SaaS valuations have reset — but growth remains intact. Significant multiple compression - Median EV/Sales declined from 15–17x to 4–5x. Median subscription SaaS snapshot 👇 • EV/Sales: 4.7x • NTM Growth: 16.5% • 51 public companies • for SaaS companies (including device / fixed-capacity subscriptions and...
Tokenization Poised for $500M Savings, Banks Lag
Tokenization at a Turning Point in 2026: NASDAQ Eyes $500M Collateral Savings, IBM Urges Banks to Act – But Interoperability Stalls Topics: ↳ IBM: Tokenization at a Turning Point Banks Can’t Afford to Miss in 2026 (But Most Likely Won’t Act) ↳...
Markets Aggregate Opinions with Cash, Revealing Future Expectations
Markets are useful for the same reason polls are useful: not because they’re flawless, but because they aggregate lots of views. The difference is investors back their opinions with cash. Stocks aren’t GDP, but they do reveal what people expect...
Growth Alone Isn't Enough: Prioritize Low Dilution
SBC/Revenue vs NTM growth 👇 High growth ≠ shareholder-friendly $TEAM $FIG → strong growth, but SBC eats a large portion of value The best companies balance both $PLTR $APP $SHOP $ZETA → high growth with controlled dilution Low SBC = real operating leverage $MSFT $FICO $FTNT...
Markets Tighten on Trump Amid Bond, Credit Strain
Markets have been the ultimate constraint on Trump and they're starting to look very iffy, especially where the US bond market (bottom left) and private credit (bottom right) are concerned. If the US escalates the war with Iran, markets will...
Upvest Secures $125M to Upgrade European Banking Infrastructure
Upvest Raises US$125 Million to Modernise European Banking Infrastructure - Fintech Schweiz Digital Finance News - FintechNewsCH https://t.co/OLsvn5pOuF https://t.co/WwYH1vY8PH
Treasury Yields Spike, Curve Uninverts, Signaling Rate Hike
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On. Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front...
Middle East War Expands Threat to Global Supply Chains
This, from Bloomberg, illustrates how the Middle East War threatens a widening set of global supply chains. (On Monday, the FT is scheduled to post my column on a separate global risk that has yet to receive sufficient attention: the likely...
Finance Leaders Worry Lower‑level Teams Still Ignore AI
True, but… I’d be more concerned if the next layers down aren’t using it…VP finance, Controllers, and their teams I know many who haven’t touched any AI yet…
We Overhyped Valuations, AI May Follow Suit
It's easy to make fun of 2021 valuations. But how in the world did we ever think Asana should be at a 60x revenue multiple... Seems like we will look back similarly at many private AI companies 🤔 https://t.co/VK8CqatqTn
10‑Year Yield Climbs to 4.38%, Highest Since July
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
Automate Financial Model Checks to Prevent $2M Mistakes
Your financial model has an error right now. You just haven't found it yet. I know because I've been there. I once spent days building a model for a client. Board meeting. Next 12 months of projections. Felt great about it. Then a...
Political Clout Now Trumps Antitrust in M&A
There is a new meta for merger arbitrageurs, such that traditional antitrust analysis is outweighed by the acquiror's political clout. In particular, if the acquiror employs Mike Davis, their M&A deal is getting done. https://t.co/B0QuYUxxv2
Cut Fees, Buy Back Shares, Avoid Nontraded BDCs
My thoughts on how private credit mangers can rebuild investor confidence in this weekend's @barronsonline: First, they should cut fees: "A lower fee structure would go a long way toward improving managers’ standing with investors". Investors will return to the asset...
Long‑Term Treasuries Outperform Stocks, Contrarian Bond Bet Wins
Long-term Treasuries are up 4.60% this year. The S&P 500 is down 3.24%. The most consensus short trade in finance for three years is quietly winning. Nobody writes bond bull pieces. Nobody is crediting their bond allocation. But TLT has outperformed SPY...
Tokenizing Securities to Modernize Capital Markets
Tokenization and the Future of Securities: Modernizing Our Capital Markets | U.S. House Committee on Financial Services Democrats https://t.co/DIllwrCy1U
Media Overlooks the Growing Syndicated Loan Market
It is as if the media is unaware of the broadly syndicated loan market https://t.co/7VASp4fFsN
US 10‑Yr Yields Rise, 20‑Yr Near 5% Mark
UST 10 Yr Notes went home 4.386 on Friday, yield about 10.3bp's higher. 20 Yr Bonds just 2bp's away from that 5% Handle.
Biotech IPOs Show Strong Avg Gains, Weak Median
Quick Biotech IPO stats for 2026, with six offerings: $AKTS $AGMD $EIKN $SGP $MANE $GENB - Average post-IPO stock performance (offer price to 3/20/26 close): +38%. Without $MANE, avg is negative. - Median post-IPO stock performance: -24% - Total IPO gross proceeds:...
S&P 500 Forward P/E Falls to 20.3
"The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.3. (down 2.8pts from the high... the market multiple hits correction territory)" -Mike Zaccardi
Profitability Remains Sole Unchanged S&P 500 Criterion
"Changes to index criteria are frequently proposed and often adopted. Since 2015, S&P has made over 20 updates to the S&P 500 index methodology, including increasing the minimum seasoning requirement in 2017 and reducing the minimum float requirement in 2019....
One‑click Sync that Works Even While Skydiving
Every expense tool claims one-click sync to QuickBooks. But how many of them can do it in 60 seconds while you’re skydiving lol?
Incumbents and Fintechs Yield Same Profit Margins
Schwab pays ~20 bps on cash. Wealthfront pays 330 bps. Schwab keeps 290 bps. Wealthfront keeps 60 bps. Craziest part -- both have ~36% net income margins. The ops heavy, extractive incumbent model and the tech powered client-aligned model converge at the same...
CFTC Allows FCMs to Use Bitcoin for Margin
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC announces Futures Commission Merchants can accept Bitcoin as margin collateral. https://t.co/oNOW4PB9po
Fed Cuts Spark Long‑term Rate Divergence, Now at 5%
When the Fed cutting cycle started in 2024, 20Y rates quickly moved to 4%. And after 175bp of cuts, the 30Y rates is back up to 5%. The latest wiggle is obviously the Iran effect. But the divergence is arguably 2 years...
Bessent's No‑Term Debt Plan: Mixed Results So Far
So how has the plan by @SecScottBessent to not term out the debt and keep rolling bills worked out?
AI Agents Will Require New Machine‑Centric Financial Rails
Great to be on @SquawkCNBC with @andrewrsorkin. My take: --> AI will drive increased financial activity --> AI agents will eventually transact and exchange value on our behalf This means we'll need new financial rails designed for machines. The future of finance will...
Icon Grids Make Headcount Instantly Understandable
This headcount format gets the fastest "got it" from every board I've presented to. Here's the thing about tables. They work. But nobody remembers them five minutes later. You say "Sales has 72 people." Board nods. Next slide. Already forgotten. But when you...