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Every morning
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Tuesday recap
Williams‑Sonoma reported Q4 2025 comparable sales growth of 3.2% and an operating margin of 20.3%, beating EPS expectations and lifting the stock about 6% after the call. Management said tariff headwinds were mitigated through sourcing and pricing actions, though margin pressure is expected in early 2026. Growth is being driven by fresh product collaborations, a 10% year‑over‑year rise in B2B revenue, and a renewed focus on retail expansion with 20 new stores and 19 repositions. Pottery Barn underperformed but is slated for a brand reset.
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Index arbitrage is a high‑speed trading strategy that captures price differentials between an index’s cash value and its futures or ETF equivalents. By simultaneously buying the cheaper instrument and selling the pricier one, traders lock in a spread that should...
The episode examines how the US‑Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a sharp supply shock for naphtha in Asia, inflating spreads, freight and war‑risk premiums while Europe and the US Gulf Coast remain buffered....
The article proposes a systematic way to compare volatility between the 30‑year ZB Treasury future and the 10‑year ZN Treasury future by juxtaposing each contract’s implied volatility (IV) with its dollar value of a one‑basis‑point move (DV01). ZB’s DV01 of...
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (NASDAQ:CRDO) is testing a key technical level, sitting within 0.75 of its 320‑day moving average’s 20‑day ATR after a 52% pullback from its December high. Quant analyst Rocky White notes that this signal has historically...
The dollar index rose 0.51% after U.S. February producer prices outperformed forecasts, with final‑demand PPI up 0.7% month‑over‑month and 3.4% year‑over‑year and core PPI climbing 3.9% YoY—the strongest gain in 13 months. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged...
A brief update on what we know about the strikes in the Middle East right now: Israel and the US targeted South Pars, a joint Iranian-Qatari gas field. In response, the Iranians have now labeled all energy infrastructure in the region...
Global investors are rapidly shifting capital into emerging markets as a weaker U.S. dollar and a push for diversification away from the United States drive demand. Over the past twelve months the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surged 47%, far...
This is not encouraging if you are bullish. $SPY confirmed below major level of supply $QQQ hanging on by a nose hair (advanced technical analysis term), ready to break lower $SMH carving out a right shoulder of HnS top? $IWM most neutral...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 706 points, or about 1.5%, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell concluded his press conference, sending the index to session lows. The broader market followed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each slipping roughly...
Australia’s bitumen stocks are dwindling as Middle‑East conflicts disrupt supplies from Asian refineries, prompting the Australian Flexible Pavement Association (AFPA) to warn of possible depletion within weeks. Exporters have invoked force‑majeure clauses, cancelling contracts and driving price forecasts above a...
In the US equity market, the energy sector is the only one gaining ground while everything else corrects. Consumer discretionary stocks are at the bottom, and while it’s tempting to conclude that this is because the dystopian “Citrini” scenario...
The heatmap below shows that the oil futures curve remains heavily backwardated, indicating that the energy market believes that the current oil shock is a temporary supply problem that will get fixed. That’s probably correct but the question is how...
Marcus & Millichap’s 2026 Retail Investment Forecast ranks Charlotte and Raleigh as the top two U.S. retail markets. Charlotte posted a 3.5% vacancy rate, driven by big‑box and discount‑store leases, while Raleigh‑Durham held a 3.0% vacancy rate, buoyed by small‑shop...
College is about to cost you $250K… or make you money. 👀 Most people: (X) 529 plans (X) Student loans (X) Draining savings But high-income families are doing something different. They’re using short-term rentals to: → Create cash flow → Reduce W-2 taxable income → Unlock major tax savings →...
$660 is the MVC on $SPY and is/has been a very significant level recently. Worth keeping an eye on as price approaches 👇
Altruist has introduced a low‑minimum direct‑indexing solution that lets advisors offer personalized equity portfolios with a $2,000 entry point and fractional share ownership. The platform provides 44 value‑based filters, enabling clients to exclude sectors, industries, or ESG issues in one...
Most traders jump straight into Nasdaq mini contracts and struggle with risk management and stop loss placement. Trading Micro Nasdaq futures (MNQ) allows for better position sizing, tighter stop losses, and cleaner trade management. Smaller size makes it easier to hold through...
Teams inside major homebuilders, lenders, and operators are using ResiClub research and analysis to inform real decisions—including firms like Meritage Homes, a giant homebuilder ranked No. 554 on the Fortune 1000. That’s exactly what we’re aiming for: clear, data-driven housing market...
The episode reviews the market fallout from Middle East oil facility attacks, the Federal Reserve’s March rate decision, and upcoming policy moves by the Bank of Japan and ECB. ANZ economists discuss how the oil shock exposes Asia’s heavy reliance...
Crude oil prices slipped modestly on Wednesday, with WTI for April delivery down 0.19% to $96.39 a barrel, as traders booked profits after a prior rally. Iraq announced the resumption of oil exports from Kirkuk, limiting shipments to 250,000 barrels...
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has slipped more than 7% year‑to‑date, yet its pivotal AI chip contracts with OpenAI and Meta keep it in focus. The Direxion Daily AMD Bull 2X Shares (AMUU) ETF aims to deliver twice AMD’s daily return,...
U.S. CRUDE OIL imports into the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) surged to the highest for almost six years last week as refiners and traders prepared for a possibly prolonged disruption of exports from the Persian Gulf. Crude imports into the...
$SPX $SPY $QQQ all look ready to touch 200 day SMA for the 1st time in 10 months
The technical setups for shorts here look good too. Strong risk:reward propositions with invalidations nearby. Stop loss at new closing high above $138 on $EWY for example risks $6 to make $20-$40 depending on if it lands at 100 or...
$FXI down 8% since January. China imports the bulk of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged closure doesn't just hit energy costs. It hits the entire growth model. https://t.co/lSosVCvxcm
If 590 zone (200sma daily and recent lows) $QQQ does not hold, natural magnet 575 which is horizontal support and 50sma weekly https://t.co/xmzd9tN8q6
Here's your intermarket cheat sheet All those critical levels in play for risk assets... are likely to be violated if these bases break higher $DXY $HYG https://t.co/uF7nG5qda6
That biotech $TERN that folks were murmuring about days ago getting some bigly OTM call buying in the March $55 strike Think it was this nutty guy https://t.co/YIWYwL0845
That was a hawkish presser. JP discounted the latest NFP print and revisions. Spent time discussing rate hikes even if hypothetical. Highlighted anchored inflation expectation as a prerequisite for further rate cuts.
This Wasn't a Neutral FED Meeting. Here's the Truth. The Fed left rates unchanged. Everyone expected that. But the reaction told a completely different story. Stocks🔻dropped. Gold🔻dropped. Dollar climbed ⬆️ This was not a boring meeting. Not even close $SPY $GLD $DXY https://t.co/28xpHI13Ju
China's manufacturing surplus looks to have taken another leg up. Always a good idea to get confirmation in March given the new year distortions. But Europe looks to be getting squeezed both by China and higher energy prices https://t.co/8EZnqysgKL
In my 20+ years watching markets, this is one of the best central bank press conferences I've ever seen. Its right up there with Draghi and Bernanke's greatest hits. Chair Powell is in rare form.
The S&P 500 is close to giving back all the gains of the last two days and reach another post-Thanksgiving closing low.
vix news highs, SPs new lows in afternoon session, trend for the day has been high to low. Naz PDL in play now. https://t.co/H3SuPKaDSm
$VNRX I used to try to go bell to bell but too much risk now if @EternaLEnVy1991 decides to cover 10% of his position. Nice fader today from the ss vs .35s @IUTraders https://t.co/7hOy9UzMdP
Two-year Treasury yields up to 3.731% for the session and at some of the highest levels of the past three months https://t.co/yjJZJiv8JX
Introducing Annotations. You can now save your thoughts directly on transcripts, slide decks, filings and research reports. Live on the Fiscal terminal, now. https://t.co/JSjmkfcrk3
the significant part is Powell's relatively lukewarm support for looking through energy prices. 5 years of missing their target is clearly bothering them. They are gonna need to see genuine economic weakness to cut again
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.31% Same day last year: 6.78% 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.25% Spread today: 206 bps
USTs pressured lower by Powell's comment that breakeven rate for new jobs is very low
Powell reiterates that the Fed "worries a lot" about inflation expectations becoming unanchored due to the multiple shocks over the last 5 years.
📈 #Volatility is not a dirty word when you know how to use it... Kevin Davitt, Head of @Nasdaq Index Options Content, joins Dan Nathan & @GuyAdami on MRKT Call https://t.co/4z3jGYKguV
Oil companies going to make reasoned judgements about prices before boosting production a ton
Powell embraces the SEP to observe that there was "a meaningful amount of movement" toward fewer cuts and then later leaves the SEP by the side of the road. If there was ever going to be a time to skip...
So mid-year is when we should start to see progress on core inflation. Probably resets “good news” cut clock to like September.
would love to see VIX make new highs in afternoon. So far SP and DOW only ones to take out PDL, though. https://t.co/uw5945fvVN
👀🫡 SHORT here the #NASDAQ with $TQQQ off #VWAP @alphatrends lets go #fed all live @traderTVLIVE https://t.co/evYRVnXky0
Last year markets sold off on less dovish than expected Fed. Today they find relief on less hawkish than expected.
What do you notice about San Francisco compared to Sacramento? These are closed home sales so far this month. https://t.co/BK12H6rwip
