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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
U.S. stock futures were largely flat on Wednesday night after the major indexes posted gains, with the Dow down 0.09%, the S&P 500 down 0.09% and the Nasdaq down 0.1%. Investors focused on Walmart’s upcoming fourth‑quarter earnings, a widely watched barometer of consumer health, while oil prices jumped more than 4% on heightened Iran‑related geopolitical risk. The market was buoyed by strength in the Magnificent Seven tech stocks and financials, but analysts warned that AI‑driven overvaluation could still weigh on mega‑caps. After‑hours trading saw notable moves in DoorDash, Figma and Etsy following mixed earnings reports.
Property‑tech companies secured roughly $1.7 billion in January 2026, a 176 % jump from the same month a year earlier. The average deal size more than doubled to about $34 million, reflecting a shift toward larger, later‑stage rounds. Generative AI is identified as...
The United States now carries a public debt exceeding $38 trillion—about 101% of GDP—and projections show it could reach 120% within a decade. Rising interest obligations threaten to crowd out vital programs, notably Social Security, which the Congressional Budget Office warns...
$NBIS +45% since its February lows. Now nearing the highs of its range...can it break out?
Sphere Entertainment posted FY 2025 revenue of $1.22 billion, an 8% year‑over‑year increase, while narrowing its operating loss to $229.6 million. Adjusted operating profit surged 138% to $261.8 million, reflecting the impact of excluding depreciation, amortization and other non‑cash items. Q4 revenue jumped 28%...
Omnicom reported 2025 revenue of $17.3 billion, a 10% increase helped by the final month of its IPG acquisition and favorable foreign‑exchange effects. Media & Advertising accounted for 58% of revenue and grew 15.7%, while adjusted operating margins held just above...
Is $NOW really at risk of AI disruption? $NOW is down ~52% from ATH. The bear case is simple: ~97% of revenue is seat-based. If AI reduces headcount, seat growth slows. But the real question is whether AI replaces ServiceNow… or makes...
Mark Temnycky, a non‑resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote in Forbes that the European Union will fully phase out Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the end of 2026. The move is framed as a step toward greater energy...
The International Energy Agency has opened formal discussions to grant India full membership, building on its associate status since 2017 and a 2023 request. Ministers from IEA member states agreed in February 2024 to start talks, signaling a push to...
The episode outlines Namibia’s rise to become the world’s third‑largest uranium producer, delivering 7,333 tonnes in 2024 and targeting 8,000‑9,000 tonnes in 2025. It highlights the country’s three flagship mines—Husab, Rössing, and the revived Langer Heinrich—along with their robust infrastructure,...
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis affirmed that the recently concluded India‑EU Free Trade Agreement will unlock fresh trade and investment opportunities between India and the European Union. The leaders discussed expanding cooperation under the India‑Middle East‑Europe...
Trader PhD’s February 2026 acreage survey shows U.S. corn plantings slipping 1.4% to 97.3 million acres, while soybean acres climb 3.5% to 84.2 million. Wheat acreage is projected at a record‑low 42.2 million acres, a 7.3% decline. Sixty‑two percent of growers cite normal crop...
How I use my HSA 1.) Have a high-deductible health plan. I pay $376.65/month (ridiculous) for a plan and my LLC taxed as an S corp reimburses me for this via an accountable plan 2.) Max contribute each year on Jan 1....
🚨 5 Reasons I’m NOT Trading This Friday 🚨 1️⃣ Weekly Target = HIT ✅ My goal is +100 pips per week We banked +132 pips in just 2 days Discipline > Greed Once the target is hit, I go into protection mode 2️⃣ U.S. Supreme...
Maersk announced a significant upsizing of its West India‑US East Coast (MECL) service to add incremental westbound container capacity. The move follows the United States’ reduction of tariffs on Indian‑made goods from 50% to 25%, with a further cut to...
At the JSE SA Trade Connect conference, market leaders warned that volatility is no longer a rare "black swan" but a persistent flock of shocks. Alicia Greenwood highlighted the exchange’s push to fuse disparate data sources, enabling faster interpretation and...
UBS upgraded its outlook on Dana Holding Corp., raising the 12‑month price target after a stronger‑than‑expected margin outlook. The Swiss bank lifted the target to $12.00 from $9.00, implying roughly 33% upside from the current share price. UBS highlighted improved...
Deere & Company posted a Q1 2026 earnings surprise, reporting EPS of $2.42 versus the $2.02 consensus and revenue of $9.61 billion, well above the $7.59 billion forecast. The equipment operations segment drove growth, delivering an 18% jump in net sales to $8.0 billion....
Solactive has opened a market consultation on proposed methodology changes to its CWM Balanced Strategy Index. The firm invites all stakeholders and third parties to review detailed amendment documents and submit comments. Feedback must be received by 5 March 2026, after which...
Nutrien Ltd. reported Q4 2025 earnings that fell short of forecasts, posting EPS of $0.83 versus the expected $0.92 and revenue of $5.34 billion against a $5.38 billion outlook. The miss triggered a 0.87% pre‑market decline in the stock despite a 13% rise...
He made $4B for his old firm and $900M for himself. Then sued to break a noncompete—and launched a hedge fund that gained 20% in year one.
Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni visited Ethiopia to cement Italy’s renewed Africa strategy, highlighting the operational rollout of the Mattei Plan. The plan aims to turn Italy into an energy hub by building pipelines that export gas and hydrogen from...
In a February 2026 Atlantic Council podcast, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer revisited the Trump administration’s aggressive trade agenda, focusing on the looming United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) review. Greer confirmed that a full U.S. withdrawal from the pact remains "on...
Multi‑currency collateral agreements create optionality that requires discounting with a cheapest‑to‑deliver (CTD) curve. While Monte‑Carlo simulation can price this exactly, it is computationally heavy. Researchers propose an analytic approximation that combines the Clark algorithm and Gauss‑Hermite quadrature, delivering near‑Monte‑Carlo accuracy...
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) lowered its overnight repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, marking the ninth cut since August 2024. Inflation remains modest at 2%, comfortably within the 2‑4% target band, while the peso rallied to...
Bond ladder ETFs are emerging as a transparent alternative for retirees seeking steady, inflation‑protected income. The Northern Trust 2045 Inflation‑Linked Distributing Ladder ETF (TIPC) structures a 20‑year ladder of TIPS, delivering annual principal payouts as each rung matures. By evenly...
Janus Henderson has launched a new CLO exchange‑traded fund that targets AA to A‑rated CLO tranches, offering a modestly higher expected return than its existing AAA‑focused CLO ETF. The product is designed specifically for institutional investors seeking greater yield without...
Activist investor Nelson Peltz, through Trian Fund Management, has filed with the SEC stating Wendy’s is significantly undervalued and signaling possible actions, including buying more shares to gain control or divesting his stake. The fast‑food chain’s stock has slumped about...
Fastmarkets announced a proposal to discontinue two Category 3 animal‑fat price assessments – AG‑TLW‑0028 (high‑grade bone fat) and AG‑TLW‑0029 (pure beef tallow) – for DDP Northwest Europe. The move is attributed to insufficient market liquidity for these contracts. A public consultation...
Airbus announced a record 2025, delivering 793 commercial jets, boosting revenue 6% to €73.4 bn and posting €7.1 bn adjusted operating profit. The company closed the year with a €619 bn order book and a backlog of 8,754 aircraft, underscoring robust demand. However,...
Lightkeeper has introduced Beacon, an AI‑enabled feature that lets hedge funds and asset managers ask plain‑English questions about their portfolios. The tool pulls answers from Lightkeeper’s validated, institutional‑grade data rather than unverified sources, preserving transparency and auditability. Beacon connects client...
The episode dissects Yelp’s deteriorating business model, highlighting a sharp slowdown in revenue growth and a recent year‑over‑year decline driven by weaker ad clicks and economic uncertainty. It argues that a toxic sales culture, high‑pressure outbound tactics, and a disgruntled...
STOXX and DWS have launched the Xtrackers Europe Defense Technologies ETF on Nasdaq, tracking the STOXX Europe Total Market Defence Space and Cybersecurity Innovation 50-25 index. The index, which captures companies with revenue and patent exposure to defense, space and...
The Democratic Republic of Congo has placed the rebel‑held Rubaya coltan mine on a shortlist of strategic assets offered to the United States under a new minerals‑cooperation framework. Rubaya, which supplies roughly 15% of the world’s coltan, requires between $50 million...
Truth from @ClydeCommods 👇 The Iran risk premium assumes a deal or a contained strike that leaves flows intact What if Iran stops playing by the “keep oil flowing” rule & targets infrastructure to force political outcomes? That tail risk is higher than...
"If you refer to those Walmart earnings. The CEO saying that tariffs are no longer an issue when it comes to pricing, but rather wages and income…" https://t.co/0OABeT0az6 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #kevinwarsh #economy #schwab https://t.co/VX4my3zpe8
The paper proves that the projected Euler–Maruyama scheme attains Lp‑strong convergence of order one‑half for the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) model. By integrating a projection step with the normalized error framework, the authors broaden the parameter space where the convergence guarantee holds....
“The S&P looks calm… but underneath, it’s churning like crazy.” Great convo with @GinaMartinAdams on concentration risk, price-to-sales extremes, and why 2026 may be a stock picker’s market. 🎙️ Latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast: https://t.co/6P2xtsblvM https://t.co/tohQDT7fRk
Jobless claims update: Another week of low initial claims and stable continuing claims, suggesting no change in the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. https://t.co/umbJshwxL5
Booking Holdings reported a 12% year‑over‑year revenue increase in Q4 2025, reaching $4.3 billion, while Airbnb posted a 9% rise to $2.1 billion. Both companies saw higher gross booking value, but Booking’s net profit margin grew to 8.5% versus Airbnb’s 6.2%. Occupancy rates...
Moontower Thursday Finally got around to writing on this topic... "delta is the only greek" https://t.co/KRPirWhJSY
Long-end breakevens have been under pressure with a brand new 30y TIPS ($9B) up for auction later today. This will be it for the long end though. Rest of the month is front (2s) and belly (5s &...
The article introduces the market implied discount rate (MIDR) as a forward‑looking alternative to the traditional weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Using S&P Capital IQ data on the S&P 500, it shows that MIDR often diverges from WACC, with energy...
Stephen Miran, long viewed as the Fed’s arch dove, tells The Peg that firm labour data and a pickup in goods inflation could justify revising his 2026 dot higher. https://t.co/qevsjpOlwA
Iran risk is unpriceable, writes Rabobank's Joe DeLaura. No strike and oil fades to the low $60s. A strike and $90+ is immediate. What matters isn’t the spike, it’s how long the disruption lasts. #OilMarkets #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/L6wTlG3QZf
Citi’s global real‑estate research team projects higher REIT returns in 2026 than in 2025, with the United States, Europe, Latin America, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines leading the upside. U.S. REITs are expected to deliver 10‑15% total returns, while Europe...
If you were to track the daily net difference between advancing and declining stocks on the NYSE and build a cumulative Advance Decline line, you would see it just hit the highest level in history. https://t.co/Eg6hlzbbe6
Venezuela’s oil “revival” is being wildly oversold. It’s a salvage operation. Rusted pipes, polluted lakes, broken upgraders, and legal risk everywhere. You can’t fix 20 years of decay with a few rigs & a pep talk. https://t.co/tmf2KANGJr #OilMarkets #Venezuela #EnergyReality #Sanctions #crudeoil
The COMESA Competition and Consumer Commission (CCCC) has opened an investigation into Meta Platforms Ireland Ltd for allegedly abusing its dominant position by amending WhatsApp Business Solution Terms in October 2025 to block rival AI chatbot providers. The probe follows...
GomSpace Group AB reported record fourth‑quarter revenue of 145.6 million SEK, a 75% year‑over‑year jump, and delivered its first full‑year of profitable growth in 2025. Total 2025 revenue rose 72% to 441.8 million SEK, while adjusted EBITDA reached 17.5 million SEK and EBIT turned positive at...
