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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
ICE March 2026 cotton futures rose modestly to 62.11 cents per pound, driven primarily by short covering and technical repositioning rather than fresh demand. Export sales and mill buying remained cautious, indicating muted underlying demand despite a relatively firm US dollar. Open interest stayed stable, suggesting no significant new capital inflow, and the market is now testing the 60‑cent psychological floor with resistance around 63‑64 cents. Without a demand catalyst, any further rally will depend on positioning dynamics rather than fundamental tightening.
The episode reviews the latest developments in the Ukraine‑Russia conflict, focusing on the relocation of the third round of peace talks to Geneva. Kyiv cautions against overly optimistic expectations, noting the limited progress in previous rounds and the complex diplomatic...
Private participation in infrastructure across the Global South reached $100 billion in 2024, a 20% rise over the previous five‑year average. The article highlights India’s PPP surge, which drove infrastructure credit to over 15% of bank lending but also triggered an...
SwapsInfo reports a 46.1% jump in interest‑rate‑derivatives (IRD) notional to $536.5 trillion in 2025, with trade count rising 22.9% to 3.3 million. Short‑dated contracts dominate, representing 71.5% of IRD notional, while cleared transactions account for 86.6% of total notional. Swap execution facilities...
The royalist‑conservative Bhumjaithai Party has captured a decisive parliamentary majority, reinforced by the military and judiciary, positioning it to govern Thailand for the next four years. Its victory ends a 26‑year period marked by street protests, coups, and judicial interventions,...
Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trade agenda, saying it marks a decisive break from the Congress era of policy paralysis. He highlighted nine free‑trade agreements signed since 2014 that give India preferential access to 38 developed economies and...
A Finviz‑sourced heatmap reveals today’s capital allocations across U.S. equities, highlighting strong inflows into technology and renewable‑energy stocks while energy and financials lag. The visual shows green‑colored leaders posting double‑digit gains, contrasted with red zones where sectors such as utilities...
Rwanda’s mineral exports jumped 46.2% in 2025, driven by soaring tin, tungsten and tantalum prices and increased mechanised mining. The surge helped narrow the country’s trade deficit from $3 billion to $2.7 billion, with raw tin even achieving a positive balance with...
The episode reviews the week’s Vancouver real‑estate headlines, covering the stalled sale of the 28‑storey 2538 Birch Street tower, Allied Properties REIT’s takeover of the KING Toronto project and its recent equity financing, and a deep dive into Western Canada’s...
Somalia has been granted official authorization to adopt and print the East African Community (EAC) e‑Passport, a key step in its regional integration. The decision was handed to Somalia’s Minister of Internal Security and the Director‑General of Immigration in Dar...
India and the United States announced a trade deal that lowers Indian export tariffs from 25% to 18% and removes the extra 25% levy on Russian crude. In return, New Delhi has pledged to buy $500 billion worth of U.S. goods,...
Fitch downgraded John Fitzgibbon Memorial Hospital in Marshall, Missouri to a “D” rating from “C” and withdrew its issuer and bond ratings after the hospital defaulted on required debt payments. The default concerns principal and interest on 2010 bonds, and...
Is it finally the week $SPY breaks this range? Stuck here since November. Reports scheduled this week: - U.S. Trade Deficit Report (Thu) - GDP (Fri) - Inflation Report (Fri) - Consumer Sentiment (Fri)
Amwell announced 2026 revenue guidance of $195 million to $205 million, down from $249.3 million in 2025, after divesting non‑core assets. The company has consolidated its offerings into a single, technology‑enabled care platform focused on SaaS and third‑party services. Executives said the streamlined...
India's National Highways Authority (NHAI) has been allocated Rs 12,357 crore for FY 2025‑26 to monetize highway assets, falling short of the Rs 15,000 crore budgeted amount. The agency plans to monetize 24 road assets covering 1,472 km, with Maharashtra receiving the highest number of projects....
The African Union’s 2019 African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was built on eight regional economic communities, yet integration progress remains sluggish. A new analysis identifies four core obstacles: lingering colonial dependencies, the predominance of informal cross‑border trade, the tendency...
Legal & General Investment Management will keep its catastrophe‑bond exposure despite recent spread compression. The firm’s portfolio, estimated at a minimum of $400 million, remains in diversified multi‑asset funds while it waits for more attractive entry points. Turner and Dietz note...
Builder confidence for new single‑family homes slipped one point to 36 in February, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Affordability pressures—high price‑to‑income ratios and rising land and construction costs—drove the decline for a second consecutive month. While price‑cutting fell...
Render announced a $100 million financing round that lifts its valuation to $1.5 billion, reflecting the surge in AI‑generated applications. The San‑Francisco startup reports revenue growth exceeding 100 percent and a developer community of more than 4.5 million users. It runs on AWS and...
France’s urea imports surged to 1.15 million tonnes in the July‑December 2025 period, up from 842,000 tonnes a year earlier, as buyers rushed to stock ahead of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). December shipments more than doubled the three‑year monthly...
Airbnb Q4 FY25 letter: "We ended 2025 with over nine million active listings around the world. During Q4 FY25, active listings grew relatively in-line with the YoY increase of Nights and Seats Booked [+10% YoY.]"
In a recent InsuranceAUM interview, Chris Gudmastad, Head of Private Credit, discusses the growing convergence between public and private credit markets. He highlights how blended financing structures are blurring traditional asset class boundaries and reshaping investment opportunities. The conversation underscores...
A member of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF) has secured a contract to ship 5,000 tonnes of basmati rice to a United States buyer. The agreement arrives shortly after the India‑US trade pact lowered tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to...
Housing affordability remains a pressing concern, with 65% of U.S. households unable to afford a median-priced new home in 2026. Elevated mortgage rates amplify the impact of even modest home‑price increases, pushing more families out of the market. The National...
Carlsberg’s Group CEO Jacob Aarup‑Andersen confirmed the company is actively exploring an initial public offering of its Indian business, though no final decision has been made. The move aims to unlock shareholder value as the subsidiary posted high single‑digit volume...
India’s data‑centre market is expanding rapidly, with annual capacity additions of about 0.5 GW. Today, data centres already draw up to 15% of local grid capacity and could consume 30‑35% by 2030. Roughly one‑third of the power comes from renewable PPAs,...
The United Nations Command (UNC) and South Korea are locked in a legal dispute over who can approve access to the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). While the 1953 Armistice assigns entry authority to the UNC commander, Seoul’s National Assembly is...
International Holding Co., the UAE’s largest listed conglomerate, has launched Judan Financial, an AI‑enabled platform that consolidates its financial services assets. Chaired by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, Judan is valued at $27 billion and will manage roughly $237 billion in assets. The...
Spotware has partnered with CFD broker GCI Trading to power its offering with the cTrader platform. The integration brings cTrader’s Traders First™ ethos, ultra‑fast execution and transparent trade lifecycle to GCI’s 24‑year‑old client base. GCI will now appear in the...
U.S. Deputy Secretary Christopher Landau and African Union Chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf announced a Strategic Infrastructure and Investment Working Group to deepen U.S.–AU cooperation on trade‑enabling projects. The initiative marks a shift from bilateral deals toward a continent‑wide partnership, but...
India’s Shahpurkandi Dam is slated for commissioning by March 31, 2026, enabling the diversion of surplus Ravi River flows that previously entered Pakistan. The project will channel this water into irrigation schemes across Jammu’s Kathua and Samba districts and Punjab’s drought‑prone...
$APP Growing 66% With 77% Operating Margin — Yet Stock Is Down 42% YTD AppLovin delivered numbers most software companies can’t even model. Revenue up +66% YoY. Operating margin at 77%. And yet the stock is still down 42% YTD. Valuation argument? Forward P/S around 16x. Forward...
I think I might be the only person in the world who still hates US Treasuries here. $TLT is just another lower high imo until proven wrong.
The episode outlines five ways AI will reshape geopolitical risk in Latin America: massive middle‑class job disruption as AI replaces outsourced service roles; a new extractive dependence on foreign data‑center investments that may boost the economy but keep profits abroad;...
Notable acceleration in the fx securities book of the Chinese state banks (And their reverse repo/ other funding of global financial institutions) in January -- consistent with the $90b monthly increase in the reported fx balance sheet https://t.co/PNDncW2w2s
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn inspections easily beat all trade expectations (though they weren't a weekly record). FYI the previous week's corn volume was hiked significantly. Soy inspections were near the top end of estimates - 57% of the beans were...
Underwriting spreads for municipal bonds rose again in 2025, reaching an average of $4.30 per $1,000, up from $4.23 in 2024. Negotiated‑deal spreads increased to $4.64 while competitive‑deal spreads fell to $1.78. The uptick coincides with record issuance volumes—$586 billion in...
Export inspections for the week ending Feb. 12 (mln bu): #corn 58.8, grain sorghum 9.5, #soybeans 44.2, #wheat 13.8 #oatt
If there was something else to "dig into", I would have. Dollar Up has its implied Correlation Risk today. I'll do what the signal does. It didn't change.
For energy policy making, a key week in Paris as @IEA energy officials gather Feb 18-19 for a biennial ministerial meeting. The IEA’s drift toward net-zero advocacy and overtures to China will be tested as US officials push to a return...
Switzerland is hitting a new all-time high again today as U.S. stocks break down to new 6-month lows relative to European stocks. https://t.co/z6UH4K1Vfo
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
🔬 Research links: the stocks retail investors favor, the impact of IPO timing, and why base rates matter so much. https://t.co/cjmTGAY0wz chart: https://t.co/rvyduDs39u https://t.co/EKv26rorKm
china’s two ai model company minimax and zai have grown 2x in public markets in the last month they’re now $30-35b companies surely that should prompt western labs to go public already
$EURUSD has pulled back from its failed run on 1.20 a few weeks back - aligned to a 38.2% Fib of the 2008 to 2022 bear wave. Meanwhile, net speculative futures positioning has jumped this past week to its heaviest net-long...
New bank capital rules coming which will free up more excess capital at the same time when capital mkts & loan demand are improving. Large cap banks have $175B in excess capital which will go to $250B+ post GSIB...
"The Federal Reserve has cut rates only a handful of times when nominal growth was greater than 8 per cent and most of those instances were in the 1970s." Richard Bernstein @RBAdvisors in the FT https://t.co/vzNnkKmGpY
As the dark shadow of Trump fell over the US power sector & the highly effective IRA, investment in power generation plateaued in 2024. Well-time to create a power bottleneck for AI. More on this in the Chartbook Top Link...
New US deficit and growth projections ""suggest a quiet period ahead for bond vigilantes and others who hand-wring over the unsustainable nature of the US debt and the inevitable market revolt – the Godot for which they have waited impatiently...
As @RayDalio, founder of the world's LARGEST hedge fund told @TuckerCarlson on central bank digital currencies: "There will be no privacy... all transactions will be known... and if you're politically disfavored, you could be shut off." https://t.co/3H4Lcz4ysb
