Seasonal Ceasfire
The Crude Chronicles estimates oil’s fair value at about $80 per barrel, using a marginal‑cost framework that emphasizes rising extraction costs as well‑productivity slows. The analysis highlights two near‑term catalysts: full refinery restarts within 2‑3 months, which should keep crack spreads above pre‑war levels, and potential reductions in Saudi OSPs that may signal increased Arab‑Gulf exports. Seasonal patterns historically favor a bullish spring bias, reinforcing the outlook. Together, these factors suggest a resilient price environment despite the recent cease‑fire easing geopolitical tension.
Sara Blakely — Turning Spanx Into a Billion Dollar Brand
Sara Blakely turned a simple hosiery concept into the billion‑dollar brand Spanx. After a stint selling fax machines, she launched Spanx at 29, reaching $4 million in sales by age 30 and $10 million by 31, bolstered by a QVC partnership. In...
Paid to Wait With a Coupon That Gets Better When Everything Else Gets Worse
Fixed Income Beacon highlights a fixed‑to‑floating subordinated note issued by a consistently profitable regional bank. The security trades at a spread of more than 230 basis points, delivering a yield to maturity above 6.2%, and features an early‑call option that...
Warren Buffett Warns: Stop Buying These 5 Things Immediately
Warren Buffett warns that five common habits erode wealth: carrying high‑interest debt, chasing hype‑driven stocks, investing in products you don’t understand, maintaining over‑diversified low‑conviction portfolios, and pursuing status‑driven purchases. He urges eliminating any debt above roughly 10% interest, buying only...
Cheap Meals Under $5
Preparing meals for under $5 is possible with simple, versatile ingredients. The article outlines 13 budget‑friendly dishes—from egg fried rice to lentil soup and rice‑and‑beans—each requiring minimal cost and basic cooking steps. It emphasizes using leftovers, pantry staples, and seasonal...
War in the Gulf Could Tilt the Cloud Race Toward China
Iranian drone attacks on three AWS data centers in the UAE and Bahrain in March disrupted banking, fintech and ride‑hailing services, marking the first confirmed strike on a hyperscale cloud provider. The incident has intensified calls for multi‑cloud strategies, highlighted...
China Halves Fuel Price Increase for Second time...China Raises Supply Chain Protection to “National Security” issue...Xi Jinping Backs Service Sector...
China reduced its scheduled domestic fuel‑price increase for the second time, limiting gasoline to a 3.85% rise (about $1.23 per litre) and diesel to 4.2% (around $1.20 per litre), a move aimed at tempering inflation amid volatile Middle‑East oil markets....
Dollar Holds Steadier Today as Fragile US-Iran Truce Keeps Traders Guessing
The U.S. dollar held modest gains on Thursday as traders remained cautious amid a fragile U.S.-Iran truce. Risk‑off sentiment tempered the rally, leaving European equity indices slightly lower and the DAX still riding yesterday’s 5% surge. In the FX market,...
NCGA Survey Reveals Growing Fertilizer Cost and Supply Concerns Among U.S. Corn Farmers
The National Corn Growers Association’s March 2026 surveys reveal U.S. corn farmers are facing unprecedented fertilizer affordability challenges. Farmers now require 185 bushels of corn to buy a ton of urea, the highest ratio on record, while concerns about 2027...
China Real Estate Crisis: Millions Face Negative Equity
China’s property slump is deepening as falling home prices push mortgages into negative equity. Roughly 700,000 loans are already underwater, and analysts project up to 3.3 million by next year, affecting half of new‑home purchases. Banks are quietly restructuring debt—extending terms...
Gold ETF Outflows Hit Record in March as Asian Buying Offsets Western Selling
Gold-backed exchange‑traded funds recorded a historic $11.8 bn outflow in March, equivalent to roughly 85 tonnes of physical gold, as North American investors fled the market. The sell‑off ended nine months of net inflows, with SPDR Gold Shares shedding $8.4 bn and...
Gold Exports Fetch US$278.5 Million in February as Deliveries Surge
Zimbabwe’s gold export earnings jumped to US$278.5 million in February 2026, a 138% increase over the same month a year earlier. The surge was driven by a sharp rise in deliveries from the artisanal and small‑scale mining (ASM) sector, which supplied...
A Macro Explanation of High US Stock Valuations
The article links soaring U.S. stock valuations to a long‑term decline in labor’s share of GDP, which has shifted profit generation toward capital and free cash flow. Researchers Atkeson et al. show that as employee compensation fell, more cash remained...
Thu 9 Apr 2026 - Paul Scott's Small/Mid Cap Value Report
Paul Scott’s latest Small/Mid‑Cap Value Report highlights a shortlist of ten under‑the‑radar equities, including MEGP, FSG, AVCT, GHH, DEVO, KETL, IGP, CLBS, VANL and RGG, with deeper coverage on KOO, CLBS, FSG and MEGP. The newsletter, released on April 9 2026, positions...
Will US Diesel Inventories Decline to Record Low?
U.S. diesel inventories slipped by 2.1 million barrels in the latest weekly report, pushing total stocks to roughly 5.5 million barrels, the lowest level in over a decade. Refinery utilization climbed to 94%, indicating strong production capacity that is unable...
Ackman’s $64 Billion Activist Play:
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square is reportedly orchestrating a $64 billion activist‑driven restructuring of a major entertainment conglomerate, potentially the largest such play in modern markets. Unlike his traditional short‑term governance pushes, the plan focuses on long‑duration value reconstruction, echoing Warren Buffett’s...
Hedge Funds Hit by “Heaviest Drawdown” In 4 Years:
April 2026 saw hedge funds endure their steepest monthly drawdown since 2022, with an average loss of about 7.8% across the industry. The decline was driven by a perfect storm of heightened geopolitical tensions, multi‑year high currency volatility, and persistent...
As Yogi Said: 'It Ain't Over Till It's Over' & 'It's Déjà Vu All Over Again'
Negotiators from the United States and Iran are set to meet in Islamabad to discuss a cease‑fire, after weeks of aerial strikes that failed to topple Tehran’s regime. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still commands the Strait of Hormuz, keeping...
Mid-Week Macro (4/8/2026)
Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire, prompting the S&P 500 to close above 6,700, though analysts warn the optimism may be premature. Gold slipped to $4,727, roughly 16% below its recent all‑time high, while silver sits near $74, down 38% from...
Is the Australian Dollar Entering a Super Cycle?
Australian dollar momentum has surged as the US Dollar Index stalls, while the Chinese yuan continues its upward trajectory. Commodity markets have shifted, with oil prices plunging and gold prices rallying, creating a backdrop for a potential AUD super‑cycle. Analyst...
Can the Short Squeeze Stick?
The recent short squeeze accelerated rapidly, catching many positions and flipping market flows, which drove the price sharply higher. Forced buying and heightened volatility turned what initially appeared a fragile rally into a more supported move. Analyst David Llewellyn‑Smith notes...
No Aussie Gas and Power Shock
Australia’s east‑coast gas export cartel is keeping domestic gas prices anchored at roughly $10 AU per gigajoule (about $6.6 USD), despite a sharp rise in Asian spot prices that hover around $30 AU per GJ. Weather patterns and a slowing Australian economy are...
Australia’s Housing Pipeline Bulges Amid Supply Bottlenecks
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that dwelling commencements fell short of the National Housing Accord’s five‑year goal. In Q4 2025, 53,567 homes began construction, an 11% deficit against the 60,000 quarterly pace needed. For the full year, 196,118 starts were...
Pzena: Value Vs. Value-Light – Why Investors Are Leaving Returns on the Table
Pzena Asset Management warns that many investors claim to follow value investing but actually employ “value‑light” strategies that skip the cheapest stocks. The firm shows that this dilution drags long‑term returns and misrepresents risk, as passive value indices often contain...
Cliff Sosin’s Portfolio Revealed & His High-Conviction Bet
Cliff Sosin’s CAS Investment Partners disclosed a $2.34 billion equity portfolio that is overwhelmingly weighted toward Carvana, which alone represents roughly 83% of assets. The remaining 17% is split between Hilton Grand Vacations, Capital One and two micro‑positions, reflecting an ultra‑concentrated,...
Asian Marco Initial Thoughts: Ceasefire Already in Question. Expect Markets to Still Move on Headlines, Little Asian Data Today but...
A US‑Iran ceasefire was announced, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and allowing more than 800 vessels to seek passage. Global equities rallied, and the CME FedWatch tool lifted the probability of a year‑end Fed rate cut to roughly 43%. Shipping...
![Why Physicians Pay More in Taxes and How to Reclaim Your Income [PODCAST]](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://kevinmd.com/wp-content/uploads/65a06f47-06d1-44f6-b074-deb9a2d19a25.jpeg)
Why Physicians Pay More in Taxes and How to Reclaim Your Income [PODCAST]
Physician earnings surge after residency, but many doctors face unexpectedly high tax bills due to progressive rates, payroll taxes, and under‑withholding. Tax specialist Logan Foltz explains that most physicians lack basic tax literacy, especially when transitioning from W‑2 resident salaries...
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Thursday 9 April 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
US President Donald Trump announced a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran, contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The truce sent Brent crude down 15% to $92.97, its steepest fall in six years, and pulled WTI lower as well. Japan reported...
Gold & Silver Explode Higher On Ceasefire News, Then Decline As Ceasefire's Broken After Just 1 Day...
Gold and silver futures surged after reports of a US‑Iran cease‑fire, with gold touching $4,886 per ounce and silver $77.78 per ounce. Within an hour the cease‑fire was declared broken, prompting a rapid sell‑off that left gold near $4,751 and...
THE $3,250 MARGIN: How Gold Miners Are Quietly Executing the Best Financial Quarter on Record & Why the Market's Geopolitical...
Gold miners are set to deliver their most profitable quarter ever in Q1 2026, with an average realized price of $4,950 per ounce—$825 above the previous quarter and a 74% year‑over‑year jump. After all‑in sustaining costs (AISC) of roughly $1,700 per...
Daily Bulletin...
The United States announced a 14‑day ceasefire with Iran, prompting Trump to threaten 50% tariffs on any country that supplies Tehran with weapons. The ceasefire sent oil prices tumbling more than 16%, easing inflation pressures. Meanwhile, the Department of Homeland...
Ontario’s HST Rebate Is Driving New Home Prices Higher Without Sales
Ontario expanded its Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) rebate, removing the 13% tax on new homes up to CAD $1 million (≈ US $740k) and offering a flat CAD $130,000 (≈ US $96k) credit for units up to CAD $1.5 million. Builders quickly incorporated the rebate into purchase prices, with...
The Closer – Ceasefire Confusion, Valuations, Fed – 4/8/26
U.S. equity valuations have slid sharply since their late‑October 2025 peak, reflecting tighter monetary conditions and lingering geopolitical risk. The Federal Reserve’s latest minutes adopted a more hawkish tone than recent meetings, hinting at possible further rate hikes. Despite the...
5 Best Gold Mining Companies to Buy With High Upside Potential
Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX) is highlighted as a top gold mining pick, with analysts estimating a 40.1% upside. The company is ramping up its Greenstone mine in Ontario to a 27,000‑tonne‑per‑day milling capacity, while the Valentine project in Newfoundland aims...
Prediction Markets on Trump Credibility Re: Reopening the Strait
Kalshi’s prediction market shows investors assign a low probability to former President Donald Trump’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened soon. The market price reflects skepticism, pricing full reopening at under 20% likelihood. Meanwhile, December 2026...
Leidos Holdings (LDOS) Sees Big Boost From Entrust Purchase
Leidos Holdings completed its $2.4 billion acquisition of Entrust Solutions on March 30, adding more than 3,100 engineers and doubling its presence in the energy‑infrastructure market. The deal expands Leidos’ utility customer base across 40 North American sites and broadens its capabilities...
How Business Owners Build Wealth Outside Their Companies
Entrepreneurs often tie most of their net worth to their businesses, creating concentration risk. The article advises owners to treat personal distributions as a fixed expense, typically 20‑30% of net profit, and to consistently move that money into diversified, uncorrelated...
What the Iran Conflict Means for Gas Prices, Clean Energy, and the Climate
U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran have forced Iran to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting global oil supply by more than 10% and pushing crude prices up $40 per barrel. U.S. gasoline prices have risen above $4...
Why China Might Have Pressed Iran To Compromise With The US
In late 2025, President Trump warned that if Iran did not accept a cease‑fire, the United States would target oil infrastructure, potentially cutting half of the seaborne oil that fuels China. Three unnamed Iranian officials told the New York Times...
Top Strategies for Foreign Investment in Singapore (2026)
Singapore’s inbound foreign direct investment surged to $143.4 billion in 2024, a 6.1% year‑on‑year rise, reaffirming its status as a top‑ranked global business hub. The city‑state maintains a 17% headline corporate income tax rate, with startup exemptions and a network of...
The Iran Conflict: Out-of-Sample Evidence for Global Energy Diversification
The Iran‑driven closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sharply disrupted global oil and LNG flows, exposing the limits of region‑centric benchmarks. Murban crude surged to about $50 a barrel, creating a historic $48 spread versus WTI, while European gas...
Mortgage Rates Only Slightly Lower After Ceasefire News
Mortgage rates edged lower following the two‑week Iran ceasefire, but the decline was modest. The average 30‑year fixed rate slipped to 6.40%, just 0.01 percentage points beneath the April 2 low. Early afternoon optimism lifted bond prices, yet the rally was...
📈 Profits Locked In as the Rally Accelerates
The Options Oracle highlighted a strong market rally that enabled the author to lock in gains by closing cash‑secured puts and writing covered calls at optimal strikes. Over the past week several CSP positions were exited, with two more positioned...
The Next Sector To Collapse?
The private credit sector, once touted as a stable, yield‑focused alternative to traditional bonds, is now confronting a wave of redemption requests and asset‑valuation challenges. In March and April 2026, several large funds—including Apollo, Ares, Barings, and Blue Owl—capped or...
Some U.S. Offices Are Selling for 90% Less
U.S. office buildings are changing hands at unprecedented discounts, with some sales fetching less than 10% of their pre‑pandemic valuations. A 485,000‑sq‑ft Chicago tower sold for $4 million, down from $68 million a decade ago, while Denver’s Energy Center changed hands for...
Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Delta Air Lines reported a record first‑quarter 2026 revenue of $14.2 billion, up 9.4% year‑over‑year, and earnings per share of $0.64. The airline faced a sharp fuel price surge that added roughly $2 billion in extra costs, prompting a strategic reduction of...
At The Money: Seeking Uncorrelated Returns
The At The Money podcast featured Andrew Beer, founder of Dynamic Beta Investments, promoting the DBMF ETF that replicates managed‑futures strategies. Managed futures, which trade futures on commodities, currencies and rates, have historically delivered returns uncorrelated with stocks and bonds, even posting...
Grid Trading Strategies: A Systematic Approach for Fund Managers
Grid trading builds a lattice of buy and sell orders at preset price intervals, letting positions profit from ordinary market oscillations without forecasting direction. The approach shines in sideways or range‑bound markets, where traditional trend‑following models often stall. Fund managers...
🎯Take Profit and Trade Managment Alert
A trader leveraged today’s market rally to lock in gains on a cash‑secured put for Rocket Lab (RKLB) and to write a covered call on Cipher Digital (CIFR) shares. The RKLB put, opened on April 17 at a $60 strike,...
Where Is Money Flowing Today?
A Finviz‑sourced heat map released today visualizes where investors are allocating capital across U.S. equities. The graphic shows strong net inflows into large‑cap technology, especially AI‑focused chip makers, while energy stocks register notable outflows as oil prices dip. Financials benefit...