Volatility Risk Premium and Clustering: Intraday vs Overnight Dynamics
Recent academic work separates the variance risk premium (VRP) into overnight and intraday components, revealing that the overall negative VRP documented in prior literature is driven almost entirely by the overnight period. Overnight VRP remains significantly negative and predicts longer‑term (6‑12‑month) market returns, while intraday VRP is often positive, statistically insignificant, and offers short‑term (1‑3‑month) predictive power. A parallel study of volatility clustering across 15 equity markets finds clustering to be universally present but markedly stronger in overnight returns, with only weak cross‑period interactions. Together, these findings underscore the need to treat trading and non‑trading windows as distinct risk regimes.
Jeremy Grantham’s Latest Market Outlook: Valuations, Risk and Opportunity
Jeremy Grantham, co‑founder of GMO, emphasized that valuation remains the decisive factor in investing, even when market momentum appears unstoppable. In a recent Master Investor Podcast interview, he urged investors to exit clearly overpriced stocks and concentrate on assets with...
Smart Money Is Buying Baxter International Inc. (BAX)
Institutional investors are rapidly adding to Baxter International (BAX) after the company’s restructuring and debt‑reduction plan showed early signs of success. Pzena Investment Management alone bought 12.6 million shares, worth about $1.34 billion, while Greenhaven Associates added 4.4 million shares. Quantitative and macro‑focused...
Is the Market or Trump the Crazier?
The latest market chatter pits a wildly volatile tech sector against former President Donald Trump’s erratic public statements. Tech stocks have surged and slumped on thin fundamentals, with AI‑driven valuations soaring despite mixed earnings. Simultaneously, Trump’s unpredictable commentary on policy...
Magna Mining Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results
Magna Mining Inc. posted Q4 2025 results showing a positive cash margin of C$3.3 million (≈US$2.4 million) at its McCreedy West mine and record quarterly output of 5.0 million copper‑equivalent pounds. Full‑year 2025 production reached 11.5 million CuEq lbs with cash costs of US$3.72 per lb and...
Metro Vancouver Secured $357M In DCC Revenue In 2025, Volatility Expected In 2026
Metro Vancouver’s development cost charges (DCC) generated $357 million CAD (~$263 million USD) in 2025, up from $177 million CAD (~$131 million USD) in 2024. Seventy‑seven percent of the revenue was collected in the first half of the year as developers rushed to lock...
Jet Fuel Shipments Tank; Global Supply In-Transit Plunges 60%
Global jet and kerosene fuel volumes in transit by tanker have fallen 60% since March 1, 2026, with European‑bound shipments plunging 80%, according to Kpler data. The drop reflects tighter refinery output and shifting demand patterns. Industries that rely on just‑in‑time delivery...
Pareto Pure Alpha Portfolios — April 2026 #2
Pareto Investor released its April 2026 performance update, showing all four Pure Alpha portfolios delivering positive returns despite heightened geopolitical tension and an oil price above $90 per barrel. The Momentum strategy posted a standout 21% year‑to‑date gain and a...
Xi Wants Strait of Hormuz Opened; NDRC Head on Security and Development; Cake Order Leads to Huge Fines; Solar Industry...
President Xi Jinping, in a call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, urged an immediate ceasefire and emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open for normal passage. The Chinese readout framed the strait’s uninterrupted flow as serving...
Treasury Sec Paulson: US Needs Emergency "Break The Glass Plan" Ready To Deal With Dumped Treasuries & Spiking Interest Rates
Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned that the United States needs an emergency “break‑the‑glass” plan to address a possible flood of Treasury sales and rapidly rising interest rates. He linked the threat to a potential erosion of the petrodollar system...
Aizenman, Desbordes and Saadaoui: Quantifying Trade Destruction From Bombs & Bullets Vs. Taxes and Sanctions
Researchers Aizenman, Desbordes and Saadaoui present a new monthly bilateral conflict index built from calibrated GDELT event data. The decomposition isolates four layers—kinetic fighting, military posture, trade‑context hostility, and baseline diplomacy—and shows that only kinetic conflict and trade‑related hostility significantly...
MAJOR BANKS PREDICT SILVER PRICE EXPLOSION: The Sentiment Reset, the Unsolvable Deficit, the Byproduct Trap, the Historic Demand Stack, &...
Silver has settled into a tight $70‑$80 range, creating a solid technical base after a parabolic rally. The sideways action reset market sentiment, flushing out speculative hands and leaving a coiled chart ready for a breakout. Physical fundamentals are tightening,...
Canadian Housing Starts Fall As Vancouver Slumps, Toronto Still Lags
Canada’s new housing starts slipped in March, with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reporting a 6% decline to 235,852 units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis. Despite the overall drop, Montreal’s starts surged 128% and Toronto’s rose 33%,...
Neeleman Might Want to Assess Breeze's Balance Sheet Too - Only It Hasn't Been Audited
Breeze Airways, founded by serial airline entrepreneur David Neeleman, continues to operate without an audited balance sheet, leaving its true debt load opaque. The carrier relies heavily on federal subsidies, EAS and MRG payments, and airport grants to fund rapid...
Superior Investments — Munger Monday #50
Charlie Munger’s investment philosophy emphasizes buying great businesses rather than cheap stocks, a shift that reshaped Berkshire Hathaway’s approach after the 1972 See’s Candies acquisition. Berkshire paid $25 million—about three times the company’s book value—to secure a brand with enduring loyalty...
Tom Hayes – Fox Business Appearance – Charles Payne – 4/20/2026
On April 20, 2026, Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital, joined Charles Payne on Fox Business for a market‑outlook interview. Hayes outlined the firm’s growth strategy, emphasizing technology and consumer investments while cautioning about rising interest rates. The segment...
US Gold Corp (NASDAQ:USAU) – $1.4B NPV at Spot, Fully Permitted, Major Upside
U.S. Gold Corp. released a definitive feasibility study for its CK Gold project in Wyoming, showing an after‑tax NPV of $635 million and a 27% IRR at a $3,250/oz gold price. At current spot prices near $4,500/oz, the NPV jumps to...
Save Up To $60 On YouTube TV With New Amex Offer
American Express is rolling out a new Amex Offer for YouTube TV that grants eligible cardholders a $20 statement credit for each qualifying subscription purchase of $49.99 or more, up to three credits for a total of $60. The offer...
Strait Of Hormuz Will Cause "Ripple Effects" For The Whole World
The Iran‑Israel war that began on Feb. 28 has slashed ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz from roughly 130 vessels a day to fewer than five, choking a chokepoint that moves 20‑30% of global oil, helium, and fertilizer inputs. Asian...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Grain futures rallied on Monday, with wheat leading the charge as drought concerns in the U.S. Plains and reports of field abandonment tightened supplies. Corn followed wheat’s upward trend, buoyed by the same weather worries, while soybeans lagged due to...
Mega-IPOs and Index Fund Mechanics: Much Ado About Nothing?
Index providers are tweaking rules to let large IPOs enter major US indexes faster, prompting worries as mega‑IPOs such as SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and Stripe loom. The authors calculate that even a $280 billion IPO wave would represent only about 0.4%...
Europe Could Run Out of Jet Fuel in Six Weeks
The International Energy Agency warns that Europe could exhaust its jet‑fuel supplies within six weeks as the Iran‑Houthi conflict tightens the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 75% of the continent’s net oil imports come from the Middle East, and the disruption...
Daily Energy Report
EU LNG imports surged to a record 10.17 million tons in March 2026, a 10% month‑on‑month increase. The United States dominated the supply mix, providing 55.7% of all EU LNG cargoes, while Russia’s share slipped to 17.9% ahead of a planned ban....
Rio Tinto Trying to Meet U.S. Aluminum Demand as Middle East War Roils Supply Chains – by Nicolas Van Praet...
Rio Tinto is ramping up production at its six Canadian aluminum smelters to satisfy rising U.S. demand as the Israel‑Iran conflict drives global aluminum prices higher. The Saguenay, Quebec facilities and the Kitimat, B.C. plant are already near full capacity,...
Iran War’s Sulfurous Fallout Spreads to Copper and Nickel – by Andy Home (Reuters – April 17, 2026)
The Iran‑Israel conflict has choked sulfur flow from the Gulf after the Strait of Hormuz closed on Feb. 28, triggering a global sulfur squeeze. Sulfuric acid, essential for solvent‑extraction copper and HPAL nickel processes, is now scarce as China, the world’s...
The Mineral Imperative, Trump, and The Art of the Deal – by Amanda Van Dyke (Substack – April 19, 2026)
Amanda van Dyke argues that while the United States has long relied on China for critical minerals, a new wave of legislation is reshaping the "mineral imperative" and strengthening domestic supply chains. Recent policies, including the Critical Minerals Act, aim...
Two Things: Breadth And Revisions
Analysts’ bottom‑up EPS forecasts for the S&P 500 have risen this year, but the gains are driven almost entirely by upward revisions in Energy and Technology stocks. The breadth of those revisions is exceptionally narrow, the weakest since the late‑1990s dot‑com...
IBD 50 Growth Index (Top 30 Weights) Earnings Estimates
The IBD 50 Growth Index’s top 30 weighted stocks saw a wave of upward earnings revisions in the past 60 days. Twenty‑three symbols were upgraded for 2026 forecasts versus five downgraded, with the remainder unchanged, yielding a 23:5 up‑down ratio. Cumulative earnings...
Monday Afternoon News Updates: Negotiations or War? — 4/20/26
The post outlines a rapid escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, noting U.S. military and civilian aircraft landing at Pakistan’s Nur Khan Air Base and Iran’s refusal to resume negotiations until Washington lifts its blockade. President Trump signaled he might consider pausing...
Tesla Q1: Guidance Is More Important Than Results
Tesla’s Q1 2026 earnings are expected to deliver adjusted EPS of $0.33, aligning with consensus, but the company projects a cash‑burn of $1.96 billion, markedly higher than analysts anticipate. Full‑year guidance has been trimmed, with revenue now forecast to fall 6%...
Debbie App: Can This App Really Help You Pay Off Debt Faster?
Debbie is a behavior‑focused debt‑payoff app that rewards users for making consistent payments, turning progress into tangible incentives such as cash or gift cards. After linking credit cards, student loans, or other debts, the platform creates a realistic, habit‑driven payoff...
Jambaar Capital Invests in Trashcoin
Jambaar Capital announced an investment in Trashcoin, a Nigerian digital waste‑management platform that rewards users with credits for recyclable material. The credits are stored in a digital wallet and can be exchanged for cash or used to pay utilities, health...
10 Tips to Get the Best Deals on Used Furniture
The article outlines ten practical strategies for securing the best deals on used furniture, emphasizing the importance of planning, thorough inspection, and flexibility in style choices. It highlights cost‑saving opportunities through minor repairs, upholstery updates, and sourcing from hotel liquidators...
Why Rates on Ultra-Long Gov’t Bonds Hit Record Levels
Japan’s 30‑ and 40‑year government bonds surged to record yields earlier this year, breaching the 2% threshold for the first time in decades. The move coincides with the Bank of Japan’s pending decision on whether to lift the overnight policy...
🎯 Covered Call Trade Management Alert For $HIMS
Trader Edward Corona reports that his covered calls on Hims & Hers (HIMS) expired worthless, allowing him to retain the full premium. With the stock posting another strong green day, he is re‑entering the wheel by selling a new call...
If Your Income Feels Stuck, Read This Before You Do Anything Else
The post argues that women entrepreneurs often feel their income is stuck not because of lacking tactics, but due to deep‑seated beliefs about money and success. It explains how the brain’s safety‑seeking wiring keeps business owners operating within familiar, low‑earning...
Seasonality in American Housing
Redfin’s research shows that seasonal swings in new home listings vary sharply across U.S. metros. Warm‑weather regions like Florida, Phoenix and Las Vegas experience modest listing fluctuations, while colder areas and high‑demand markets such as San Francisco, Boston and Seattle see...
💡Trade Idea for Monday, April 20, 2026
A trader recommends a short‑dated put on a stock that’s trending higher but has pulled back, offering a clean entry before upcoming earnings. The position is placed well below the current price, targeting premium collection with a 73% probability of...
Adviser Links: Shadow Advisers
Charles Schwab is rolling out a $5 block‑trade fee and AI‑driven client agents in June, while expanding its Pledged Asset Line lending to 45 RIAs. Wealth.com announced a $65 million Series B round led by Schwab, and OpenAI acquired Hiro Finance to...
Middle East Conflict Revives Concerns Over Fertilizer Dependence in the U.S. and Brazil
Recent hostilities in the Middle East have restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for roughly 30% of global fertilizer shipments. The United States, which supplies about 60% of its own fertilizer, still relies on imports for 95%...
MB520: The Wealth Leaks Costing You Thousands Every Year (And Why Your Advisors Miss Them) – With Andrew Majd
In a recent interview, Andrew Majd of Dew Wealth Management outlines a three‑pillar wealth framework—protect, grow, and manage—highlighting that many high‑income individuals unknowingly leave costly gaps in their financial plans. He stresses that missing insurance, inadequate estate structures, and limited...
What Happened To The “Shut Down Fannie And Freddie” Movement? (Both Fannie And Freddie Are GROWING Their Retained Portfolios)
The retained portfolios of government‑sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, once on a steady decline, have begun expanding sharply since late 2025. Calls to privatize the GSEs and reduce these balances to zero resurfaced after the 2024 Trump election and a...
Best High-Yield Savings Rates for April 20, 2026: Up to 5%
High‑yield savings accounts are still delivering double‑digit APYs, with Varo and Consumers Credit Union topping out at 5.00% as of April 20, 2026. The rates represent a modest pullback after the first major dip of the year, yet they remain...
What to Do After Losing Money on a Real Estate Investment
The article guides investors who have lost money in a passive real‑estate syndication through a practical recovery roadmap. It first urges investors to determine whether the asset is merely distressed or a total loss, as this drives tax treatment and...
New Stock Records Are Justified. But Don’t Read The Fine Print
The S&P 500’s consensus earnings‑per‑share estimates for 2026‑27 rose about 3% during the Iran‑related oil shock, pushing the index to record highs while its forward P/E fell roughly 5% from January levels. Goldman’s Ben Snider notes that the upward revisions are...
Peace Talks in Limbo Over US Seizure of Iranian Cargo Vessel
U.S. forces seized an Iranian cargo ship on Monday, accusing it of breaching a naval blockade, prompting Tehran to reject participation in the next round of peace talks in Islamabad. The incident has revived accusations that the cease‑fire between the...
How India Became the World's Most Prolific IPO Market
India dominated the global IPO scene in 2025, delivering 367 new listings that represented 28.4% of worldwide deal count, outpacing the US, China and Hong Kong. Decades of reforms beginning in 1991 transformed the market, first by attracting foreign institutional...
Psychedelics Go Mainstream
President Donald Trump issued an executive order to speed up research and access to psychedelic therapies, allocating $50 million in federal funding and instructing regulators to dismantle long‑standing barriers. The move validates a growing investment thesis that the psychedelic sector will...
Blue Owl to Acquire Sila Realty Trust in a $2.4 Billion Cash Deal
Blue Owl Capital announced a definitive agreement to acquire Sila Realty Trust for $2.4 billion in cash, pricing the transaction at $30.38 per share, a 19% premium to the prior close. The acquisition values Sila at 11.89 times its funds from...
Military Metals Advances World's 3rd Largest Antimony Project
Military Metals Corp announced an NI 43‑101 inferred resource of 67,000 tonnes of antimony at 1.02% grade, accompanied by 220,000 ounces of gold, at its Trojárová project in western Slovakia – the world’s third‑largest primary antimony deposit. The company plans a pre‑feasibility...