AAII Bullish Sentiment Hits 7‑week Low, Bears Surge
AAII bulls have been lower than the week before for a record tying 7 weeks in a row. Good chance this continues next week. Lowest bulls since September and highest bears since May. https://t.co/rUf45a3UYv
Scanner Caught AXTI Momentum Weeks Before Move
Why AXTI? Our scanner flagged momentum WEEKS before the move. 🔎📈 Volume spike + tightening range + multi-timeframe confirmation = setup we trust. We got in early, managed risk, and let the trend run. Want the scan rules? Drop a comment or...
Core Oil Earnings Track Oil Price Fluctuations
Bichler and Nizan’s latest: How the relative earnings of the core oil companies vary with the oil price. Featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/rSQKknEmX7
All Weather Portfolio Beats Expected Returns, Drawdown On Target
All Weather portfolio update. Current drawdown -8.35% which is within the expected return/risk profile. CAGR since release running at +24.2%, which is above the expected return profile. #next1000trades https://t.co/Bf8eenZ9Am
Put Premiums Deliver 40% Annual Returns
Some thoughts today on the week ahead in the market. Meanwhile, one of the things I didn't get to mention is that elevated premium on SLB and WFRD puts is creating 3–4% monthly yield, or close to annualized 40% returns,...
Oil Risks Surge as Spot Prices Rise, Volatility Falls
Oil riskies firmed a lot to the put and today spot up, vol down day https://t.co/yyPo6cUfXq
Up 1000bps YTD vs SPX, Ready for Longs and Shorts
Welcome to those joined https://t.co/zHQ4Za0hoi today using the discount “hft”. We are in a good position up YTD 1000bps vs $SPX to maneuver with both longs and shorts
S&P 500 Hits Bottom 15 Days After Geopolitical Shock
Historically, the S&P 500 bottoms 15 trading days after a geopolitical event begins DB. @augurinfinity @soberlook https://t.co/j2yKbwkAig https://t.co/9G1EyxjbxR
Oil Prices Surge Amid Fourth Week of Iran Conflict
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude rose in further fits and starts as the Iran War stretches into its 4th week and belligerents escalate to attacks on upstream infrastructure that have already wrought durable supply losses. Summary below, link...
2‑Year Treasury Yields Surge to Highest Since July
Yields on the two-year Treasury note are up 0.516 pp since Feb. 27, the day before strikes on Iran, to 3.893%. That’s the highest close since July. The gain over the last three weeks is the largest since May 2023 (the...
USD/CHF Bulls Stalled at Critical Resistance Level
Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Bulls Rejected at Key Resistance https://t.co/rLrumlAN5T $USDCHF Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/pcvuoorqWD
S&P up 35% From April Low; ETFs Post Strong Gains
The S&P 500 remains +35% from its April low... the Gain from 52wk low heat map... In the last year: $SPY +16.4% $QQQ +22.1% $RSP +11.0% $IWM +19.4% $VEU +20.6% https://t.co/tSe8pBORDA
SPX Downtrend Likely Extends to August Low
$SPX - Time wise we're still in the timeframe for an 80 trading day low, but in my opinion the weekly close below the 200 day MA and breakdown of the November low has invalidated this cycle. The downtrend is...
Dow Breaks Technical Floor, Catching Fundamental Traders' Attention
Here's my video of what I am watching in the markets over the coming week. Dow Clears A Technical Floor Even Fundamental Traders Will Talk About https://t.co/m5hFw9o7xs
Fed Rate Cut Now Expected in October 2027
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
QQQ Expected to Extend Downtrend to April, Target 551
$QQQ - Today's action has changed my expectations for a bottom this week. The bullish outcome was eliminated given the weekly close below the 200 day MA and break of the November low, which means that QQQ made a major...
Urgent Call: Stop Now Before Angry
Assembling a team. We stop this right now, at any cost. Activists gonna find out what the angry 0DTE option mob can do
Energy Sector Hits 21 All‑Time High Records This Year
The S&P 500 energy sector has reached all-time highs 21 times this year. @augurinfinity @soberlook https://t.co/j2yKbwkAig https://t.co/E7GNUI7Pz3
Start Your Day with a Single Powerful Number
Most people start the day with headlines. I start with a number. Because one good number can tell you more than 20 opinions ever will. One chart. One number. One takeaway. Read it in under 2 minutes, before the market opens. It's free... It's...
Global Yield Spike Persists After Consolidation, No Single Cause
yields - what a week(!) as they appear to be resolving higher after consolidating... it's a global phenomenon... not a U.S. thing, or a Canada thing, or a Europe thing... $TNX $TYX 😜 please don't blame Trump, or the Iran war, or...
7.6% S&P Dip Is Typical, Not Alarming
The S&P 500 is now down 7.6% from its January peak. Is that a lot? Not at all. This is right in line with the median correction off an all-time high since the March 2009 low. We see a decline of this amount...
African Jet Fuel Prices Shifting Faster than Flights
In Africa, the cost of jet fuel is changing faster than you can fly https://t.co/39KuWJkWGP
S&P Drops 5.4% YTD, Losses Concentrated in Two Weeks
Markets have turned. S&P down 5.4% YTD — all of that loss in the last two weeks. War premium showing up fast. Watch this space. https://t.co/D3wvQr7z9M
Gas Prices Outpace 2022; Long‑term Real Rates Rise
3w into conflict, gas prices on higher trajectory than in 2022 (Ukraine invasion). WTI 1M/6M spread off peak inversion, so are implied vols for WTI. 2YR inflation expectations on similar trajectory as 2022. LT inflation exp not reacting much...
Treasury ETF Faces Near-Worst 3‑Week Drop Since 2022
$GOVT Treasury ETF down 2.2% last 3 weeks... that's almost its worst plunge since March 2022... which was a historic drop... @stockcharts https://t.co/AR2FifcXyx
Markets Flip to Rate Hikes as US Inflation Spikes
Yup. Market pricing in 2-3 rate hikes for ECB and BoE How many for the Fed?!
XLK Tech ETF Hits Six‑month Low, 12% Drawdown
$XLK tech ETF aims for its lowest close in more than 6 months... look at that gap @stockcharts A 12% drawdown.. https://t.co/WnAoCjYRPP
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Energy Market Collapse
Iran War Puts Global Energy Markets on the Brink of a Worst-Case Scenario | WIRED Quoted here with the always on point @Rory_Johnston https://t.co/mDCdbWwTqc
Patience Required as SPY Pulls Back From ATH
Tier#1 BOS account going in today on close. For those who use this as a barometer, it’s first time since ATH. $spy $650ish is about 7% off $spx highs. $spy highs. Thats the start. I want to be early...
Gold Slides Below $4500, Biggest Weekly Drop Since 1983
GOLD FALLS TO UNDER $4500, SET FOR ITS BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL SINCE 1983. - @FirstSquawk Gold volatility in USD is doing what gold volatility did in 1920s Weimar German Reichsmarks, which makes perfect sense once you understand our present context. Chart...
Markets See Fed Hikes, Hormuz Shock Fuels Inflation Risk
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't...
QQQ's GMMA Shows Sustained Uptrend Since April
This is the GMMA chart of the $QQQ since last April Uptrend = Red over white space, over blue Downtrend = Blue over white space, over red https://t.co/OX8FRHZybi
Fed Cuts Spark Long‑term Rate Divergence, Now at 5%
When the Fed cutting cycle started in 2024, 20Y rates quickly moved to 4%. And after 175bp of cuts, the 30Y rates is back up to 5%. The latest wiggle is obviously the Iran effect. But the divergence is arguably 2 years...
Falling Oil Demand May Trigger Higher Future Prices
Is it reasonable to say that a long-term, structural decline in global oil demand would not necessarily translate into lower prices, and could plausibly turn into significantly higher prices in the future?
S&P 500 Slips Below Recent Lows, Support Vanishes
🚨 S&P 500 breached the October & November 2025 lows. This is a nasty break for bulls heading into the weekend. Support vaporized. Fear ramping. Expect a bounce or deeper pain? Your bias? $SPY $SPX https://t.co/0YEkEMWsD5
Retail Hype Shifts, but Latecomers Still Suffer
While retail mania rotated from Silver $SLV to Korea $EWY, the outcome is likely to be the same. Pain for FOMO latecomers. Artwork courtesy of my boy @CavanXy. https://t.co/8ff8rIpWpd
S&P 500 Faces Fourth Weekly Drop, Rare in 15 Years
The $SPX is on pace for its fourth consecutive week's loss. In the past 15 years, there has only been one period where we have had a slide run longer than 4 weeks (May 2022) https://t.co/trHGzh31pk
SPX Faces Crucial Demand Zone Amid Rapid Macro Shift
US500 ( SPX ) At a crucial daily demand area. We have not seen these levels since late 2025. - Stagflation environment - Elevated OIL - From rate cuts to rate hikes - AI valuation concerns The whole macro narrative has changed within days. I...
Americans Stockpile Low‑Risk, Interest‑Earning Assets
Money-Market Funds & CDs: Americans’ Ballooning Piles of Interest-Earning Low-Risk Investments. They’re investment choices, like bond funds, bonds, etc., not that illusory “cash on the sidelines” https://t.co/lVQU0uXsDh https://t.co/eIxrOAhyxN
Rent Prices Plunge Nationwide, Boosting Tenants and Buyers
Rental market deflation is spreading across the U.S. Austin is down 22% from peak. Fort Myers is down 19% Denver is -13% Atlanta is -11% Nashville is -11% Dallas is -11% Landlords are doing big rent cuts across the Sun Belt and West. In some cases, they're...
War with Iran Could Collapse Global Financial System
If I wanted to discredit US neocons & their foreign sponsors for a generation, I would give them exactly what they have always wanted: A big war with Iran, at their urging… …that leads directly to a collapse of global financial...
SPY Holds Above 652, Next Bounce Target 637
$SPY $SPX $ES_F Now below 652 and the 200 day MA (which is still upward sloping). If no failure here, the next logical bounce spot would be 637 and the AVWAP from the TT lows... https://t.co/EiIW0iYugM
US Bond Yields Surge to Highest Levels Since 2023
Bloomberg on the selloff in the US bond market: “Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first...
S&P Forms Bear Flag
SPs "ate the tail": (This also appears as a bear flag on 2 - 4 hours charts). Rus only index not to have taken out PDL...yet... https://t.co/He4PxAzRWd
Silver to Slip Below $50 by Year‑End
I think I will end up being right that Silver trades below 50 by year-end. Remember the insults I received?
Per‑unit Housing Costs Mislead without Unit Mix Context
This is an example of why I dislike "per unit" metrics in housing discourse & policy $827K/per unit sounds really really bad ... and it's not GOOD BUT ... when you take unit mix, and size, into account it gets a little...
Momentum Surged as Investors Chased Capex Stocks
True to form the momentum came out of these once everyone started searching for momentum stocks and the capex trade https://t.co/RSigVToqMT
Oil Prices Rise Modestly Despite Major Hormuz Disruption
Oil Prices and the Information War Global oil prices have risen surprisingly little given the war between the United States, Israel and Iran has triggered “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” according to the International...
TNX Breaks Triangle, Bullish Spike Ahead
$TNX Monthly. Head-fake lower last month. Surge higher this month. At apex of multi-year triangle. This is ideal bullish setup for rates on 10-Year to explode higher https://t.co/aCdWZY5Kd9
SPY Tests $650 MVC, Likely to Keep Chopping
$SPY is testing the MVC at $650 after a full day of chop. There's not much momentum going into this move, would not be surprised if we continue to chop.