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Tuesday recap
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CBS Evening News the bank is exploring the launch of prediction‑market services for its clients. The move could blur lines between gambling and investing and draw heightened regulator attention.
The article explains gamma exposure (GEX) and dealer hedging, showing how positive GEX stabilizes markets while negative GEX amplifies moves. It highlights the surge in zero‑day‑to‑expiration (0DTE) options, which reshapes intraday GEX calculations, and introduces SpotGamma TRACE for real‑time monitoring....
Hormuz Closure, December Futures Signal Post-Inflation Deflation - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz might have already triggered a global recession, with lose-lose implications for most risk assets and commodities -- particularly crude oil. Rolling to front-month just before...
This is downright freaky. From Feb '25 - Mar 31, the SPX was down 9%, & closed on the JPM 5,565 Put on 3/31 Then came April 2nd "Liberation Day". The SPX subsequently dropped 10% 2026: SPX -6% from Feb, rallying to...
FIS announced its CD Prediction Clearing solution, delivering 24/7 real‑time post‑trade clearing for regulated prediction markets. The cloud‑native platform replaces batch processing with high‑volume, instant risk updates, handling millions of transactions daily. Built on the existing CD Books and Records...
Natural Gas $5, T-Bonds 5%: Inflation vs. Deflation - January (Jan27) US natural gas futures and the 30-year Treasury bond on the same scale highlights inflation vs. deflation implications of $5 per million BTU gas and 5% yields. Full report on...
Positions are super light. Alpha up 6.5% YTD 2% of AUM in SPX Puts bought on yesterday close A boatload of STIR bought higher but exposed to rate cuts and recovering That's it Beta up 5% YTD cuz own gold and commodities as...
DraftKings unveiled a prediction‑market platform as part of a new “super app” that blends sports betting, casino games and binary‑style contracts. The move follows its October acquisition of Railbird Technologies and comes as the CFTC pushes to treat such markets...
CFTC enforcement chief David Miller announced a new enforcement drive against insider trading on prediction‑market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. He pledged to hire additional staff, pursue civil and criminal cases, and roll out a streamlined cooperation policy, signaling...
Thinking you have deployable cash is a risky mistake that leads to surprise margin calls for many options traders. @Tradesviz Options Command Center instantly reveals your true liquidity, exposes hidden concentration risk in your Capital Reserved breakdown, and shows exactly when...
Australian superannuation funds now manage A$4.5 trillion (about $3 trillion) in assets, roughly 160 % of GDP. Growing offshore allocations and increased derivative use have heightened liquidity risk, especially amid volatile markets and geopolitical shocks. Funds are adopting tools such as repo facilities,...
In Q4 2025 USD swaptions reported to SDRs showed a 14% year‑over‑year decline in trade count to 19,055, yet average trade size increased 24% YoY to $181 million, pushing total notional volume up 7.4%. Volatility in the SOFR swap rate narrowed, with...
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has secured SEBI approval to launch Indian Natural Gas Futures in partnership with the Indian Gas Exchange (IGX). The contracts will be based on IGX’s benchmark GIXI price index and will initially offer twelve monthly...
Kalshi is pushing back against state regulators who label its sports‑related binary contracts as gambling, insisting the platform matches traders rather than taking bets. The dispute, involving $2.7 million in weekly fees and courts in Massachusetts, Nevada and New Jersey, could...
Everyone thinks VWAP is the edge… it’s not ❌ The real edge? Understanding the VALUE AREA around it 🎯 👉 Inside value → fade the edges 👉 Outside value → follow the move That’s the difference between guessing… and reading the market 📊 Comment “VALUE” and...
my S&P 500 $SPX vs. volatility $VIX model fired another buy signal for equities yesterday as it settled... https://t.co/3FNpIhBqkB
The Singapore Exchange (SGX) will debut Asia‑Pacific government bond futures on 20 April, covering sovereign bonds from India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. The contracts, margined and settled in US dollars, offer three maturities—three, five and ten years—based on FTSE Russell’s...
The big drop you see in Brent crude prices overnight is primarily the prompt (ie front-month) contract roll from May to June May Brent crude contract expired at >$118 June currently [somehow??] trading at $101 So relieved to hear this will be entirely...
Brent futures are beginning to reflect physical reality $118. 35 closing price was only $0.68 less than peak Ukraine in late March 2022 Much steeper backwardation now https://t.co/N03VvzUcs3
Gold futures surged $142 to $4,699 per ounce on Tuesday, while silver futures rose $4.78 to $75 per ounce, marking a notable rebound after two months of steep declines. The rally coincided with a broader stock market upswing fueled by...
If yesterday's rip-roaring rally wasn't enough and you were not entertained, then----- Tonight, Trump addresses the nation on Iran. Here are the scenarios, what I'd assign to each, and how futures likely react:
Might not feel like it now, but the first two months of this year were literally one of the least volatile in history. In terms of the range, it was indeed the smallest range EVER. To see a bigger move in...
In this episode of the Brave New Coin Crypto Conversation, host Andy Pickering talks with Waoul, Director of Dext Ventures and CMO of PerpTools, about DEXTools' evolution into a full DeFi trading stack. Waoul explains how PerpTools integrates on-chain perpetual...
In special situations, process is the only variable you control. Make sure your legal rights get as much exercise as an ITM call.
JUST IN: Brent crude oil futures surged 60% in March, delivering the biggest monthly gain ever.
Effective March 31, 2026, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation (GLDD) options will settle through the National Securities Clearing Corporation’s Continuous Net Settlement (CNS) system, ending broker‑to‑broker settlement for new exercise and assignment activity. The underlying deliverable remains 100 GLDD common shares....
Effective March 30, 2026, the Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund (CAF) options will transition from broker‑to‑broker settlement to Continuous Net Settlement (CNS) via the National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC). This change eliminates the need for bilateral clearing for all exercise and...
May natural‑gas futures slipped slightly, closing at $2.884 per million British thermal units after peaking at $2.977 on Tuesday. Analysts attribute the dip to record U.S. production and a seasonal warming trend. Demand estimates show residential and commercial consumption at...
With the Hormuz Strait all but closed, the crude oil futures curve is back to the backwardation levels of the first few days of the conflict. The front contract is about $23 higher than the 9th contract, indicating that the...
Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's within the collar. Think the S&P is going to rip to new all-time highs? Sorry, there's a short call at 7155 capping your upside. The hedge fund already sold it....
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Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) are a privileged form of employee equity that allow key staff to purchase company shares at a preset price, typically with a ten‑year exercise window and vesting schedules such as a three‑year cliff or graded vesting....
Extremely Low Positioning: Both #COMEX and #SHFE #silver open interest are currently trading at the very bottom of their historical ranges
The Direxion Daily NFLX Bull 2x ETF (NFXL) delivers 200% of Netflix’s daily price movement by combining actual NFLX shares with swap contracts. Launched on October 3, 2024, the fund holds roughly $130 million in assets and trades about $27.6 million each day, with...
The $VIX closed above 30 in each of the last 2 trading days. Historically, this level of fear in the Volatility Index has been associated with above-average future stock market returns (+21% over the next year on average). But the...
Goldman Sachs’ prime trading desk says hedge funds have trimmed global equity holdings for a sixth straight week, widening short positions and flagging a broad capitulation in U.S. stocks. Short exposure in European macro products hit 11%, a decade‑high, while...
U.S. equity futures rose after reports that former President Donald Trump may end military operations against Iran, even as the Strait of Hormuz stays partially closed. The news eased the pressure that had driven the S&P 500 and Dow toward their...
U.S. equity futures jumped on Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.8% and Dow futures gaining 500 points, as analysts cite bargain hunting and easing war‑related anxiety. The move follows a week of steep declines across major indices.
This is TRACE, the most accurate SPX GEX map you can get. It also updates faster than any GEX map 😏. Remember: +50% of SPX flow is 0DTE and so if you are tracking gamma, you need to see that...
Julie Rubinstein, COO and President of Adaptive Biotechnologies, exercised stock options and sold 81,342 shares for roughly $1.21 million, cutting her direct holdings by 11.2%. The transaction, executed under a pre‑filed 10b5‑1 plan, comes as the firm prepares to report positive...
U.S. GAS FUTURESprices for the front-month have slipped well below $3 per million British thermal units to encourage more gas-fired generation and reduce coal combustion. Inflation-adjusted front-month futures have averaged just $3.05 so far in March (21st percentile for all...
[FREE] 👉 Live trade 9am NY: https://t.co/66dSROf2rQ ─────── 📈 GC Current Price Above VWAP · Bias: Long ⬆️ Buy rips through 4724.20 ⬆️ Buy dips at 4691.50 ─────── 🌏 Asia ORB Readings High: 4724.20 | Low: 4691.50 | Range: 32.70 pts
The 5-day Equity-Only Put/Call Ratio has been sitting near 2-year range highs The setup for a short-covering rally was there Tough tape if you can't stay reactive $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/5RbeIFVmNC
Actually, the takeaway should be that very few humans can risk manage something both ways (up and down days) when that something's Vol ramps > 30. At least this human didn't
Volatility indices across the spectrum have continued to remain elevated, from oil (OVX) to stocks (VIX) to bonds (MOVE). The market has remained in a state of stress, even as the drawdowns in the private credit leaders have moderated. https://t.co/iWYDR6GvD2
White smoke can be seen billowing out of the top of the JP Morgan building as a new JPM collar strike has been chosen https://t.co/UWJFjOF7Rr
to put this into context, i mark the average open px for the 0DTE SPX straddle at $44 2 hours left $32 is like an FOMC day https://t.co/nvzRnpkt0F
Nasdaq (QQQ) 3250 September $515 puts sold to open $20.10, making $495 a floor level to eye later this year and even $515 itself is AVWAP off 2022 lows and long-term channel support https://t.co/AYJgeMyq8o
I am also beginning to leg into long bond shorts against a portion of this position to play for a steepener.
$Eur approaching $1.15. Between today and tomorrow around 6.5 bln euros of options expire. $GBP approaching $1.3250 where GBP650 mln options expire today. https://t.co/bSx6eAhEKQ
Equity futures are up, but so is energy. Maybe we can have it both ways. 😀 https://t.co/i3bGq3ZY9M
