Market Watch: June Nymex Climbs as Forecasts Warm
June NYMEX natural‑gas futures jumped 15.3¢ to $2.91 per million British thermal units, marking a notable intraday gain. Gelber & Associates said the market still feels like a shoulder‑season but the demand mix is improving where it matters most. An overnight forecast adds roughly 11.5°F across the Lower 48 over the next 1‑15 days, especially in the first ten days, giving traders a clearer early‑cooling demand signal. The price lift reflects the market’s reaction to warmer weather expectations despite a slight cooling later in the outlook period.
Dow Jones Futures: Techs Fall On $100 Oil, South Korea AI Comments; CPI Inflation Due
Dow Jones futures slipped 0.1% while the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.9% as crude oil surged past $100 a barrel. In South Korea, a presidential adviser floated an “AI dividend” from excess artificial‑intelligence profits, sending the memory‑chip‑heavy...
SEC Delays Launch of 24 Prediction‑Market ETFs, Echoing Bitcoin Fund Saga
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission halted the scheduled debut of 24 prediction‑market exchange‑traded funds, saying it needs more time to assess liquidity, market structure and investor safeguards. The move mirrors the protracted approval process for spot bitcoin ETFs and...
Kin Insurance Raises Record $335 Million Catastrophe Bond to Boost Homeowner Coverage
Kin Insurance closed a $335 million Hestia Re Series 2026-1 catastrophe bond, the largest in its history, to broaden protection for homeowners in storm‑ and wildfire‑prone areas. The deal taps institutional capital, giving the digital‑first carrier a stronger buffer against extreme‑weather...
🎯Take Profit Alert: HOOD and ASTS Cash Secured Puts
The Options Oracle trader closed two cash‑secured put positions, realizing strong returns on Robinhood (HOOD) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS). The HOOD put generated about $200 profit, an 82.5% return on the $243 premium collected, with 18 days remaining. The ASTS...
CME to Launch 24/7 Crypto Futures Trading on May 29, Covering Nine Major Coins
CME Group announced that its Crypto Complex will begin continuous 24‑hour, seven‑day trading of cryptocurrency futures on May 29, expanding to nine digital assets that represent over 75% of market cap. The move follows the recent launch of Avalanche and...
Natural Gas Futures Sustain Intraday Momentum as Summer Demand Nears, War Endures
Natural gas futures continued their intraday rally as the market priced in a hotter summer and persistent geopolitical tension. Prices rose roughly 3% to around $2.55 per million British thermal units, reflecting tighter European storage and higher U.S. demand for...
Tesla Surges 3% as $20M Net Calls Flood In
Quite the rally on $TSLA, $20M in Net Calls over the past 30 minutes. Underlying is up ~3%.
#58940
The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) will consolidate Roivant Sciences Ltd.’s flex option series from the ticker 1ROIV to the standard symbol ROIV. The change applies to the C‑series contract expiring on September 18, 2026 and becomes effective at the opening of business...
Morning Rant – 5/11/26
On May 11, 2026, JB released his daily "Morning Rant," a brief market commentary that scans equity, fixed‑income and macro trends. He flagged heightened volatility in the S&P 500 as earnings season approaches and noted the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on...
Bulls Gaining Edge in ‘Tug of War’ as Natural Gas Trying to Break Through Resistance
Natural gas June futures are testing a key technical resistance, with prices probing the upper Bollinger Band. Production outlook remains bearish and LNG export constraints are dampening market sentiment. Forecasts show rising summer heat, adding demand pressure. The market is...
Institutions Bet $22M on Copper Supercycle by 2026
Big money just spoke loud and clear on the LME. A monster Sept ’26 15,500–17,000 call spread traded in 5,500 lots for roughly $22 million in premium. That’s not retail noise, that’s institutional conviction betting copper is heading significantly higher by late...
Another Real Crisis Hiding Behind Record Highs
The post warns that a hidden crisis is unfolding in a market sector, echoing the subprime auto loan collapse that is occurring beneath today’s record‑high equity valuations. It argues that investors are distracted by speculative gamma‑squeeze trades that fuel a...
#58938
The OCC announced that the Chicago Futures Exchange (CFE) will become an anonymous exchange, suppressing all counter‑party identifiers on trades effective June 1, 2026. The change also covers trades executed during the extended session on May 31, 2026. Screens such as the Trade Inquiry...
Michael Burry Warns AI‑driven Rally Mirrors 1999‑2000 Bubble as S&P Hits Record
On May 8, Michael Burry posted a Substack note warning that the AI‑centric rally is echoing the final phase of the 1999‑2000 dot‑com bubble. He cited the semiconductor index’s 65% YTD gain and bought put options on the sector, prompting traders...
UK Life Insurers Push Leverage on Structured Gilt Trades to 4x Amid Rising Funding Costs
UK life insurers have increased leverage on structured gilt asset‑swap trades to as much as four times, responding to higher financing costs and an uncertain economic outlook. The move deepens risk exposure while supporting pricing on pension‑buyout transactions.
China Drives Platinum Surge, Prompting South African Production Boost
China is pulling platinum into the country hard. A major Chinese refiner reports surging physical delivery demand on the new Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum contract. Speculators and industrial users are opting for delivery rather than closing shorts, capturing the premium over...
S&P Call Skew Hits 99th Percentile, Nets Forced Upside
Interesting stats from GS: - S&P call skew is the most extreme since “Liberation Day” last year — in the 99th percentile on a two-year lookback - Brian Garrett wrote: “Those who refused to increase nets at any point in the last...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Futures opened the week on headline‑driven volatility as a rejected Middle East peace proposal redirected risk‑averse capital into energy, indirectly supporting agricultural contracts. Energy flow through the straits remains uncertain, keeping markets skeptical of any war‑related commentary. Meanwhile, the upcoming...
Corn Set for Second-Half Price Pressure, Consumers Benefit
Corn, Like Crude, Faces 2H Price Pressure Similar to crude oil, the US is the largest producer of corn and a net exporter, while prices have bounced in 1H and domestic supplies are ample. The recipe benefits consumers, not prices. Full report...
VIX Squeeze Template: Warning Signs & Essential Reading
My VIX squeeze template built on @AndrewThrasher concepts. To avoid confusion, my green checks are warning signs. His paper is a perennial. Do yourself the favor of reading it. https://t.co/qzePB8O2Zn https://t.co/253fqrOzJ2
CEO David Overton Exercises 104,000 Options, Sells Shares for $6.3 Million
David Overton, chairman and CEO of The Cheesecake Factory, exercised 104,000 stock options that were set to expire in February 2027 and immediately sold the resulting shares for a weighted‑average price of $61.02, netting roughly $6.3 million. The transaction, disclosed in...
Nasdaq Futures Open Interest Hits Decade Highs, Bull
Checking in on Nasdaq 100 futs activity given this incredible charge. $NQ Open interest has been rising and is near decade-level highs. Net spec futures positioning hovering around neutral - was heaviest net bullish standing in 9 years just six...
U.S. Crude Futures Rise to $98.07, Up 2.8%
JUST IN: U.S. Crude Oil Futures settled at $98.07 per barrel, up $2.65 or 2.78 percent.
CMC Enters European Certificates and Warrants Market
CMC Markets announced the launch of its first listed securitised derivatives, entering the certificates and warrants market in Germany and Austria through its Frankfurt subsidiary. The rollout coincides with growing demand for exchange‑traded structured products across Europe and follows a...
Mag10 Index Shows Half Typical Realized Correlation
Mag10 index is about half the internal realized correlation as it is typically (realized corr usually in the 30s) you can run your own here: https://t.co/x6uhVkqDPT https://t.co/ZO3k762JAs
Derivatives Pros Label Michael Selig the Market Joker
“Miller said out loud what a growing number of derivatives professionals, people who actually hedge corn, crude, Treasuries, and currencies for a living, have been muttering for months. Michael Selig is in fact behaving like the joker in a deck...
Hong Kong Plans to Revive Gold Futures Amid Rising Demand
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing is set to revive gold futures trading within the next few months, responding to surging demand from mainland China and broader Asian markets. The government will back the relaunch with a new clearing system and...
Cheap SPCE $3 Calls Signal Potential Frothiness
Virgin Galactic (SPCE) 8000 June $3 calls bought $0.38 to $0.42 May be a bit frothy when they start buying calls in SPCE
Soybean Meal Insight Soon to Be Claimed by Others
Just a matter of time before other futures market "analysts" feature Soybean Meal as if it were their idea $ZM_F https://t.co/uTVT1DFMKr
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Odds: Down Again
Kalshi’s prediction market shows the probability of normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz swinging dramatically over the past week. Analysts link the volatility to Iran’s strategic leverage and the lingering uncertainty surrounding U.S. diplomatic moves. Brent crude hovers around...
Covered Call Strategy Spotlight: Intel and Micron
Last Friday, I joined @CNBCClosingBell with @TheJudgeCNBC to detail our covered call strategy with Intel $INTC and Micron $MU. ➡️Link: https://t.co/B23bvI94Ku @cwp_advisor https://t.co/uFDU4GsAY0
Price Controls Temporarily Bridge Futures‑Physical Gap, Then Collapse
Another way to say "disconnect between futures & physical" is "price controls." Price controls work for a while...until they don't.
UBS Launches Machine‑learning Merger‑arb QIS with First Private
UBS is adding a merger‑arbitrage quantitative investment strategy (QIS) to its product suite, using machine‑learning models built on a 30‑year transaction database from German asset manager First Private. The systematic index will be delivered to institutional clients via swap contracts,...
SPY Eyes $55k, Calls Surge Amid 1999 Vibes
S&P $SPY 55,000 Sep. 30th (Q) $825 calls buying 3.89 to 3.95 into record highs Partying like its 1999
Yield vs Oil: Diverging Trends on 3-Day Tick Chart
3-day tick chart ... * White (right scale), U.S. 10-year yield * Blue (left scale), June WTI Crude Oil Futures What is the difference? https://t.co/nwUGdEL9j4
Share Futures Ease, Dollar Gains as Gulf Talks Teeter
Share futures in Asia slipped as the dollar edged higher following a deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations that left the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut. Brent crude jumped 2.8% to about $104 a barrel and U.S. crude rose 2.7% to $98,...
Costless Collars Thrive When Spot and Vol Rise
Great stuff. Stock replacement trades in a vol up spot up don't work. But costless collars are extremely attractive
Corn Rebounds; Post‑flush Rally May Become Sustainable
Corn start of another daily swing up after a long liquidation flush. After these flushes a more sustainable rally can take hold. https://t.co/gUHutZKqay
Silver Prices Plunge 48% in 2026, Triggering Volatility Spike in Options Markets
Silver tumbled from an all‑time high of $118/oz in January 2026 to around $60/oz within months, igniting a sharp rise in volatility for silver options and futures. The swing reflects a mix of macro pressures, leveraged speculation, and persistent industrial...
Ethereum Futures Market Prices $2,200+ Target for End‑May 2026
Polymarket traders assign a 68% probability that Ethereum will remain at or above $2,200 by May 31 2026. The market’s confidence comes as crypto volumes dip and institutional tokenization efforts keep Ethereum at the center of digital‑asset infrastructure.
Deep‑Learning Calibration Cuts Errors in Heston‑Hull‑White European Option Model
Researchers at Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics unveiled a deep‑learning‑aided calibration method for the Heston‑Hull‑White model that outperforms standard benchmarks on SSE 50ETF European options. The hybrid approach delivers the lowest out‑of‑sample pricing errors in a rolling‑window test covering...
Determining Implied Volatilities of American Options Using the Willow Tree Method
Researchers propose using the Willow tree method to compute implied volatilities for American options, overcoming the speed limitations of traditional bisection techniques that apply only to European options. The approach requires calculating transition probabilities once, then updating tree nodes as...
Another All Time High For SPX. Where To Next Week? May 11 Plan
The S&P 500 e‑mini (ES) surged past 7400, marking another all‑time high after a classic "Failed Breakdown" at 7213. The newsletter explains that institutions use such breakdowns to trap short sellers and accumulate long positions. Recent price action confirmed the...
Apple Near $295 ATH, Bullish Setup Targets $400
$AAPL Trade Set Up 5/11/26 🚨 -Approaching ATH Level $295 -Bullish Price Action -Wedbush Raises PT To $400 -Potential Break Of Structure Into New Highs Set up -Next Pivot $299+ above $295 -Key Retrace Levels For Bounce: $290 Full premium watchlist in my bio 🤝
Corn Bets May Be More Vulnerable than Soy
🔥Speculators built record bullish bets across U.S. grains & oilseeds in the first week of May, anchored by massive net longs in corn and soybeans. But which of those positions looks more vulnerable right now? I break this down in my...
Bitcoin Dips Below $80,000 as Options Traders Load Up on Calls
Bitcoin briefly fell under $80,000 before rebounding to $80,360, while options traders flooded the market with call contracts. Open interest surged to $2.5 billion, and Binance accounted for roughly a third of that activity, underscoring renewed appetite for leveraged crypto bets.
Massive BTC Liquidations Signal Downside Pain Ahead
$4,300,000,000 in short liquidations if $BTC pumps $10,000. $14,500,000,000 in long liquidations if Bitcoin dumps $10,000. Max pain still remains to the downside over the next 2-3 months. https://t.co/2bvYwhCd0j
Traders See 89% Chance Strategy Will Dump BTC, Volatility Expected
🚨 On Polymarket, traders are now pricing in an 89% chance that Strategy will start selling $BTC. If this happens, market volatility could spike hard. 👀 https://t.co/rKKMs6iyDS
CFTC Hits New York Trader with $200,000 Fine for Treasury Futures Spoofing
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined New York‑based trader Sidney Lebental $200,000 and barred him from trading for a month after finding he spoofed Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. The enforcement action, covering...