Breakout Signals Buying Opportunity in Silver
Strong feeling this was the break to buy in precious metals For sure the break to stack $SI_F https://t.co/uLHE50DU5D
S&P Jumps as Trump Pauses Iranian Strikes, Oil Slides
Hope you’ve had your coffee Futures are ripping to start the week S&P is up 1.5% pre market after Trump says the U.S. will pause further strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for 5 days Oil reacting fast, down 10% to $90 Big week ahead...
SPX Futures Surge Post‑Trump, Watch 6623‑6754 Resistance
The morning changed pretty fast — $SPX futures went from -45 to +130 handles after Trump said the last 48 hours of talks were very productive. There should be some resistance near 6623ish, and 6754 is the major if this...
Dow Futures Surge 1,200 Points After Trump's Iran Talks Claim
Dow futures jump 1,200 points after Trump says U.S. and Iran have held ‘productive’ talks: CNBC https://t.co/ayLrxCx0Ot
Hedge Funds Buy 120 BCF Gas, Still Below Historic Levels
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 120 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major gas futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 17....
Lock in $5 per Gasoline Can via Spot Arbitrage
You can hold that garbage can full of gasoline and wait for higher prices, but risk Trump TACOing and prices dumping. Or you can simply sell the garbage can of gasoline into spot and buy the same garbage can back for...
Funds Hold Strongest Corn Bullish Stance Since 2025
🌽Money managers as of March 17 held their most bullish position in CBOT corn fut & opt since late Feb. 2025, as more shorts were forced out of the market. That marked funds' 9th consecutive week as net corn buyers, their...
USTs Open Rough; Front-End Pressure
Nasty open for USTs with front-end under the most pressure. 2y futs off 3.5 ticks
Polymarket Predicts 28% Chance Hormuz Reopens by April
Polymarket, a large prediction market, shows only a 28% chance that the Strait of Hormuz will open for normal traffic by the end of April. TRUMP & NETANYAHU’S WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COSTS. https://t.co/slk6gIZTUJ
Airlines' Abandoned Fuel Hedges Signal Rising Ticket Prices
Oh no! US airlines are no longer hedged against oil price shocks. Now we will all be paying in higher fares. Just like PJM states who didn't hedge against the recent increase. And California in 2000-2001. Hindsight is 20-20 but...
Predictor Misses ETH, Turns to ES_F 7700
Person who said $ETH 9K right before it dropped 50% now says $ES_F 7700 https://t.co/5spjzy9CBi
JHEQX Option Shift Negligible; only Market Makers Notice
This may or may not be true. But unless you care about which exchange/clearing/venue has volumes. Shifting $JHEQX from SPX cash options to some other form of ES options or BTIC+ settled ES options has literally no impact on...
Ditch the 1% Rule, Unlock Real Trading Growth
The 1% rule kept me stuck for YEARS. 🤦♂️ Thought I was “managing risk”… really I was just limiting growth. There’s a better way to scale when the setup is there. I break this down daily in Discord with 11,000+ traders. Drop SETUP and...
High‑beta Stocks Outshine Low‑volatility Amid Market Rally
As @JC_ParetsX recently mentioned, it is peculiar to see high beta outperforming low volatility during this recent surge lower. Not what you'd expect to see if things were as bad as they keep telling us. https://t.co/rGvxOprdO0
Harvard Cancer Researcher Delivers 2,000% Options Gains
Today I'm premiering my interview with Tito Adhikary @GnT_Trades A Harvard Cancer Researcher turned Options Trader Tito returned over 2,000% in the 2025 USIC trading growth stocks with options. Here's a quick preview 👇 https://t.co/2X9kxXvqkq
WTI Crude Plummets $27 in Two Days
Yes, but there is more to it than just that..... such as the $27 spread in CLK26/CLK28 May 26 WTI Crude Oil Futures settled $98.23 May 28 WTI Crude Oil Futures settled $71.23
S&P 500 and June E‑Mini Breach Key Support, Risk Downside
Both S&P500 and S&P June E-Mini Futures looked to have violated levels that could lead to additional downside. https://t.co/lo2FDEAZl2
New Data Backs 5% Canary Theory Despite Market Anomalies
More data that supports the idea behind my 5% Canary paper. Markets don’t always follow historical precedence, but still important to know.
VIX 23.5 Signals Dangerous Market Uncertainty
$VIX at 23.5. Not panic. Not complacency. The ugly in-between where nobody knows what to do. Most dangerous market condition there is. https://t.co/c8of6UQSir
Speculators Reach Year‑High Bitcoin Longs, Echo Past Bull Signals
One last COT note: for the Bitcoin believers. Net spec futures positioning has pushed up to its highest net long in a year. Last two peaks in this area aligned to basing before strong bull legs. This time different? https://t.co/0XegxFutnJ
AUDUSD Net Longs Reach Highest Level Since 2017
Another remarkable change in net-speculative positioning comes from AUDUSD. A further nudge in the net long positioning, pushes futures spec interest to the heaviest long since October 2017. A carry drive as rate forecasts pick up https://t.co/sJ0Xl2KxxD
EURUSD Futures Net Long Plummets Record 84K Contracts
In case you missed it, net speculative futures positioning behind $EURUSD posted its biggest weekly 'net drop' on record - an 84K contract drop in the net long. That's a strong move away from the anti-dollar pressure over the past...
CFTC Data Shows USD as Preferred Iran Hedge
CFTC positioning: USD as Iran hedge Chart: dollar weighted exposure in million dollars versus number of non-commercial participants (speculators) large dot: most recent small dots: last year grey dots: last 10 years green: long red: short src: BBG, Merk https://t.co/LDLtec7oXv
Put Premiums Deliver 40% Annual Returns
Some thoughts today on the week ahead in the market. Meanwhile, one of the things I didn't get to mention is that elevated premium on SLB and WFRD puts is creating 3–4% monthly yield, or close to annualized 40% returns,...
Oil Risks Surge as Spot Prices Rise, Volatility Falls
Oil riskies firmed a lot to the put and today spot up, vol down day https://t.co/yyPo6cUfXq
Fed Rate Cut Now Expected in October 2027
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
Urgent Call: Stop Now Before Angry
Assembling a team. We stop this right now, at any cost. Activists gonna find out what the angry 0DTE option mob can do
CFTC Allows FCMs to Use Bitcoin for Margin
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC announces Futures Commission Merchants can accept Bitcoin as margin collateral. https://t.co/oNOW4PB9po
Track Implied Delta by Comparing Poly to Futures
a quick little trading inspiration.. track the implied delta of the >90 market on poly compared to the corresponding futures price by tracking its price change. For example if the market went to 75% on a $1 rally then it's a...
Record $5.7T Options Expiry May Spike Volatility
Today, options worth $5.7 trillion are expiring - it’s a ‘triple witching day’ and one of the largest volumes in recent years. This accounts for about 8.4% of the entire market, which is significantly above the usual level. Against the backdrop...
Silver Risk Sentiment Flips as Put Skew Rallies
Big sentiment flip in silver riskies recently...driven both by put skew rallying and call skew getting hit https://t.co/uxFWp2eClV
USO Call Butterflies Signal Strong Oil Upside
USO trades in January and March 2028 are actually call butterflies today as 125/185/245 seeing plenty of upside for Oil
S&P 500’s Next Move: Uncertain
Will $SPX unclench up or down next week? It has been pretty consistent for a while now fwiw
Interval Map Levels Predicted 1,000% SPY Call Trade
Here's how I took a 1,000% trade on $SPY today. $660 had the greatest exposure on the Interval Map. $655 was the downside target. $SPY rejected near $660 and dropped near $655. Multiple times. That range held all day. In the afternoon, I entered...
Gold, Silver, Copper Forecasted Below 5‑Day SMA
GC, SI and HG will all have 7 closes below the 5 SMA today. https://t.co/9wuK7cjvOG
FDX Call Spread Trade Targets 10x Return
$FDX "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 347.50/352.50 Call Spread ($3.50) and sell the March 325 Put for 50 cents." puts expire, sell call spread near $5 or watch max out at a 10x
Oil Futures Signal Long-Term Impact From Iran War
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years. https://t.co/j23M3zH7AL
Vol Premium Soars While VIX Stays Low
Vol premium is near historic highs. But VIX is only 25. On the latest OPEX Effect on @excessreturnpod, @spotgamma explains what’s going on behind the scenes and what it could mean for the market. https://t.co/fKAHUZs21I
S&P Futures Target $655‑$657.5 Amid Pressure
Good morning. I’m on the road so limited contact from me. Spx futures-25 as “Boots on the ground” gets floated. Simplify it for today. Do we reclaim $655-$657.50 to relieve pressure. Or do we see $650.50 which looks...
Swaps Market Overprices Central Bank Rate Hikes
The swaps mkt discounted slightly more than BOE 3 hikes this year. Surely that is exaggerated. The mkt has 70 bp of ECB hikes discounted. Despite the hawks trying to outflank Lagarde's moderate tone, that too seems a...
Oil Backwardation Signals Spot Prices Outpacing Futures
My latest w/ @janetonthemoney on @SIRIUSXM 132 on oil: “Oil is in a backwardation, with the spot price being quite a bit higher than the forward prices... The futures oil markets are not thinking the way I am. The futures markets...
Rare Unpredictable Catalyst Shakes Oil and Gold Markets
Months ago well before the war inside the oil thread there was this. At the time you simply cannot predict a catalyst let alone this one but the larger pt is odds and setups. $CL_F $GLD https://t.co/tdubAxcT6a
Oil Volatility, Fed Caution Cloud Asian Markets
Asia mixed; oil volatility and Fed caution weigh, China holds LPR. Oil spike raises inflation/Strait-of-Hormuz supply risk; Alibaba weakens sentiment. Trade: hedge Asian equities with oil puts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Vol Skew Interpreted as Implied PDFs Across Expiries
Here's a question for options nerds Ignoring if it's "right" or "wrong" whether it's caused by paper flow or some expectations. Is baseline assumption in modern option thinking that each expiries vol skew represents an implied PDF and the vol...
Quadruple Witching Ahead; Options Hedging Fuels Today's Volatility
just a reminder that tomorrow is "quadruple witching" volatility today may in part be attributed to the hedging of options traders
Team Secures Exclusive License for S&P 500 Perpetual Product
Alright, y'all, looks like I'm eating crow on this one. This post from @bxunit very much says it is truly exclusive. "While this is the first product of its kind, it is also the only official S&P 500 perp product, meaning trade[XYZ]...
Calls Surge
Calls doubled on that move but reject at VWAP, likely round trip them waiting for the rip yo face off that never comes lol. But, worth the risk if it does 🤷♂️
June S&P 500 E‑Mini Closes Below Key Line, Equities Risk
A close below the horizontal line shown below on the chart of the June S&P 500 E-Mini may not bode well for equities..... https://t.co/sQT9z0yJfP
Option Flows Aren't Market Masters; March 5 Misread Macro
option flows don't always control the mkt, real bad call on Mar 5, too myopic in blowing off the macro https://t.co/hLBe0RyCYC
VRP Widens as Volatility Drops, Shown on PLTR
You can pull up this type of chart on almost any symbol and see that the VRP tends to be fatter when vol is low This is PLTR Written about it in lots of places. https://t.co/zUpvOPQB7T