Satirical Call for Extreme Market
Now build out a 6 month +-7% range, take Ethereum down 50%, kill the high beta trash, bomb Iran again but this time close the Strait of Hormuz, and then rally $ES_F twice in a row off the 200 dma. https://t.co/ykFk2TIWMU
VIX Plummets Despite Modest S&P Rise, Showing Over‑VIXing
$VIX had to come down with a 1% gain in $SPX. 3.7 points is a big drop for a 1% change, but we've been over-vixxing for a while now, as shown in the second chart. https://t.co/OV1trbLQxV
Crypto Perps Behave Like Options, Not Futures, Beware Leverage
More and more traders are looking to express a view on the weekends — with crypto. But perps function more like options than futures for retail traders, and that distinction matters more than most realize when leverage is on the...
NVDA Calls Surge $30M After $1T Revenue Forecast
$30M Call Spike on $NVDA after NVDA ceo says he expects revenue to surpass $1 trillion by 2027. 👇
Billions in FX Options Set to Expire Tomorrow
Notable FX options expiring tomorrow: 1.6 bln euros at $1.15 $720 mln at JPY158.40 A$430 mln at $0.7100 and A$485 at $0.7045 $685 mln at BRL5.20 $550 mln at CAD1.3645
Massive Nvidia Put Sales Signal Market Panic
Yes, this is why boatloads of $NVDA puts were sold to open this morning And yes, all the other options flow sites thought they bought https://t.co/6AWLqSDvRH
Master Market Structure Before You Even Enter Trades
Most traders blame their entries, indicators, or strategy. But the truth is… You lose before the trade even starts. Markets operate like an auction. Once you understand: • Price rotation • Value areas • Market structure Tools like VWAP and Volume Profile finally make sense. Comment “I’m in” and...
Rising 1‑Month Vol Triggers Upside Squeeze Risk
1-month realized vol is still above 3-month realized vol. That keeps the market in a high-volatility regime, which forces vol-control funds to reduce equity exposure as volatility rises. If 1M realized vol drops back below 3M realized vol, systematic strategies will be...
US‑China Talks Trigger Sharp Drop in May Soybeans
📉CBOT May soybeans have plunged the daily 70-cent trading limit after weekend U.S.-China talks - touted as successful - were viewed unfavorably (possible Trump-Xi meeting delay, mention of non-soybean row crop purchases). CBOT May bean oil was also limit down....
Closed NVDA March 165 Puts After Earnings Strangle
bought to close the $NVDA Mar 165 puts (was a roll from a workout of strangle sales for earnings)
May Beans Hit Largest Daily Drop, Technicals Hold
May Beans: largest daily down bar for May contract. note: Momentum sell div at the top, 3 bar triangle, then range expansion today on downside breakout. Despite news left and right, market technicals remain consistent...
Massive TLT Call Surge Signals Need for Bond Strength
Treasury (TLT) early big buying June $84 calls 7000X for $3M, need to see Bonds hold up for stocks to stabilize
Elevated IV and Tail Hedge Spike Signal Vol
The bid for tail hedges could be seen in mid-Feb and peaked for now on 3/6. Meanwhile, ATM IV (VOLI) remains elevated. Big week with VIXperation on Weds and quarterly OpEx on Friday. Relax at your own risk. https://t.co/BdigWM05b0
ES and NQ Trade Below Declining 5‑SMA,
$ES_F $NQ_F Green is the YTD low day VWAP / red is last wk high anchor = overhead levels of interest ES and NQ purple = new WTD anchor Both are below decl 5sma (not shown) https://t.co/ZoZZ8cTXK0
Markets Stay Calm on 5-Year Inflation Outlook
Market relatively sanguine about longer term inflation. 5 year, 5 year forward inflation swap showing no angst despite crude elevating front short-term swaps https://t.co/b8Po5HE6EV
Oil Trading Treated as Abstract Futures, Not Physical Settlement
Peeps seem to be trading oil like an abstract future and not something that physically settles
Vanna‑driven Rally May Thrust SPX Into the 6,800s.
It *could* be a big week for a vanna driven rally into the 6,800s. Note here how VIX spread to SPX movement (RV) often contracts around VIX exp, which is this Wed. We've unlocked the AM Founder's Note to explain our...
CLZ26's High Risk Premium Reflects Delivery Incentive
CLZ26 price of 75 is the expected forward spot price of oil for December delivery plus a risk premium. That risk premium is likely higher than normal (Z26 is cheaper than normal) due to the high incentive for those...
Hedge Funds Boost Nat‑Gas Futures, Yet Still Below Historic Peaks
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 159 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 10. Fund...
Silver Futures Slip Below $77, Bearish Outlook Persists
Silver Futures: Down >$3.5 to the $77 handle. I feel like the lone or one of the few folks who have remained negative on higher prices (for now) based on a few different factors.
BTC Fills CME Gaps 95% of Time—Will It This Time
Historically, #BTC has filled its CME gap in 95% of cases. Will it close it this time? https://t.co/XkCluFm0gV
Crude Oil's 48% Surge Marks Second‑Largest 2‑Week Jump
Crude Oil Futures started trading in 1983. The 48% spike over the past 2 weeks was the 2nd biggest 2-week % increase in history. From $67/barrel to $99/barrel... Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
Geopolitical Guesswork Turned ₹1L Into ₹6Cr
The Option That Turned ₹1 Lakh Into ₹6 Crore 💸💸💸 On 26 Feb, MCX Crude Oil 9000 CE was sitting around ₹125–₹150.💡 Nobody touched it. Too far. Too boring. Then came the strikes on Iran, crude shot past ₹10,000.🔥 That same ignored option jumped...
Free Deep Pairs Trading Strategy Threatens Hedge Funds
Hedge funds are worried. Stat arb is now available to the masses. Some guy just published the most in-depth pairs trading strategy I've ever seen. 100% free
Massive $11.4M Oil Long Faces Liquidation at $88.4
Someone opened a $11,402,000 Oil long position yesterday. If Oil drops to $88.4, he will be fully liquidated. https://t.co/7YNdGzV93U
Oil Options Implied Volatility Surpasses 2022 War Peak
"Implied vol in oil options is above 100% (1m, ATM), climbing above levels seen at the peak during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 and comparable to those during the pandemic lockdown panic" --DB
Record Hedge Fund Shorts Signal Imminent Squeeze
Bearish hedge fund positioning is extreme: Shorts in US-listed ETFs +10% Thursday—2nd-biggest daily jump since 2016 (only topped by +16% on April 2, 2025 “Liberation Day”). ETF shorts +12% this week (after +8% last), +23% in last month. US macro shorts (incl. index...
Micro Futures Simplify Trade Management Across Cleaner Markets
Most traders only trade Nasdaq or gold. But markets like Dow Jones, Russell, crude oil, and natural gas often move with cleaner trends. The futures ticker you trade, the volatility, and your position size all impact your results. Using micro futures and choosing...
Quick Oil Options Tips: Read Vol Surface Instantly
One last pump...this came out yesterday. Dean and I talk oil, options, and some handy tricks for understanding a vol surface with a glance
Edge Lies in Better Event Probability, Not Sigma
Black-Scholes starts to break down when a stock stops trading on continuous volatility and starts trading on a mispriced discrete corporate event. In special situations, the edge is rarely in sigma. It’s in underwriting the probability-weighted outcome better than the...
Master Mental Options Chains: Part Two
Part 2 of "building an options chain in your head" which way too many of you nerds enjoyed
WTI Crude Surges 9% to $98.71, Monday Gains Expected
WTI futures price rose $7.81 (9%) from $90.90 to $98.71 week ending March 13 Higher price movement is likely on Monday based on 12-month spreads #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/qQdFuuupRU
ES Futures Break Support, Bears Dominate Until Recovery
Big Picture View: From December to this week, #ES_F was in a range with 6765 support. This week, it failed, and we sold. Bears control until it recovers Plan next week: 6640 must reclaim to see 6704, 6758-65. 6588 must hold...
VIX, GLD Skew Reveal Iran‑China Geopolitical Link
Honored to be on with @JermalChandler and @TraderMikeyB to discuss $VIX $GLD skew why #Iran is about #China https://t.co/N4yZ7QkrnI
Retail Investors Overleveraged, Flooding NVDA Call Market
Reality: most of these post-pandemic "Retail Investor" bulls just play a levered (fully loaded with options) game chasing the same stocks Despite the "get out" $NVDA Signal we issued this week, look at how many WEEKLY $NVDA $185 Calls traded...
Market Fear Matches 2022 Levels Despite Complacency
How big is the market fear factor? The 4 charts on the left show what's going on in spot markets. The 4 on the right show options markets. Compared to Russia's invasion of Ukraine 4 years ago, we're now at...
War Spikes Hedging While Markets Stay Oddly Complacent
As war escalates, markets look complacent. The S&P 500 is barely down and USD is up only a bit. But hedging activity in options markets is picking up a lot. That's most pronounced for oil (top left), but it's also...
Treasury Tapped Parallel Dollar Market, Used $2.5B, Made Profit
👀 💵Remember the fuss about Bessent conducting an ESF-funded fx swap exchange to support the Argentinian peso back in October 2025? We now have the details of those transactions via the quarterly reporting Congress requires for Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund operations. They...
Rate Volatility Rising; Oil Hikes Push Yields Higher
I went over this with clients already: rate volatility is just starting… “If 80 then 100” is what I said about MOVE and it’s got lots of room to move higher. Higher oil = higher yields
Money Managers Snap up Corn, Fourth‑largest Weekly Buy
🌽HOLY. CORN. BUYING. Money managers in the week ended March 10 bought more than 140,000 CBOT corn futures & options contracts (the fourth most for any week on record). The resulting net long - 193,271 contracts - isn't even halfway to the...
Linking CL and USO Time Spreads Reveals Arbitrage
Yesterday's post on CL time spreads combined with this image of USO which has time spreads on the same underlying regardless of maturity (CL1) creates a fascinating circle to square. Anyone running the SEC/CFTC jurisdiction RV desk knows the fun...
Dubai Physical Crude Trades $40 Above Brent Futures
Crude futures aren't telling the full story. See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below. Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical...
May Futures Collapse, Open Interest Near Zero
Boolish Silver folks watching May Futures drop $3 and getting close to sub $80. If folks really really wanted more physical, they should have stayed long March Futures, the open interest is a measly 875 contracts vs 77,604 in May (FYI...
MU Put Entry Strategy Unveiled with IUTraders Game Plan
$MU entry on puts @IUTraders and game plan -- sometimes you just have to ask ... 😎 https://t.co/aetAdrJh6S
SPX's VIX Sensitivity Drops to Unsettling Low
Beta of SPX to 1pt chg in the VIX has fallen to uncomfortable levels. Opposite in many ways to Volmaggedon where VIX was at depressed levels, but SPX showing almost no response to implied vol changes. https://t.co/zaPe03rueo
ADBE Call Spread Fails, Roll Puts Down‑Out
$ADBE "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 13 Expiry 275/280 Call Spread ($2.85) and sell the March 13 Expiry 255 Put for 30 cents.' a bust, call spread will expire. Will need to roll puts down and out.
VIX at 28: Uncomfortable Middle Signals Slow Damage
$VIX near 28. Not panic. Not calm. The worst place to be — the uncomfortable middle. Panic capitulates. Calm is stable. The middle is where real damage gets done slowly. Watch this number. https://t.co/hPhtbG45FE
Friday the 13th Fuels Ongoing Market Volatility
Again with Friday the 13th! And no love in the vol complex as we head into the weekend. https://t.co/x0OcW7xE6R https://t.co/eLS7V3zlfE
IBIT + Short Call Matches STRC’s 11.5% Yield
One last comment on $STRC as I am bored of the whole thing and happy just owning long $IBIT Over the next year you could own STRC and get 11.5% yield. Or Go long IBIT and short ATM call and collect...
Oil Futures Can Hedge Inflation Swaps via Energy CPI Component
Curious ? Inflation swap traders. Do you do partial arbitrage on inflation swaps using long dated oil contracts? For instance if receiving inflation do you sell CLM6 and buy CLM7 given that 8-20% of the cpi basket is...