Buy Crude at 83‑92; Below $75 Signals End
If you are bullish crude on reescalation, this is the buy zone .. Equilibrium in CL1 should be 83/92 .. Single prints yesterday on trump comments in the 91/92 area. Below $75 (the first Sunday gap when the war started) and it's probably over. https://t.co/xh7RfZfGW7
Today's IBIT Leaders: All Top Five Options Are Calls
Top 5 IBIT options traded today (by volume and by notional) are all calls: https://t.co/LW4IxoGyqb
Oil Call Options Show Limited Upside Beyond $120
🚨 Call options on oil DO NOT indicate significant interest above $120/barrel. signals optimism oil-price rise may be contained. https://t.co/nlL7YR1ZsA
Commodity Hedges Rarely Succeed; Soybean‑crude Link Fails Fast
Very rarely in my 32 years have I seen hedging off risk in another commodity work out. Sometimes it does, but not often. If you bought #soybeans Sunday to protect against rising crude that "hedge" is quickly deflating.
VX Futures Rise as Spot VIX Falls Near Expiry
Spot VIX is lower but VX futures are higher. WTF? Well, the March contract is moving closer to expiration so the gap to spot needs to start shrinking. Futures will have a hard time unless and until spot drops a...
BKLN Put Spread Purchase Signals Credit Concern
Senior Loans ETF (BKLN) buyer 7500 Oct. 19/16 put spreads, been a play on credit worries
Option Volume up 5%, Calls Lead, IV Split Across Stocks
From @Cboe: Monday's option volume of 72.4M contracts was 5% above recent average levels, with calls leading puts 8 to 7. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30-day IV was higher for 256 and lower for 199.
Mean‑Reversion ES Futures Deliver 50% Return, 1.67 Sharpe
#ES_F mean reversion strategy update. 13 trades since inception (May 21, 2025), 50% return (1 contract/$50K), 21% YTD. Sharpe ratio is 1.67. Link in reply below 👇 https://t.co/kptIfdqx6F
Oil-Linked Perpetuals Top ETH with $1.29B Volume
LATEST: Oil-linked perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid recorded $1.29B in 24h trading volume, surpassing ETH. Source: @Cointelegraph https://t.co/SjSRZQdxTb
December Crude and Corn Futures Poised Below $55, $4.60
Massive Short Cleansing or New Bull Market? Crude May Follow Gas - The invisible hand can be quite efficient in autocorrelated commodities, and crude oil and corn producers may have just received a chance to hedge and bring on more...
BTC Futures Funding Rates Signal Local Oversold Conditions
Funding rates in #BTC futures indicate local oversold conditions, according to data from CryptoQuant. https://t.co/uNn1ErbfZf
Oil and Silver Futures Reclaim $80+ Levels
Oil and Silver Futures cross back over in the $80's. Can't make this kinda stuff up if you tried. April Crude $85+, May Silver $89+
WTI Crude Plummets 24%, Speculation Unwinds
Crude Oil WTI Plunged by 24%, Back Below $88, from $116 Overnight. Gasoline Futures -16%. Manic Speculation Unwinds. The Futures Market is where the Imbeciles go nuts. https://t.co/uWAJTgQkXb https://t.co/EdZk8SVqd6
VIX Spread Collapse Signals Extreme Market Stress
Carnage in the short-vol trade. The Mar–Apr $VIX futures calendar spread collapsed through -$2, printing a > $2.50 weekly range and a -$3.18 low. That’s roughly a 6σ move, meaning the probability was at ~0.0000002% Translation: the volatility complex violently flipped into...
Blue Origin CEO Unveils New Stock Options After Criticism
A week ago I sent some questions to Blue Origin about its "monopoly money" stock options program. An hour ago, CEO Dave Limp tells the company they're launching a new stock options program. https://t.co/nNipz4qTtQ
Oil's Massive Move Shows Perfect VWAP Trend Day
🚨 Oil just woke up. Biggest weekly move since the 1980s Then another 12% move today. Perfect trend day structure: 📈 Momentum leg 📉 Pullback to +1 VWAP deviation 💥 Buyers step in 🚀 Continuation higher Those were clean PDC trades all day. Pulled 6K trading CL today. Comment VWAP...
Korean Trader Aggressively Buys 150C,
South Korea ripped off the 50-day. 11:20am sweeper bought 149K of the 3/27 150C. Feels like the same trader who nailed the short last Monday. Reminds me of the old $DIA sweeper from back in the day. If you know, you know. $EWY https://t.co/35pRSiDF13
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 28% After Iran Tensions
A different cut of the same idea, using options prices that reference 3-month SOFR via the Atlanta Fed's tracker In the one week between Feb. 27 (the day before the first strikes on Iran) and Mar. 6, the probability of at...
Choose Volatility Sales over Raising Cash This Week
Did you raise cash last week or did you sell vol, deploy cash, and sell put spreads?
$64M Short‑Dated Puts Sold Since Market Open
Puts have been selling off since the open on Mag 7, totaling $64M short-dated single-leg Puts sold today. 👇
Massive SPY Call Surge Amid
$15M Call Spike on $SPY just before close. Trump said, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much.”
Crude Oil Futures Likely to Stabilize Near $94
Crude Oil Futures could be unchanged soon $93.66 after the high of $119.48 kinda like that day in Silver Futures
Silver Futures +$5, E‑Minis
Insane moves no longer insane, Silver tame today.... Silver Futures +$5 from LOD E-Minis +132 from LOD
Minor VX30/VIX Uptick, Eyes on Next Two Hours
Tiny bit of improvement from VX30/VIX. Watching to see what the next two hours brings. https://t.co/6We2gflp6M
Two-Year Oil Futures Spike Since
Oil price futures, 2 years out: White: current blue: a week ago purple: 6 months ago Source: Bloomberg. https://t.co/IjF2clfIGe
VIX Spikes Above 30 on Monday
$VIX weekly - When did we see it pop above 30 on Monday, then sell off for the rest of the week before? That's right. August 2024 and April 2025. https://t.co/a6U74uaYNp
USO/SPY Pair Trade Targets: SPY to $5.30, USO to $114
$USO and $SPY pair trade in @IUTraders $SPY calls $1.7x's to $5.30s $USO $123.50s to $114s Here is bias/entry and game plans Nice work @CorleoneOffer https://t.co/IkJphEY3xo
VIX at 28 vs SPX Down 4.6
Vix front contract is 28 SPX Level 6650. Down 4.6% from ATH Which one is "wrong"
When VIX Hits 30+, It’s a Buying Signal
The VIX just hit 30. It's only been this high a handful of times in the last 20 years. Every single time was a great buying opportunity. VIX above 30 = buy VIX above 40 = go all-in VIX above 50 = do everything you...
Oil Surge Lifts Inflation Swaps, Not Signaling Recession
1Y zero coupon inflation swaps have jumped (obvi) as oil prices surged Much more surprising to me is that 1Y1Y inflation swaps have risen That is, this isn’t a “price spike = recession” move All this while the super-backwardation in crude doesn’t...
Hedge Funds Cash In on Oil Spike, Keep Bullish Bet
Hedge funds realise some profits as oil prices climb Hedge funds and other money managers sold Brent futures and options last week to realise some of their profits on former bullish positions as prices surged after the United States and Israel...
ES Futures Slip to 200‑Day MA, Brief Bounce
$ES_F down to the 200 day MA and a bounce for now. TBD where it ends up... https://t.co/bWFRDuQQ4U
Market Fear Peaks: Gap Widest Since 2000
Either the crash the market is pricing in arrives — or this is peak fear. Why? VIX at 32. SPX moving at 14%. The gap between fear and reality is the 5th widest since 2000: -Jan '09 (GFC): +24.4 -Jan '21 (Meme...
Positive VIX Spot‑Future Spread Signals Bearish Market
Here's the spread between spot VIX and the front month future. Positive spread is bearish. https://t.co/598aRc7d3r
US Stocks Just Starting to Sneeze, Put/Call Signals Downturn
US equities are only starting to sneeze. When it does, droplets fall everywhere, and you get infected. S&P500 and the CBOE Put/Call ratio. #SP500 #PutCallRatio #StockMarket $SPX $SPY #GlobalMarkets #PutCallRatio #TechnicalAnalysis #indiacharts https://t.co/hkGs4mAlj7
VIX Futures Reverse After Testing 30, Volatility Looms
$VX 30 was tested overnight but VIX futures reversed from there. May still be a spicy day ahead of us. https://t.co/NDJwW1XZhG
Master Gamma and Throttle for Pro Risk Management
GAMMA @t1alpha If you don't know where Gamma and its Throttle are, you really don't know how to manage risk like Macro Pros @Hedgeye do https://t.co/fU17MkB83v
2026 Carry Trade Plans Faltered as Curves Flattened
Basically; 2026 was supposed to be the year where you bought carry in 26 STIR contracts, and cash bond curves would steepen. Best laid plans and all that.
10‑Year Note Futures
10 Yr Note Futures fall again (-13.5/32's to 112-00+) Since tagging 114 and seeing the UST Active 10 Yr Note fall under 4%, it has been a steady reversal aided by the war in the Middle East. https://t.co/aX13QG6ARo
23800 Support Crushed, Target 275‑300 Zone
23800 was a crucial support for Nifty50 and it’s been brutally broken today 😬 >> Holding 10 Mar 23900 PE, avg ~195.50. Option already spiked to 325.95, largely driven by gamma expansion + IV spike after the breakdown...💥🔥 >> Current plan: looking for...
Brent and WTI Crude Surge to $119.5 per Barrel
Brent crude futures LCOc1 climbed to a high of $119.50 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 to $119.48 a barrel.
Oil and S&P Futures Keep Falling, Sentiment Wanes
Oil and S&P 500 Futures Extend Tumble to Start the Week – Is Sentiment Giving Way? Wrote this week ahead article on an airplane with awful wifi... https://t.co/PoHGRgI2oL
Brent Prompt Timespread Hits Record $9+, Signaling Unprecedented Tightness
The Brent crude prompt timespread is currently over *$9/bbl*, a new all-time record. Timespreads measure the steepness of the crude futures curve, which at the front (prompt) reflects how tight—loose if neg—the spot market is. The oil market has literally never been...
Oil Futures Hit -$42; Meme Traders Could Amplify Chaos
Reminder, oil futures once traded at negative $42 a barrel. And if the meme stock traders get a hold of this thing who knows where it can go?
S&P Futures Signal Potential Gap Down Through Dec Low
Stocks don't open for 12 more hours, but with futures -125 the S&P looks like it will gap down through the Dec. low; a low which became even more significant after Wednesday's bounce off its corresponding support. And if the...
US Oil Futures Surge 60%—Record Monthly Gain
US oil futures are now on track to rise +60% this month, marking their largest monthly gain in history. https://t.co/P4ciDNwr85
Stock Futures Plunge: Nasdaq Down 2.3%, S&P Near 2%
Losses for stock futures accelerating Nasdaq futures now down 2.3% S&P 500 futures down almost 2%
VIX Spikes Signal Huge Investment Opportunities Ahead
Every single time the VIX soars and panic ensues there has been a tremendous opportunity for investors. Buckle up. That moment may be coming soon. 🙏🏻👊🏻💪🏻
WTI Cracks $140, Near 2008 Record
After adding more than $40 a barrel in a little more than five trading sessions, the nominal record for West Texas Intermediate futures—$145.29, set on July 3, 2008—no longer seems out of reach @WSJmarkets https://t.co/rlxj1lnh5N
Corn Poised for Rally as Funds Stay on Sidelines
📈Speculative bullishness across U.S. grain/oilseed futures is at a three-year high, but funds haven't even begun to tap the potential that lies in corn. Does this mark the start of a run-up in corn? What could be the limiting factors? I covered...