Understanding the Fundamentals of Vertical Option Spreads
Here's a post on the basics of vertical spreads. I'll publish a more advanced one in X Articles for Friday the 13th. https://t.co/MEeZsvbmyb
Current ES_F
Not for nothing but any other time in say the last 8 years of Fintwit the current broadening $ES_F chart would have hundreds of 07-08 analogs on it.
Shorts, Not Longs, Control COMEX Silver Deliveries
Silver: The truth about recent Deliveries........ only talking COMEX Guys are posting Bullish comments here regarding Silver deliveries, and folks wanting to take position of the Metal. I wonder if they understand the longs are not in control of the delivery...
Earnings Options Skew
Earnings lottos 3/12/26 Adobe $290 Calls 255 Puts RBRK $63 Calls $48 Puts ULTA $682 Calls 597.5 Puts I don’t love em but let’s see what we got
Index Derivatives Essential; Token‑by‑token Hampers Market Evolution
"You absolutely need index derivatives. Doing things token by token is not a good way for markets to evolve." @baehr https://t.co/KrlOhykve7
Perpetual Contracts Excel but Clash with US Trading Habits
"Perps are a brilliant innovation and they've proven themselves successful, but not extremely compatible with how Americans tend to trade." https://t.co/KrlOhykve7
Record Hedge Levels Signal Potential Upside Rally
This chart, which has been doing the rounds, shows one of the most hedged equity markets in years. That usually means fear is already priced in, and the risk asymmetry increasingly favors upside surprises rather than further panic selling. This chart...
Methanex Surges 9% as Buyers Snap up $65 Calls
Methanex (MEOH) up over 9% now with buyers 2850 April $65 calls $2.10 to $2.45 The research works .. https://t.co/MV0sW89wl4
Massive $8.39 M Oil Short Targets $147.94
Someone has opened a $8,390,000 Oil short position today on Hyperliquid. Liquidation price: $147.94. https://t.co/LxECXDypMz
US‑Iran Conflict Raises Oil Prices, Not Yet a Shock
U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...
Volatility Strategies Open to Retail via Free PDF
Jane Street, AQR, Ren Tech... All use volatility. Retail was locked out... until now. A 327 page PDF was just released. For free:
Industry Flow Boosts Mosaic Calls, Buying Momentum
Mosaic (MOS) 9100 April $37.5 calls buy 1.05 as these names keep going The power of industry-wide flow trends
USO's IV30 Spikes 15%, Contrary to Expectations
$USO leads everything today in IV30 rise, +15%, the exact opposite of what we want to see
Expect a 4‑Hour Market Stall After Rapid Move
Those who smoke brisket can relate. In big move days the move happens rapidly till about now. Then the combination of 0DTE and leveraged ETF rebalance flows causes a 4 hour stall. Wrap the meat. Leave...
Protection Costs Surge Despite Modest S&P Gains
Wow. The cost for protection is nearly off the charts. Feels extreme given S&P 500 is about 4% from new ATHs. Nice one from @MacroCharts
Negative Gamma Pushes SPX/SPY Toward 6700 Support
Gamma exposure for the combined $SPX + $SPY view shows mostly negative exposure under spot. $6700 is a key support level; if it breaks, we could see a move towards $6650 pretty quickly. The range we are currently in is...
Prediction Markets See WTI Futures Still Rising
Prediction markets think WTI futures haven’t peaked yet Market-implied odds of maximum price of front-month contracts this year https://t.co/KJycyDttIE https://t.co/obrkd1ueUb
BTC Futures/Spot Ratio Surges as Traders Chase Leverage
The futures/spot ratio for #BTC on Binance is rising rapidly. According to data from CryptoQuant, traders are once again piling into leveraged positions, hoping to become fabulously wealthy. https://t.co/XQeEiRuPWB
Hold ISOs 1‑Year/2‑Year for Capital Gains
ISOs are attractive because, under the right conditions, gains from their exercise and sale can qualify for long-term capital gains treatment. However, to receive this preferential tax treatment, employees must wait to sell the employer stock until at least one...
Futures Struggle at WTD AVWAP; Overnight Low Break Risks Trouble
Futures are struggling with the WTD AVWAP, a break of the overnight lows could be troublesome $ES_F $NQ_F https://t.co/pQGwLxlyHR
Commodities Get Wilder When Retail Traders Bet Puts
If you thought commodities were fun with the retail crowd, just wait until they dive into puts.
Corn Rises, Soy Falls: Money Flow Drives Momentum Trade
#Corn story seems to be getting more and more bullish and the #soybean story seems to be getting much more negative. This isn't a production issue for soybeans such as hot and dry weather cutting the crop. The...
ATM Vol Premium Over Tail Hedge Signals Market Tension
At-the-money implied vol ($VOLI) normally trades at a premium to tail hedge ($TDEX). Makes sense. Both are elevated for obvious reasons. Folks agitated about the Middle East. This chart needs to repair itself before spooz can resume their cruise. @Nations_Indexes...
SHFE Silver Inflows Surge to Two‑Month High
SHFE #Silver Tide Turns 🌊 🚨The Shanghai Futures Exchange just recorded its largest single-day inflow in two and a half months
India VIX’s Low Level Signals Complacency Amid Global Tensions
How come the India VIX below is lower than it was during the Russia-Ukraine crisis? The US Vix is also lower than last year's wars and the Tariff announcements. Either we have not discounted the real extent of what has...
Bull Put Spread Bets Nifty Stays Above 23900
Opened a 23900..23800 bull put spread on Nifty (17 Mar expiry). >> Sold 23900 PE @ 304.75 >> Bought 23800 PE @ 231.85 (hedge) Net credit 👉 ₹72.9 View is simple: Nifty should expire at/above 23900....Structure wise this means I'm short gamma near 23900,...
Built AI-Powered Options Screener in 35 Minutes
holy shit, @perplexity_ai computer build an options screener with AI built in for my parents in 35 minutes
SVIX Climbs as Front‑end VIX Futures Sold
How the hell was $SVIX (short vol) up 4.5% today with equities mostly in the red?? Someone was selling the front end of the VIX futures term structure. https://t.co/oyCW72pqSw
ECB Rate Bet Reversal Costs Traders on Options
Traders suffer losses on options after U-turn in ECB rate bets https://t.co/IOlxq962Fs via @highisland @greg_ritchie https://t.co/EsJzYFwmea
Private Credit, Not AI, Holds the Real Risk
5 Months ago....and seeing it play out well with OWL puts and plenty of other exposed names
Record Put Skew Raises Risk of Downward Spiral
It seems like everyone and their brother is aware of the record levels of put skew and hedging in the market by now. I wonder what magnitude of a tail event is required to break that loose? Is there a level...
WTI Prices Dip While Volatility Hits Six-Year Peak
WTI crude oil remains well off its intraday high from Monday, but implied volatility - from the $OVX - continues to climb to fresh 6-year highs... https://t.co/VDf2X5NDWk
High VR
Fat VRPs but think vega is here to stay. as risk if risk premium here to stay..time spreads look decent https://t.co/IpY830RswR
Market Dips, yet Front‑end VIX Futures Being Sold
Despite 9 of 11 US sectors showing red, someone out there is selling the front end of the VIX futures term structure. https://t.co/Wr7rXuRzOu
US Government's Crude Short Roughly $10 B Margin Equivalent
I currently estimate the notional size of the crude oil futures short the US government ends up putting on to be roughly whatever $10 billion in margin gets you. Attached tweet unrelated.
VWAP Acts as Dynamic Support in Strong Trends
Oil volatility is back 🔥 One VWAP Bounce this morning paid before 8AM. In strong trends, VWAP becomes dynamic support, not mean reversion. Most traders fade it… Professionals buy the pullback. Comment VWAP and I’ll send the free guide + Discord. #trading #futures #vwap
Energy Spike Could Lift Eurozone Inflation to 2.3%
First scores on doors I've seen ... and it's boringly close to what we have been telling readers in the past week. At the current futures curve in oil, you get 2.3% in 2026 (roughly), with gas not doing much...
Future Prices Defy Norms: Oil Options Expose Gamma Paradox
Today's "Future prices are not like other prices" by @ByrneHobart is an outstanding preamble to tomorrow's moontower titled: oil options and the raw gamma paradox 🛢️🧩 a post that sniped me from whatever i planned to write about Byrne's post is free: https://t.co/ekmCXjtQQ1
Options‑implied Fed Hike Odds Surge to 23%
You get a different result from the CME tool (derived from a simple probability-weighted average) if you use options prices in the Atlanta Fed's tracker As of Friday, options prices implied a rate hike had risen to around 23%, from 8%...
Earnings Gap Propels Oracle Calls 119% Gains
i picked up a few $ORCL 4/17 $175 call options yesterday before the close & the pending earnings report... amazing how fast option prices can move with a ~+13% gap in the stock this morning... the calls i bought for...
Oracle Call Spread Bet Hinges on IGV Support
📺 $ORCL EARNINGS TRADE & WILL MONEY ROTATE TO $IGV? In this Short video, I go through my defined-risk earnings trade in $ORCL using a $160–$170 call spread that costs $2 and could return $8 if the stock closes above $170....
Futures Dip to Daily Lows, Market Stays Calm
Futures are at their lows of the day, but everything's quieted down since the start of the week https://t.co/sqcA2J1f9o
Nifty50 Futures Premium Signals Stable Market Conditions
Nifty50 March futures settled at...132 points premium over spot. >> Traditionally this reflects healthy implied financing (r − d) in the system. In simple terms, funding conditions are comfortable and there’s no aggressive demand to short futures. >> That usually aligns with...
Oil Swings $21 in Two Hours—Unprecedented Volatility
Absolute insanity: In just 2 hours, oil prices have now fallen -$10/barrel and risen +$11/barrel, with prices now nearing $90/barrel again. This is unprecedented volatility.
Massive IGV Put Purchase Signals Bearish Outlook
Software (IGV) buyer 40,000 August $80 puts $5.40 Oh god, what is Claude about to do next
Higher‑Vol Strategies Shift Burden, Damage Manager Track Record
A lot of people ask me for higher volatility alternatives for "capital efficiency" reasons. And on it's face, it makes sense. Instead of putting $100 in a 10% vol strategy, you can just put $25 in a 40% vol strategy. But there are...
Brent's Record Volatility Mirrors War Uncertainty
Brent becomes extremely volatile amid confusion about war’s duration Brent futures traded in a record daily range of more than $35 per barrel on March 9, as traders reacted to conflicting signals about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz...
Market Already Priced the Rally; Right‑tail Calls Unchanged
SPX is up 100 handles since Friday close. 10 Delta "right tail" 3 month calls are unchanged. The right tail was more than fully priced. If you are congratulating yourself for "calling" a taco/war cessation or whatever....
Mechanical Put Bounce Signals Rising Investor Risk
Nothing has changed: the bounce was predicted on mechanical put monetization NOT fundamentals. Now we wait for VIX to base & move higher as posted for clients on more active timeframes. ;-) But big picture, risk has only increased for investors....
Extreme Backwardation Signals Temporary, Overdone Oil Price Spike
You didn't have to be a genius to look at the extreme backwardation in the Futures curve for crude oil to call the current price spike temporary, and overdone. #CrudeOil