Buy Distant Futures at Discount, Earn Risk Premium
[looks at Brent curve] Gary Gorton voice: "investors can earn a risk premium by buying distant commodity futures at a discount to spot"
WTI Could Hit $115 If Gas Gains Replicate
If the front-month WTI crude oil future matches natural gas’s 100% gain in 2026 to its January peak, it would reach about $115 a barrel -- then what by the midterms? Gas has reversed all of those gains. Spiking crude can be...
Lag And
Hey energy experts, what's the lag, in days, from a change in wholesale gasoline futures to retail (AAA average) prices? And what's a good rule of thumb on the spread/mutiple between the two? (Answer in DM's if you prefer.)
Oil Futures Top $100 Amid Middle East Tensions
Oil futures surge above $100 for the first time since 2022 🚨 🛢️ Brent contract jumps more than 10% as the conflict in the Middle East continues https://t.co/KgPOv96YdC
Citi Advises Holding Off Equities Amid Soaring Oil
“We see no reason to actively add equity exposure at this time as risk/reward will improve from either price action or a path to de-escaltion forming:” Citi’s Kaiser. The oil VIX reached its highest level other than during COVID since...
TDEX Crash Put Hits 97th Percentile Amid Volatility Surge
OK. Pending apocalypse or local bottom? @Nations_Indexes TailDex ($TDEX aka crash put) hit 30 on Friday with $VOLI (ATM vol) at 22.58. TDEX level is 97th percentile and spread above VOLI also 97th percentile. You don't need to look far...
Bitcoin Poised for $1,400 CME Gap at Open
🚨 BITCOIN CME GAP Current price: $67,000 CME open: $68,400 As it stands, Bitcoin will open a sizeable gap tonight https://t.co/rOL85QHEJw
Deriving the 80% Straddle Rule Simplified
Moontower Sunday pitchfork CLAWback In this issue: 🌙half-baked AI thoughts 🌙making your own teacher 🌙a satisfying derivation of the 80% straddle rule https://t.co/K5xTbWQpU1 refs: @outlieroptions
Kalshi's Oil Futures: A Second‑Derivative Market Twist
Kalshi markets on oil futures is crazy because it’s a 2nd derivative. Current oil price-> CL futures (first derivative) -> Kalshi (2nd derivative). Leads to very odd dynamics if Kalshi markets get big enough
New Raise Model Guarantees Exit Options in Bear Markets
Understanding @flyingtulip_ new raise model; TLDR; Market Cap: $2k FDV: $175m Volume: $33.5m 2 weeks in (and brutal markets) and yet the token looks boring (by design). Volume is tiny (by design). Comparative projects that raised and TGE'd in the same time-frame are on average significantly...
30-Day VIX Futures vs SPX RV21 Comparison
And here's my version using $VIX, VX30 (constant maturity VIX futures) and SPX RV21 that's ~ 30 calendar days. https://t.co/e8dCY61qju
Diversify Now; Active Hedging Won’t Save a Sinking Portfolio
With vol high/skew high but OTM calls also high and with equities in a minor drawdown those with undiversified max long U.S. equity portfolios are whipping around "options" trade ideas as the solution. Looking for ways to hedge. ...
Short‑term OTM Calls Miss Right‑Tail Market Moves
If you sold long stocks on Friday and bought 10d 3 month calls at equal notional you are going to underperform badly in most right tail events. Doing it delta neutral is highly likely to get destroyed in most...
Early Iran Risk Warning Yields Record Oil Gains
Since my client warning, VIX has risen 70%. and because I warned two weeks ahead that IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN, clients got to take full advantage of every dollar of the largest weekly gain on record in data going...
VIX/VXV Spike Signals Near-Term Bottom, Upcoming Rally
The $VIX: $VXV ratio spiked to 1.07 on Friday. That's the biggest volatility spike since the April 2025 crash low. Last March it had an initial spike to 1.08, dropped to 0.90, then spiked to 1.27 in April, but this...
Stock Volatility Gap Hits 2008 Levels, Options Soar
Market stress is surging at a rapid pace: The spread between the average 9-month volatility of S&P 500 stocks and the S&P 500 index's 9-month volatility is up to 18 points, the highest since 2008. This spread has DOUBLED over the last...
Nifty50 Option Mispriced, Hints at Monday Move
One interesting thing I noticed in Friday’s EOD option chain for Nifty50 (10 Mar expiry)...🤔 >> Look at the marked Option, closing around ₹439.85. Based on basic OTM risk premium / volatility structure, this option’s theoretical fair value appears much higher... >>...
VIX Hits Highest Level Since April 2025 Tariff
VIX closed at its highest since the Apr'25 tariff (and above the +1 StD level).
Strait of Hormuz Closure Threat Triggers S&P Futures Drop
If Citrini publishes a substack post this weekend about an extended Strait of Hormuz closure scenario S&P futures are going to open Sunday night limit down huh
VIX Spikes Often Precede Stock Rebounds—Still Just Probabilities
The $VIX increased 48% this week, the 21st biggest weekly spike ever. What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes? Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average forward returns. Does this always happen? No. There are no certainties in markets,...
Simple Crowd‑contrarian Setups with Defined Risk Levels
So there's no exact playbook for trading against the crowd but I try to share some decent probability setups and wanted to attach notes to them. 1 thing I'd say is it doesn't need to be super complex, but you do...
Hyperliquid Open, Oil Perps Drive Weekend Price Discovery
It's the weekend and the TradExchanges' computers must caddy for their humans on the golf course. But @HyperliquidX is always open for trading. The oil perp CL-USDC is where price discovery will happen this weekend as bombs continue to fall...
VIX Backwardation Signals Market Tension Near S&P Peak
The VIX has entered backwardation with the S&P 500 only -3.65% off its 2026 high. $VIX $SPY $SPX https://t.co/WsMfvN6wRa
Oil Jumps 35%—Largest Weekly Gain Since 1983
Oil surges 35% this week for biggest gain in futures trading history dating back to 1983: CNBC $XLE $USO
Back‑end Oil Futures Boost Equities Despite Physical Short Squeeze
Andy makes a great point here around potential L/S positioning in the oil and gas space. I think chasing the physical commodities up a tree here is dangerous but I still really like oil and nat gas equities for two...
Market Direction Unknown; Prioritize System and Stop‑loss
No one knows the future direction of the stock market from here. What matters is the system and the stop-loss, whether pre-defined or imposed by some indicator. $SPX #ES_F
LevelTen Index Misreads Solar Prices, Not Actual Costs
Okay. I've been seeing this make the rounds. It is just a large misunderstanding of the second graph, to the extent that it's drawing the wrong conclusions. The price of electricity from solar and wind in the US *has* flatlined...
Elevated IV and Oil Prices Signal Upcoming Nifty Volatility
Nifty50 10 Mar option chain at today’s close shows ATM IV above 20. That means option premiums are already elevated and the market is pricing serious uncertainty...Add crude oil above $90/barrel, and the macro backdrop is getting tense.😬💥 High IV +...
Cboe Crude Oil Volatility Spikes to 2020 High
A Cboe measure of crude oil volatility has surged to its highest level since 2020 https://t.co/4FBZMvXK9Y
New Long and Short Positions Added This Morning
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: March 6, 2026 - The Long & The Short Of It..." Adding some longs & some shorts this A.M.... via The Lyons Share https://t.co/I3veVBLlHY https://t.co/AqMtKshBK1
MRVL Close Call Spreads Jump 80%
Members MRVL - Close Call Spreads 5.40, +80%, pretty good pick in this mess ha
VIX Mock Rally Lifts
$VIX Mock cheer for COR1M, up from the dead/all time lows during earnings season to last spring and last Nov levels https://t.co/Ykw6arRCk3
MRVL Put Spread Likely to Expire Worthless
$MRVL "Trade Idea 1: Buy the March 6 Expiry 75/72 1×2 Put Spread for a 5 cent credit.' a bust, looks to expire
Earn Credit by Selling 980/967.5 Put
$COST "Trade Idea 1: Buy the March 6 Expiry 980/967.50 1×2 Put Spread for a 5 cent credit." sell to close a 980/967.50 put spread on any strentght in stock. Let IV fall then can buy to close remaining...
VIX Spikes 12%—Fear Hits All at Once
VIX at 23.75. Up 12% in a single session. Two weeks ago it was under 18. Fear doesn't arrive gradually. It arrives all at once. And we're not even past the first act. https://t.co/7Fy3joZKAi
Inelastic Demand Fuels Strong Futures; Grains, Energy Steady
Futures with the strongest uptrends are the ones with inelastic demand curves...now the consumer will have less disposable income than ever...grains and energies expected to keep a steady bid
Billions in BTC Options Expiring, Could Spark Volatility
TODAY, BTC OPTIONS WORTH $2.2 BILLION ARE EXPIRING 👀 Just like last week, we might see volatility again - especially if there are any developments in the Middle East. But the largest expiration, worth around $13 BILLION, is expected at the end...
Individual Stocks Show Triple the Index’s Volatility
"The average stock within the index has been nearly three times as volatile as the index itself (and the implied vol spread suggests the options market believes this will persist)." -GS Pasquariello via ZH
Gasoline Futures Near $2.70, Pump Prices Set to Hit $3.65
RBOB gasoline futures near $2.70.. implying $3.65 at the pump soon... close to the highest level since mid-2022 $RB_F $UGA @teconomics https://t.co/vQA49bLeZr
Silver Rally Driven by Speculation, Not Fundamentals
At the time this trade had zero catalysts other than $JPM calling for $30 and everyone chasing $Silver at 110+. It's never hwere the crowd is looking/chasing and if you study the thread there were months of absolutely nothing happening outside...
Low Volatility Seeds Future Turbulence; Powell‑Trained Models Miss Warsh
Low vol begets high vol, to paraphrase Minsky. Systems trained on Powell, and they all have been trained on Powell, will struggle to interpret Warsh… especially as he himself will struggle with the same.
Robinhood Launches Independent Prediction Markets Beyond Kalshi
Robinhood paved the way recently to launch its own prediction markets, outside of Kalshi https://t.co/AbYwhSNbqm
DraftKings Eyes Prediction Markets for 10‑30% Higher Margins
Draftkings is getting into prediction markets "Because prediction markets aren’t subject to state taxes, they are expected to have margins that are 10 to 30 percentage points higher than traditional sports betting" https://t.co/NZkaOy523j https://t.co/jXiPNCN8da
ES_F Weekly Hits 1.618 Extension, AVWAP at 6460
$ES_F bigger picture, weekly, still amazing topped right at the 1.618 extension, the 1.382 sits at lower value edge now, 6682.5, below that it gets real thin back to 6125 with AVWAP off 2025 low at 6460 important too https://t.co/dOkIMQUPwK
Markets Tumble $800B as Volatility Surges 70%
Brutal day, the S&P 500 has wiped out around $800 billion in market cap, falling 1.4%. The Dow Jones is having its worst day of 2026, down over 2% 📉 Meanwhile the VIX (volatility index) is up 17% and is now...
Record Hedge Activity Signals Unprecedented Investor Fear
🚨Investors are hedging against a market crash at a record pace: Combined put open interest in credit ETFs, $HYG, $LQD, $JNK, and $BKLN, plus call open interest in the Treasury ETF, $TLT, is up to a record 15.9 million contracts. This has...
High VIX Signals Tough Swing Trades, Stay Nimble
observation $VIX currently 25.18 makes for hard environment for swing trading and must stay nimble if day trading. My opinion, your wallet.
UST Funding Strain Grows as 30‑Year Swap Spread Hits
UST funding pressure starting to ramp up as swap spreads narrow 3-4 bps across the curve. 30y tenor now less than -78 bps https://t.co/yWt8DEzUEr
Marvell Options Signal ~$11 Move, 89.5% Volatility
Live look at $MRVL chart ahead of its scheduled earnings today. Options expiring March 20th show an implied volatility reading of 89.5%, which is about a (+/-) $11.41 move from the underlying stock.
Geopolitics Ignored by HFT, Active Management Becomes Vital
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...