Brent‑WTI Spread Shifts Slowly; Short‑term Moves Are Noise
For those of you trying to figure out what's going on with the Brent-WTI spread. Let me point out an old gem that helps explain it. - Different delivery date windows - Different contract expiration dates - When things are volatile, individual day spread movements are noise - A durable, prolonged, and clear change in the Brent-WTI spread would take time https://t.co/cRU7cVzATx A classic from me and @Barron_Energy
YPF
YPF now seeing buyers 3500 May $42 calls for $3.15 to $3.20, nice run already from last week write up https://t.co/4fVGR5BExA
Homebuilders, High‑Yield Credit, World Index Lag Volatility
Worst asset performers relative to their own vols in the past month on my watchlist Homebuilders, high yield credit, world equity index https://t.co/gpd005m2Yi
Revenue Seasonality Drives Market Volatility, Explore Data Insights
Moontower Thursday 🌙Sold some puts on a turd so then I needed to like look at it and stuff 🌙Exploring the link between revenue seasonality and volatility You'll find several ways of looking at data to test your own ideas. https://t.co/nO8SPhrkJm https://t.co/MMfM6hW9aP
Mass
$GLD put of the day, 450 opex from $1-30, inciting a dealer dumpathon ON https://t.co/jU8qmVi9bh
VIX Plunge Signals Rising Market Complacency Amid Stress
$VIX: 27.85 on March 13. 21.51 now. A 6+ point collapse in one week while oil trades near $100, the Fed just held, and private credit is cracking. Complacency doesn't announce itself. It just shows up in the $VIX. https://t.co/QOUSwv6YZ0
Massive UCO Call Purchase Signals $300 Gas Surge
Ultra Crude (UCO) buyer 1000 October $55 calls $9.80 to $10.50 Oh boy... $300 tank fill up incoming
Goldman, JPMorgan Enable Hedge Funds to Short Private Credit
Goldman and JPMorgan are among investment banks offering hedge fund clients ways to bet against the $1.8 trillion private credit market https://t.co/oylGukMJd0
Call Spread Fails, Roll Down 425 Put
$MU "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 465/475 Call Spread ($5.00) and sell the March 425 Put for 35 cents." call spread a bust, may need to roll puts down and out
Gold Futures Extend Downward Trend, Key Support Holds
GC: overnight downside follow-through with more range expansion. Key reference point still in play. https://t.co/HJ2JZL0ipm
RBOB Futures Signal $4.10 AAA Gas Price Soon
$3.19 RBOB gasoline futures imply $4.10 AAA average gas price in a couple weeks https://t.co/7IwQpsyBoY
Pure Gamma Bet on Sensex 74500 CE Requires Immediate Upside
Thinking of going long Sensex 74500 CE (today’s expiry) @ ~620, but let’s be real. 🧐 This option already spiked to 1158 and cooled to 620, so most of the gamma + IV expansion is already done.... Now it’s a pure gamma...
War’s Turmoil Can’t Shake the VIX’s Absurdity
For all the bad news that has come out of the war - the Vix remains a joke
Nifty50 Options Signal 31% Weekly Volatility, Demand Zone 23100‑228
In these uncertain times, options data tells a deeper story. Plugged today’s Nifty50 weekly options into my model, it’s pricing => 31% IV (annualized) for nxt 7 days...😳🔥 >> Structure suggests 23100 to 22800 as a strong demand zone, but remember,...
Hot CPI Triggers Price Discovery, No Fade—Execute Now
266 points on NQ. 💰 Hot CPI → price discovery → no fade. Just execution. Most traders fight this move. I press it. Comment “I’m in” and I’ll send the setup 📩 #vwap #futurestrading #tradingstrategy
Burning Puts Unintentionally Fuels the Global Economy
4400 likes - all you people burning puts are supporting the global economy i thank you for your service
Equity Put/Call Ratio Peaks at 1.11, Highest Since April 2024
$CPCE - The CBOE equity put/call ratio spiked to 1.11, its highest level since April 2024. The 10 day moving average of the ratio is now at 0.73 which is higher than it was at April 2025 low. The last...
Big OTM Call Surge Hits Biotech TERN at $55
That biotech $TERN that folks were murmuring about days ago getting some bigly OTM call buying in the March $55 strike Think it was this nutty guy https://t.co/YIWYwL0845
Oil Backwardation Signals Temporary Shock; BTC Ties to Dollar
The heatmap below shows that the oil futures curve remains heavily backwardated, indicating that the energy market believes that the current oil shock is a temporary supply problem that will get fixed. That’s probably correct but the question is how...
Trade Micro Nasdaq Futures for Superior Risk Management
Most traders jump straight into Nasdaq mini contracts and struggle with risk management and stop loss placement. Trading Micro Nasdaq futures (MNQ) allows for better position sizing, tighter stop losses, and cleaner trade management. Smaller size makes it easier to hold through...
Volatility Becomes an Asset When You Master It
📈 #Volatility is not a dirty word when you know how to use it... Kevin Davitt, Head of @Nasdaq Index Options Content, joins Dan Nathan & @GuyAdami on MRKT Call https://t.co/4z3jGYKguV
VIX Poised for New Highs as SP, Dow Lead
would love to see VIX make new highs in afternoon. So far SP and DOW only ones to take out PDL, though. https://t.co/uw5945fvVN
Futures Curve Shows Prices, Not Predictions
I know I am piling on here, but a reminder to those of you just tuning into oil markets... The Futures Curve is NOT a forecast... https://t.co/gyYIbj3Xqa
MU Release Early, QQQ/SMH Traders Get Spike Window
$MU $SMH MU release in Dec was before 4:15, so QQQ/SMH option slingers will have time to play the spike party before they close https://t.co/S4f0jns98f
Live: March OPEX Analyzes FOMC, Options & Expiration Impact
Don't miss March OPEX Live, today at 4:30pm ET. Join us for a breakdown of today’s FOMC reaction, options pricing in the face of global conflict, and why Friday’s expiration could impact markets. Join us live at: https://t.co/55HHarmCC7
Volatility Is Volatile: Expect Choppy, Unpredictable Paths
No clue if markets go up, down, or sideways. But throughout this recent debacle, it has been clear to me that a lot of folks do not realize that volatility is very… well….volatile. When people look at charts and data from...
Using AVWAP to Manage Puts and Hedge Positions
$IBIT - I know it's a messy looking chart...but this is how I'm managing my puts (noted yesterday). Get above that AVWAP - ill close it. *Also functioning as a hedge against my $IGV and $COIN positions. https://t.co/pSBzB90JwN
Markets Signal Persistent Oil Shock Beyond Short-Term
The market is gradually pricing in that this is more than a short-term oil shock. Below: white: oil futures curve, current blue: oil futures curve, a week ago orange: oil futures curve, 6 months ago https://t.co/8wQF3jaa8y
Sell March LULU Strangle for Credit, Await IV Drop
$LULU "Trade Idea 4: Sell the March 140/187.50 Strangle for a $2.20 credit.' looks to expire, let IV fall then can buy to close or watch
12‑Month Oil Futures Surge Past March Spike
Oil for delivery in 12 months is now way above its spike on March 9. Even if the futures curve were a market forecast of prices -- which as @Rory_Johnston will remind us, it is absolutely not -- that forward...
Early Position Management Saves Traders as SPX Swings
$spx futures from +35 to -25 It’s good to get up early and manage ur positions. $spy chart https://t.co/jgRx8rsmyg
US Supply Surge Could Pull WTI Back to $53
What Stops WTI Crude From Reverting Toward $53? The December WTI crude oil future (Dec26), which becomes front-month just before the midterms, was at roughly $76 a barrel on March 17 and may revert toward $53. Before the closing of the...
Natural Gas Likely to Stabilize Around $3‑$5
Natural Gas $3 or $5 Near Year-End? Risks Appear to Lean Lower - The second consecutive colder-than-normal winter pushed the front US natural gas future to a high of $7.83 per MMBtus in January, and the price near $3 on...
U.S. Shouldn't Manipulate Oil Prices via Market Intervention
COLUMN: The US shouldn't try to influence energy prices by intervening in the financial market for oil. "... The oil futures and options market isn’t a casino where the US government can self-appoint itself as the house that always wins..." @Opinion...
Warrant Sold at Deep Discount, Enriching Hedge Fund, Hurting Shareholders
Unlike a convert which sells a warrant at a relatively fair implied volatility and monetizes that vol for the benefit of existing shareholder. This atrocious deal sold the warrant at a massive massive discount to fair implied volatility and...
Read Fed Moves Through Positioning, Not Surface Reaction
Great Gamma chart and Fed Day point by Captain Craig @t1alpha "In that context, any outsized reaction around the Fed should first be viewed through the lens of positioning first rather than taken at face value" https://t.co/cnuGZLnhYJ
Heating Oil Prices Near $4, Spiking From Middle East Tensions
If you heat with oil you are exposed to sky-high heating oil prices. US heating oil futures are near $4 per gallon and prices have almost doubled since February, driven by escalating disruption linked to the war in Iran and...
China’s State Banks Shift Forward FX Book Post‑2010
The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT
Investors Bet on Biofuels Amid Sky‑High Gas Prices
Call positioning continues across the full spectrum of Biofuel names w/ gasoline prices sky high and 45Z tax credits in focus ADM BG DAR FF GPRE ANDE Could see junky plays GEVO AMTX run as well
NQ's 10bps Moves Rare: Only 1.6% Occurrence
In the last 2 hours we only had 2 candles greater than 20 points in NQ that basically means that we only 10bps moves just 1.6% of the time this afternoon. These are the days that try scalpers souls https://t.co/UBos7R9C8l
RBOB Gasoline Futures Near Last Week’s Spike High
RBOB gasoline futures $3.12 - that's very close to the spike high Sunday night last week https://t.co/x2eJ04zPio
Jawboning Can Crush Oil Futures, Physical Markets Needed
Oil futures having a hard time rising much in anticipation of the scarcity barreling down toward us all when—as we saw last week—jawboning can dump prices by $10 and blow folks out We'll need physical markets to drag paper barrels to...
Oil Chart Hints at Rising Inflation Pressures
$USO There's a lot going on behind the CL chart, lots of inflationary stuff we will see as the year goes on https://t.co/QQRYWzhzi2
$1.2T OPEX Expiration Looms Amid Sky‑High Vols
Friday's OPEX has $1.2 trillion in delta notional set to expire. Given highly elevated vols, this expiration could be highly impactful. Don't miss our March OPEX analysis at 1pm ET tomorrow: https://t.co/55HHarmCC7
Vol up From March 6, Still Below February 27 Levels
Vol through the lens of @CBOE vol indices: better than 3/6; not as good as 2/27; pesky 9-day VIX refusing to cooperate. https://t.co/isod6NdR6y
Bull Spreads (SN/SX) Likely to Reach New Highs
And for what it’s worth I just think the bull spreads are (sn/sx) just shaking the trees right now. I expect new highs in that spread at some point. Not a recommendation and there is a risk of loss in...
Buy DOCU Call
$DOCU "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 47.50/48 Call Spread (95 cents) and sell the March 41.50 Put for 30 cents." sell to close call spread on any weakness, puts expire.
Nvidia's AI Boom Keeps Stock Range‑Bound; Avoid MU Earnings Risks
📺 RANGE COMPRESSION IN $NVDA, EARNINGS RISK IN $MU $NVDA raised its AI outlook to roughly $1 trillion in demand/revenue visibility through 2027, effectively doubling prior expectations and reinforcing the long-term AI bull case. Despite that, Nvidia is still range-bound and struggling...
Scale Position Size with Volatility for Consistent Futures Trading
Day 8 running my automated trading strategy on Micro Nasdaq futures (MNQ). Two clean trades. Market was choppy, so position size was reduced to 2 MNQ contracts to control risk and stay consistent. Same rule based execution. Same entry confirmation. No overtrading. Adjusting position size based...
Brent Drops Sharply; Hormuz Ship Theory Seems Dubious
I am normally not a big fan of conspiracy theories to explain market phenomena. But #Brent futures slid from an intraday high of just over $106 to settle at $100.21 on Monday. The only “explanation” I can find is “because some...