April Short Puts Signal Bearish Pressure on KKR, ARES
$KKR $ARES starting to see some April opening short puts Need that group to stabilize, was my first red signal a few weeks ago
Oracle's CDS Gains Vanish After Equity Funding Shift
Pretty remarkable that the “we’re raising half the money via equity” improvement in Oracle’s 5Y CDS completely reversed (and then some) so quickly https://t.co/E8Qzqv4pMx
SPX Futures Slip, 6859 Key Support Test
$SPX futures were -30 as 6915 failed to hold, and now we see if 6859 (yesterday’s low) holds or not. Tricky action—lots of range-type trades, but no real traction. https://t.co/rUISq4Qyt5
Market Down, Yet Breadth Shows Unexpected Green Strength
Yesterday was a down day for SPX and Naz Comp. So what is all this green on my screen of breadth numbers? https://t.co/Sww1AmkNJo
SPY Stalls at 693, Market Range Stagnates
Good morning. Mixed markets around the World. $spx futures -17 $spy got rejected at $693 to break $690 to see $684 area. We’ll see if they holds, or not. Let’s end the week making the right decisions This range...
20% ETH Swing Triggers $4‑5B in Liquidations
If #ETH makes a 20% pump, approximately $4.34B in short positions will be liquidated. If ETH sees a 20% dump, around $4.64B in long positions will be liquidated. https://t.co/ZAvjYl247Q
Automated Futures Strategy Nets $211 on Day One
Day 1 of running my automated futures trading strategy on MNQ. 3 contracts executed. 1 scalp taken. All trades followed predefined entry and risk management rules. Session result: $211. No hesitation. No moving stops. No discretionary overrides. This is the same futures trading strategy converted into a rule...
Futures and Microsoft Dip After XYZ Cuts, ZS Earnings
Back to the numbers... Stock futures and $MSFT (good job @hedgeye for highlighting Mr. Softee's share price weakness over the last week while the shows were talking about its "value") move lower after the close after $XYZ job reduction...
CRM Hits Highs, Calls Surge Like WDAY
$CRM highs, call fly trade up big and similar to WDAY gets a positive reaction
Funds Defend Soybean Longs, Holding Above $11
Funds defending that long position in #soybeans like crazy. 11.55 in May looks like the area it needs to keep closing above for now.
Master Bad Beat Management with Simple Position Sizing
Moontower for today... 🌙options policework A highly useful and approachable post (well that claim is for you to decide) for deconstructing a bad beat, how to manage the position, and basic sizing framework https://t.co/lriLcCfSTC https://t.co/zBmPgdFBWn
Trade Probabilities, Not Emotions, Using Deviation Bands
Stop guessing. Start trading probabilities. 📈 Price Wave Deviation Bands show you when price is statistically stretched — and when mean reversion or expansion is likely. This is how we trade structure, not emotion. Comment TOOLKIT 🧰 #daytrading #vwap #futures
VIX Holds Above $20, Market Still Unsettled
VIX rejecting $20 and market curling a bit Not out of the woods yet need to fade back down under $19
Vol Market Is Ridiculously Easy—Trade While It Lasts
$VIX You have to love this mkt, it's so fricken stupid, it's so easy to trade vol, enjoy it while it lasts https://t.co/39f4OYBDnn
Low Volatility and High Beta Lead Monthly Returns
Interesting seeing Low Volatility and High Beta as the best performing factors over the last month. I don't recall seeing these two at the top together very often. https://t.co/K79dkjqxxF
Hedged Market Faces Risk‑On Tailwind, VIX May Surge
Folks still pretty hedged up from what I can see. A bit of a risk-on tailwind in the VIX term structure. Could we see a move higher with some FOMO? https://t.co/UAZfhySv15 https://t.co/7zeEui58Ho
From Twitter Friends to Daily Market Partners
Sean and I met almost 20 years ago right here on Twitter @X. Today we get to trade markets together every day. What first started here grew into what you now see in the @StockMktTV community. Come hear how @OptionsSean...
Buy Feb 27 Call Spread, Sell 146 Put
$SNOW "Trade Idea 2: Buy the February 27 Expiry 167.50/172.50 Call Spread ($2.75) and sell the February 27 Expiry 146 Put for 45 cents." puts ecpire, sell call spread near $5 or watch to max out Friday
Options Positioning Can Mute or Delay Earnings Moves
Sometimes, earnings moves are muted or delayed due to positioning in the options market. I don't know why more people don't talk about this?
NVDA Call Spread and Put Sell Trade Strategy
$NVDA "Trade Idea 2: Buy the February 27 Expiry 197.50/202.50 Call Spread ($2.10) and sell the February 27 Expiry 185 Put for 15 cents." puts expire, sell call spread on any weakness in stock price.
Soybeans Overextended; Funds Defend Upper Keltner Band
And for what it's worth, I even think the #soybeans are over extended here. Funds defended right at the upper keltner band yesterday, but wouldn't take much of a break to get below it leading to a possible break....
BTC Dip Under $65K Erases $500M in Leveraged Positions
According to Coinglass data, #BTC drop below $65K wiped out $500M in leveraged positions. https://t.co/H196RV5gTF
Record $50B ETF Put Wave Signals AI Fear
Record Put Trading on ETFs Seen as AI Victims From BBG: “Almost $50 billion in notional put trading so far this month, significantly outpacing other episodes over the past two decades.” “Themes such as senior loans, consumer exposure, financials and health care. The...
Software Vols Drop Post‑Earnings, Bullish Call Shift
Viral Blog Bottoms? If you look at the software vols, we obviously still see some very high IV Ranks but those should come down today now that some earnings have passed. We'd argue lower IVs in this space generates a bullish...
Jane Street’s Friday Puts Trigger Monday BTC Crashes
What the scum at Jane Street was probably doing was buying puts on $IBIT on a Friday and then crucifying $BTC when US markets opened up on Monday. That is the returns for $BTC on every Monday in 2026 https://t.co/h4GTmfLL7O
Big‑Cap S&P Leaders 50% More Volatile Than Index
The top 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are 50% more volatile than the S&P 500 itself right now. Important for risk... but more important for alpha right now. https://t.co/yqBR2QU8nK
Volatility Drops Across Board Despite Apparent Front Pressure
Yesterday SLV vols were down with the small down day...today vols are down across the board on the uptick. Unexpected. These are pct changes in the vols. It appears like the fronts are getting hit harder. But they're not... https://t.co/Py3JzocrxE
Python Reduces Portfolio Optimization to Four Lines
Stop trading with Excel. Start trading with Python. Portfolio optimization is literally 4 lines of Python code:
Coinbase Options Play: Low‑Risk Bet on Potential 10× Upside
of all the stocks beat up lately, Coinbase $COIN is one of those names... if we zoom out to the weekly we can see it found support in this area multiple times before... i'd been tinkering with options as a...
Crude Oil Bullish Order Block, Yet No Range Expansion
CL had OD/ID BO pattern, but no range expansion (yet)...significant zone comes in well below. https://t.co/vLjGgmEMpf
Front-Month Futures Dip, Back Months Stay Premium Amid Elections
Interesting (to me anyway) that the front months are coming down from the recent highs, but the back months are holding their premium. Mid-term elections? https://t.co/I5WS2ewLoF
RBOB Gas Futures Dip 1%, Pump Prices Near $3
RBOB gasoline futures down 1% YoY... very likely to turn up YoY in the weeks ahead... $3 pump prices absolutely coming $UGA $RB_F https://t.co/H5sX1paGVU
Buy March Call Calendar, Sell Feb Put
$LOW "Trade Idea 3: Buy the February 27 Expiry/March 295 Call Calendar ($3.10) and sell the February 27 Expiry 270 Put for 90 cents." Feb calls expire, puts on edge, may need to roll down and out. Leaves a...
VIX Below $19 Signals Bull Market, Nvidia Earnings Await
Good morning, That was prob one of the funniest SOTU's ever 🤣 but with it the vix rejected $20 and we saw the market get bullish & now the final boss...Nvidia's earnings which I'll post the call and put at 3...
Market Poised at Resistance Ahead of Nvidia Earnings
📺 THE MARKET IS COILED AT RESISTANCE AHEAD OF $NVDA $SPY is still trading within a clearly defined range, around $689, just below the $690 resistance. The key question today: do we clear $688.35–$690 before Nvidia earnings, or does the market...
Inside Hedge Funds' Secret Method for Detecting Market Regimes
The secret hedge funds use to detect market regimes... A 37 page PDF reveals everything:
Software Volatility Premium May Boost SPX to 7k
CRM and NVDA report tonight. I think the VRP in software stocks is interesting, as the vol is now higher that during the Apr 24 crash. Options spreads could do well even if the stocks disappoint. You can see this in...
SPX Futures Hold, Target 6916 Before NVDA Earnings
$SPX futures are up 18 after the range held again yesterday, with 6815 proving support. Now we see if it can clear 6916 and hold it ahead of $NVDA earnings tonight, with the top end of the range at 6993–7002....
Holding Nifty Call Until Expiry If Spot >25500
Bought Nifty 2nd March 25600 CE....🔥 Avg: 191.40. Currently in loss. Risky trade, no denial. >> Plan is simple: holding till expiry or target as long as Nifty spot sustains above 25500 on DCB. Now it’s about structure, not emotions. Let’s see how the market...
Markets Stay Flat Until Friday; $65K Break Sparks Upside
I think that the markets will remain boring until Friday. A tremendous options expiry will take place, which probably puts an hold on the markets currently for #Bitcoin, and especially $ETH. Break $65K would be a strong trigger for upside. https://t.co/bSkofNzse4
Betting Market Exposes FDV Irrelevance, Validates Model Floor
Didn't want to mention or interact with this at all till after it was done, but this kind of betting definitely adds a weird angle to launching a project, we had so many people in discord asking about FDV that...
Billions in FX Options Expire Tomorrow Across Major Currencies
Notable FX option expirations tomorrow: 2.9 bln euros at $1.18 $2.85 bln at JPY156 A$2.8 bln at $0.7000 and A$2.5 bln at $0.7100 $470 mln at CAD1.37 GBP450 mln at $1.3550 $1 bln MXN17.29-MXN17.30 Listed on DTCC https://t.co/bSx6eAhEKQ
Leveraged ETFs Fees Rising, Unaffected by Vanguard Effect
Leveraged ETFs: The Last Stronghold of the 1% Fee.. check out how the asset-weighted avg fee of 2x ETFs is actually going UP. Only category totally immune from Vanguard Effect, which explains the $1b in ann revenue and the torrent...
Socratic Walk‑Through Reveals Hidden Options and Premium Logic
Today's spaced repetition is a socratic walk-thru of a situation where you could spot a hidden option AND also realize when something that looks "wrong" makes sense (in this case the premium to NAV)
Build a Mini Hedge Fund Using Python Algorithms
How to create your own "mini" hedge fund with algorithmic trading and Python A thread 🧵
UVIX Lags as VIX Jumps Over 7 Points
$VIX up more than 7 points from the low on Christmas Eve. 2x long vol (UVIX) actually dropped for the first part of the $VIX move higher and is up only a measly 11% overall. https://t.co/Id9MP45k4L
Buy 380/385 Call Spread, Sell 360 Put, Target $5
$HD "Trade Idea 2: Buy the February 27 Expiry 380/385 Call Spread ($3.X.05) and sell the February 27 Expiry 360 Put for 30 cents." puts expire. Sell to close call spread near $5 or watch to max out Friday
Mean‑Reversion Signals Deliver 22% YTD Gains
$ES_F Mean-reversion signals. No signal after yesterdays' close. +22% YTD, +50.6% since inception on May 21, 2025. One contract/$50K. Strategy is free for mean-reversion subscribers. Link in reply below. 👇
SPX Volatility Rises, Skew Hits Year‑to‑Date Highs
"We are already starting to see stress build in the derivatives market. $SPX fixed strike volatility has risen by roughly 1.5 vol points across the curve, while $SPX put call skew remains near its year-to-date highs" @t1alpha https://t.co/wXfaVxC4VW
BTC Historically Fills CME Gaps 95% of the Time
Historically, #BTC has filled its CME gap in 95% of cases. Will it close it this time? https://t.co/MN9XIT2uVx