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A Rule of Thumb Is Not a Plan

The article warns that retirement‑planning formulas and withdrawal‑rate rules of thumb are often over‑relied upon, despite being based on backward‑looking back‑tests. It argues that such generic models ignore individual spending patterns, health costs, inflation, and tax changes that vary over a retiree’s thirty‑year horizon. Instead, the author urges building a realistic, life‑stage cash‑flow picture before selecting an asset allocation. Ultimately, personalized planning, not academic shortcuts, should drive retirement strategy.