Know What's Happening in American Stocks
Know What's Happening in American Stocks
S&P 500 may find a 6,000 floor by May, analyst says
Analyst Mark Hulbert predicts the S&P 500 could settle around 6,000 by May, marking the low point of the current market correction. He cautions that the brief rally on March 31 and April 1 was typical of weak markets and may not indicate a lasting recovery.
GitLab (GTLB) heads into its quarterly earnings call at 4:05 pm, with an implied 15% price move priced in by the market. The stock has tumbled 50% since the end of October and now trades at roughly three times forward revenue, reflecting several sell‑side downgrades tied to concerns over Claude AI competition. Despite low guidance, software peers have demonstrated positive price reactions to mixed results, and the market typically rewards revenue beats of 2‑4%.
Global markets are at or near all-time highs, supported by strong earnings growth around the world. The rest of the world is outperforming the US on a combination of better earnings growth, competitive payout ratios, and lower valuations. As such,...
Updated chart of our 1-variable stock market. This is how markets behave during exogenous shocks - stocks need oil to peak. Aftermath eco forecasts rarely matter. Same thing happened last year, but with trade uncertainty. Need something to the...
The dollar continues to function as a global safe‑haven asset even amid acute crises, reaffirming its appeal to risk‑averse investors. Simultaneously, elevated U.S. Treasury yields are drawing capital despite lingering concerns over fiscal deficits and policy uncertainty. Market data shows...
As always, risk management is paramount. In a market under distribution, tightening stops and prioritizing capital preservation isn’t just prudent — it’s essential. When the tape refuses to reward low-risk setups and breakouts fail to follow through, discipline becomes your greatest...
NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on...
On Monday the S&P 500 closed essentially flat after permabulls rushed in on the opening dip, echoing Michael Burry’s “greatest buy‑the‑dip generation” claim. The optimism was short‑lived as escalating tensions in Iran prompted a market rethink. The author warns that...
$SPY trading near the bottom of its multi-month consolidation range. A move below 670.00 could drive the entire market lower.
The last two years have not been demanding for the bulls. But genius is a rising market. Large portfolio and individual stock drawdowns may emerge. (Already, in the case of $CRM and software, as well as other sectors -- individual...
The episode analyzes how the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict is triggering a fresh energy crisis, especially in Europe, where gas spot prices have surged 70% and oil is trading above $80 per barrel. Hosts discuss market reactions: a brief rally in...
From The Wall Street Journal: “Market ‘dispersion’ is hitting levels not seen in decades as investors sort AI winners from losers.” (Recall that Dispersion — both within and across sectors and economies — is one of the three key themes I’ve...
$VLO rising to near nose-bleed territory in the short run, but w/ Crude likely to approach high 70's before a peak, i expect another 1-2 weeks of strength out of VLO before this stalls out @IBDinvestors @marketsurge Big push...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains a 30‑stock, price‑weighted index that dates back to its 1896 origins and now spans eight major U.S. sectors. Its narrow composition makes it simple to track, but the price‑weighting gives disproportionate influence to high‑priced...
Top 10 charts I’m watching for March 👀📊 My latest show on @StockCharts TV covers some key technical themes: ✅ Stocks that have already started to break out (like $MPC and $JBL) 👀 Big earnings setups with divergences (hello $TGT) ⚖️ Magnificent 7 at...
ISM vs Bitcoin relationship is more correlation than causation. The difference today compared to past cycles is credit spreads were wide to start the PMI rebound, due to prior growth scares that led to risk off environments. Since 2022, spreads...
$igv held $80 and made a higher low like many Software names including $msft $now $orcl. For tactical Cash flow
Yes. Pretty amazing that $spy reclaimed $675 to relieve some pressure. Now it’s $682+ to manage
Joining @CNBCTheExchange in an hour to discuss market volatility, $SPX, and what the pullback in former leaders like $MU signals for semis #fairleadstrategies
Morning reaction up was best play of the day...now what? No leadership shares making new highs on the day (T and VZ do not count.) Close under or over 6800? Market rarely pulls same move two days in...
Some software went green again and some of them keep making higher lows $msft $igv $now
Probably 15% to 20% coming on the downside The problem is that 20% can become a complete rout https://t.co/7zx4utMhwU
Risk is off today: S&P 500 -2.2% Bitcoin -2.2% Nasdaq 100 -2.4% R2000 -3.4% Gold -4.7% EAFE -4.9% Emerging Mkts -6.7% Silver -8.9%
Bond Volatility winners $TW $MKTX also always a good market hedge / indicator of trouble coming
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
It is what it is, weakness in February and the early parts of March are quite common the past two decades. We've been saying expect a banana peel and we are on it. https://t.co/fTK460vLTF
Good reminder that we just had the smallest first two month range EVER for the S&P 500. Tight ranges don't last forever. https://t.co/4UYArPODOU
seeing the S&P 500 $SPX % stocks at 52-week highs increase again... remember sector rotation is a healthy thing and if you're going to be negative on stocks, you'd better show me the equal-weighted index is bearish (hint: it's not)......
An interesting study for someone good with that kind of thing... Chart $CBOE relative strength breakouts vs. the market as an inflection point to market trends Seems CBOE showing rel. strength tends to always precede market weakness as options volumes surge
Here is the latest 7-day rolling number from the Strait of Hormuz. Impacted? Yes. Closed? No. https://t.co/paTmzStHh6
$ZD with a $1.5B market cap sold a unit to $ACN for $1.2B cash this morning
Everyone assuming the Oil move is inflationary. An Oil spike historically more often than not precedes equity tail events and economic recessions. Why? Speed of Oil move is deflationary shock.
IMPACT @t1alpha The 3 stocks that drove 25% of yesterday's intraday rally are all signaling Bearish TREND @Hedgeye That's not good. $NVDA $MSFT $PLTR https://t.co/AzTRbxG3Kq
"1-month 25 delta skew reached its highest level since late 2021, reflecting elevated anxiety" -Captain Craig @t1alpha https://t.co/6wFr4T9ewz
Good morning, Mostly Deep Red Arrows around the World as Geopolitical tensions spread thru 9 Countries. $spx futures -120 Looks like we will be right around big important range area. $spy $675ish https://t.co/S9yXkXPEy9
As I warned yesterday, $SPY was teetering on a @Hedgeye TREND Breakdown - let's see if it confirms
This 19-Year Chart of Stock Markets Really Matters Right Now (here's why) https://t.co/TEzNGq0NTV [VIDEO] #stockmarket #SP500 #dowjones
I'll be on with @MariaBartiromo tomorrow am- 7:10 EST on @FoxBusiness discussing the surge in cross-asset volatility given the Iran Strike & what it means for markets
Monday’s Market Playbook: 45 ETF Positions, 95 Stock Ideas & Today’s Buy/Sell Levels https://t.co/Pc5C1TTVu1 via @hedgeye
“Right now, the economy is doing fine, asset prices are high…I think the probabilities of something going south are more than other people think..I think inflation will cause the economic downturn:” JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon https://t.co/xB4HN6ITSk
“Energy prices need to reflect a security premium….Every commodity that must cross a border will carry the cost of the oldest lesson in political economy: security comes first:” Carlyle’s James Stavridis & Jeff Currie https://t.co/wIF8jevdyM
Old Wall Broker comments: "The feedback we consistently heard was the 'subsectors I thought would o/p or u/p to start the day have done the complete opposite" #Iran
In this environment, that'll do it $COHR - all a company needs to do is show a rev acceleratiion while the other tech companies are decelerating
Crude oil spiked, $VIX pushed > 20… and $SPX finished basically flat. What does a “gap-and-fade” day say about risk? Plus: credit spreads, oil overbought signals, $NVDA at the 200D, and #Bitcoin teasing 70K. https://t.co/OFf21HIk5V https://t.co/0TzcIDfamB
All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are now down on the year and underperforming the S&P 500. Video: https://t.co/VjMx0vXyKp
$SPX keeps defending its 100 day MA on a closing basis, though I think it's likely to close below it by the end of the week. When it closes below the 100 DMA the next downside target will be the...
We remain long of Oil in $BNO terms and short of the US Consumer via $XLY https://t.co/wvSfyWS2xT
Five straight sessions now in software $IGV where they open it near the lows and grind it higher all day. https://t.co/RL0fGDQBeY
$spy follow up as it held $675 area and reclaimed $680 then $681.65 A few names help lead the way https://t.co/RCNnDd8R4r
The new $AAPL products should translate into a modest upside for June quarter revenue. https://t.co/3YfhPcJTiW
Everyone’s chasing last year’s winners. The real move is under the surface. Leadership is rotating. Capital is rotating. By the time it’s obvious, it’s late. The Great Rotation is accelerating. Here’s what most investors are missing: https://t.co/Q38nu61vBB
