Know What's Happening in American Stocks
Know What's Happening in American Stocks
S&P 500 climbs 3% on Trump‑Iran talks and easing oil prices
The S&P 500 jumped 3% on Tuesday, marking its strongest weekly gain since November and ending a five‑week decline. The rally was driven by President Trump’s remarks on a possible US‑Iran cease‑fire and a temporary dip in oil prices, while the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF stays 7% below its January peak.
Oracle surged 12% after unveiling a multi‑billion AI cloud infrastructure plan, bucking a week where all Magnificent 7 stocks fell year‑to‑date. Microsoft and Amazon slipped into bear‑market territory despite solid earnings, while Apple dropped nearly 8% on memory‑price margin worries. Nvidia posted a modest 1.4% decline even as analysts lifted its EPS outlook. The divergence highlights a market split between AI‑focused bets and cloud‑growth concerns.
Iran Risk Is Not Priced In Iran escalation does not look easily winnable for Trump. It looks like a bluff inside a trap, which sets up as a dangerous game of “concession or consequence”. https://t.co/XXKbHZrXhQ
New episode 🎙️ Rob Haworth (U.S. Bank Asset Management) joins me to break down 2026 macro: resilient momentum, inflation + earnings “leaking” through the system, tariffs, geopolitics, Fed uncertainty, and what to watch if rates spike. https://t.co/OPTdLbcGgJ
Daniel Marchese serves as an analyst at All Star Charts and co‑runs The Chart Report, a platform that delivers a steady stream of annotated charts with actionable insights on stocks, markets, trends, and sectors. His analysis zeroes in on price...
This evening stock futures are having more moves than a shortstop batting .110. @KeithMcCullough @hedgeye @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC @carlquintanilla @ScottWapnerCNBC @guyadami @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @Convertbond @pboockvar
One thing I feel strongly about regarding AI is that, when it comes to trading, we are going to witness a streamlined cycle of signal degradation. Classical signals will become crowded very quickly. The market will rotate through those cycles faster...
Jamieson Greer, a low‑key lawyer turned U.S. Trade Representative, has become the chief architect of President Trump’s renewed global trade war. Since his appointment in early 2025, Greer has designed aggressive tariff structures and led negotiations with major trading partners,...
⚠️The US Dollar's role in global reserves is FALLING: USD share in global currency reserves dropped to ~40%, the lowest in at least 25 years. This is down from ~58% a decade ago. During the same period, gold’s share has risen from 16%...
The S&P 500’s mega‑cap companies posted record‑high profit margins in Q4 2025, driven by strong pricing power and cost efficiencies. However, the earnings releases also revealed a sharp rise in C‑suite compensation and related overhead, outpacing earnings growth. Analysts note...
Owners poured nearly $1.5 billion into racehorses last year, a 21 percent jump from 2024, while the Keeneland September Yearling Sale set a record $531.5 million in sales, up 24 percent. A Trump‑era bonus depreciation provision now lets owners immediately deduct the full purchase...
In this episode, Edward Corona examines Dutch Bros (BROS), a drive‑thru coffee chain that just reported one of its strongest quarters, asking whether the stock is showing an early momentum shift that could signal a broader market turn. He breaks...
Via the Financial Times: My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory. The decoupling of US growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years: https://www.ft.com/content/298a38bb-4cc1-44f3-bd62-6aff25d58b94 #economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #growth...
🚨Global equities 'SELL SIGNAL' was triggered for the 7th month STRAIGHT: Institutional investors' cash as a share of assets fell to 3.2% in January, the lowest EVER. Cash allocations at or below 4% indicate a SELL SIGNAL for world stocks.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-ended-the-week-mixed-after-a-powerful-rebound-on-friday-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-0
The Treasury estimates average tax refunds will rise to about $4,000 this year, driven by the retroactive tax cuts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Higher refunds boost disposable income, reigniting consumer spending after a recent flattening. Meanwhile, Baby...
Ray Dalio says the world order has broken down. His “Stage 6” post went viral on X. What does that mean for markets? I mapped his framework to 5 stocks positioned for trade wars, tech controls, rearmament, energy shocks & gold. Here’s the playbook: https://t.co/FrP3YuOJA9
Agree with Mark. March 4 will likely be highlighted by a low-end MacBook and maybe a new lower-priced iPhone 17e (the 16e came out a year ago). Siri won't be addressed. My take: The low-end products have historically led to a...
The EPA announced that the credit automakers receive for installing start‑stop systems is being eliminated, reversing a policy that helped meet vehicle emissions standards. The Trump administration rejected the scientific endangerment finding that justified the credit, arguing the feature damages...
In my sixth data update, I look at business profitability in 2025, across sectors, industries and regions, scaled to revenues (profit margins) and to invested capital (accounting returns). I use the latter to compute and compare excess returns. https://t.co/L3PDmph4VA
This chart captures the 2 most important themes in the Stockmarket right now. 1. Global vs US rotation 2. Top in tech stocks For the past 17-years US Tech stocks have dominated global markets, but that is starting to change... https://t.co/6DhUXusR6C
In this episode Edward Corona examines Instacart’s (CART) recent earnings report, highlighting that while the company missed GAAP EPS expectations, its stock surged over 9%. He explains that the market focused on underlying growth metrics—especially rising customer spend—and ignored the...
Rotation away from S&P500 (flat on the year) into other assets like foreign stocks, US value, etc up 10-15% seems to be accelerating...
ICYMI: Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm blog post https://t.co/B5a4uBC2Q4 Thanks + follow reco to chart sources @MarketCharts @topdowncharts @dailychartbook @MauiBoyMacro @KobeissiLetter @StealthQE4 @HayekAndKeynes
Eaton Corporation (ETN) posted strong fourth‑quarter earnings and a robust order backlog, prompting analysts to raise price targets. RBC lifted its target to $407 and kept an Outperform rating, while Morgan Stanley increased its target to $425 with an Overweight...
Given I timed the sector rotation with precision in Nov & said it would likely run until Feb, and we are here, I'm gonna share what else I also told clients: IN LIEU OF SECTOR ROTATION, THERE WILL BE VOLATILITY™️😉
Good piece. Warsh would be a fundamental break from the Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell Feds if he carried out his views. Do I think he’s capable of pulling that off? Not really. Do I think he might try to and...
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw its stock retreat about 28.8% from a recent $267 peak after a mixed quarterly earnings release, yet analysts remain optimistic. Revenue surged 34% YoY to $10.3 billion, driven by strong sales of EPYC server CPUs, Ryzen...
Metal Volatility Changed Everything $GLD $SLV $BTCUSD $SPX $QQQ $IGV $XLK Sharp volatility in gold, silver, crypto and equities was easier to spot than most think. And why I study sector rotation, options structure, and investor confidence. https://t.co/PYmLxcJSCJ
A few interesting mkt observations YTD: the sector outperformers are led by the smallest weightings in $SPX while the Mag 7 is -7%, $WMT is +12% vs software -22% and $AMZN down 9 days in a row - 1st time...
The U.S. will release its Q4 2025 GDP figures this week, a data point that could reshape expectations for the nation’s growth trajectory. Meanwhile, bond markets are reacting to growing skepticism about the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs narrative, with...
NEW ODD LOTS - THE DRAM EPISODE The AI boom has created voracious demand for memory, meaning even consumer-facing companies are now having to compete for the chips @TheStalwart & I speak with @rwang07, analyst at SemiAnalysis, about the big DRAM crunch https://t.co/HYFcg7nK8Z
Meanwhile Chamath Palihapitiya’s SPAC track record - Chamath became the face of the SPAC boom through his Social Capital Hedosophia deals. Their performance since? • $SPCE: −95% • $OPEN: −98% • $CLOV: −90% • $SOFI: −45% • $AKLI: −95% •...
In this episode, Goldman Sachs discusses the growing pains in the quantitative investing space, while Carlyle warns that AI exposure has become oversized across many portfolios. Scott Bessent revisits his earlier stance on Warsh’s balance sheet reduction, indicating a potential...
Flat Index Masks Hidden Chaos A guest contribution post by our partners at SpotGamma https://t.co/XlP50y4c9B
Unless and until NQ can consolidate above 26,800 there is a distinct possibility (50% Bayesian view) that this chart displays classic Wyckoff distribution For me the jury is still undecided @NQ_F $QQQ https://t.co/NdTFclpl7U
dailyanalysts 🚨 WEEK AHEAD ALERT: Feb 16-21 🚨 Three catalysts could define your portfolio's Q1. Markets closed Monday for Presidents' Day, but Tuesday through Friday is packed with market-moving data. S&P 500 is flat YTD. Nasdaq down 3%. Consumer confidence at DECADE LOWS. Here's...
We have the potential to see a large portion of S&P 500 companies out perform in 2026. With the top 10 stocks making up around 40% of the index, even a slight pullback in tech would make this quite easy.
US employment costs rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, just under forecasts of 0.8%, and the lowest level since Q2 2021.
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Tech stocks (particularly software) remain under pressure. 2. Investor exposure to tech is at historically elevated levels. 3. Surging tech capex is coming at the cost of buybacks. 4. Private equity stocks are also coming under...
Hedgeye's Models vs. The Fed Reminder on the Hedgeye Nowcast for SLOWING US Inflation (which drove Bond Yields lower and Gold higher late this wk) Our monthly inflation nowcast is a weekly publication which augments our existing quarterly nowcast by offering a...
I love how boomer strategists present the chart on free cash flows from the Mag 7 as rocket science. We learned on the first days at university that CapEx means less FCF in that year. Do these guys understand anything whatsoever...
The S&P 500 may appear calm on the surface, yet index-stock dispersion has increased dramatically and SPX has now slipped below the critical 6,900 level. With put skew rising and VIX expiration ahead, volatility risk is building. Read our latest...
If all you knew was that semis were up double digits, you'd never expect tech to be this weak. It is like tech is being split into two groups, the stuff that goes up and the stuff that goes down.
Get my newsletter Tuesday morning: https://t.co/dSU3TT2kZX Busy week coming with GDP, Core PCE, FOMC Minutes $PANW $ADI $WMT $DE https://t.co/7mNeUbi7R9
The share of people 25 to 39 years old making annual transfers to investment accounts more than **tripled** between 2013 and 2023 to 14.4 percent, outpacing increases for those 40 and over -- JPMorgan Chase Institute https://t.co/gcJCu02dAu @WSJmarkets
SPX 0DTE set a record at 70.5% percent of total SPX volume on 2/11. https://t.co/Mt3ulp1iSt
This isn’t a victory lap, and it isn’t a doom story. The U.S. economy is closer to a soft landing than it’s been in some time, and there are real risks that could undo it from multiple directions. I try...
Classic monotonic pattern. When you see this pattern you know with a higher degree of certainty that it is one of THE drivers of how investors are positioning their portfolios. We’ve been recommending a value tilt since last fall, as...
How I Called The Top In Silver & What Comes Next $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL We also about my yen monetization framework, oil, AI-driven software disruption & timing a historic rotation into large-cap value. https://t.co/0A5l9bLx9C
Wouldn’t that be something: $NVDA earnings 25th with SCOTUS decision on tariffs anytime after 20th… #IEEPA USD bullish in the short term if they hand back tariff control to Congress 🎰 $VIX
There are really only two times when stocks become "cheap": collectively, - usually when the health of the economy is in question, - and, more narrowly, when the viability of a business or its industry is in question. You...
