Today's American Stocks Pulse
Dow climbs nearly 200 points to record close as oil eases on Iran truce hopes
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped about 200 points, closing at a fresh all‑time high. The rally was driven by a pullback in oil prices after optimism surrounding a potential Iran truce. Markets remained cautious amid mixed political signals.
DEEP DIVE: 10 Reasons To Remain Optimistic About The US Economy
The Treasury estimates average tax refunds will rise to about $4,000 this year, driven by the retroactive tax cuts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Higher refunds boost disposable income, reigniting consumer spending after a recent flattening. Meanwhile, Baby Boom retirees are expected to sustain strong consumption by drawing on retirement savings, further lowering the personal saving rate. Analysts now project stronger real GDP growth and higher S&P 500 earnings for 2026.
FOMC Minutes May Spark Q1 Market Shift
dailyanalysts 🚨 WEEK AHEAD ALERT: Feb 16-21 🚨 Three catalysts could define your portfolio's Q1. Markets closed Monday for Presidents' Day, but Tuesday through Friday is packed with market-moving data. S&P 500 is flat YTD. Nasdaq down 3%. Consumer confidence at DECADE LOWS. Here's...
Tech Pullback Could Let Most S&P 500 Outperform
We have the potential to see a large portion of S&P 500 companies out perform in 2026. With the top 10 stocks making up around 40% of the index, even a slight pullback in tech would make this quite easy.
Trump Administration Ends Credit for Start-Stop Feature in Cars
The EPA announced that the credit automakers receive for installing start‑stop systems is being eliminated, reversing a policy that helped meet vehicle emissions standards. The Trump administration rejected the scientific endangerment finding that justified the credit, arguing the feature damages...
US Employment Costs Rise 0.7%, Lowest Since 2021
US employment costs rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, just under forecasts of 0.8%, and the lowest level since Q2 2021.
Tech Pressure Rises, Defensives Gain Amid Market Crossroads
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Tech stocks (particularly software) remain under pressure. 2. Investor exposure to tech is at historically elevated levels. 3. Surging tech capex is coming at the cost of buybacks. 4. Private equity stocks are also coming under...
🛒 Instacart (CART): The EPS Miss That Didn’t Matter
In this episode Edward Corona examines Instacart’s (CART) recent earnings report, highlighting that while the company missed GAAP EPS expectations, its stock surged over 9%. He explains that the market focused on underlying growth metrics—especially rising customer spend—and ignored the...
Eaton (ETN) Is Still Buyable, Says Jim Cramer
Eaton Corporation (ETN) posted strong fourth‑quarter earnings and a robust order backlog, prompting analysts to raise price targets. RBC lifted its target to $407 and kept an Outperform rating, while Morgan Stanley increased its target to $425 with an Overweight...
Is AMD Stock a Buy? Why Wall Street Sees 40% Upside From Here.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw its stock retreat about 28.8% from a recent $267 peak after a mixed quarterly earnings release, yet analysts remain optimistic. Revenue surged 34% YoY to $10.3 billion, driven by strong sales of EPYC server CPUs, Ryzen...
Bonds, Consumers Doubt BLS Jobs Narrative With GDP Due
The U.S. will release its Q4 2025 GDP figures this week, a data point that could reshape expectations for the nation’s growth trajectory. Meanwhile, bond markets are reacting to growing skepticism about the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs narrative, with...
Hedgeye Nowcast Predicts Slowing Inflation, Yields Drop, Gold Rises
Hedgeye's Models vs. The Fed Reminder on the Hedgeye Nowcast for SLOWING US Inflation (which drove Bond Yields lower and Gold higher late this wk) Our monthly inflation nowcast is a weekly publication which augments our existing quarterly nowcast by offering a...
Strategists Misread CapEx, Overhype Free Cash Flow
I love how boomer strategists present the chart on free cash flows from the Mag 7 as rocket science. We learned on the first days at university that CapEx means less FCF in that year. Do these guys understand anything whatsoever...
WATCH YOUR BIDS (S2026 E03)
In this episode, Goldman Sachs discusses the growing pains in the quantitative investing space, while Carlyle warns that AI exposure has become oversized across many portfolios. Scott Bessent revisits his earlier stance on Warsh’s balance sheet reduction, indicating a potential...
S&P's Calm Mask Hiding Rising Dispersion and Volatility
The S&P 500 may appear calm on the surface, yet index-stock dispersion has increased dramatically and SPX has now slipped below the critical 6,900 level. With put skew rising and VIX expiration ahead, volatility risk is building. Read our latest...
Semis Surge While Tech Splits Into Winners, Losers
If all you knew was that semis were up double digits, you'd never expect tech to be this weak. It is like tech is being split into two groups, the stuff that goes up and the stuff that goes down.
MAG7 FREE CASH FLOW COLLAPSE
The episode examines the recent collapse in free cash flow among the MAG7—Microsoft, Apple, Google (Alphabet), Amazon, and Meta—highlighting how their once robust cash generation has sharply deteriorated. It explores the drivers behind this decline, including macroeconomic headwinds, higher capital...
Upcoming Week Packed with GDP, PCE, FOMC Insights
Get my newsletter Tuesday morning: https://t.co/dSU3TT2kZX Busy week coming with GDP, Core PCE, FOMC Minutes $PANW $ADI $WMT $DE https://t.co/7mNeUbi7R9
Young Investors' Account Transfers Triple in a Decade
The share of people 25 to 39 years old making annual transfers to investment accounts more than **tripled** between 2013 and 2023 to 14.4 percent, outpacing increases for those 40 and over -- JPMorgan Chase Institute https://t.co/gcJCu02dAu @WSJmarkets
FFSM: Sensible SMID Strategy, Competitive Returns, Worth Shotlisting
Fidelity Fundamental Small‑Mid Cap ETF (FFSM) is an actively managed, non‑transparent fund that combines quantitative screening with fundamental research. Since its 2024 strategy shift, FFSM has outperformed the S&P 500 and several SMID peers such as IJH and SMMD, driven by...
0DTE Options Dominate SPX Volume at 70.5% Record
SPX 0DTE set a record at 70.5% percent of total SPX volume on 2/11. https://t.co/Mt3ulp1iSt
U.S. Economy Near Soft Landing Amid Multiple Risks
This isn’t a victory lap, and it isn’t a doom story. The U.S. economy is closer to a soft landing than it’s been in some time, and there are real risks that could undo it from multiple directions. I try...
Why a Tariff Ruling Could Mean Consumer Relief
Arunima Sinha explains that a pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the president's authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could sharply reduce tariffs on many consumer goods, lowering the effective tariff rate from about 15% to the...
Value Tilt Gains as Momentum Spread Widens 16%
Classic monotonic pattern. When you see this pattern you know with a higher degree of certainty that it is one of THE drivers of how investors are positioning their portfolios. We’ve been recommending a value tilt since last fall, as...
Energy Leads US Sector Gains; Financials Fall
🇺🇸 US Sector Performance in 2026 📈 $XLE Energy up 22% $XLB Basic Materials up 18% $XLP Consumer Defensive up 16% $XLI industrials up 12.8% $XLU Utilities up 9% $XLRE Real Estate up 8% $XLV Healthcare up 2% $XLY Consumer Retail -2% $XLK Technology -2.5% $XLF Financials -5%
Predicting Silver’s Peak and the Next Market
How I Called The Top In Silver & What Comes Next $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL We also about my yen monetization framework, oil, AI-driven software disruption & timing a historic rotation into large-cap value. https://t.co/0A5l9bLx9C
USD Poised to Rise if Congress Regains Tariff Control
Wouldn’t that be something: $NVDA earnings 25th with SCOTUS decision on tariffs anytime after 20th… #IEEPA USD bullish in the short term if they hand back tariff control to Congress 🎰 $VIX
Stocks Are only Cheap During Economic or Business Crises
There are really only two times when stocks become "cheap": collectively, - usually when the health of the economy is in question, - and, more narrowly, when the viability of a business or its industry is in question. You...
Debate: Should S&P Reclassify HOOD to Gaming?
Should S&P move $HOOD from Financial Services to Gaming? Put it in an entirely different GICS category? @RealJimChanos
Tech Stocks' Valuations Soar, Yet Margins Remain Stretched
Biggest strength for Tech Stocks. and their biggest weakness? (stretched valuations are underpinned by stretched profit margins) https://t.co/JyYGvhtRlC
Disinflation Relief Meets Market Disruption Fear
CPI cools to 2.4%. Yields fall 18bps. S&P 500 posts its worst week since November. If inflation is easing… why aren’t stocks cheering? The market isn’t repricing rates. It’s repricing disruption. Disinflation Relief, Disruption Fear 👇 https://t.co/JM3yRs0tFM
Services Inflation Sticks While Housing Disinflation Persists
Closing out the week with @GregDaco and @ElizRosner talking about inflation: "On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the...
Capital Shifts to Value: Cash Flow Beats Future Promises
Leadership didn’t vanish; it rotated. Capital moved from high-growth tech into value, dividends, and economically sensitive sectors. When rates stay higher and scrutiny rises, cash flow today beats promises tomorrow. Style matters again.
Old Leaders Fade; Adapt Fast to New Trading Landscape
The leaders of last year are no longer the favorites. The trading landscape is changing, and you have to adapt quickly to keep an edge.
Defensive Sectors Exhausted, Market Poised for Broad Correction
While sectors like staples (XLP), energy (XLE), materials (XLB) and industrials (XLI) have all provided a safe haven in recent weeks as large cap tech has sucked wind, most of these are all now reaching exhaustion. This means that from...
PLTR Near $120 May Offer Counter‑Trend Bounce
$PLTR not my style to buy dips after big breakdowns, but would have attractiveness from counter-trend perspective near 120 into Monday-Wed of next week. @IBDinvestors @marketsurge NEW charts link https://t.co/XW54gpkuMU Note that 4/7/25-11/3/25 rally of 210 cal. days...
Defensive Sectors Lead as Market Turns Bearish
Defensive rotation continues. Utilities and real estate led again, $VIX closed above 20, and my short-term trend model flipped bearish. I also answered questions on holding through earnings ($MAR), #Bitcoin correlation, and what makes a trader great. Watch here: https://t.co/dJtLYZYHoz
Inverted Head‑Shoulders Pattern Shows 61% Success Rate
This classical pattern is called a continuation inverted head and shoulders. This is one of the most reliable patterns with a success rate of 61%, of which 43% travel to the target with minimum interruption. $CME @TechCharts #probabilities matter in...
Biggest Stocks Push S&P 500 Margin to Record 12.6%
"The exceptional profitability of the largest stocks boosted the aggregate S&P 500 profit margin to a new record high of 12.6% in 4Q" - Goldman https://t.co/5fnYCaoDhm
Visa's TSR Mirrors Earnings Growth, P/E Stays Flat
Visa total return the last decade or so basically all earnings growth; P/E unchanged while change in EPS estimates roughly equal TSR https://t.co/wYh3Mkz7Aq
Ford Faces $900M Tariff Blow, Highlighting US Corporate Pain
Ford just disclosed an additional $900M tariff hit in its Q4 results. TARIFFS = BAD NEWS FOR AMERICAN CORPORATIONS. https://t.co/kau61WOizz
Broadening Value and Cyclical Rotation Driven by Fundamentals
We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably, it’s the only rotation that has been propelled by broader macro and micro fundamentals rather than lower rates. We first recommended a broadening trade of value and...
SPY Likely Drops Below $670 Before Hitting $690
Some ask. What do I think next week. The next ten $spy points. I’d say below $670 before above $690
Steel Stock SLX Surges: Rare Early Buying Opportunity
Helpful context. Your competitors completely missed this epic Cyclical ramp in the Steel Stocks $SLX and today's one of our 1st Buying Opportunities in a while
Signal Strength Recommends Holding Nucor Stock
Sam @SamofAmerica , Signal Strength says to stay with Nucor $NUE here. What say you?
DWSH Slides 1.3% as Borrowing Costs
Drosey Wrong $DWSH down another -1.3% and they're trying to jack up the borrow, sad
Professional Energy Bet After Yesterday’s Red Close
If you were buying more Energy Exposure via $XOP $OIH into a red close 24 hours ago, professionally done
Market Rally Likely False Amid Risk‑off Sentiment
I believe this is a false rally. Look at Utilities. That's defensive positioning. Same with long duration Treasuries. We remain in a risk-off condition for now.
SaaS Still Thriving: Mispriced Narrative, Not Collapse
“Software is dead.” That’s the narrative. Revenue isn’t collapsing. Balance sheets aren’t broken. The Fed isn’t tightening. AI disruption… or mispricing? The setup in large-cap SaaS may be asymmetric. Read: https://t.co/dhUDCqMzbs
CPI Slowdown Fuels Falling Yields, Bullish Duration, Utilities, Gold
Post Hedgeye's Nowcast nailing another decel in CPI Growth decelerates → yields fall → correlations re-assert That’s the whole #Quad3 playbook ✔️ Duration bullish ✔️ Utilities work ✔️ Gold works ❌ Financials don’t
Danny Moses Show Returns: Economy, AI, Markets Forecast
The Danny Moses Show returns tonight @scrippsnews at 7PM sponsored by @Kalshi. Great to have @pboockvar join me & we talk about the global & U.S. economy, A.I. stocks/bonds, commodities, the consumer, #FED, Private Credit & make some @Kalshi predictions... https://t.co/vQGLUQMHUc...