Today's American Stocks Pulse
Dow climbs nearly 200 points to record close as oil eases on Iran truce hopes
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped about 200 points, closing at a fresh all‑time high. The rally was driven by a pullback in oil prices after optimism surrounding a potential Iran truce. Markets remained cautious amid mixed political signals.
Suzano SA (SUZ) Jumps to New Record High on Swing to Profits
Suzano SA surged to a 52‑week high of $11.22, closing up 13.5% at $11.18 after reporting a dramatic swing to profitability. Net income jumped to R$13.4 billion in 2023 from a R$7.04 billion loss the prior year, while revenues rose 6% to R$50 billion. The fourth‑quarter profit of R$116 million came despite an 8% revenue dip, driven by modest gains in pulp and paper sales. The company also announced a share‑repurchase program targeting 40 million shares by August 2027, its sixth buyback round.
Silver Stalls Below 75; Inflation Data Could Spark Metal Rally
$SLV having big trouble getting above 75.00 again...which still won't be enough to restore confidence. Big inflation report ahead...precious metals may see a big reaction.
Palantir Down 30% YTD: Bulls
Tough year to be a Palantir bull. $PLTR is down 30% YTD with no sign of reversal. Are you buying this dip?
Globalfoundries (GFS) Hits New High on Swing to Profits
Globalfoundries swung from a $262 million loss in 2024 to an $888 million profit in 2025, posting a 439 percent year‑on‑year earnings improvement. Revenue grew only 1 percent to $6.79 billion, highlighting higher‑margin contracts and cost efficiencies as the profit drivers. The fourth‑quarter profit of...
Headline Inflation Cools, Core CPI Accelerates in January
Wall Street expects a cooler month for headline inflation but a hotter month for core in January Headline CPI: 0.26% m/m, 2.5% y/y (down from 0.31% m/m and 2.7% y/y in December) Core CPI: 0.34% m/m, 2.5% y/y (core m/m accelerating from...
Steepening Yield Curve Could Shift QE Benefits to Main Street
How might the Fed/Treasury do that? One possibility is to cut short rates to steepen the yield curve, and deregulate the banks into buying the long end so that the Fed’s balance sheet can be “privatized.” If those QE assets...
Data Center REITs Are A Conservative Way To Play AI
The AI spending surge is rewarding infrastructure providers more than software developers, with data‑center REITs emerging as a conservative play on the trend. Equinix and Digital Realty benefit directly from hyperscalers’ massive compute investments, delivering immediate revenue growth. Equinix reported...
Fed Treasury to Coordinate
Things have been quiet on the rate side, with the 10-year yield trading at around 4 ¼ percent and expectations for a few more rate cuts (down to 3.1%) holding firm. We will likely soon have a lot more coordination between...
Expensive Stocks Trigger Sell‑off, Narrative Needed
What if a bunch of stocks just got kind of expensive, are selling off, and we need a narrative? Just sayin…
Rate Expectations
The episode dissects the impact of January's surprisingly strong jobs report, which undermined expectations of a weakening labor market and pushed anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts further into the future. It also examines a new Congressional Budget Office outlook that...
Software Stocks Tumble; Crypto Mirrors the Decline
Software stocks are struggling again today. $IGV (iShares Software ETF) is essentially back to last week's panic lows. Don't forget there's another type of software, "programmable money," crypto. Bitcoin (blue) with the software index (orange). They are the same thing. https://t.co/tLEELqcWcJ
EXPD Faces Biggest Sell‑Off Since 1998 Crisis
Worst sell-off in this logistics/tech company since 1998 (LTCM & Russian Debt Crisis) $EXPD Bigger than Tariffs, March 2020, 2008. AI Fears https://t.co/pSckCN9oYm
TMTB EOD Wrap
The episode reviews a rough day for tech stocks, with the QQQ index up modestly while most internet and software names slump amid an accelerating AI narrative. Host Citrini describes an "AI Disruption Discount" hitting vertical SaaS, ad platforms, and...
Biden's Trade Deficit Slightly Lower than Trump's, Not 78% Drop
So, for the record: The trade deficit in the first 11 months of the Trump administration was $839.5B. In the same period in 2024, the final Biden year, it was $806.6B. And if you think this year's performance is a...
All Markets Tumble, $3.6T Erased in 90 Minutes
-$3.6T in 90 minutes Gold fell 3.76%, wiping out nearly $1.34T in market cap. Silver dropped 8.5%, losing around $400B in market value. The S&P 500 declined 1%, erasing $620B. Nasdaq slid more than 1.6%, shedding $600B. The crypto...
🏹 Robinhood: Strong Platform, Weak Crypto, Split Narrative
The episode dissects Robinhood's latest earnings, highlighting a modest EPS beat but a revenue miss at $1.28 billion, with investors zeroing in on the platform's faltering crypto segment. It examines how the slowdown in crypto trading revenue is weighing on the...
New Investors Shift From Tech to Industrials, Energy, Metals
How is the "newborn" buy industrials, energy and metals instead of tech crowd feeling today?
Market Shifts to AI Fear, Not Bubble, Concerns
The market is more in “AI fear” mode than “AI bubble” mode currently Everyone fears the left tail in their business
Job Jitters
The episode examines the current economic turbulence on Main Street, highlighting widespread layoffs and soft retail sales, while contrasting this with TSMC's explosive growth in the tech sector. It also explores the impact of a new AI-driven tax‑management tool that...
Global Equities Surge Far Beyond S&P 2025
Since the start of 2025: S&P 500 +19.5% European stocks +45.3% Emerging markets +50.8% Asian stocks +55.9% https://t.co/lrZrKKIC4x
Thursday's Top Market Insights: Funds, Tech, Bitcoin
10 Thursday AM Reads: -Fidelity Contrafund’s Will Danoff’s Secret Sauce -200 lines of markdown just triggered a $285 billion sell-off —what broke -Your stocks have been slumping, but you probably can’t blame Trump -Bitcoin’s Binary Endgame -Stumped Waymos Driven From Philippines https://t.co/FLNkyDLJUD
Dow Hits Record as Retail Sales Stall | Closing Bell
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a fresh all‑time high, buoyed by strong earnings from industrial and financial stocks. At the same time, the latest retail sales data showed flat growth, indicating a pause in consumer spending. Despite the...
Asian Stocks Outpace US, Shifting Money Abroad
Perhaps the trade this year isn't so much "sell America," but rather something like: "spend a lot more money everywhere else" - at least so far this year. For example, Asian stocks have made their best start over US equities...
Equal‑Weight S&P Leads S&P 500, Biggest Gap Since 1992
The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is outperforming the S&P 500 this year by the largest margin since **1992** (YTD) --Dow Jones Market Data https://t.co/6EV9smAqNP
AI Disrupts Financials. Bad Data Misleads On Economy.
Altruist, a wealth‑management startup, rolled out AI‑driven tax‑planning tools, prompting a sharp sell‑off in legacy financial firms such as Charles Schwab, LPL Financial and Morgan Stanley. The reaction reflects investor anxiety that AI could erode traditional advisory revenue streams. Despite...
CBO Underestimates AI's Productivity Boost, Forecasts Too Low
CBO is mostly dismissive of the effects of AI on productivity growth (overly so IMHO). They expect *slowing* potential labor force productivity as the modest AI boost to TFP is swamped by the reduction in capital services. I would take the over...
Bulls Near Record, Yet Options and Speculatives Stay Low
Sentiment in the stock market appears somewhat mixed. The Investors Intelligence survey (below) does show that the percentage of bulls is near the historical highs (62) while the percent bears is near the low (15). However, that level of enthusiasm is...
Jobs Surge, Unemployment Drops: GDP Gains Confirm Strength
On the surface a strong jobs report (130K jobs & unemployment falls to 4.3%). And just about every detail makes that stronger: participation up, involuntary part-time down, hours up, wages up. The mystery of strong GDP and weak jobs is being resolved...
January Jobs Spark Rate‑cut Doubts Despite Solid Hires
Analytically, the January U.S. jobs report supports competing views. The market reaction, however, was clear: traders have sharply dialed back expectations for a June rate cut. The big beat on January job creation, paired with a dip in the unemployment rate...
Global Payout Growth Outpaces US, Driving Valuations
And it’s not just global earnings that have been showing momentum. Payouts (dividends + buybacks) have been advancing as well, as companies near and far have become more shareholder savvy. The growth rate of payouts has been the primary driver...
Global Earnings Boom Ends S&P’s EAFE Uptrend
The earnings boom has gone global, with estimates in both EAFE and EM showing good momentum. The blue squiggles show estimates for the S&P 500 and the pink ones are for the MSCI EAFE index. The days of significant divergences...
Strong Earnings, Modest Overvaluation—Boom, Not Bubble
This formidable earnings growth has allowed valuations to take a back seat for a change. While the 5-year CAPE ratio is up there at 32x, the n12m P/E multiple doesn’t seem too onerous at 22x, considering not only the earnings...
Strong NFP Spurs Fed Pause, Dollar Gains, Market Pullback
NFP BREAKDOWN : Unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% while headline number crushed the expectations. In simple words , this was a much solid NFP all across the board. FED pause will continue. Profit taking in Gold , SPX , NASDAQ on reduced rate cut...
Jobs Report Day Shows Record Forecast Divergence
Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US. The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings. As we head into this release,...
US Hiring Slumps to Recession-Level, Job Market Fragile
⚠️US HIRING IS AT RECESSION LEVELS: US hiring rate sits at just 3.3%, in line with the 2020 Crisis and one of the lowest readings in 13 years. Hiring is even weaker than during the 2001 recession and at levels seen during...
US Consumer Credit Surges $24B, Outpacing Forecasts
Total US consumer credit increased by $24.05 billion in December, far higher than forecasts of an $8.0 billion increase.
AI Accounts for Just 7% of January Layoffs
🔴AI is NOT the reason for job market LAYOFFS: Artificial Intelligence (AI) was cited in 7,624 of 108,435 layoffs announced in January, representing 7% of all cuts that month. Since 2023, AI has been referenced in just 3% of all job cuts...
Nvidia Chips Generate $8‑10 Economic Ripple per Dollar
"When I look out over the next two, three years, a ripple effect for every dollar spent on $NVDA chips, there's an $8-10 multiplier across software and infrastructure" 🎙️ @DivesTech joins Dan on the latest Okay, Computer. https://t.co/kyBad40Wln
Forecasting Trends, NAV Squeeze Mechanics, Active ETF Surge
🆓 Wednesday links: focusing on forecasting, how NAV squeezing works, and the rise of the active ETF. https://t.co/bgzuhBy1Uq image: https://t.co/JRCEGjVQN2 https://t.co/PSs8BSV9vG
Tech Peaks; Next Moves Mapped in 10 Charts
Off-Topic ChartStorm - Tech Stocks Tech has topped, what's next? Here's 10 charts outlining the situation and thoughts on the risks + opportunities: https://t.co/WKltkF9gOt https://t.co/k0pxNxZedy
Yen Carry Trade Holds; USD Weakens, Markets Rise
Yen Carry Trade Is Not Unwinding Like You Think $USDJPY $FXY $QQQ $DXY Japan & China’s pressure on Treasury sales are weakening the USD, supporting equities + metals overall, without triggering a disruptive yen carry trade unwind. https://t.co/m6Mu3FpuRf
AI Spending Cemented, Driving Multiplier Effect Across Tech
AI spending isn't a debate anymore, it's cemented. @DivesTech on the multiplier effect across software, infrastructure and data centers 💻🚧 https://t.co/TC1BjQAHtv
Earnings Season Sparks 5.2% Avg Move, Largest Since 2012
The average stock reporting so far this earnings season has moved 5.2% up or down, the biggest post-earnings move since at least 2012--Citi https://t.co/Avh8yKzn1V
Trump’s Trillion-Dollar Savings Claim Ignores Fixed-Rate Debt
Trump says lower rates would save "at least one trillion dollars per year." The federal government's entire annual net interest bill was $970 billion in fiscal 2025—and much of that is locked in at rates on previously issued debt that...
Shareholder Rejects Netflix Deal, Backs Paramount Bid
Small Warner Bros. Discovery Shareholder Blasts ‘Flawed, Inferior’ Netflix Offer and Backs Paramount’s Hostile Bid — but Will It Matter? https://t.co/NGSPvAdqOW via @variety
Markets Await Jobs Data to Gauge Fed Cut Prospects
Will stock markets find enough to like in US jobs data? It’s all about Fed interest rate cut expectations. #Jobs #NFP #StockMarket #Dollar #Fed #Macro #Trading https://t.co/UBCpyuHxhZ
AI‑Driven Sell‑Off Sparks Tech Opportunities on Bloomberg TV
Look forward to discussing this AI driven sell-off and the opportunities in tech on @BloombergTV at 9:40 am with @mattmiller1973 and @daniburgz 🔥🍿📺🐂🏆🎯
Long Credit, Short Software: Overlooked Hedgeye Macro Theme
Macro Themes Deck (148 slides) @HedgeyeTV 11AM tomorrow Sneak Peak: this slide shows our Long Credit, Short Software Theme that MANY missed https://t.co/sBbXGGtVAr
Growth Slows, Yields Rise—Short Treasury Duration
Macro: growth softens, yields rise. Key: sticky CPI, Fed tightening, tight labor. Risks: stagflation, policy error. Trade: short US Treasury duration as real yields climb. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Markets Defensive as SPX Stalls Below 7000
Markets turned more defensive Tuesday as early strength faded... In today’s CHART THIS: • $SPX stuck below 7000 • Bonds rally on weaker retail sales • $GOOGL below the 50-day • $AVGO trapped between key MAs • Earnings: $KO $MAR $GILD $HOOD CHART THIS -> https://t.co/pHGfUwqPar