Your Hedges Are Bleeding
The piece highlights a widening gap between realized equity volatility and the higher implied volatility priced into options, suggesting market complacency. It warns that clearing existing puts and VIX call positions ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting and QOPEX could force the market into a “grind lower” phase. The author reflects on past eras when institutional investors dominated option pricing, contrasting that with today’s dynamics. This divergence may set the stage for heightened downside pressure as traders adjust expectations.
The Market Brief
US equity futures nudged higher on Monday, led by Meta’s rally after the company disclosed sweeping AI‑driven workforce cuts. Meanwhile, crude oil lingered near the $100‑a‑barrel mark as Strait of Hormuz shipments remained disrupted, keeping risk appetite muted. Elevated energy...
TMTB EOD Wrap
The Nasdaq‑100 ETF (QQQ) rebounded 1.3% after an early rally sparked by G‑7 reserve‑release speculation, while oil prices fell 4% amid mixed geopolitical signals from a Trump comment on the Strait of Hormuz. AI‑focused semiconductor stocks drove the broader tech...
Did Trump Force China's Hand? Beijing Nears 500-Jet Boeing Deal Ahead Of Xi Summit
Boeing is reportedly close to securing a record 500‑plane order from China, primarily 737 Max jets, with an additional 100 wide‑body aircraft under discussion. Sources say the deal could be unveiled during President Trump’s Beijing visit from March 31 to...
The Market Brief
The market is eyeing the upcoming Non‑Farm Payroll and U.S. retail‑sales releases after a week of volatility sparked by the U.S.–Iran conflict. Geopolitical tension has nudged the S&P 500 outlook toward the downside, yet it has not yet altered payroll expectations,...
Office REITs May Be The Best Value In The Market
Bloomberg’s Thomas Kennedy says the office market bottom is in, citing rising software engineer postings and booming San Francisco office space. Office REITs have fallen 40‑60% since 2020, creating deep valuation gaps across BXP, KRC, CUZ and HIW. Current pricing shows...
Goldilocks Makes Surprise Cameo In US Services Sector
The Institute for Supply Management released a surprisingly strong services‑sector PMI on March 4, showing the index climb to 55.2, well above the 53.5 consensus. New orders surged 4.1% month‑over‑month and employment added roughly 150,000 jobs, underscoring robust demand. Analysts dubbed...
A Washout Bottom?
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) displayed a potential reversal on Tuesday, opening lower, slipping further, then rallying to close the session in positive territory. The move was reinforced by a bullish divergence on the 5‑day Relative Strength Index and trading...
TMTB EOD Wrap: Software Vs. Semis
Software equities outperformed semiconductors sharply, driving the IGV‑SOX performance spread to a 10‑year high of 14.70% on a six‑day rolling basis. This marks the largest spread since the index’s inception, with only six days in the past decade exceeding a...
TMTB: Gitlab (GTLB) Buyside Bogeys
GitLab (GTLB) heads into its quarterly earnings call at 4:05 pm, with an implied 15% price move priced in by the market. The stock has tumbled 50% since the end of October and now trades at roughly three times forward revenue,...
What We Just Learned About The Dollar
The dollar continues to function as a global safe‑haven asset even amid acute crises, reaffirming its appeal to risk‑averse investors. Simultaneously, elevated U.S. Treasury yields are drawing capital despite lingering concerns over fiscal deficits and policy uncertainty. Market data shows...
The Permabulls and Iran
On Monday the S&P 500 closed essentially flat after permabulls rushed in on the opening dip, echoing Michael Burry’s “greatest buy‑the‑dip generation” claim. The optimism was short‑lived as escalating tensions in Iran prompted a market rethink. The author warns that...
Geopolitical Shock Meet Macro Pressures
February proved the year’s second‑worst market month as AI‑related anxieties and rising private‑credit loan‑loss fears weighed on equities. The Producer Price Index jumped 0.5% month‑over‑month and 2.9% year‑to‑date, pushing expectations of near‑term Federal Reserve rate cuts lower. Over the weekend,...
Geopolitical Risk and AI Risk Converging
The Capital Flows Research team notes that geopolitical instability and AI safety concerns are increasingly overlapping, creating a compounded risk environment. The analyst introduced a new AI-driven mapping tool and released a suite of TradingView indicators to monitor these dynamics....
Jobs Report Collides With Iran War In Pivotal Week
U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February posted a solid gain of 210,000 jobs, nudging the unemployment rate down to 3.6%. The report arrived amid heightened geopolitical tension following the weekend assassination that sparked an Iran‑Israel conflict. Investors grappled with strong labor...
TMTB EOD Wrap
The Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) slipped 55 basis points despite concerns over XYZ’s 40% cost‑cut announcement. Semiconductor and software indices fell in tandem, indicating no clear sector rotation. Growth‑at‑a‑reasonable‑price (GARP) and quality stocks outperformed, led by Netflix’s 12% jump, Spotify’s 2% gain,...
MP's "Strong" Quarter: Accelerated Production, Long-Term Agreements With Major Tech Companies
MP Materials posted a fourth‑quarter revenue of $52.7 million and net income of $9.4 million, buoyed by a U.S. Department of War price‑floor agreement. The company recorded a 12% year‑over‑year increase in rare‑earth oxide concentrate, producing a record 50,692 metric tons, and more...
'Soft' Data Soars To 2-Year Highs As Chicago PMI Smashes Expectations
The Market News International Chicago Business Barometer posted a 57.7 reading, the strongest level since May 2022 and well above analyst forecasts. This marks the second consecutive month the index has stayed above the 50‑point expansion threshold. Core components such...
The Market Brief
U.S. equity markets opened with a sharp selloff, pulling the S&P 500 and Nasdaq toward monthly losses while the Dow remains on track for a February gain. Despite the decline, about 70% of S&P constituents closed higher, indicating broad participation....
TMTB EOD Wrap
The Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) slipped 1.2% on Tuesday, dragged down by a 3% decline in semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, software equities posted a solid bid, narrowing the valuation gap between software and semis to its widest since Deepseek’s surge in January 2025 and...
APEX Tech Acquisition Inc. (TRAD.U) Prices $100M IPO
APEX Tech Acquisition Inc. priced a $100 million initial public offering and will begin trading on the NYSE under the symbol TRAD.U on February 26, 2026. The SPAC, led by CEO Shaoren Liu and a board that includes Zengwei Gao, Jiancheng Li and...
Nvidia Blows Away Estimates
Nvidia reported fourth‑quarter results that dramatically outpaced Wall Street expectations, posting $30.1 billion in revenue and GAAP earnings per share of $2.70. The numbers represent a 45% jump in data‑center sales, propelled by soaring demand for its AI‑focused GPUs. The earnings...
Nothing Doing: Lowest Rates Since 2022 Fail To Spur Home Sales
U.S. mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest levels since September 2022, yet home sales remain stagnant. A roughly 50% imbalance between sellers and buyers underscores a deep‑seated market freeze. Inventory shortages and lingering affordability concerns continue to suppress demand...
How ‘Doomers And Boomers’ Took Over US Equity Options
The piece observes that retail investors—dubbed “doomers” for their bearish outlook and “boomers” for their age‑group—now dominate US equity options trading. Their surge has swollen overall volume, steepened put‑call skews and forced market makers to reassess risk models. The author...
TMTB EOD Wrap
The Nasdaq‑100 ETF (QQQ) rose 1 % as a broad tech rally unfolded, led by semiconductors and supported by gains in internet and software stocks. Short‑covering in non‑profitable, heavily shorted tech names amplified the move, indicating traders are re‑entering positions after...
Where Is Money Flowing Today?
Finviz’s latest treemap visualizes today’s capital flows across four major sectors. Technology stocks dominate the green area, registering the strongest percentage gains, while consumer‑cyclical firms display a mixed green‑red pattern. Healthcare appears largely stable, with modest green pockets, and financials...
WHAT'S GOING ON UNDER THE COVERS?
The article "WHAT'S GOING ON UNDER THE COVERS?" teases an investigative look at hidden dynamics shaping today’s market landscape. It promises visual data, likely through the featured graphic, to uncover trends that aren’t immediately visible. While the full text isn’t...
TMTB: Buyside Bogeys for the Week (DOCN, WDAY, CRM, SNOW, NVDA, INTU, CRWV, DELL)
The TMT Breakout newsletter flagged a slate of tech stocks as buyside "bogeys" for the week, highlighting DOCN, WDAY, CRM, SNOW, NVDA, INTU, CRWV and DELL. Nvidia’s earnings season remains the focal point, with its laterals shifting sharply and setting...
How Stocks Could Go From Selling Off To Melting Up
Stocks have been caught in a steep sell‑off driven by lingering tariff uncertainty and heightened investor anxiety. Analysts argue that once the psychological weight of “pure tariff chaos” eases, the market could shift from decline to rapid appreciation. Potential catalysts...
TMTB Morning Wrap
OpenAI disclosed it now targets roughly $600 billion in compute spend through 2030, a revision from the earlier $1.4 trillion infrastructure commitment that blended CAPEX and OPEX. The company’s push for additional AI‑compute power is hampered by the stalled Stargate joint venture...
FRPT: Thinking Long Term To Beat Wall Street
Freshpet reported Q4 2025 earnings, with shares slipping nearly 4% as Wall Street focuses on slowing sales growth. The company highlighted an expanding pet‑parent market, now 36 million households, and its 4% share of the $38 billion dog‑food sector. Core “MVP” customers—2.4 million...
TMTB Weekly: NVDA/SNOW Previews & Thoughts + SNDK
In this episode the hosts skip a deep dive on OpenAI’s latest revenue and operating‑expense numbers, deeming the headlines largely hype, and instead focus on previewing Nvidia (NVDA) and Snowflake (SNOW) stocks, offering short‑term technical outlooks and strategic considerations. They...
MARKET CALL: A Loopy Stock Market
The equal‑weight S&P 500 has surged to fresh record levels this year, while the market‑weight index remains stuck near 7,000. The divergence reflects a broad rotation from AI‑focused high‑tech stocks to lower‑tech, physical‑asset sectors such as energy, industrials, and materials. Rising...
🍗 Is Wingstop About to Turn the Corner Again?
In this episode Edward Corona examines Wingstop’s latest earnings report, noting an 8.6% revenue increase to $175 million but a miss on expectations and a 5.8% decline in domestic comparable sales—the weakest stretch of FY25. Despite the “meh” headline numbers, the...
Could the “Lag 7” Crater the Economy and Market?
The so‑called "Magnificent Seven" mega‑cap stocks have broken a critical support level and are now testing the 200‑day moving average. Their relative performance chart is forming an inverted saucer top, a pattern often seen before sharper declines. Analysts warn that...
Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA-Based Tariffs, Doesn’t Rule on Refunds (“Likely to Be a ‘Mess’”)
The Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) in a 6‑3 decision, covering both reciprocal trade‑deficit tariffs and fentanyl‑related duties. Over half of the tariff revenue collected in recent years...
Inflation’s Back In America. Not That It Ever Left
The Federal Reserve’s January FOMC minutes confirm that inflation remains entrenched in the United States, contrary to earlier optimism. Core consumer‑price index rose 0.3% month‑over‑month, keeping annual inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. The minutes show policymakers acknowledging persistent price...
Government Dysfunction Torpedoes US Economic Growth
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations. This marks a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% surge recorded in the preceding quarter and is the slowest expansion since...
Research Review | 20 February 2026 | Forecasting Returns
Recent academic research sharpens the tools investors use to forecast long‑term returns and market risk. Rui Ma et al. show that a market‑cap‑weighted Component CAPE ratio aligns prices and earnings, delivering out‑of‑sample R² above 50 %. Javier Estrada confirms that valuation multiples...
M'tourist Private Feed Recap
In this private feed episode, Kevin Muir reviews the latest macroeconomic data and market trends, focusing on recent inflation reports, central bank policy shifts, and emerging market dynamics. He highlights how unexpected CPI readings are reshaping bond yields and discusses...
If The ‘Smart Money’ Is A Contrarian Indicator, It’s Time To Sell
Recent data show institutional investors have poured a record $158 billion into U.S. equities during the last quarter, even as inflation remains above target and the Federal Reserve signals further rate hikes. The article argues that when the so‑called “smart money”...
Problems at Yelp (YELP)
The episode dissects Yelp’s deteriorating business model, highlighting a sharp slowdown in revenue growth and a recent year‑over‑year decline driven by weaker ad clicks and economic uncertainty. It argues that a toxic sales culture, high‑pressure outbound tactics, and a disgruntled...
TMTB Morning Wrap
The episode opens with a market snapshot and escalating US‑Iran tensions before diving into earnings from DoorDash (DASH), Booking Holdings (BKNG), eBay (EBAY), Carvana (CVNA) and FIG. DoorDash reported strong 4Q25 growth in gross order value and EBITDA but missed...
Fixed Income Disaster: Will Investors Ever Forget?
The article argues that quantitative easing and expansive fiscal policies have propelled equities while leaving long‑duration bonds lagging, with gold emerging as the top performer since 2022. Chart data shows the S&P 500 up over 700% since 2010, whereas TLT...
Drawing Lines in the Sand
The equal‑weighted S&P 500 continues a well‑defined uptrend, indicating intermediate‑term bullish momentum. In contrast, the broader, cap‑weighted U.S. equity averages remain confined to tight trading ranges, reflecting short‑term indecision. Meanwhile, the VVIX—volatility of the VIX—has stayed above the 100 threshold, underscoring...
🛞 Covered Call Trade Management
In this episode the host reviews a recent earnings event and observes that the stock is stabilizing, hinting at potential upward momentum. To capitalize on this, they outline a covered‑call strategy that generates upfront premium, reduces the effective cost basis,...
Fed Minutes Suggest Willingness To Hike If Inflation Not Tamed
The Federal Reserve’s February 2026 FOMC minutes reveal that most participants remain uneasy about inflation, which is still above the central bank’s 2% target. The minutes signal a willingness to raise rates again if price pressures are not curbed, underscoring...
‘No Landing’ Is Back In A Big Way
‘No landing’ has emerged as the prevailing global macro outlook, suggesting the economy will remain in a state of indefinite uncertainty rather than a clear recession or recovery. The author points to persistent inflation, aggressive AI investment, and AI‑induced job...
Dispersion Trade ‘Cash-In’ Risks Index Vol Spike
A historic surge in dispersion across large‑cap U.S. equities has pushed the one‑month change in average S&P 500 constituent values to unprecedented levels. The spike stems from a confluence of early‑year sector rotation, the AI disruption theme, and divergent earnings outcomes....
The Market Brief
The episode reviews the latest market dynamics, highlighting the impact of the FOMC meeting minutes and ongoing liquidity constraints that are driving sharp intraday swings. It notes a shift from AI‑driven equity rallies to caution, as investors weigh disruption risks...