Could the “Lag 7” Crater the Economy and Market?
The so‑called "Magnificent Seven" mega‑cap stocks have broken a critical support level and are now testing the 200‑day moving average. Their relative performance chart is forming an inverted saucer top, a pattern often seen before sharper declines. Analysts warn that this technical weakness could spill over into broader market sentiment. The article suggests that without a bounce, the rally that lifted the index may be at risk of stalling.
Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA-Based Tariffs, Doesn’t Rule on Refunds (“Likely to Be a ‘Mess’”)
The Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) in a 6‑3 decision, covering both reciprocal trade‑deficit tariffs and fentanyl‑related duties. Over half of the tariff revenue collected in recent years...
Inflation’s Back In America. Not That It Ever Left
The Federal Reserve’s January FOMC minutes confirm that inflation remains entrenched in the United States, contrary to earlier optimism. Core consumer‑price index rose 0.3% month‑over‑month, keeping annual inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. The minutes show policymakers acknowledging persistent price...
Government Dysfunction Torpedoes US Economic Growth
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations. This marks a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% surge recorded in the preceding quarter and is the slowest expansion since...
Research Review | 20 February 2026 | Forecasting Returns
Recent academic research sharpens the tools investors use to forecast long‑term returns and market risk. Rui Ma et al. show that a market‑cap‑weighted Component CAPE ratio aligns prices and earnings, delivering out‑of‑sample R² above 50 %. Javier Estrada confirms that valuation multiples...
M'tourist Private Feed Recap
In this private feed episode, Kevin Muir reviews the latest macroeconomic data and market trends, focusing on recent inflation reports, central bank policy shifts, and emerging market dynamics. He highlights how unexpected CPI readings are reshaping bond yields and discusses...
If The ‘Smart Money’ Is A Contrarian Indicator, It’s Time To Sell
Recent data show institutional investors have poured a record $158 billion into U.S. equities during the last quarter, even as inflation remains above target and the Federal Reserve signals further rate hikes. The article argues that when the so‑called “smart money”...
Problems at Yelp (YELP)
The episode dissects Yelp’s deteriorating business model, highlighting a sharp slowdown in revenue growth and a recent year‑over‑year decline driven by weaker ad clicks and economic uncertainty. It argues that a toxic sales culture, high‑pressure outbound tactics, and a disgruntled...
TMTB Morning Wrap
The episode opens with a market snapshot and escalating US‑Iran tensions before diving into earnings from DoorDash (DASH), Booking Holdings (BKNG), eBay (EBAY), Carvana (CVNA) and FIG. DoorDash reported strong 4Q25 growth in gross order value and EBITDA but missed...
Fixed Income Disaster: Will Investors Ever Forget?
The article argues that quantitative easing and expansive fiscal policies have propelled equities while leaving long‑duration bonds lagging, with gold emerging as the top performer since 2022. Chart data shows the S&P 500 up over 700% since 2010, whereas TLT...
Drawing Lines in the Sand
The equal‑weighted S&P 500 continues a well‑defined uptrend, indicating intermediate‑term bullish momentum. In contrast, the broader, cap‑weighted U.S. equity averages remain confined to tight trading ranges, reflecting short‑term indecision. Meanwhile, the VVIX—volatility of the VIX—has stayed above the 100 threshold, underscoring...
🛞 Covered Call Trade Management
In this episode the host reviews a recent earnings event and observes that the stock is stabilizing, hinting at potential upward momentum. To capitalize on this, they outline a covered‑call strategy that generates upfront premium, reduces the effective cost basis,...
Fed Minutes Suggest Willingness To Hike If Inflation Not Tamed
The Federal Reserve’s February 2026 FOMC minutes reveal that most participants remain uneasy about inflation, which is still above the central bank’s 2% target. The minutes signal a willingness to raise rates again if price pressures are not curbed, underscoring...
‘No Landing’ Is Back In A Big Way
‘No landing’ has emerged as the prevailing global macro outlook, suggesting the economy will remain in a state of indefinite uncertainty rather than a clear recession or recovery. The author points to persistent inflation, aggressive AI investment, and AI‑induced job...
Dispersion Trade ‘Cash-In’ Risks Index Vol Spike
A historic surge in dispersion across large‑cap U.S. equities has pushed the one‑month change in average S&P 500 constituent values to unprecedented levels. The spike stems from a confluence of early‑year sector rotation, the AI disruption theme, and divergent earnings outcomes....
The Market Brief
The episode reviews the latest market dynamics, highlighting the impact of the FOMC meeting minutes and ongoing liquidity constraints that are driving sharp intraday swings. It notes a shift from AI‑driven equity rallies to caution, as investors weigh disruption risks...
The Great Valuation Rotation Of The Roaring 2020s
Since the pandemic, large‑cap stocks have outpaced mid‑ and small‑cap peers, but that dynamic shifted late last year as investors flagged riskier earnings and stretched valuations for the S&P 500. Meanwhile, SMidCap earnings have begun to climb while their valuations...
The Economy Is Splitting in Two: How to Trade the Rotation
The episode explains how the U.S. economy is diverging into two distinct regimes—one of robust growth and inflation resilience, the other of slowing activity and tighter monetary policy—and how this split is driving market rotations. It outlines the macro drivers...
Where Is Money Flowing Today?
A Finviz‑sourced heatmap reveals today’s capital allocations across U.S. equities, highlighting strong inflows into technology and renewable‑energy stocks while energy and financials lag. The visual shows green‑colored leaders posting double‑digit gains, contrasted with red zones where sectors such as utilities...
Daniel Marchese
Daniel Marchese serves as an analyst at All Star Charts and co‑runs The Chart Report, a platform that delivers a steady stream of annotated charts with actionable insights on stocks, markets, trends, and sectors. His analysis zeroes in on price...
‘Magnificent’ Mega-Cap Margins Mask ‘Surging’ C-Suite Expense Angst
The S&P 500’s mega‑cap companies posted record‑high profit margins in Q4 2025, driven by strong pricing power and cost efficiencies. However, the earnings releases also revealed a sharp rise in C‑suite compensation and related overhead, outpacing earnings growth. Analysts note...
☕ Did We Just Miss the Turn in Dutch Bros?
In this episode, Edward Corona examines Dutch Bros (BROS), a drive‑thru coffee chain that just reported one of its strongest quarters, asking whether the stock is showing an early momentum shift that could signal a broader market turn. He breaks...
DEEP DIVE: 10 Reasons To Remain Optimistic About The US Economy
The Treasury estimates average tax refunds will rise to about $4,000 this year, driven by the retroactive tax cuts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Higher refunds boost disposable income, reigniting consumer spending after a recent flattening. Meanwhile, Baby...
🛒 Instacart (CART): The EPS Miss That Didn’t Matter
In this episode Edward Corona examines Instacart’s (CART) recent earnings report, highlighting that while the company missed GAAP EPS expectations, its stock surged over 9%. He explains that the market focused on underlying growth metrics—especially rising customer spend—and ignored the...
Bonds, Consumers Doubt BLS Jobs Narrative With GDP Due
The U.S. will release its Q4 2025 GDP figures this week, a data point that could reshape expectations for the nation’s growth trajectory. Meanwhile, bond markets are reacting to growing skepticism about the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs narrative, with...
WATCH YOUR BIDS (S2026 E03)
In this episode, Goldman Sachs discusses the growing pains in the quantitative investing space, while Carlyle warns that AI exposure has become oversized across many portfolios. Scott Bessent revisits his earlier stance on Warsh’s balance sheet reduction, indicating a potential...
MAG7 FREE CASH FLOW COLLAPSE
The episode examines the recent collapse in free cash flow among the MAG7—Microsoft, Apple, Google (Alphabet), Amazon, and Meta—highlighting how their once robust cash generation has sharply deteriorated. It explores the drivers behind this decline, including macroeconomic headwinds, higher capital...
US Inflation Benign With One Glaring Caveat
The latest U.S. inflation report appears modest, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ decision to assign a zero year‑over‑year change to housing components that were not surveyed during the recent government shutdown artificially depresses the CPI reading. This methodological adjustment...
TMTB Morning Wrap
The episode reviews a flat QQQ market after CPI data and a broad Asian sell‑off, then dives into earnings from Arista Networks (ANET), Applied Materials (AMAT), Roku, CarT, and Airbnb. Arista beat expectations, raised its FY26 growth outlook to ~25%...
TMTB EOD Wrap
The episode discusses the recent market downturn, highlighted by a 2% drop in QQQs, as AI disruption spreads beyond software and internet sectors into areas like property management and freight logistics. It examines how AI is turning into a net...
Data Center REITs Are A Conservative Way To Play AI
The AI spending surge is rewarding infrastructure providers more than software developers, with data‑center REITs emerging as a conservative play on the trend. Equinix and Digital Realty benefit directly from hyperscalers’ massive compute investments, delivering immediate revenue growth. Equinix reported...
TMTB EOD Wrap
The episode reviews a rough day for tech stocks, with the QQQ index up modestly while most internet and software names slump amid an accelerating AI narrative. Host Citrini describes an "AI Disruption Discount" hitting vertical SaaS, ad platforms, and...
🏹 Robinhood: Strong Platform, Weak Crypto, Split Narrative
The episode dissects Robinhood's latest earnings, highlighting a modest EPS beat but a revenue miss at $1.28 billion, with investors zeroing in on the platform's faltering crypto segment. It examines how the slowdown in crypto trading revenue is weighing on the...
AI Disrupts Financials. Bad Data Misleads On Economy.
Altruist, a wealth‑management startup, rolled out AI‑driven tax‑planning tools, prompting a sharp sell‑off in legacy financial firms such as Charles Schwab, LPL Financial and Morgan Stanley. The reaction reflects investor anxiety that AI could erode traditional advisory revenue streams. Despite...
Americans’ Credit Card Balance Hits $1.3 Trillion
The New York Federal Reserve’s latest household‑debt report shows U.S. credit‑card balances climbing to a record $1.3 trillion in the fourth quarter, while the number of open accounts also hit an all‑time high. The surge reflects persistent consumer spending despite elevated...
US Employment Costs Are Still Falling
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Employment Cost Index (ECI) fell for the second straight quarter, marking the slowest annual wage growth in more than four years. In Q4, total compensation rose just 2.8% year‑over‑year, down from...
American Consumers Slam On The Brakes
The U.S. Commerce Department reported that January 2026 consumer spending stalled, with retail sales slipping amid unusually cold weather. Month‑over‑month retail sales fell 1.2%, while personal consumption expenditures dropped 0.8% year‑over‑year. Analysts say the weather‑induced headwind temporarily depressed demand, but...
The Market Brief
The episode reviews the S&P 500’s pause just short of record highs as investors await upcoming U.S. economic data, starting with retail sales. It highlights that technology stocks led the recent rally, buoyed by AI news from OpenAI, and that...
Emerging Markets Continuing To Emerge
The US MSCI index has underperformed global peers in 2025, ending a year of relative strength. Investors are shifting toward high‑growth emerging‑market stocks such as South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, and Taiwan, while Japan rallied 5.7% after a decisive election. The...
Despite 4 Years of Mass-Layoffs at Alphabet & Amazon, Headcount Rose in 2025, Nearly Flat with Peak, as Hiring Continued
Alphabet’s 2025 year‑end headcount rose by 7,497 employees, barely below its 2023 peak, while Amazon added roughly 20,000 workers to reach 1.576 million, just 2% shy of its 2021 high. Both companies experienced massive hiring surges in 2020‑21—Alphabet grew 60% and...
💊 Hims & Hers: When the Growth Story Runs Into the Regulator
In this episode Edward Corona dissects the sudden 16% plunge of Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), linking it to a dual blow from GLP‑1 hype‑driven expectations and mounting legal and FDA scrutiny. He explains how lawsuits and regulatory pressure are...
Will Job Losses Spoil America’s ‘Goldilocks Plus’ Economy?
The United States continues to be described as a ‘Goldilocks Plus’ economy, balancing low inflation with solid growth. Recent data show the labor market still tight, but a wave of layoffs in technology and manufacturing raises concerns. Analysts warn that...
The Biggest Buyer Of US Stocks Isn’t Going Away
Investors are confronting a new capital‑allocation landscape as hyper‑scale cloud firms pour record capex into AI infrastructure, squeezing the cash traditionally earmarked for share buybacks. The article argues that despite this shift, the market’s largest shareholder – passive index funds...
Software Company monday.com Plunges 22% Today, -82% From High, -50% From IPO Price, Into Our Imploded Stocks
Monday.com’s shares tumbled 22% to about $76.70 after its earnings release, marking a record‑low close. The stock is now 82% below its November 2021 peak and 51% beneath the $155 IPO price. While Q4 revenue rose 25% to $334 million and beat...
A New Oil Era—Or Just Noise? The Venezuela Factor Lifts Big Oil
Big Oil’s XLE ETF has surged 19.1% year‑to‑date, outpacing the clean‑energy ICLN’s 13.2% gain. The rally follows the Trump administration’s move to ease sanctions on Venezuela, a country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves. While the prospect of tapping...
WELL: What To Do When Your Stock Gets Overvalued
The author revisits his "Buy right and sit tight" philosophy after confronting overvaluation in two holdings—Walmart (WMT) and senior‑housing REIT Welltower (WELL). While Walmart’s stock surged to a 50x forward P/E, the author sold too early, missing upside, yet still...
America’s Tarnished Statistics Agency Takes Center Stage
The U.S. Census Bureau, long criticized for data gaps, is now thrust into the national spotlight as Congress debates a 15% budget cut for FY2027. Lawmakers argue the agency’s methodology has become politicized, citing recent appointments that could sway demographic...
🩺 Molina Healthcare Deep Dive: When the Math Breaks, the Stock Pays the Price
In this episode, Edward Corona dissects Molina Healthcare’s disastrous earnings report, highlighting a stark mismatch between projected rates and actual costs that caused the stock to plunge over 25% in a single day. He breaks down the underlying financial math,...
DEEP DIVE: Meet Kevin Warsh
President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as chair in May. Warsh, praised for his professional pedigree and youthful appearance, is expected to secure a smooth Senate confirmation once the president ends his criticism...
Here We Go Again on Inflation: Used Vehicle Prices Jump in January, Expected to Jump More in Record Tax-Refund Season
Used‑vehicle auction prices surged 2.4% in January, outpacing the typical 0.4% seasonal gain, as Manheim reports stronger retail demand and tighter wholesale supply. Larger-than‑usual tax refunds, driven by new 2025 tax credits, are fueling bigger down‑payments and pushing prices higher....