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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Ventas $VTR the Fin Prop REIT, eclipsing highs going back to 2013 as REITS start to kick into gear again with Utilities to join the recent strength seen in Staples, Telco @IBDinvestors @marketsurge Strength in these defensives is more than absolute performance/breakouts but is happening on Sector relative charts vs. Equal-wgtd SPX (to eliminate it being simply vs. TECH) No need to bottom fish in Tech when there are plenty of great looking Defensive breakouts happening everywhere (Happy early Pres. Day Wkd All ) I list my FAVORITE within the REITS and Utilities in tonight's piece https://t.co/v0f4RME3on
Whose ready for the short-squeeze in software over the next week because the 26 year-old analysts at the multi-platform funds convinced their PM's to go max short? Then we'll get the Consumer Staples pullback at the same time, when all the...
The big issue is Tech Stocks have peaked, are on technically shaky ground ---AND this is coming from a starting point of stretched Valuations. https://t.co/3QKdtdJm7n
We've been saying all month that February is the banana peel month. Be aware the second half of the month is when trouble usually happens. https://t.co/Nv67B6dKQS
Wild market. We haven't seen anything like this since the dotcom bubble burst. Over the last 8 sessions, 115 stocks in the S&P 500 have decline 7% or more in a single day. The average drawdown when that happens is...
What if a bunch of stocks just got kind of expensive, are selling off, and we need a narrative? Just sayin…
Software stocks are struggling again today. $IGV (iShares Software ETF) is essentially back to last week's panic lows. Don't forget there's another type of software, "programmable money," crypto. Bitcoin (blue) with the software index (orange). They are the same thing. https://t.co/tLEELqcWcJ
Worst sell-off in this logistics/tech company since 1998 (LTCM & Russian Debt Crisis) $EXPD Bigger than Tariffs, March 2020, 2008. AI Fears https://t.co/pSckCN9oYm
So, for the record: The trade deficit in the first 11 months of the Trump administration was $839.5B. In the same period in 2024, the final Biden year, it was $806.6B. And if you think this year's performance is a...
-$3.6T in 90 minutes Gold fell 3.76%, wiping out nearly $1.34T in market cap. Silver dropped 8.5%, losing around $400B in market value. The S&P 500 declined 1%, erasing $620B. Nasdaq slid more than 1.6%, shedding $600B. The crypto...
How is the "newborn" buy industrials, energy and metals instead of tech crowd feeling today?
$SLV having big trouble getting above 75.00 again...which still won't be enough to restore confidence. Big inflation report ahead...precious metals may see a big reaction.
The market is more in “AI fear” mode than “AI bubble” mode currently Everyone fears the left tail in their business
Tough year to be a Palantir bull. $PLTR is down 30% YTD with no sign of reversal. Are you buying this dip?
Wall Street expects a cooler month for headline inflation but a hotter month for core in January Headline CPI: 0.26% m/m, 2.5% y/y (down from 0.31% m/m and 2.7% y/y in December) Core CPI: 0.34% m/m, 2.5% y/y (core m/m accelerating from...
Since the start of 2025: S&P 500 +19.5% European stocks +45.3% Emerging markets +50.8% Asian stocks +55.9% https://t.co/lrZrKKIC4x
How might the Fed/Treasury do that? One possibility is to cut short rates to steepen the yield curve, and deregulate the banks into buying the long end so that the Fed’s balance sheet can be “privatized.” If those QE assets...
Things have been quiet on the rate side, with the 10-year yield trading at around 4 ¼ percent and expectations for a few more rate cuts (down to 3.1%) holding firm. We will likely soon have a lot more coordination between...
10 Thursday AM Reads: -Fidelity Contrafund’s Will Danoff’s Secret Sauce -200 lines of markdown just triggered a $285 billion sell-off —what broke -Your stocks have been slumping, but you probably can’t blame Trump -Bitcoin’s Binary Endgame -Stumped Waymos Driven From Philippines https://t.co/FLNkyDLJUD
Perhaps the trade this year isn't so much "sell America," but rather something like: "spend a lot more money everywhere else" - at least so far this year. For example, Asian stocks have made their best start over US equities...
The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is outperforming the S&P 500 this year by the largest margin since **1992** (YTD) --Dow Jones Market Data https://t.co/6EV9smAqNP
"When I look out over the next two, three years, a ripple effect for every dollar spent on $NVDA chips, there's an $8-10 multiplier across software and infrastructure" 🎙️ @DivesTech joins Dan on the latest Okay, Computer. https://t.co/kyBad40Wln
🆓 Wednesday links: focusing on forecasting, how NAV squeezing works, and the rise of the active ETF. https://t.co/bgzuhBy1Uq image: https://t.co/JRCEGjVQN2 https://t.co/PSs8BSV9vG
Off-Topic ChartStorm - Tech Stocks Tech has topped, what's next? Here's 10 charts outlining the situation and thoughts on the risks + opportunities: https://t.co/WKltkF9gOt https://t.co/k0pxNxZedy
Yen Carry Trade Is Not Unwinding Like You Think $USDJPY $FXY $QQQ $DXY Japan & China’s pressure on Treasury sales are weakening the USD, supporting equities + metals overall, without triggering a disruptive yen carry trade unwind. https://t.co/m6Mu3FpuRf
AI spending isn't a debate anymore, it's cemented. @DivesTech on the multiplier effect across software, infrastructure and data centers 💻🚧 https://t.co/TC1BjQAHtv
CBO is mostly dismissive of the effects of AI on productivity growth (overly so IMHO). They expect *slowing* potential labor force productivity as the modest AI boost to TFP is swamped by the reduction in capital services. I would take the over...
The average stock reporting so far this earnings season has moved 5.2% up or down, the biggest post-earnings move since at least 2012--Citi https://t.co/Avh8yKzn1V
Sentiment in the stock market appears somewhat mixed. The Investors Intelligence survey (below) does show that the percentage of bulls is near the historical highs (62) while the percent bears is near the low (15). However, that level of enthusiasm is...
On the surface a strong jobs report (130K jobs & unemployment falls to 4.3%). And just about every detail makes that stronger: participation up, involuntary part-time down, hours up, wages up. The mystery of strong GDP and weak jobs is being resolved...
Trump says lower rates would save "at least one trillion dollars per year." The federal government's entire annual net interest bill was $970 billion in fiscal 2025—and much of that is locked in at rates on previously issued debt that...
Analytically, the January U.S. jobs report supports competing views. The market reaction, however, was clear: traders have sharply dialed back expectations for a June rate cut. The big beat on January job creation, paired with a dip in the unemployment rate...
And it’s not just global earnings that have been showing momentum. Payouts (dividends + buybacks) have been advancing as well, as companies near and far have become more shareholder savvy. The growth rate of payouts has been the primary driver...
Small Warner Bros. Discovery Shareholder Blasts ‘Flawed, Inferior’ Netflix Offer and Backs Paramount’s Hostile Bid — but Will It Matter? https://t.co/NGSPvAdqOW via @variety
The earnings boom has gone global, with estimates in both EAFE and EM showing good momentum. The blue squiggles show estimates for the S&P 500 and the pink ones are for the MSCI EAFE index. The days of significant divergences...
This formidable earnings growth has allowed valuations to take a back seat for a change. While the 5-year CAPE ratio is up there at 32x, the n12m P/E multiple doesn’t seem too onerous at 22x, considering not only the earnings...
NFP BREAKDOWN : Unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% while headline number crushed the expectations. In simple words , this was a much solid NFP all across the board. FED pause will continue. Profit taking in Gold , SPX , NASDAQ on reduced rate cut...
Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US. The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings. As we head into this release,...
⚠️US HIRING IS AT RECESSION LEVELS: US hiring rate sits at just 3.3%, in line with the 2020 Crisis and one of the lowest readings in 13 years. Hiring is even weaker than during the 2001 recession and at levels seen during...
Will stock markets find enough to like in US jobs data? It’s all about Fed interest rate cut expectations. #Jobs #NFP #StockMarket #Dollar #Fed #Macro #Trading https://t.co/UBCpyuHxhZ
Total US consumer credit increased by $24.05 billion in December, far higher than forecasts of an $8.0 billion increase.
Look forward to discussing this AI driven sell-off and the opportunities in tech on @BloombergTV at 9:40 am with @mattmiller1973 and @daniburgz 🔥🍿📺🐂🏆🎯
Macro Themes Deck (148 slides) @HedgeyeTV 11AM tomorrow Sneak Peak: this slide shows our Long Credit, Short Software Theme that MANY missed https://t.co/sBbXGGtVAr
🔴AI is NOT the reason for job market LAYOFFS: Artificial Intelligence (AI) was cited in 7,624 of 108,435 layoffs announced in January, representing 7% of all cuts that month. Since 2023, AI has been referenced in just 3% of all job cuts...
Macro: growth softens, yields rise. Key: sticky CPI, Fed tightening, tight labor. Risks: stagflation, policy error. Trade: short US Treasury duration as real yields climb. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Markets turned more defensive Tuesday as early strength faded... In today’s CHART THIS: • $SPX stuck below 7000 • Bonds rally on weaker retail sales • $GOOGL below the 50-day • $AVGO trapped between key MAs • Earnings: $KO $MAR $GILD $HOOD CHART THIS -> https://t.co/pHGfUwqPar
MARKET RECAP 📈 The Dow Jones closed at another record high, now up 4.3% so far in 2026. All eyes on January CPI coming this Friday 👀 What the heck is going on?!? Let’s talk about it 🗣️
The ECI data out this morning is consistent with the thesis that underlying inflation is around 2.5%. And labor market looseness suggests that is more likely to go down than up. Wages ex volatile incentive pay have been steadily growing at...
$UBER one of the show's favorite longs hits a multi month low and is now close to -30% below its recent high. Crickets. @dougkass @KeithMcCullough
Financial stocks are "overearning" and subject to disruption. Altruist's tool is the tip of the iceberg. Today's share price declines are justified, imho - as pricing of industry product offerings will become more commoditized. This was inevitable. Trading at historic premiums...
