Delta Faces $2 Billion Fuel Cost Surge From Middle‑East Conflict
Latest: Delta Air Lines expects to incur more than $2 billion in higher fuel costs through June because of the US-Israel war on Iran https://t.co/pfNgi3ALzA
Chinese Interest in Iranian Oil Wanes as Discount Disappears
Chinese refiners are inquiring about Iranian oil, although it's not a wholesale rush given prices are still significantly higher than before the war (the ~$10 discount to Brent is gone). Story link at the end
Asia Pivots to Russian Oil Amid Middle East Turmoil
Asia’s energy reality is shifting FAST. As the Middle East’s supply of oil is disrupted by the US-Israeli war on Iran, countries are turning to Russian oil. RUSSIA = BIG WINNER. https://t.co/akGGPsbivA
Gas Prices React Asymmetrically to Oil Swings
Oil goes up, average gas price goes from $3 to $5.25 Oil goes down, average gas price goes from $5.25 to $5.24
China's LNG Demand Stalls, Shifts to Domestic and Pipeline Sources
Don't expect China's LNG demand to bounce back from the Middle East turmoil 🇨🇳🚢 China gets a quarter of its LNG from the world's biggest export plant in Qatar.. which remains offline. To makeup for the shortfall, China is expected to...
Energy Prices Plunge Despite Uncertain Hormuz Reopening
Brent crude oil: -15% TTF nat gas: -18% German power: -5% (and below pre-war) Asian coal: -1% (And yes, the Strait of Hormuz has yet to actually reopen, and we don’t know for sure what the ceasefire means in practical terms for SoH energy...
European Gas Prices Drop 20% After US‑Iran Ceasefire
EUROPEAN GAS PRICES FALL AS MUCH AS 20% ON US-IRAN CEASEFIRE 🚨🚨 About 20% of global LNG traversed Hormuz before the war. But not a single shipment has been exported from the region in over a month https://t.co/zFjTxnnhra
Inflation Surge, Market Risk Unmoved Without Economic Shock
We know we face months of physical disruption to energy and food markets. Inflation will keep getting worse. The question is whether risk assets will care, if the underlying conflict has been resolved. I suspect not...unless the economy deteriorates in...
Jet Fuel Supply May Need Months to Rebound Post-Hormuz Reopening
IATA chief says jet fuel supply could take months to recover after Hormuz reopening https://t.co/9qcnn6QlNE
800 Oil Tankers Await Hormuz Reopening in Gulf
POV: The 800 oil tankers stuck in the Gulf when the Strait of Hormuz opens up again. https://t.co/jmhUZYYjld
Iran Conflict Sparks 2026 Global Food Price Surge
Iran war impacting farmers in Iowa. This is an example of how food prices will escalate globally in the rest of 2026. This plays out badly for farmers in Iowa making a loss. But it’s an even greater tragedy for...
IRGC Slashes Hormuz Flow to a Quarter
15 ships per day thru Hormuz 5 mmb/d of oil (vs 20) 2.5 bcf/d LNG (vs 10) That's a starvation diet. Controlled by the IRGC #LNG #NaturalGas #EnergyMarkets #OilMarkets #Geopolitics https://t.co/ej80nFO2XR
Hormuz Rerouting Offsets Shortfall, yet 13 MMbpd Remains
Flow through the Strait of Hormuz doesn't need to re-reach pre-war levels to normalize global balances thanks to rerouting (and constant Iran flow) But we still have ~13 MMbpd of production shut-in That's how much more we'll need to push through Hormuz...
Oil Prices Dip After US‑Iran Ceasefire News
Please see the CNBC chart below for the initial oil market reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. #economy #oil #energy #markets
Spot Brent Lags Futures Yet Set to Drop Quickly
It takes an oil tanker between 2 and 4 days to go from the Persian Gulf to India, which is where the most severe shortfall exists. The spot Brent oil price (white) will be slower to fall than the futures...
Copper Valued at 4% of Global Debt, Highly Undervalued
Very intriguing chart. The copper market sits at roughly 4% of global debt — still multiples below prior peaks. A simple way to frame just how undervalued the metal is relative to today’s macro imbalances. Now layer in the structural demand tailwinds. Game on. https://t.co/wv1i1hARmY
Iran's Oil Pressure Backfires, Trump Gains From Ceasefire
Iran’s strategy all along has been to impose an unbearable economic cost on the US if Trump continued the war via oil and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Now, oil is down ~20% well below $100 a barrel. From...
Oil's Steepest One‑day Drop Since 1991 Gulf War
Excluding Covid, we're looking at the biggest one day plunge in oil since the first Gulf War in 1991 https://t.co/gjT5CUgwkE
US Chicken Prices Outpace Canada, Now Converging Post‑pandemic
I thought (likely incorrectly) that fans of the @FoodProfessor might like some context, so I made a couple of graphs. US chicken prices have increased far faster than Canadian prices in recent years and have basically tracked Canadian prices for...
WTI Crude Plunges 15% in Two Hours, Unprecedented Move
WTI - US benchmark - crude is down around -15% after the news alone. Outside of the negative oil prices from 2020, I can't find a 2-hour bearish move of that magnitude... https://t.co/4h8brCQFAk
Gold Surges 2.5% Post‑News, Breaks 20‑Day SMA
Gold acting like a 'risk asset' after the news. XAUUSD has rallied ~2.5% after the news and cleared its 20-day SMA: https://t.co/kI2dynsCl3
Open Hormuz Strait Triggers Massive Eastward Market Rush
If the Strait of Hormuz is open, get ready to watch for a stampede to the East. https://t.co/3rohg52Jti
Oil Slumps 12% After Trump‑Iran Ceasefire Opens Hormuz
Oil prices plummet 12% (and counting) after Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran 🇺🇸 🤝 🇮🇷 The deal is subject to an immediate opening of Hormuz https://t.co/idSwDqTWxx
Ceasefire Triggers Oil and Bond Yield Declines
Two-week ceasefire leads to drops in oil and bond yields. #oil #bonds #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Fuel Prices Likely to Rise Months Despite Hormuz Reopening
Fuel prices could keep rising for months even if Hormuz reopens, US EIA says https://t.co/4IPPfkJ9X9
Immediate Crude Cargo Prices Hit 2008 Peak
The price of crude cargoes for immediate delivery has soared to its highest level since 2008
Today's Brent Mirrors 2014 Levels After Inflation Adjustments
Dated Brent was at ~$105 in April 2014, before the BIG shale-induced rout in crude prices. Adjusting for inflation, that's roughly where we are today. And the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. (Also the lapsed appropriations note at the bottom of the BLS'...
Oil Benchmark Hits Record, Reflecting Iran War Shortages
A key benchmark for physical oil has surged to its highest level on record, showing that global crude markets are increasingly pricing in supply shortages caused by the Iran war. https://t.co/OCII5LIP6Z https://t.co/V7iFSd47Gu
Brazil Soybean Exports Dip, China Share Hits 7‑year Low
🇧🇷Brazil's March soybean exports hit 14.5 million metric tons, *down* 1% from last March. But the more interesting story might be the unusually large non-China share. Only 69% of Brazil's March exports went to China, the month's lowest in 7 years...
Iran's Oil Revenues Soar Amid War-Driven Price Spikes
My view on Iran's surge in revenues since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran with @CoffeeandaMike: "Since the war started, the Iranians have been shipping a lot more crude out of the Strait of Hormuz, they've been selling at...
Physical Brent Hits $150 Before Options Predict It
While the options market bets on Brent crude futures hitting a record $150 a barrel, in the physical market cargo prices have already got there https://t.co/mfaujswneF
Oil Shock Dampened: Prices Below Peaks, Economy Decouples
So far this oil shock is not quite at the level of previous shocks. 1. Inflation adjusted, prices still aren't at their highest 2. The world's economy is less coupled to oil than in years past.
Trump Admin Warned of $200 Oil, Brent Hits $144
Two weeks ago, we scooped that the Trump administration was modeling the impact of oil prices reaching as high as $200 a barrel due to the #IranWar. Dated Brent oil just hit a record about $144...
Consumers Face up to $420 Electricity Price Gap
Bill shock: The up to $420 price gap between “median” electricity plans and lowest deals on offer #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/sAmvh3Vg1x https://t.co/netLpw5rGJ
Inflation‑Adjusted Six‑Month Futures Spread Near Record
"After adjusting for inflation, the six-month futures spread is on course to exceed the previous record set in October 1990, after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and as the United States and its allies massed forces in the Gulf." @JKempEnergy https://t.co/26TVbx2H9d
Silver Nears End of Correction, Buy Above 68
Silver nears end of corrective phase; hold 66–68 support. If price stabilizes above 68–70, buy with targets 82/100; risk below 66. Volume and volatility compression support accumulation. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
General Caine Warns Iran Could Block Vital Hormuz Strait
MUST READ: “General Caine […] also flagged the enormous difficulty of securing the Strait of Hormuz and the risks of Iran blocking it. Mr. Trump had dismissed that possibility on the assumption that the regime would capitulate before it came...
WTI‑Brent Spread Hits Near‑record $5.83, Volatility Spikes
The US benchmark crude (WTI) premium to the UK grade (Brent) has extended as high as $5.83 today. Only two other times in history has the spread shot this high. Implied volatility (OVX) has only been higher when crude oil (futures) prices...
Chinese Sulphur Prices Surge Daily, Threatening Food Costs
I repeat, Chinese sulphur prices are up literally every day (save two) since war began. 24/26 Odds of this happening (if this was a coin flip) are 1 in ~200,000 This will have consequences for fertilizer and therefore food prices. 1/3
Chinese Sulphur Prices Surge, 24 of 26 Days Up
Sulphur in China is up every day since this tweet. Chinese Sulphur has had two down days since the beginning of the war on February 28th (24/26 days positive). https://t.co/yyTujRfjYK
Early Ceasefire Needed
“5/15..the [oil] storage..deficit becomes mathematically irreversible for winter 26/27... rationing...” “On 4/28,..spring nitrogen application window closes. No ceasefire..after..can restore '26 crop yields.” “ceasefire by 4/14..constitutes cascade deceleration [not recovery].“
Impending Bahrain Conflict Could Trigger Oil Market Catastrophe
I sat down with @JoshYoung, CIO of Bison Interests - the fund that returned 349% in a single year on oil. He told me this war is far from over. And the real crisis hasn't even started. "I don't think the market...
Customers Adjust Prices Amid Rising Fuel Costs
Truckers: how are customers dealing with fuel spikes? Are you getting price adjustments? (Pic from Gary Johnson out of Needles, CA) https://t.co/Hi9h5ywOyg
Futures
The oil futures market continues to price a big TACO. Physical oil quotes are sky high, but futures imply a significant improvement in supply in a few weeks. If the market moves to priced a much longer disruption — and see below...
Soybean Complex Becomes Oil‑Driven as CBOT Oilshare Hits Record
📈CBOT oilshare on Tuesday reached a modern-day record high of 52.8%, driven by unrelenting strength in soybean oil since the beginning of the year. This means the soybean complex is more oil-led than ever before, a departure from how the complex...
EIA Predicts Prolonged Persian Gulf Crude Production Disruption
The US Energy Information Administration (@EIAgov) is now forecasting a rather long disruption to crude oil production in the Persian Gulf. (Note this is wellhead production rather than flows via Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't appear to include natural gas liquids,...
Brent Futures Hit Record Backwardation Amid US‑Iran Tensions
Brent (physical and futures) still pricing for a short war Brent prices have surged into a record backwardation as the United States and Iran threaten to escalate their conflict by attacking energy infrastructure on both sides of the Persian Gulf. In the...
Prediction Markets See 75% Chance Oil >$130, Equities Possibly Mispriced
Wait - Prediction markets are pricing a 75% chance of oil $130+ by the end of the year, and a coin flip it's $150+? I feel like if that's true, equities are not correctly priced... https://t.co/GkFbvHEOZp
Houthis Threaten Bab El‑Mandeb Closure, Risk Oil Price Surge
The Houthis attempting to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait by again turning it into a shooting gallery would be a massive problem and would send oil prices into orbit. Saudis are moving their oil to Asia via the Red Sea...
Oil Price Hikes Supercharge Devon Energy’s Cash Flow
When oil rises, shale cash flow doesn’t just grow — it accelerates. 👇 $DVN Devon Energy 851k boe/d with $1.5B quarterly operating cash flow. Capex already normalized for flat growth, so upside flows directly to FCF. Variable dividend model amplifies returns. Trades...