Soybean Speculators’ Long Stance Fueled by Rising Crude
Bullish Soybean Specs May Depend on Higher Crude At about 19% of open interest, soybean complex managed money (hedge fund) positions are the most net long in roughly three years. Are speculators too optimistic despite a supply glut from Brazil? My graphic highlights one reason soybean speculators are the most stretched long since 1Q23 in the latest data: the spike in crude oil prices. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/1YmztE3JtX {BI COMD} #soybeans #crudeoil #futures #Iran @BBGIntelligence
Corn Speculators Near Peak Longs as Prices Hover $5
Corn Revisits $5 With Specs Long, Gas Falling At about 15% of futures open interest, net-long corn speculators may be overly optimistic for higher prices. My graphic shows spec longs approaching last year's 1Q peak near 18% -- about when the...
Unexpected Twist Challenges Narratives on China's Gold Sales
Big non-sequitur to multiple narratives in March about official gold selling & China's level of desperation. 👇
US-to-Asia Oil Shipping Costs Hit Record Highs
The cost of shipping oil from the United States to Asia by sea is hitting record highs. https://t.co/c8BCdLPsi8
U.S. Industry’s Shift to Natural Gas Cuts Global Price Exposure
The US was far more reliant upon petroleum in the 1970's for industrial fuel and products than we are today, compounding the price shocks of the embargo. Natural gas is more prevalent for industry today and US natgas prices are...
Dark Shipping Boosts Hormuz Oil Flow to 12 Mb/D
Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is up. You don't see that in publicly available data like these from Bloomberg, because ships now transiting are travelling "dark." I'd say we're now at 12 mb/d out of the Persian...
China's Fuel Export Ban Threatens Australia's Jet Fuel Supply
Note that the Chinese readout doesn't mention energy security at all. Elephant in the room is China's fuel export ban. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China last year.
Brent Bulls Bet on Escalation, Buying 22M Barrels
Brent bulls focus on escalation not mediation Investors remain exceptionally bullish about the outlook for Brent as prices grind higher and the United States and Iran show no indication of ending the conflict that has slowed exports from the Persian Gulf...
Food Prices Stable Now, Risk Rising Post‑2026 Conflict
Food prices are stable for now, supported by sufficient availability & high stocks, with only marginal inflation across major economies. But if the conflict persists, risks shift forward: higher input costs or shift to other crops will push prices up...
Boost SPR Now to Hedge Future Conflict‑Driven Oil Spikes
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Approximate capacity 714M barrels Current Status 415M barrels Just a thought, next time military actions might have consequences that may disrupt or otherwise cause the prices of Crude, fuel, gas to spike, you should increase the SPR...
China’s Coal‑Based Urea Shields It From Fertiliser Price Spikes
China produces ~80% of its urea from coal rather than (as most other nations do) natural gas. The method is insulating Beijing from rising nitrogen fertiliser prices. I wrote ⤵️ this @Opinion column about the Chinese coal-to-chemicals industry last June. https://t.co/TQg6HHD3J8
War‑Driven Food Prices Shift Slightly, Crisis Not Imminent
Key food commodity prices since US-Iran war started: 🍚 Rice: ⬇️ -6.3% 🌾 Wheat: ⬇️ -0.5% 🥫 Soybean: ⬆️ +0.6% 🌽 Corn: ...
Australian Coal Prices Surge 30% as Asia Shifts From Gas
AUSTRALIA’s coal export prices have risen by around 25-30% compared with the start of the year. Front-month Newcastle coal futures have averaged $137 per tonne so far in April up from $108 in January. Electricity generators across South and East...
Iran's Moves
What Iran means for the dollar: a perfect storm for the petrodollar - Deutsche Bank Research Institute https://t.co/gVdGKCUzyc Why have fiat as an intermediary when you could trade oil tokens for wheat tokens (or whatever) ? https://t.co/ocO6m7zPVd
Potash Prices Remain Stable Amid Fertilizer Market Shifts
CHARTS OF THE DAY: Not every fertiliser price is going up. Back in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, nitrogen fertilisers (urea and ammonia) rose shaprly. AT THE SAME TIME, potash fertiliser (potassium chloride) also surged. This time, potash fertilisers are little changed....
Taiwan Boosts Coal Power as Gas Supply Falters
KING COAL STRIKES AGAIN 🪨🪨🪨 Taiwan will increase coal-fired power generation to bolster energy security, as the war in the Middle East crimps gas supplies The Mailiao coal-fired power plant will ramp up output from its No. 1 and 3 units https://t.co/jXfSAf3HMo
Strait Opening Won’t Quickly Resolve Aluminum Supply Disruptions
The opening of the strait doesn't automatically fix the supply problems. As with oil - aluminium. EGA's is saying its giant aluminum plant could take a year to start back up after the strikes a few days ago. The strikes...
Demand Destruction Is Permanent, Decline Is Temporary
I AM GOING TO WEAR MY PROFESSOR'S HAT TONIGHT: ✳️"Demand destruction" is one thing. "Demand decline" is another. ✳️Oil investors don’t talk about “demand destruction.” We talk about “demand decline.” 🔸Destruction = gone forever. 🔸Decline = comes back.
Markets Price Today, Not Tomorrow—Explosive Shift Imminent
Markets aren’t pricing what’s coming—they’re pricing what is, says Jeff Currie. And right now, there’s no shortage. But when “later” becomes “now,” the market has to clear. That’s when things get explosive. #Oil #Markets #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics
Manufacturing Expands Despite Oil Surge and Negative Sentiment
Oil prices spiking from geopolitical chaos, yet manufacturing PMI just hit its highest level since 2022. Firms are expanding even as 64% of their comments turn negative. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/y8VyQR2euZ
Waiver Misses Domestic Oil Boost, Exports Surge
JUST IN: Trump's shipping waiver failed to increase domestic oil flows, but US fuel exports are surging.
Gas Prices Hit Record High Since 2004, AAA Says
BERNSTEIN: Gas prices yesterday “surpassed 2004’s peak to become the highest non-pandemic related gas price in AAA’s history.” ⛽️ https://t.co/lHbZWM1faL
Winter Wheat Condition Hits Decade Low at 35%
🇺🇸Only 35% of U.S. winter wheat is in good or excellent condition, below all trade estimates and down notably from late Nov. This is the week's fourth lowest rating of the last decade. Corn, cotton and spring wheat planting have just...
U.S. Petroleum Exports Hit Record, Reaching New Markets
U.S. weekly petroleum product exports surged to a record 7.9 mb/d for the week ending March 27, according to EIA. While weekly figures are volatile, multiple sources have reported U.S. product exports increasing to Asia, Africa and other areas. Trade...
Middle East Oil Loss Spikes Global Oil Prices
Yes...we do get something from the Persian Gulf. 8% of US imports come from the Middle East. More importantly, when you lose Middle East oil, all other oil goes up in price and demand.
US Energy Independence Is a Myth Amid Global Shocks
Just read a wild JPMorgan note on the current energy + war situation. Here are the spiciest takes 🧵 “US energy independence” is basically a myth. Even as a net exporter, the US is still getting hit by global price shocks—sometimes worse...
Hormuz Oil Flows Remain Severely Reduced, Markets Underestimate Recovery
Hormuz flows aren't coming back to normal despite what you hear, says @CroftHelima Transit will be a fraction of pre-war levels because Iran’s leverage depends on keeping energy markets tight. And even after a deal, the road back is long. Markets are...
Currie Calls Iran War Oil Shock Unprecedented, Like 1973+1979
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on the OIL SHOCK caused by Trump & Netanyahu's war in Iran: "It is the largest shock the oil markets have ever seen in their history... [It is] the culmination of ‘73 and...
Soybean Inspections to China Surge, Other Grains Flat
Export inspections destined for China in the week ending April 2 (mln bu): #corn 0.0, grain sorghum 2.3, #soybeans 18.3, #wheat 0.0 #oatt
Exports Lag Production; Inventory Loads Faster than Restart
Keep in mind that exports ≠ production. Production was shut in because after they stopped loading new tankers inventory capacity was rapidly exhausted—they'll be able to load tankers from that same inventory much sooner than they'll be ablet to get field...
China Logs Massive 2025 Crude Stockpile Surge
JUST IN: China recorded one of the largest ever increases in crude oil stockpiles in 2025
Demand Will Collapse Once Inventories Exhausted, Prices Surge
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on oil supply and demand: "Once we exhaust our ability to draw down inventories [in] mid to late April... demand has to come crashing down in line with supply. The key question is...
US Gas Hits $4.12, 38% 5‑Week Surge
Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.12 per gallon, their highest level since August 2022. The 38% spike over the last 5 weeks ($2.98/gallon to $4.12/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years. Video: https://t.co/e3t0Md56BN
Ceasefire Triggers Oil Drop, Dollar Decline, EM Rally
A ceasefire is coming. Two things will get repriced quickly when that happens. Oil futures will tumble and the Dollar will fall sharply. The latter is up on safe haven inflows to the US. All those inflows will unwind very...
Saudi Oil Price Surge Signals Phase Three Economic Fallout
From the Bloomberg article on “Saudi Arabia rais[ing] the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium.” This price development coincides with more Asian governments worrying about physical energy supplies—marking part of what I’ve termed "Phase...
Higher Oil Prices Mask Saudi’s Net Loss
Do NOT be fooled by those calculations. They are statistically biased and ignore many factors. The net is a loss. Will cover the details in today's Daily Energy Report. https://t.co/pVftS4kIhA
Saudi Raises Oil Price to $19.5, Asia Inflation Spikes
🚨 JUST IN Saudi Arabia has just increased its official oil selling price to a record high of $19.5/barrel. Inflation in Asia is about to skyrocket. https://t.co/dtEBhiWdgT
Singapore Fuel Prices Surge, Threatening Shipping Operations
singapore shipping fuel market going off the chart—this is shipping fuel shortage live. at that price, shippers will defer orders, park their ships and either wait till the war is over or go out of business.
Crude‑Gold Ratio Hits Historic Peak, Signals 2026 Reversal
Worthy Reversion Spark? Stocks vs. Gold, GDP, Crude Mean reversion can be profound when it's from historical extremes, and the relationship between crude oil and gold may suggest a reverse wealth effect that defines 2026. The roughly 86x January high in...
Commodity Exchanges Distort Prices, Not Discover Them
Is the commodity exchange model broken? When physical markets and paper prices tell completely different stories – in oil, metals and beyond – it raises a fundamental question: are exchanges still discovering prices, or distorting them? In this article I...
Oil Slides 2% After 58% Rally, Seen as Stock Boost
OIL: down -2% after inflating +58% in the last month, but Tourists will trade it as "bullish for stocks" (for now) https://t.co/uZ7JAkPj9u
Saudi Raises Arab Light Price to Record Premium
Saudi Arabia has increased its official selling price (OSP) to a record high. The state-owned Saudi oil giant told refineries in Asian it would charge a premium of $19.5 a barrel over the regional benchmark for sales of its flagship...
India's Russian Crude Imports Surge 94% in March
🇮🇳India’s Russian crude imports rebound sharply — up nearly 94% in March MoM and 10% YoY. https://t.co/O0zIu8LcIi
Qatar Aims to Resume LNG Shipments via Hormuz
Qatar is attempting to send LNG shipments through Hormuz for first time since the Iran war started 🚨🚨 If successful, this would be the first time a loaded LNG tanker has gone through Hormuz in over a month. ~20% of global...
Oil Inventories Falling, Price Spike Imminent, Catastrophe Ahead
According to Jeff Currie, distinguished economist and commodity market guru, we’re only seeing the start of what will become a major oil catastrophe. At present, we’re burning through oil inventories. Once inventories dwindle, oil prices will SPIKE. THE WORST IS YET TO COME....
China Restarts US Oil Imports Amid Middle East Disruption
China imports US oil for Asian fuel markets amid Hormuz crisis @asiatimesonline https://t.co/Iy0aRy8vam China is moving to resume large-scale purchases of United States liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil, as supply disruptions in the Middle East and tightening fuel markets...
Qatar
Dozens of empty Qatari LNG tankers sit idle across Asia 🇶🇦🚢 The world's top LNG export plant in Qatar has been shut for over a month, upending the gas market and leaving the nation's fleet of ships without orders Hormuz has also...
Mines Threat Alone Can Paralyze Hormuz Shipping
A few mines—or just the threat—is enough to close Hormuz Ships stop. Insurers pull back. Flows collapse. Clearing takes weeks to months. That’s the strategy: disruption without closure. #IranWar #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics #SupplyChains https://t.co/DlAEMOcmJF
Trump’s Iran Ultimatum Spikes Oil, Fuels Market Volatility
Trump's 48-hour Iran ultimatum just sent oil futures through the roof. This geopolitical tension could spell trouble for broader markets. Going live in 2 hours to trade this volatility with our DOTS indicator signals. https://t.co/66dSROeuCi https://t.co/E2Zf77HxKR
War May End, but Oil Supply Disruptions Linger
According to Jeff Currie, distinguished economist and commodity market guru, even if the US-ISRAELI war on Iran ends soon, the damage to supply chains has been done. Oil flows will be disrupted for months or years. https://t.co/SxmxwhkvAY