Libya’s Oil Steady, Prices Surge, Dinar Jumps 27%
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Libya's oil production has stabilized at ~1.3 million barrels/day and the price has SOARED. As night follows day, the Libyan dinar APPRECIATED by 27% vs. the USD. https://t.co/5PPdIEUYSV
Rising Energy Prices Trigger Systemic Cost‑of‑Living Surge
This isn’t just about oil. It’s a shift in the entire system. Energy → food → cost of living When energy moves structurally higher, everything built on top of it follows. That means: Higher food prices More pressure on households Less margin for error And a move away...
China's Sulphuric Acid Export Ban Boosts Copper Prices
Chinese authorities have announced that China will not be allowed to export sulphuric acid from next month, with the only exception being electronic‑grade sulphuric acid. This means that neither smelter acid nor sulphur‑based acid can be exported will be able...
Wheat and Rice Prices Slip Below Pre‑War Levels
Food shock? Food crisis? Well, the price of the world’s most important staples for food security (wheat and rice) is now below pre-war levels. From Feb 27, wheat 🥖 is down ~1% while rice 🍚 is down ~2%. And yes,...
Oil Prices Jump $1 as Hormuz Traffic Stalls
Oil Prices Rise $1 Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruption Both Brent and WTI crude oil prices advanced by $1 per barrel as traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping route remains nearly halted, impacting global oil supply chains.
Goldman: 10% Gas Price Rise Boosts Inflation
Goldman on what a 10% increase in natural gas prices means for inflation > https://t.co/RDkqRBzqV2
US Crude Exports Rise to 5 Mbpd, Still 8 Mbpd Short
What about the US adding to exports? It rose to 5m/barrels day from 4 last year and 3m/barrel in 2022. Obvs seems we are still short 8m/barrel a day... https://t.co/SkCnXO0dU9
Middle East Energy Shock Ends China’s Deflation, Prices Rise
Middle East Energy Shock Snaps China’s Deflationary Streak—Factory-gate prices rise in China for the first time in over three years @hannahmiao_ https://t.co/8yOC6VYhc5 https://t.co/8yOC6VYhc5
Renewables Shift, Not Eliminate, Energy Risk
Renewables don’t solve oil shocks, says @JasonBordoff They rewire the dependencies. Less oil means more minerals—and supply chains that run through China. And the economy's heavy lifting—mining & global transport—runs on fossil fuels not electricity You don't escape energy risk
LNG Rerouted to Brazil as Highest Bidder Wins
LNG is going to the highest bidder. This carrier is diverted form Europe to Brazil Map form @Kpler
Saudi Arabia Holds 31 Million Barrels on Western Coast
As of today, Saudi Arabia has 31 mb of crude in storage on its Western cost. (Kpler data)
Oil Climbs Despite Unchanged Hormuz Traffic After Ceasefire
JUST IN: Oil prices are climbing as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire hasn't increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Peak Oil Makes Conflict Over Cheap Fuel Inevitable
It is not good to have your cities built around a substance that is dependent on the Middle East not having wars Global oil has peaked. Now all we can do is fight over less and less available cheap oil, and...
Oil Execs Resist White House Talks on Iranian Hormuz Toll
JUST IN: Oil execs are pushing back on White House talks that could let Iran impose tolls on Strait of Hormuz shipments, threatening oil costs.
Record Prompt Backwardation Drives Extreme Spot Premiums
The vast majority of the “dislocation between physical and paper barrels” is very simply extreme backwardation, meaning the steep premiums for spot deliverable barrels (as BBG referred to them today, ASAP barrels) relative to later-dated cargoes. Crude futures curves have...
Ground Beef Prices Surge Over 20% YoY, Hitting Affordability
Ground beef prices CONTINUE TO SOAR. Prices are higher than during the pandemic and up over 20% from a year ago. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/20cGSN0AIn
Iran's 15 Attacks in 12 Days Cripple Oil, LNG Flows
15 attacks in 12 days by Iran disrupted global oil and LNG flows #OilMarkets #Energy #Shipping #Geopolitics #Hormuz https://t.co/ocx5vrbgxM
Hidden $28 Brent Spread Signals Market Danger
The S&P 500 just posted its 7th straight gain. The Dow turned positive for 2026. Everyone is celebrating the ceasefire. But there's a number hiding in plain sight that should terrify you: physical Brent crude is trading at $124.50 while...
Physical Brent Market Stays Robust; Prompt Oil Premiums Soar
The physical Brent market remains very, very strong, even if Dated Brent has come off from its all-time high reached on Tuesday (down around $15). Physical premia for prompt oil (or as my colleague @AlaricN calls it: “ASAP barrels”) are...
News Ignored Futures OI; Gold Up, Palladium Hits Low
News today did not lead to higher PM futures open interest (unless you count gold OI being 2.5k contracts off the bottom)... #gold 357k +2.5k #copper 228k +3k #silver 116k +0.6k #platinum 61k +1k #palladium 14.6k -0.6k new low
Messy Hormuz Reopening Fuels Shipowners' Profit Surge
The more "messy"/"inefficient" the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz is, the higher shipowners' profits are 🇮🇷🛢️🚢 @ed_fin on "Persian Gulf Traffic Jam" as tanker bull case: Apple🔊https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 Spotify📽️https://t.co/07NUjj4n74 1/2 https://t.co/yWohqK1at9
Attacks Shut Down Key Saudi Energy Facilities, One Killed
🟥🟥🟥Official Source at the Ministry of Energy: Operational Activities Halted at Several Energy Facilities in the Kingdom due to Recent Attacks https://t.co/YhaVlatjkT Riyadh, April 9, 2026, SPA -- An official source at the Ministry of Energy stated that important energy facilities in...
Earnings Shield Markets Amid Major Oil Shock History
The analog chart below shows the major oil events since the 1970’s. The green line (1990 Gulf War) remains the best-case scenario, namely a short war that produces a full roundtrip in crude oil. Even by 1990 standards, the stock market...
Oil Prices Near Double, WTI Hits $112, Brent $109
Crude oil finished the week at $112 (WTI) and $109 (Brent), making the current oil shock almost a double. https://t.co/7EKQWyQ7zM
Oil at $115, Backwardation Rises Amid Strait Uncertainty
Crude oil is now trading at $115 (as of Sunday night) while the forward curve has gotten even more backwardated. It’s unclear to me whether the backwardation is a manifestation of optimism over the Strait re-opening or the mechanics of...
Europe Faces Fuel Shortage After Hormuz Shipment Ends
So tomorrow Europe gets its last shipment of oil from the Strait of Hormuz. Based on that timing, if the Strait were to open tomorrow Europe's next oil shipment would come at the end of May. Reports are circulating that...
EU Warns as Nations Grapple with Soaring Energy Costs
EU sounds the warning bell as countries face soaring energy prices https://t.co/c7S4lxI7D8 via @suzannelynch1 https://t.co/rMfXvLzmAu
Oil Demand Must Plunge 11.5 Mmb/D, Risking Economy
Oil demand has to fall, writes @ericnuttall. Put a number on it: ~11.5 mmb/d. Let that sink in. There is no path to that kind of demand destruction without severe economic damage. No escape hatch. Stop buying the rumor. https://t.co/tQOLjUrEEQ
Oil Supply Becomes Fragile, Disruption Now Easy
Oil isn’t just scarce—it’s fragile. Cheap drones, missiles, and even fear can choke global supply. Disruption is no longer hard—it’s easy. This is a shift toward a more fragmented, insecure energy order. https://t.co/7xfbU20QFT #OilMarkets #Energy #Geopolitics
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Iran Ceasefire Sends Prediction Markets Into Turmoil
"contract resolved to "yes" following Tuesday evening's announcements, but its outcome has since been changed to "disputed" given continued disruptions to Hormuz Strait shipments and enduring hostilities" Iran Ceasefire Wreaks Havoc on Prediction Markets https://t.co/uv56XlWTW9
WASDE Raises Corn, Wheat, Soybean Prices; Trims Soybean Exports
Biggest WASDE changes this month were bumping up corn and wheat prices by a nickel a bushel and increasing soybean prices 10 cents a bushel, but cutting soybean exports slightly.
Oil Volatility Soars as US‑Iran Ceasefire Uncertain
Volatility remains exceptionally elevated for oil today. Back and forth in the headlines around whether the ceasefire will hold between US-Iran. The 10-day ATR has 'settled' at 9% - which very volatile. The US-Brent spread is still positive - which is...
Global Wheat Stocks Surge, India Drives Surprise Boost
Much larger-than-expected global wheat stocks from USDA this month, mostly based on larger supplies in India per its own govt stock report. Chinese soybean demand was unchanged. Corn supplies were a bit larger than expected. https://t.co/oVsPwLsIX7
US Natural Gas Prices Drop to 18‑Month Low
In the middle of what some have described as the worst energy crisis ever (worst than 1973+1979+2022 combined), let me tell you that US natural gas prices are falling toward a 18-month low of $2.6 per mBtu. (And yes, North...
USDA Holds South American Crop Forecast Amid Agency Updates
USDA left South American production alone this month. Interesting after seeing some increases from other agencies on Argentina's corn and Brazil's soybean crops. Conab will be out with its estimates on April 14. https://t.co/2Up1v7VTJr
USDA Lifts Wheat Stocks to 938M, Corn and Soy Steady
USDA raised its domestic #wheat ending stocks by 7 million to 938 million bushels, while leaving #corn and #soybean stocks unchanged. #oatt
Brazil Hikes Ethanol Blend; Argentina Lifts Corn Forecast
In case you missed it, some pertinent news came out of South America Wednesday afternoon. 🇧🇷Brazil wants to raise ethanol's mix in gasoline to 32% from 30% by the end of June 🇦🇷Argentina's Rosario exchange raised the 25/26 corn crop to 67...
Methanol Prices Surge, Highlighted in Chartbook
Methanol - another basic material the price of which has surged. More on this in the Chartbook Top links today. https://t.co/zsabi9bx96
WTI Prices Surge as Inventory Signals Supply Urgency
WTI comparative inventory reflected supply urgency over fundamentals CI increased 0.5 mmb and price rose $11.38 week ending April 3 $105.67 was far above any previous yield curve marginal price for current C.I. #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
Oil Market Frenzy Drains 80% of Emergency Reserves
"Oil Chaos Is Clearest in the Hunt for ASAP Barrels" https://t.co/txxSCuq97g "314 million barrels have been removed from the market already — almost 80% of the record release of emergency reserves announced by the International Energy Agency in March." https://t.co/KUX2MZYcbM
South Africa Diesel Prices Set to Jump R12/L
Get your medication, boys and girls. In South Africa, early projections (as of early April) suggest that diesel could rise by roughly R12+ per litre in May. This is partly due to the under-recovery + the expiry of the temporary...
ASAP Oil Prices Surge to Record Highs
Very good short note from my colleague @alexlongley1 about why the price of what he rightly calls "ASAP" oil barrels is going throughout the roof https://t.co/6dpWmdpJlG
Conflict Outcomes Remain Uncertain, Like Schr
Given "Schroedinger's ceasefire" and "Schroedinger's Hormuz re-opening", thought this was a potentially instructive chart from @johnauthers, via @Bloomberg. #HistoryRhymes https://t.co/86srIVeKMI
U.S. Corn Exports Surge, Wheat Mixed; Soy Near Lows
🇺🇸U.S. corn export sales last week remained on an above-average pace, headlined by Japan. Soybeans were near a marketing-year low but within expectations. Better-than-expected old-crop wheat sales were offset by a new-crop volume below all analyst estimates. https://t.co/oCqaZxzksH
Markets Care About Oil, Not Iran's Political Outcome
Regarding Iran, the market's primary concern is oil prices. Whether we "win", " lose", or fail to meet our objectives has little to no relevance for the market.
USDA Trade Estimates Stable; Watch South American and U.S. Corn/Soy
All trade estimates for USDA's supply & demand report due Thursday at noon EDT. Not many changes expected to headline numbers on average, though the ranges of ideas are healthy. Top items to watch are South American corn/soy crops and...
Oil Plumm
Oil had its 2nd largest drop in 35 years. Just a few days after Binance listed its oil futures - with 100X leverage. Yeah, that Binance - the money-laundering crypto founder who was pardoned by Trump. Then 6 million barrels of Brent and...
Oil Soars 42% While US Stocks Slip 1%
This is nuts... oil +42% since the war began, and US stocks have plunged all of 1% @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x Nasdaq, small caps UNCH https://t.co/8xxFActnDf
Reopening Hormuz Likely Messy, Iran Controls Every Barrel
RBC Capital Markets' @CroftHelima and co: "[W]e think the mechanics of reopening the Strait will be exceedingly messy, with Iran potentially having a vote on nearly every barrel that exits the waterway until Gulf countries can build more alternative access...