Commodities Social Media and Updates
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Commodities Pulse
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
If you’re following the fertilizer stuff you need to follow Josh. His main thing is not speculation (actually performs a service for the world by helping farmers) but his ags market insights were invaluable to me during early 2022.
A mental model for how to think about the current oil shock: As I said I’m sure 10 different economists have 10 differing econometric models on what price that flip occurs but you get the idea
$USOIL - Closed above the 50% retracement level on Friday. Next week it's headed to at least the 61.8% retracement level at 103 and possibly to the 78.6% retracement level at 110. https://t.co/vUmCz2yZlr
WTI futures price rose $7.81 (9%) from $90.90 to $98.71 week ending March 13 Higher price movement is likely on Monday based on 12-month spreads #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/qQdFuuupRU
If you need 100% of something and I take 2% of it away, you don't have enough of it. So, then, the market needs to reduce your demand by 2%. As it turns out, Americans will pay a lot for...
Paying in Yuan for Hormuz passage doesn't work, writes @biancoresearch Oil markets run on liquidity and deep capital markets. China’s financial system can’t absorb global oil flows, There’s no way to verify settlement currency at sea. #OilMarkets #Hormuz #DollarSystem #Geopolitics
Thank you @JMathieuReports and @tylerskendall for having me on @business Balance of Power yesterday, just before Secretary Burgum, to talk about oil, Iran, SPR, pump prices, and the federal government intervening in oil futures markets. @RapidanEnergy https://t.co/0RqDeHN4qa
Hard Assets vs. Financial Assets in a Multipolar World 2026 Coal $CNR +33% Oil & Gas $XOP +33% Natural Gas $FCG +27% Gold $GLD +16% Uranium $URNM +16% Silver $SIL +13% Copper $COPX +6% Nasdaq $QQQ -3% Mag 7 $MAGS -9% Banks $KBWB -10% Bitcoin $IBIT -19%
Brent & WTI crude oil leading YTD, Energy strong, gold hanging in there Financials & bitcoin weakest https://t.co/B5BLF2EwNT
‘The largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market’: IEA’s take on the Hormuz crisis https://t.co/H9zKo9tCi4
Brent above $100. WTI near $99. Strait of Hormuz shut. 20% of global oil at risk. IEA released 400M barrels from reserves — the largest ever. And it barely moved the needle. $WTI $USO https://t.co/Ue451KrbMz
$Silver - I expect it to hit the 20 week MA again next week or the following week. If it holds above the 20 week MA it will likely move higher into late April but not make a new ATH....
$Gold - Closed lower for a 2nd week in a row but it's still above the 10 week MA. As long as it's above the 10 week MA this is likely to be another consolidation that will lead to a...
Why oil shocks still hit everything we buy. “We should be very concerned, the longer the conflict lasts, the more prices will rise and ripple through the economy.” From petrol to plastics, another fossil fuel crisis shows how exposed economies remain...
Crude has been a rough player in the past too, in India. Our average crude basket, yearly, looks like this : https://t.co/vC7nJ09nnd
MORE US LNG EXPORTS 🇺🇸 🚢 Venture Global will move forward with an $8.6 billion expansion of its third LNG plant in Louisiana Global demand for US LNG is surging as the war in the Middle East cuts off shipments from...
Frank Holmes: Why Gold Could Be the Biggest Winner of the Oil Crisis https://t.co/1FnUMR2dSZ via @USFunds
Despite the recent rally, oil priced in gold has barely budged. That puts into perspective how undervalued oil may still be. And no, this is not negative for gold. If anything, it reinforces the idea that we are entering an era of structurally...
Is the gold rush over? The safe haven appeal seems to be fizzling out in gold and silver, the reason is probably something most are overlooking.
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook https://t.co/QsizGVkoI5 Prior oil shocks in 1973 and 1979 involved far larger price increases than what we have seen so far. Yet this shock involves a hit to volumes that is unprecedented...
US oil prices surge above $99/barrel, now up nearly +10% on the week. Once again, the US appears to be losing control of the oil market.
MORE COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN: Fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf are stuck. Fertilizer prices have jumped about 30%. US FARMERS ARE STARTING TO TURN AGAINST TRUMP. https://t.co/IwXKoWCUj0
Oil = 10yr = -SPX 1 variable market continued for another week and will likely persist until oil drops back below ~$70 when the Strait is back in business. https://t.co/349BroE6sP
Anyone know how we could possibly have gold over $5,000 with the DXY over $100? https://t.co/S8n1xWP4PR
JUST IN: 64% chance Crude Oil is over $110/barrel by the end of March https://t.co/mW0x32Mq3g
Gas is already pushing five dollars a gallon here, and remember this: when oil prices spike, gas prices lag behind. Which means this isn’t the peak. It’s the warning. Are we winning yet?!
EU is set to suspend some duty-free sugar imports for a year https://t.co/Air1ME1Muc via @LyubovEUWorld https://t.co/tBY6hUyKNr
More than “Five Asian petrochemical plants have declared force majeure in the past ten days because their naphtha supply was cut off at the Strait of Hormuz. The emergency reserves are crude oil. The shortage is chemicals.”
While the prompt Brent timespread has actually weakened a bit from last Friday, it's largely because the rest of the curve is rallying more aggressively than the front. Brent curve backwardation slightly shallower at the front vs last Friday, but backwardation...
I know Shanghai Copper inventories are at a record and believe CME may be the same...and yet HG is still not far off record high prices. Central bank gold buying - I feel a good proxy for anti-fiat shift -...
Oil prices still anticipate short war or early re-opening of the Strait Oil traders are still betting war between the United States and Iran will end relatively quickly - or that the United States will soon be in a position to...
$WEAT Daily. Big red to green in Wheat so far today. Market taking supply issues seriously, coupled with most of Wall St. underweight ags. https://t.co/qBclTKMZNJ
NEW: Why does gas set the price of electricity – and is there an alternative? Make yourself a tea (or grab a beer??) and enjoy my Friday longread on marginal pricing, ideas for market reform – & how to break the link btwn...
As oil prices surged on Thursday during the intensifying Iran war, President Donald Trump again urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, even as markets increasingly bet that rising energy costs would keep inflation elevated and delay...
Crude prices aren't what will ultimately drive the necessary demand destruction should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed. That job will fall to refined product prices, the things we as consumers actually consume. Singapore spot jet fuel prices are there already, over...
The American Petroleum Institute and CME (owner of the top US commodity exchange) are both pushing against some of the ideas the White House is floating to bring oil prices down. Reflexively, one would think that Joe Biden is...
When will the Copper-Gold ratio 'normalize' such that it will once again stand as a reflection of economic health? The unusual surge in gold these past months is still distorting it. Would be good to have a clear reading from...
"Gulf oil shock deepens crisis for Asia’s petrochemicals industry" https://t.co/4C3WI6qHaW "Prices of naphtha have jumped by half since last month to $875 a tonne" https://t.co/rNT2eRMXls
Oil prices aren't expected to fall anytime soon. Futures markets suggest oil prices are very likely to be high high during the midterms. https://t.co/5A4nd2c298
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens...
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
🇧🇷Conab made very slight trims to its estimates for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and corn crops. First-crop corn production went up, but that was offset by a reduction to the heavily-exported second crop. Projected soybean exports rose from last month. https://t.co/vXR8g5NOEG
Crude futures aren't telling the full story. See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below. Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical...
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
This move follows a similar decision by Air India earlier this week, driven by a reported 85% surge in jet fuel prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Everyone wants a Hormuz EZ-Pass but Tehran's primary leverage is keeping the Strait closed to *all* traffic. It's the total supply flow lost—not the destinations— that ultimately matters. And no guarantee that person with whom you're negotiating is controlling the drones. https://t.co/xNoSi9YCh5
Boolish Silver folks watching May Futures drop $3 and getting close to sub $80. If folks really really wanted more physical, they should have stayed long March Futures, the open interest is a measly 875 contracts vs 77,604 in May (FYI...
If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the...
CPI at 2.4%. Looks fine. Except $WTI is up 68% YTD and none of it is in the data yet. The Fed is trapped. Cut → inflation explodes. Hold → recession deepens. Goldman pushed cut to September. Futures say December 2027. https://t.co/WFbW5IQa0u
This is the week that oil markets started to wake up to not-so-short-term supply risks. Unprecedented outperformance of Brent third-month vs front-month in an up market (since at least 1989) https://t.co/moJqCod6kL https://t.co/0wKCN8bKco
