1979 Oil Demand Peak Decoupled Growth From Fossils, Not Power
NEW ANALYSIS: @ember_energy just dropped new report on how the 1970s energy crises decoupled economic growth from fossil fuels but not from electricity. Global oil demand per capita peaked in 1979 and has never recovered. Makes for a fascinating reading. https://t.co/Ehd4UR5bJl https://t.co/Z1XLOJcrkK
Blockade Risks Crippling Global Oil System, Not Just Iran
The blockade is meant to break Iran—but it may break the system first, writes @TheMichaelEvery & @BenPicton1 Iran's storage fills quickly—leading to well shut-ins & potential permanent capacity loss Removing ~2 mb/d hits an already stressed system and adds to what...
Refinery Cuts Threaten Buffers, Triggering Oil Supply Cliff
The system isn’t adjusting—it’s depleting. Inventories are masking the shock while demand is being forced lower, writes @HFI_Research If refinery cuts jump to ~8 mbd, the buffers won’t last. The cliff is approaching #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics
Dated vs Prompt Brent Futures Spread Widening
Dated Brent crude vs prompt Brent futures Normally pretty tight, but not right now. Mind the gap. https://t.co/sTrTsmJpQs
Hormuz Blockade Hits Malaysian SMEs With Triple Cost Surge
The Hormuz blockade is NOT a Middle East story for Malaysian SMEs. It’s an input cost problem on top of one you’re already managing. Most SME supply chains price raw materials in USD. When oil spikes, freight follows. When global risk...
Iran Conflict Boosts Copper Demand Amid Chile Production Dip
Chile — the Saudi Arabia of copper — is already seeing production roll over before any 2nd-order war effects. The implications of the Iran conflict for the mining industry are being underappreciated, despite the severity of the situation. This dynamic is...
Aluminum Peaks at Four-Year High Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Aluminum hit a new four-year high as Middle East tensions, higher oil prices, and supply fears lifted metals. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/aluminum-four-year-high-signals-rising.html
Hormuz Closure Could Add 0.8% Core Inflation
Economists at the Dallas Fed try to model the effects on PCE inflation of a one-, two-, or three-quarter disruption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz The DSGE model projects WTI prices peaking at $110, $132, or $167 per...
Executives View $100 Oil as Temporary Peak, Not Baseline
Most of the America oil & gas executives at conference last week I spoke with shrugged the current price as a short term development, as the market always finds a way. They spoke like it was almost a distraction to...
U.S. Oil Blockade Likely Raises Exports and Pump Prices
U.S. oil blockade is set to boost American exports and prices at the Pump https://t.co/imnRBifyQr
Physical Asian Oil Surge Forces Paper Prices Higher
My take @Fortune on oil prices: "Physical oil in Asian markets spiked past $150 a barrel; the paper market never climbed that high… The paper price will be forced to converge with the physical - and it has nowhere to go...
Global Energy Shock Still Unreflected in Prices
I agree with my friend and renowned oil expert Javier Blas. The GLOBAL ENERGY SHOCK has yet to be priced in. https://t.co/jGrLu4xyby
Why Oil Can Be Both Surplus and Shortage
Oil Surplus Meets Oil Shortage: What the Heck is Going On? How can the world have too much oil—and not enough at the same time? Energy economist Ed Hirs explains. #oilandgas #iranwar #uspoli #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/u24Q9ESql1A
Silver Breakout Confirms Ongoing Bull Market
Silver broke out from a five-decade-old pattern in November, signaling that a powerful bull market is underway, and that is still true despite the recent correction.
Henry Hub Natural Gas Hits Lowest Level Since Oct 2024
Henry Hub #natgas - that's the lowest weekly price back to Oct 2024 $UNG $NG_F https://t.co/KqYZQ2PcAQ
US Soybeans Plant Faster
🇺🇸U.S. soybeans are 6% planted, above expectations and historically quick. Corn is 5% planted, slightly ahead of last year. Winter wheat conditions dropped another point this week. https://t.co/Yy2wWIzMud
WTI Holds $88 Support After 22% Intraday Drop
WTI crude dropped 22% peak to trough in a single session after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement, but held $88.13 support on a closing basis. Still up +66.57% YTD. RSI is printing a clear bearish divergence. The $88 level is key. Hold...
Hormuz Crisis Slashes OPEC Output, Sparks Global Energy Turmoil
🎡The Hormuz Crisis Reduces OPEC Production by 7.9 mb/d 🎡Kazakhstan's Crude Production Recovers 🎡EU Dependence on Russian Gas to Increase 🎡Iran War, Hormuz & Petrodollar 🎡US Blockade of the Blockade 🎡Panic and Oil Hoarding 🎡Saudi Oil to China: Watch Chinese Inventories 🎡India to Get Iranian Oil, But...
WTI Backwardation Stays Massive at $6.06 per Barrel
The backwardation in US WTI crude futures (active nearby - second contract) is +$6.06... Was as high as +$16.50, but this is still enormous. Blue is the OVX oil volatility index: https://t.co/mGUKpZpzet
Crude Oil Won’t Reach Prewar Prices Until Late 2027
JUST IN: Analysts expect crude oil prices may not return to prewar levels until late 2027
Higher Oil Prices Need Weak Labor Market to Spare Inflation
We have had elevated oil prices before without much impact on core inflation, but back in 2011-2014, the labor market was softer, and wage growth was much lower with lower nominal growth https://t.co/sgut5B2XBG
Miner Rally Mirrors Early 1970s Bull Market
Miners haven’t truly broken out yet... In this new presentation from Thoughtful Money, I walk through why today’s setup resembles the early 1970s bull market. If you’re wondering whether this rally is getting tired—or just getting started, watch here: https://t.co/WVeReceJL2
IEA Anticipates Additional SPR Releases Amid Gulf Shutdowns
IEA ready for further SPR releases on top of the record 400 million barrels already announced. Even if this crisis ends by the end of the month the market is looking at upwards of a BILLION barrels unproduced given Gulf shut-ins. Won't...
US Oil Shift Doubles Asia Shipping Distance, Cuts Supply
Replacing Persian Gulf supply with US barrels doubles shipping distances to Asia This effectively cuts deliverable supply due to tanker availability. https://t.co/MorwvZn1VE
OPEC+ Crude Output Hits Record Low Since 1990
OPEC+ crude production fell to an all-time low for the expanded producer group in March. And for OG OPEC, its the lowest recorded crude production since Desert Storm in 1990. https://t.co/SUrjKb3ZLD
Spreads Reveal Risk Premium Amid Brent Rally
Everyone’s chasing flat price. That’s the crowded trade but spreads tell the truth, notes @tchiling Brent rallied on blockade headlines, but structure broke last week and is only partially recovering. This is risk premium, not full-blown tightness—yet. #Oil #Energy #Trading #Brent...
WTI Opens Higher, Volatility Index Nudges up Modestly
Thought WTI US crude oil has gapped up on the open and the OVX volatility index has jogged higher; both are still fairly restrained... https://t.co/v7dH8pjKVt
US Blockade Heightens Energy and Fertilizer Market Risks
U.S. Blockade Escalates Risks for Energy & Fertilizer, with implications for the commodity markets. #oatt #oott https://t.co/aGAVP1GhAe
Oil Prices Set to Stay High, Boost Energy Options Trade
JUST IN: Oil prices are poised to remain elevated longer, positioning an options trade on this energy stock for gains.
Cattle Poised for Major Correction Despite Bullish Hype
Cattle may have a sizable correction coming. The bullet proof to the upside mentality seems to have taken over full force.
EU Fossil Fuel Costs Soar €22 Billion Amid Conflict
Since the start of the Middle East conflict, the EU’s bill for fossil fuel imports has increased by over **€22 billion**, said Ursula von der Leyen 💰💰💰 https://t.co/driqaI4fOe
Hormuz Crisis Triggers Localized, Bumpy Demand Destruction
Normally I talk about the two main types of demand destruction: Price elasticity (i.e., gasoline is really expensive so I'll drive less or buy an EV) vs Income elasticity (high oil prompted a financial crisis and I lost my job) But given how...
Oil Demand Collapse in SW & SE Asia Underestimated
We are probably underestimating the amount of oil demand destruction already ongoing in South-West and South-East Asia.
Oil Prices Surge to $150 Amid Middle East Crisis
Physical oil prices are at the sharp end of the Middle East supply crisis - almost $150 a barrel for some grades today based on the LSEG numbers. OPEC meanwhile sees a relatively small hit to oil demand from the ongoing...
Iran Faces Imminent Well Shutdowns, Negotiations Uncertain
Looking at the limited empty oil tankers inside the Persian Gulf, plus Tehran’s onshore storage, Iran will need to shut in wells in 10-15 days (the same process its neighbours faced 5-6 weeks ago). Would that prompt Iran to change...
OPEC Projects 2026‑27 Production Growth in Key Nations
🔹OPEC's view of production growth in selected countries in 2026 and 2027. 🔹What do you think? What do you agree with and what you do not? Why? https://t.co/QAin921hCr https://t.co/WK2gAcAKWe
Australia Faces Diesel Shortage After Hormuz Crisis
Australia is uniquely vulnerable to disruptions in diesel supply,leading to a real diesel Armada heading there in the wake of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/phVWZTM4Em
Middle East Tensions Trump Economic Data, Fueling Oil Surge
🚨 Markets on edge as US–Iran tensions escalate and risk of a Strait of Hormuz blockade sends oil higher and stocks lower. Here’s my take on it all: Middle East headlines now matter more than economic data. Higher gas prices could...
2026 Oil Demand Rises 1.4 Mb/D
"In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.4 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), driven almost entirely by demand from non-OECD regions, mainly China, India and Other Asia. On a quarterly basis, the global oil demand in 2026...
Saudi Crude Shipments to China to Halve Amid War
Saudi Arabia’s crude sales to top importer China are set to halve next month as the war in the Middle East upends flows and lifts prices, according to traders familiar with the matter https://t.co/P8mgp5is3N
Nat Gas Enters Extended Seasonal Trading Window
Start of a long Seasonal window for nat gas as of today (courtesy Moore Research Center). https://t.co/mYPvrsOkle
Trump Announces Hormuz Blockade, Oil Jumps 7%
Trump says the US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz begins at 10AM ET Oil already up 7% and we haven't even started. I'm watching response from China 🇨🇳 How much pain are you pricing in for stocks today? 👇 $CL $USO...
Pump Prices Up 50
BofA: Price at the pump is up 50% from January low Energy 2026 EPS growth revised up by >25ppt since the Iran conflict began, but minimal cuts to consumer sectors so far https://t.co/eQAC20Kj0o
Crude Oil Joins 2026 ‘Up‑Too‑Much’ Risk List
Up-Too-Much Risks in 2026 - Crude May Follow Natural Gas, Silver Bitcoin in 2025, followed by silver, gold, copper and natural gas in 2026 -- and most importantly, crude oil -- can fall into an "up-too-much" category by year-end. There are...
Energy Markets Stay Calm Amid Third Gulf War Lull
We're in the "no-fighting, no-peace, and no-oil" phase of the Third Gulf War. The energy market remains incredibly sanguine: despite Monday's rally, oil and European natural gas prices are below a week ago.
Copper’s 2026 Rally Threatened by Equity Market Decline
Copper's Big Green Candle Risks Turning Red in 2026 The last three down years for copper (2015, 2018, 2022) coincided with drops in the US stock market, suggesting a dependency on a rising equity tide in 2026. Full report on the...
Extreme Fear Fades as Markets Weather Hormuz Tension
Trump ordered a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Oil surged 8% above $100. The UK refused to participate. France is forming its own mission to reopen the strait. And Bitcoin dropped... 1%. After 12 straight days...
Iran Conflict Triggers Oil Shortage, Reshapes Market Winners
The Iran war has slashed oil exports from the Persian Gulf, creating a global supply shortage that's just starting to hit markets. As prices are driven up and broader economic impacts unfold, winners and losers will begin to emerge. Full Newsletter:...
Iran's 13-Day Oil Shutdown Signals Permanent Damage
The sharpest Iran economic analysis out there right now comes from @miadmaleki, Iranian-born former US Treasury official. 13 days. That's when Iran shuts off its own oil wells. Hormuz blockade = nowhere to store oil. Can't restart them easily. Permanent damage. Not a...
Oil Surges 8.2%, Signaling New Quad3 Cycle Highs
Did you buy more Oil and Energy Stocks when they were on sale last week? Oil inflating another +8.2% here with immediate-term upside in our Risk Range™ Signal to new #Quad3 Cycle Highs https://t.co/ye9Xfr03uQ