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NEW ODD LOTS HOW THE IRAN WAR WILL SQUEEZE AMERICA'S FARMERS EVEN FURTHER @TheStalwart & I brought back @AgrisAcademy's Jeff Kazin and Mike Rohlfsen to talk about how surging oil and fertilizer costs will make things even harder for farmers: https://t.co/sk6083JH4Y
Airlines have been warned that they will face jet fuel shortages as soon as next month, risking flight cancellations
Difnt explntns gold selloff by difnt people: 1. Reporters/Jr. anlysts: high inflation ends case 4 rate cuts 2. Jr.Traders: Selling few green holdngs to lock gains & absorb portfolio losses 4. AdvisoryNewsletters: Iran selling to finance ... 3. Sr Traders: Margin...
Gold within striking distance of its February nadir as well... not far from bear market territory https://t.co/anEt7yJTiQ
I'm a fan of the debasement trade and think precious metals will keep going higher over the medium term. But the fact that gold keeps falling when it should act as a safe haven also isn't nothing. Gold is now...
Brent soars 6%... now $16-$17 above WTI... Gasoline futures jump another 8.5 cents... Gold and silver destroyed https://t.co/qLglGU9Cbr
Brent is at $115. As oil prices rise, the risk of a Trump TACO also rises. That in turn depends on dysfunction in global markets. At the moment, even with Brent up 70% from a month ago, markets are looking...
One of the most recurrent questions I’m seeing at the moment is – why are #gold prices not going up, when we’re seeing one of the biggest risk events in the last 10 years, and when gold was a major...
Brent is up 70% in the past month. This prices Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic at half its capacity indefinitely. With the Saudis diverting lots of oil to the Red Sea and Iran continuing to export, we're already almost at...
MUMBAI/NEW DELHI(Reuters)-India, a leading importer of fertilisers, is in talks to increase purchases from Russia, Belarus and Morocco as Middle East tensions and China's export curbs risk tightening supplies ahead of the summer planting season - government and industry sources
Average US gasoline prices have surged 37% since the January lows, rising to the highest since 2022. The absolute price level, $3.88, is still within the range of normal from a historical perspective. But it's rising at an rapid clip,...
European gas buyers need to panic ... now. Brutal for the more price elastic EM buyers here.
European natural gas prices keep on rising and have now more than doubled )+134%) in just four weeks from €29/MWh on 17 February to €67/MWh today. Geopolitical tensions and wars always drive up gas prices. Not a bug in the system....
MUST READ: Coal remains king — even in 2026. "... Across Asia, a sharp drop in liquefied natural gas supplies is pushing major importers back toward coal, undermining LNG’s long-held role as a stable energy anchor..." https://t.co/MZqvZYa8RD
US national debt just hit ~$39T fueling fiat debasement fears. Gold's parabolic run to $5,000+/oz & silver to $120+/oz? Classic safe-haven hedge against exploding debt, uncertainty, central bank buying & weak dollar. $gld $slv https://t.co/IcA8Eo0nGL
Reserves shouldn’t be for cushioning prices at this point… you may never know with the madmen bombing everything in the Middle East, there may be no fuel coming in at all… the reserves are for such times…. If it was...
European gas prices surge 30% after Qatar said the world’s largest LNG export plant was damaged in an Iranian attack (Still TTF futures are far from the record highs of 2022) https://t.co/FC5b6KjHpJ
World 1.5MBPD displaced by EVs in 2024 China in 2025 Oil market not about the 100 mbpd we use, but the 1-2 mbpd YOY change Oil markets break on variations > 1-2MBPD China's vehicle fleet electrification has just removed 250ML/day of China's demand...
The fertilizer crisis brewing because of Hormuz is going to be felt predominantly by people in some of the poorest nations on earth. Americans will only barely notice. Why? 1. The US, China, Europe, and other rich regions apply so much...
North Sea Dated jumps above $112/bl as Europe absorbs delayed supply shocks from the Mideast war. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/north-sea-dated-benchmark-hits-highest.html
Asia's Russian fuel imports poised to hit all-time high due to Middle East disruption https://t.co/VUFUxd0Npq
It isn't just about higher crude anymore , as various petroleum based products are soaring. We discussed this on the latest Facts vs Feelings, complete with St Patrick's Day gear and some I'm Shipping Up To Boston 🎶 🎵 https://t.co/zEoEFfsk2d
This won't lower gasoline prices. The issue is overall global supply and not acute domestic shortages caused by transportation shortfalls.
Concerns mount over rate hangover after wartime tanker boom ends ▶️Global seaborne crude liftings volume plunged last week; alternatives to MEG are replacing only half of lost VLCC tonne-mile demand, according to Vortexa ⏩️Oil at ses is down ⏩️Nobody will keep oil at...
Basically gold and silver have been ramping for months and months and months while everyone cited Truflation and deflation being the risk, when it finally became undeniable by both the fed and fed funds futures, new longs wonder why they...
Brent crude is trading around 110 while WTI (US-benchmark) is under 100 per barrel. The current Brent-WTI spread is hovering around $12, the widest it has been since April 2020 https://t.co/Ll4QYHc69V
This is a remarkable chart. Oil surges like the one we’ve seen recently have consistently preceded recessions. Chart by @thierryborgeat https://t.co/GpMNhNl06Y
Good morning Asia, Brent rising but also watch products as we consume products not crude. For Asia, Qatari gas is very key & for some like Pakistan, that is 100% of supply. For others, still a big challenge, such as India. Even...
Qatars industrial complex housing the world’s largest LNG export plant suffered “extensive damage” after an Iranian missile strike 🇶🇦 ⚠️ The plant provides 20% of global LNG supply, and was shut earlier this month. But a delayed restart (due to...
In my latest @ColumbiaUEnergy Energy Explained blog post, Neelesh Nerurkar & I argue that restricting US oil exports, once again reportedly being discussed in DC, would backfire—offering little relief to US consumers while imposing more significant economic and geopolitical costs
So much of this game is just trying your best not to learn the same lesson over and over again. The most recent re-learned lesson for me… common sense is nearly always a better foundation for a trade than expert wisdom...
Do you remember when oil prices topped $150/barrel in the wake of the Libya strikes in 2011? And stayed above that price for most of the next two years? OK, you may not remember it because you probably weren't thinking about...
Breakdown in COMEX Copper joins Gold, Silver and Platinum in weakening as real yields turn back higher and Bund yields on the verge of a major multi-year breakout @IBDinvestors Investors Business Daily @marketsurge charts of Freeport McMoran $FCX fell also to...
Not looking good. Crude exports down between 25% and 67% from the Middle East, depending on country
The heatmap below shows that the oil futures curve remains heavily backwardated, indicating that the energy market believes that the current oil shock is a temporary supply problem that will get fixed. That’s probably correct but the question is how...
Oil companies going to make reasoned judgements about prices before boosting production a ton
Powell: "Near term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks likely reflecting the rise in oil prices causes by supply disruptions in the Middle East"
U.S. CRUDE OIL imports into the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) surged to the highest for almost six years last week as refiners and traders prepared for a possibly prolonged disruption of exports from the Persian Gulf. Crude imports into the...
Oil just saw one of its biggest surges in 45+ years—driven by geopolitical shock, NOT structural change. Higher prices risk fueling inflation and weighing on GDP mildly. Not likely to fuel a SECULAR bear market in stocks, but with sentiment...
While Brent — the most commonly quoted crude oil benchmark — has been surprisingly well-behaved, Gulf oil prices have gone stratospheric. And JPMorgan’s oil analysts worry this could be a harbinger for the rest of the oil market. https://t.co/fD6tZ9vW81...
I know I am piling on here, but a reminder to those of you just tuning into oil markets... The Futures Curve is NOT a forecast... https://t.co/gyYIbj3Xqa
If Powell focuses more on the upside risks to inflation ( which is likely going to be the case ) I believe Oil can see some initial downside on this due to possible future demand contraction concerns. If that becomes the case...
Ouch. A standard estimate (ballpark) is ~ 10 mbd/ 10% of world supply is now off the market. Some elasticities were closer to -0.1, which implies a price hike of up to $100. This elasticity would...
$UKOIL - Brent oil is significantly outperforming WTI oil for obvious reasons. Both topped around $119.50 last Monday, but while WTI has only reached $98 today, Brent reached $110 at today's high and is close to the 78.6% retracement of...
20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. It's been disrupted for 3 weeks. IEA released 400M barrels from reserves. That tells you how serious this is. https://t.co/KrxQw3KVSX
it is true that 2026 is seeing the most sudden shock to oil and gas supply. But both 1973 and 1979 had a very significant effect on long-run output as well. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the...
Brent crude oil prices surge to $110/barrel. Israel strikes Iran's largest gas plant. Iran is now announcing that some Gulf energy sites are "legitimate targets."
War is inflationary. And these oil prices are before Iran retaliates on: Ras Laffan refinery – Qatar Samref oil refinery – Saudi Arabia Al Hosn gasfield – UAE Jubail petchem plant – Saudi Arabia Mesaieed petchem plant – Qatar #RefinedProduct #oott
The last time inflation was out of control, gold was down 7 months in a row from April to October 2022. https://t.co/OSEyr3dAKn
I think this is the most important question to understand moving forward. Asked @BobEUnlimited about what his checklist looks like for when oil shocks flip from inflation to demand destruction
