Iran's Job and Inflation Data Drive Oil Analysis
The key known unknown (to me) to analyse oil is the true state of the Iranian economy: jobs and inflation. I hear lots of tales, but I have little confidence on any. Reporting from inside Iran is extremely difficult. Economic damage is key for Iran’s incentive to compromise.
Price Caps Risk Shortages; Pay‑more Ensures Fuel Access
Forget the oil & gas profits debate, I’d like to be reliably able to fill up my family vehicle and price caps at the pump are a slam dunk recipe for shortages Fuel is a global commodity, and those willing to...
US‑Iran Talks Lift Latin American Commodity Exporters
Now that Iran and the US are negotiating, fear that war may escalate out of control is leaving markets. That's lifting EM oil and commodity exporters, especially across LatAm. Good news for Colombia, Argentina and Brazil. A replay of 2022...
Underpriced Inflation Risk: 2021 Gas Surge From Refill Delay
Still think this is an underpriced inflation risk, not due to the ME situation per se, though it doesn't help. In 2021, gas prices rose strongly too in the latter part of the year on the eve of the...
Crude Rally May Echo 2022 US Gas Decline
Crude Surge Could Track Falling US Gas Akin to 2022 Big green quarterly candles in Brent crude oil to roughly $120 a barrel have marked peaks and shifts to enduring red reversion since 2008. Has this pattern changed? Full report on the...
Corn's Tight Range Signals Potential April‑May Price Peak
Range-Bound Ags Ripe to Move - Is Up Sustainable? The agriculture sector may be guided by corn -- its most significant commodity -- which hasn't ended a quarter outside a per-bushel range of about $4-$5 since 2Q23. That managed money (hedge...
Silver's 2.3x MA Premium Signals Pullback to $50
Normal Silver Retracement Toward $50, Then $34 Not since 1980 has silver's price and volatility been as stretched as they are now, with reversion implications. My graphic highlights the metal at a 2.3x premium to its 20-quarter moving average on April...
India's LNG Importers Snap up Spot Shipments Despite High Prices
India’s LNG importers have accelerated purchases from the spot market, taking advantage of a recent dip in prices 🇮🇳💰 Several shipments were purchased for April-May delivery around $15/mmbtu (that's still 50% higher than pre-war prices) https://t.co/IuRfMTrXqs
Energy Prices Far Below 2022 Peaks, Economy Remains Stable
On a serious note, this utter nonsense from Luke doesn’t pass the simplest of reality tests. If you look at weighted prices across oil, gas, electricity, etc. in the West, we remain miles below peak 2022 prices - and those prices...
Speculative
When you know if it were 2021 this entire internet would be calling for $600 dollar oil, jumping over each other to share Zoltan Pozsar latest note, and warning of a 'molecule crisis' every hour but you just can't...
US Crude Inventories Drop, First Since Iran Conflict
Today, the EIA released data on crude oil inventories held by US firms. Since the first time since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, inventories have declined. STAY LONG OIL. https://t.co/sc7GCwRvTK
China's Food Security Policy Fuels Global Fertilizer Scarcity
China is prioritizing food security over producer profitability That keeps fertilizer cheap at home while exporting scarcity to global markets. China has a strategy The US hauls Bessent into a WH press conference to make false promises about $3 gas by September
Australian Fuel Crunch Deepens After Refinery Fire
Australia's fuel crunch is set to get worse 🇦🇺🚨 A major fire at one of Australia’s only two oil refineries will shut some of its production. The refinery supplies 10% of domestic demand Australia’s petroleum product supplies were already really tight due...
DRC Copper Climbs 10%, Cobalt Shipments Plunge
DRC copper output rose 10pc in 2025 as major mines expanded, while cobalt shipments plunged under export controls. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/drc-copper-output-growth-accelerates-as.html
California’s Energy Costs Driven by Policy, Not Consumption
Grok on California’s high price of energy: “It’s a regulated monopoly system layered with aggressive state climate, equity, and reliability mandates that socialize expensive fixed/policy costs onto volumetric rates. This creates high prices despite lower usage.” @tomsteyer, that kind of sounds...
Silver Poised for Squeeze and Price Surge
The Financial Times reports that SILVER is RIPE for another SQUEEZE and PRICE SURGE. I agree. STAY LONG or GET LONG. https://t.co/Y8DQhIXdge
Brent Oil Near Neutral, Watch $90 Support, $100 Resistance
#BrentOil Comp Doji Candle and Sideways 6 days. Support $90.4, $84, $73.2. Resistance $100, $103.9, $112.1. RSI 52 near Neutral. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish but Lines converging. Doing 8/21 Bear Cross. Top Bollinger Band $110.7. Midpoint Line $100. Bottom Band...
Asia's Energy Shortage Sparks Rationing and Black Markets
Rationing and black markets have already sprung up in Asia. Some countries have found ways around the shortage (for now), but that has created new issues for others. #iranwar #energy #geopolitics https://t.co/0wpmsFgat3
Imported Inflation via Energy and Food Remains Top Risk
“The biggest risk continues to be that inflation gets imported around the world,” first through energy, then to food & beyond: MS’s Ted Pick. Otherwise, markets will stay strong with even a “narrowing of the cone of uncertainty” around the...
French Corn Acreage May Drop 10‑15% Amid Cost Surge
🇫🇷Corn area in France could fall 10-15% on the year amid high fertilizer and energy costs. France's annual corn plantings are only about 4% of what the USA plants, but it plays an important role regionally, accounting for around one-fifth of...
Buy Oil Majors at February Low Prices
Purchases of international oil majors that are trading at their early February levels when Brent was <$70 strike me as 'money good' $XOM $CVX $COP
Oil Spikes Trigger Swift P/E Collapses, History Repeats
The markets have been pricing for a quick end, much like what happened during the 1990 Gulf War. The analog below shows that the surge in oil prices to $100 (in today’s terms) was quickly reversed, and with it so...
High Gas Prices May Spur Blame on Record Exports
Not saying it is right, but if prices at the pump don't drop further, it won't be long before consumers begin to blame "record exports." Surplus and $4.00 gas don't fit comfortably next to each other in our mind.
IMF Slashes Growth Outlook to 3.1% Amid Hormuz Blockade
The IMF has cut its global growth forecast to 3.1% as THE Hormuz blockade drives up oil, food, and inflation forecasts
European Physical Oil Market Shows Tentative Easing, Brent Below $120
Tentative signs -- with a lot of emphasis on tentative-- of easing in the European physical oil market. Dated Brent is falling below $120, and lots of offer today on the key trading window (compared to overwhelming bids in...
Complacent Traders Face Inevitable Corrections, Warns Broker
Had some messages on why I am so down on the cattle. I am not, but one advantage that a broker may have is seeing when their accounts become to complacent and only see higher prices forever. Corrections...
European Wholesale Power Stabilizes at Pre‑war Levels
European wholesale power is back to pre-war levels. Germany 1-year forward is at ~€88 per MWh, almost at par with the 2025 annual average of €87.3 per MWh. French and Great Britain power prices have given up most of the gains...
US Soy Crush Hits 2nd Highest March
🇺🇸NOPA U.S. crush, March 2026: ▪️226.161 mln bu of soybeans ▪️2nd highest for any month; +16% YOY ▪️Below avg trade est (229.978M) ▪️Soyoil stocks 2.039 bln lbs ▪️Below all trade estimates (avg 2.173B) ▪️Stocks at 13yr high for March https://t.co/eWZRN9BEi2
Shale Drilling Needs 18‑24‑month Price Certainty, Not Just High Oil
Higher oil price ≠ more shale drilling @WindsorSe7en What matters is 18–24 month price visibility The forward curve isn’t exactly screaming “drill”
CF Industries Prioritizes US Farmers Over Profitable Exports
One of the big US fertilizer companies, CF Industries, has said it's "foregoing" more profitable exports, in favor of keeping nitrogen at home for US farmers this spring: https://t.co/Ch3Nd83bNR https://t.co/JwPgaISLb6
US Petroleum Inventories Drop 9M Barrels, Crude Rally Stalls
US total commercial petroleum stocks fell by 9 million barrels last week. Crude was down by 0.9 MMbbl, gasoline by 6.3 MMbbl, and diesel by 3.2 MMbbl. Crude had been building faster than usual over the past month and appears to now...
Supply Gap Emerging as Last Hormuz Tankers Arrive
The tanker companies I spoke to last week confirmed that the last vessels that moved out of the Strait of Hormuz before the closure have reached their destinations at the end of March -- meaning the real supply gap is...
US Blockade Halts Iran's Oil Shipments to China, India
"The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has all but stopped Iran-controlled or dark-fleet tankers moving Iranian oil to importers mainly China and India." https://t.co/UXsjqOp2by
WTI Crude Jumps as Inventories Plummet and SPR Shrinks
JUST IN: WTI crude surged due to unexpected inventory drops across the energy sector and a massive Strategic Petroleum Reserve decline.
US Oil Production Hits Record High Amid Hormuz Blockade
CHART OF THE DAY: The barrel of last resort. US total crude oil and refined petroleum products have surged to an all-time high of >12.7 million b/d. (And further highs are likely over the next few weeks as everyone turns...
Brazil Conditions Rare Earth Deal Amid US‑China Competition
China and the US want rare earths. Brazil will share – on one condition Move comes as Washington locks US$565 million deal with Brazil’s only operating rare earth mine https://t.co/iQo2RjLACX via @scmpnews
Strait Reopen Unlikely; Production Recovery Years Away
"The strait could reopen quickly "It won't, but it could," says @gbrew24 "Unwinding production cuts, though, will take weeks if not longer" I'd say re-starting production will take months to years. There's physical & reservoir damage But mostly world demand is down &...
Cutting Qatar and UAE LNG Rewinds Market Five Years
Removing Qatar and UAE LNG supplies from the global market is like winding back the clock to the same supply levels as 2021, a 5-year setback. https://t.co/zj6XaND0zQ
Peace Talks Cut Oil Prices, War Premium Vanishes
$USO $WTI crude dropped from $104 to $93 on Apr 14 as peace talks advanced and the IEA slashed its oil demand outlook — expecting an 80kb/d contraction this year. War premium evaporating in real time. https://t.co/2vKFARGwFk
Governments Can't Borrow Their Way Out of Energy Crisis
One big and underappreciated difference between today's energy shock and the events of 2021-22 = Governments will not be able to borrow their way out of this one. Many governments borrowed heavily to fund subsidies, bailouts, and other measures to shield...
EU Allows Fuel, Fertilizer Price Flexibility Amid Iran Conflict
EU to give members leeway on fuel, fertilizer prices amid Iran war https://t.co/vDWd0WFUXl via @johnainger @AlbertoNardelli https://t.co/GeUMkkLivE
NYC Traders Set Global Coffee Prices From Small Room
☕️“The people who gather in this small room on the eighth floor of the New York Stock Exchange look like a group of middle-aged caffeine addicts. ... Their ratings help set U.S. futures-market prices for arabica, and in turn, the global...
January Gas Expected Below $4.40 in Q4
January Gas: Above $5.40 or Below $4.40 in 4Q? A year ago, the January 2027 natural gas future was roughly the same as the $4.60 per MMBtu on April 14, indicating the price to expect in 4Q. A move below the...
Copper Prices Overextended; Must Revisit 5‑Year Mean
Copper Peak Inklings? Stretched From 5-Year Mean Copper faces up-too-much risks near the start of 2Q. If the metal doesn't revisit its five-year moving average at $10,253 a ton, it would be the first year since 2021. Copper dropped 14% in...
Oil Doom Forecasts Wrong: Blockade Didn’t Spike Prices
One month ago, I wrote that oil price forecasts of $150 or $200 were fear-mongering and that a blockade was the way to go. We now have a blockade - an important and courageous step - and oil prices aren't...
Diesel Prices Near 2022 Peak, Close to 2008 High
Real diesel price now within 90 cents of the 2022 peak and $1.65 from the 2008 high (using monthly closing prices) @jkempenergy https://t.co/sCJ6D7sfbJ
Saudi Pipeline Restores, Red Sea Crude Loads Surge
Iranian coast blockade to lift April’s Red Sea crude loadings to new highs ▶️Saudi pipeline restored at the weekend following Iran attacks, minimising delays in exports from its west coast ▶️Red Sea loadings peaked in March and likely to surge in April...
Hormuz Closure Drives US Gulf VLGC Rates Above $100K
Hormuz closure pushes Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGC) rates in US Gulf over $100K per day ▶️Baltic Exchange’s US Gulf-Japan VLGC index is at $111,628 per day, its highest level since January 2024, during the Panama Canal drought crisis ▶️US Gulf-Europe VLGC...
US Diesel Prices Surge Post‑Iran War to 87th Percentile
U.S. RETAIL DIESEL prices including applicable taxes have averaged $5.61 per gallon so far this month up from $3.72 in February before the outbreak of the war with Iran and $3.52 in January. Inflation-adjusted prices have surged into the 87th...
Pakistan to Impose Evening Rolling Blackouts Amid LNG Shortage
Pakistan plans more rolling blackouts due to a fuel shortage 🇵🇰⚠️ Power supply will be suspended for two hours during the evenings when demand rises Pakistan hasn't received an LNG shipment since early March due to the war in the Middle...